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조혜민,오승언,여인권,Cho, Hye-Min,Oh, Sung-Un,Yeo, In-Kwon 한국통계학회 2007 응용통계연구 Vol.20 No.3
시계열자료를 분석하는데 있어 중요한 목적 중에 하나가 미래값에 대한 예측이다. 일반적으로 자기회귀이동평균모형에서는 백색잡음이 정규분포를 따른다는 가정 하에서 모수의 추론과 예측 및 예측구간의 추정이 이루어지고 있다. 그러나 자료가 이러한 가정을 만족하지 않는 경우, 자료를 가정에 맞게 변환시킨 후 분석하는 방법을 생각해 볼 수 있다. 이 논문에서는 변환된 자료를 분석하여 얻은 결과를 이용하여 본래의 척도에서의 미래값에 대한 예측구간을 추정하는 문제에 대해 알아본다. 제안하는 방법에서는 먼저 적절한 변환을 이용하여 자료를 정규가정을 만족하도록 변환시키고 변환된 자료를 이용하여 미래값에 대한 예측구간을 추정한 후, 역변환을 이용하여 예측구간을 추정한다. 이 논문에서는 시계열분석에서 모델링이 상대적으로 어려운 왜도의 문제를 해결하기 위해 Yeo-Johnson 변환을 중심으로 한 방법론을 소개한다. 모의실험 결과 제안된 방법에 의한 단측예측구간의 포함확률이 변환을 사용하지 않은 구간보다 명목수준에 가까운 것을 확인하였다. One of main aspects of time series analysis is to forecast future values of series based on values up to a given time. The prediction interval for future values is usually obtained under the normality assumption. When the assumption is seriously violated, a transformation of data may permit the valid use of the normal theory. We investigate the prediction problem for future values in the original scale when transformations are applied in ARMA models. In this paper, we introduce the methodology based on Yeo-Johnson transformation to solve the problem of skewed data whose modelling is relatively difficult in the analysis of time series. Simulation studies show that the coverage probabilities of proposed intervals are closer to the nominal level than those of usual intervals.
Persistence of Chinese Milk Vetch(Astragalus sinicus L.) Seed in Naturally Reseeded CMV-Rice Field
Sang-Yeol Kim,Sung-Hwan Oh,Jong-Hee Lee,Jun-Hyeon Cho,Kuk-Hyun Jeong,Ji-Yoon Lee,Sung-Tae Park,You-Chun Song,Un-Sang Yeo,Jeong-Il Kim,Hang-Won Kang 한국작물학회 2010 한국작물학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2010 No.04
Field experiments were conducted to investigate persistence of Chinese milk vetch(CMV) seed under naturally reseeded CMV-rice cropping systems during the period of 2007~2009. Persistence of the CMV seeds were evaluated in the naturally reseeded CMV-rice field on different tillage methods and soil depths based on the seed number recovered and the seed longevity in soil. Field observation in the naturally reseeded CMV rice field showed that as many as 917~2,185 CMV seeds m-2 were found from 0~15cm soil depth in the rotary tillage and 250~10,105 CMV seeds in minimum tillage rice cultivation in autumn. The recovered seed germinated 25~33%, 23~43% but still had high percentage of hard seed having 64~72% and 51~77%. Field experiment showed that the CMV seedling still emerged even after 2 years of continuous destructive killing of emerged CMV plant by rotary tillage in naturally reseeded CMV-rice field, indicating that CMV seeds persistent at least two years in rice field.
Mapping of the Reduced Culm Number Trait in Rice (Oryza sativa L.) rcn10(t) Mutant
Un-Sang Yeo,Jong-Hee Lee,Choon-Song Kim,Meong-Gi Jeon,Tae-Yong Oh,Chang-Deok Han,Mun-Sik Shin,Byeong-Geun Oh 한국육종학회 2008 한국육종학회지 Vol.40 No.3
In rice, tillering is an important trait determining yield. To study tillering at the agricultural and molecular aspects, we have examined a spontaneous rice mutant that showed reduction in the number of culms. The mutant was derived from a F6 line of the cross of Junambyeo*4 / IR72. It could produce, on average, 4 tillers per hill in the paddy field while wild-type plants usually have 15. Except the reduced culm numbers, they also show pale green phenotypes. The phenotypes of this mutant were co-segregated as the monogenic Mendelian ratio (χ2 = 0.002, p = 0.969). In order to locate a gene responsible for the rcn phenotype, the mutant with the japonica genetic background was crossed with Milyang21 of the indica background. Bulked segregant analysis was used for rapid determination of chromosomal location. Three SSR markers (RM551, RM8213, and RM16467) on chromosome 4 were genetically associated with the mutant phenotype. Each of the 217 F2 plants was genotyped with simple sequence length polymorphisms. The data showed that RM16572 on chromosome 4 was the closest marker that showed perfect co-segregation among the F2 population. We suggest the new rcn gene studied here name as rcn10t because there was no report which exhibit a rcn phenotype with a pleiotropic effect of pale green (chlorophyll deficiency), and mapped at same position on chromosome 4.