신경망분석을 이용한 축구경기 승,패 예측모형 개발 -2006독일월드컵 대회를 중심으로-

김주학 ( Joo Hak Kim ),노갑택 ( Gap Taik Ro ),박종성 ( Jong Sung Park ),이원희 ( Won Hi Lee ) 한국스포츠정책과학원(구 한국스포츠개발원) 2007 체육과학연구 Vol.18 No.4

본 연구는 축구 경기 기록자료를 활용하여 축구경기의 승·패를 예측할 수 있는 모형을 개발하는 데 있다. 활용된 경기기록 자료는 2006년 독일 월드컵대회에 나타난 축구경기 전체 64경기의 FIFA TSG공식자료와 M대학교 경기분석 프로그램을 활용하여 산출된 경기기록 자료를 사용하였다. 연구기법으로는 최근에 예측연구에 많이 활용되고 있는 신경망 분석을 이용하여 예측율을 확인 하였으며, 예측율은 2개의 예측모형으로 분류하여 결과를 산출하였다. 구체적인 내용 및 방법은 다음과 같다. 2006년 독일월드컵에 나타난 기록 관련 요인 중 경기 내적요인을 중심으로 축구 경기의 승·패와 관련한 요인을 탐색하고 2006년 독일월드컵 전 경기에 대한 비디오녹화를 실시하였으며, 녹화된 비디오를 통하여 기록요인에 대하여 실시간 축구 경기분석 프로그램을 활용, 승·패와 관련한 기록요인을 점수화하였다. 점수화된 기록요인은 점유율, 성공률 관련 등 여러 가지 요인이 있었으나 실제 경기에서 예측을 할 수 있는 요인을 전문가와 회의를 통하여 선정하고 선정된 요인을 바탕으로 신경망 분석방법을 이용하여 축구경기 승·패 예측 모형을 개발하여 예측율을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전문가회의를 통하여 기록화 할 수 있는 기록자료 요인을 중심으로 2006년 독일월드컵 전체 경기에 대하여 축구 경기분석 프로그램을 통하여 점수화하여 실제 다양한 요인이 내재된 경기에 대하여서도 내용분류를 통하여 점수화할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 둘째, 점수화된 경기 내적요인을 중심으로 신경망분석 방법을 통하여 축구경기에 대하여서도 승·패를 예측할 수 있음을 확인하였으며 타 종목에 대하여서도 실현 가능함을 확인할 수 있었다. 셋째, 축구경기의 승패에 대하여 87.5%의 예측율을 보임으로써 축구경기의 요인에 대한 중요도를 평가할 수 있는 연구의 기초를 확립하였다고 판단된다. This study was on purpose to investigate the various factors of soccer games into inner factors and classify performance factors objectively and scientifically using a soccer game analysis program and develop a model which can predict the result of the soccer games using the Neural NetWork Analysis that stands on the game graded record. The game recorded data was collected from the FIFA TSG official record and the data which was gained using a game analysis program. It has searched the factors related the game results which were focused on the game inner factors of the related factors in 2006 World cup games and recorded the whole games of 2006 World cup games, graded the recording factors related the win/lose using the video and the real time game analysis program with numbers. The graded recording factors with numbers were several; ball possession, completion, and so on. However, through the meeting with Neural NetWork Analysis, professionals prediction related factors which can predict in the real games were selected. And a soccer game win/lose prediction model was developed using the selected factors and Neural NetWork Analysis. It also was compared with the preceding researches in documents record studies. Followings are main results of this study; First, It was confirmed that it is available to grade the real factors in the games which include various factors through the professionals` meetings which implemented the analysis the 2006 Worldcup games and it was focused on the recording factors. Second, the graded recording inner-factors make it possible to predict the soccer game results using the Neural NetWork Analysis method. It was verified that it can be effective in other sports also. Third, the rate of predicting the soccer games` results was 87.5%. It is possible to understand this study contributes on the basis of the importancy of soccer game factors.

서울의 PPNG 발생 빈도(1991-1992)

김재홍,윤기범,박평원,김영진,전경민,김영태,김중환,곽호,구상완,송민석,유옥,지혜구,김동원,문상은,박영립,정승호,성범진,성순제,엄주용,황정열,이기홍,이주협,전태진 대한화학요법학회 1994 대한화학요법학회지 Vol.12 No.1

The prevalence of PPNG among pretreated gonorrhea cases isolated at the STD clinic of Choong-Ku Public Health Center in Seoul has been studied and reported annually since 1981. In 1991, 123 strains of N.gonorrhoeae were isolated, among which 58(47.1%) were PPNG. In 1992, 98 starains of N.gonorrhoeae were isolated, among which 51(52.0%) were PPNG. In all, 109(49.3%) strains were found to be PPNG among 221 strains isolated between 1991-1992. The prevalence of PPNG in Seoul showed increased tendency till 1989, thereafter, it has been stationary or slightly decreasing.

국소성 분절성 사구체 경화증의 완전 관해 후 발병한 IgA 신병증 1예

임현민,김현정,박민석,주혜원,최원,김상현,박원도 인제대학교 2006 仁濟醫學 Vol.27 No.-

We report a rare case of primary glomerular disease with IgA nephropathy in a 43-year old man. 7-years ago, he was diagnosed with minimal change nephrotic syndrome. After treatment with steroid for 1-year, azotemia and proteinuria were improved. But, nephrotic range proteinuria was relapsed within 1 week after cessation of steroid. Renal biopsy revealed focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, and achived a complete remission with the use of steroids and cyclophosphamide. Then, he was followed up with normal renal function for 4-years. On admission, the patient showed generalized edema and marked proteinuria. In 3rd renal biopsy, mesangial proliferative glomerulonephritis with diffuse global sclerosis was observed. Electron microscopy showed electron-dense deposit on the mesangium with slight mesangial proliferation, and immunofluoroscence microscopy showed granular deposits of IgA and IgM. These features were consistent with IgA nephropathy, different from results of previous biopsies. The pathogenesis of IgA nephropathy occurred with primary FSGS is not clear, as well as treatment. Now, proteinuria is improving, steroid and cyclophosphamide are probably useful for the disease.

Multiple myeloma 환자에서 Bortezomib치료 후 발생한 마비성 장폐색증 1례

김준영,이원식,손창학,박성길,진한영,박석주,조영완,정은욱,강명주,박정하,주영돈 인제대학교 2006 仁濟醫學 Vol.27 No.-

Bortezomib is the first clinically available proteasome inhibitor that is clinically effective in the treatment of multiple myeloma. A proteasome inhibitor acts through multiple mechanisms to arrest tumor growth, tumor spread, and angiogenesis. The main adverse effects of bortezomib are gastrointestinal symptoms, cytopenia, fatigue, and peripheral neuropathy. To date, severe paralytic ileus has not been reported as a toxic effect of bortezomib treatment in multiple myeloma. Bortezomib is a novel agent that has only been used clinically for 30 months, so a need exists to further evaluate its toxicity. We report a case of grade Ⅲ (NCI CTCAE v3.0) or grade Ⅳ(SWOG toxicity criteria) paralytic ileus in a 65-year-old man with relapsed multiple myeloma who underwent one cycle of single-agent bortezomib treatment scheduled in a 21-day cycle (1.3 mg/㎥ as a single i.v. bolus on days 1, 4, 8, and 11).

부산.경남지역의 일부 고등학교 교사들의 물리치료에 대한 인식도 조사

김지원,박상현,주성희,김용권,안덕현,Kim, JI-Won,Park, Sang-Hyeon,Joo, Sung-Hui,Kim, Yong-Kwon,Ahn, Duck-Hyun 대한물리치료과학회 2003 대한물리치료과학회지 Vol.10 No.2

This study randomly chose 10 humanity high schools, which are located in Busan and KyoungNam province. We then examined the recognition rate of physical therapy among 378 teachers who were and still are working in the schools. 1. The recognition grade of physical therapeutics between men and women was significantly different with results of 80.7% of men and 69.7% of women(p<0.05). In the case of experiencing physical therapy, 83.6% of people said they knew the physical therapeutics and in the case of the opposite side, the result was also significantly different with a result of 67.8%(p<0.05). 2. We ranked the people on how much they knew about the physical therapeutics among men and women. With men, the actual experience of physical therapeutic came before what they heard from other people. In the case of women, what they heard from other people came first and the actual experience of physical therapeutic came after. According to the public information from Inje University, the recognition grade is recorded in the 3rd grade department as 21.5% while in the case of experiencing treatment from a physical therapist, the result was 39.1%. In the other department (the 1st grade department), what men and women heard from mass media was recorded at 17.5% and what they heard from other people, it was recorded at 33.8%(p<0.05). 3. The research about the recognition of academic ability of being a physical therapist was that 55.6% of teachers thought that 3-year-college was the best, which made the results different from the recognition grade of the experience of education(p<0.05). 4. In the recognition grade of physical therapeutics, there were significantly differences from 50.2% of men and 45.2% of women were expecting about 1mil ion won to 1.99million won. In case of 25.2% of people who have experience less than 15years at work, they expected about 2million to 2.99million won. The figures were higher than 10.1% of people who have experiences over 15years. About the recognition grade of physical therapists social level in the future is 48.8% of people who had experienced of physical therapy and 63.8% of people who never had experienced of it said it would be better in the future. From these results, the recognition about physical therapeutics and the view of its social status are optimistic and they know well about the level of academic ability of physical therapists. On the other hand, most teachers don't know exactly about physical therapists work. So we have to inform them aggressively for enhancing the recognition of physical therapy because high school students are well affected by their teachers when they face their future or major in university.

N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl) nitrosamine에 의한 흰쥐 방광암 발생과정에서 c-erbB-2 종양단백, 증식성 핵항원(PCNA)과 Apoptosis의 평가

박원주 외 중앙대학교 의과대학 의학연구소 2005 中央醫大誌 Vol.30 No.1

c-erbB-2 is a proto-oncogene that closely related to the epidermal growth factor receptor and plays an important role in carcinogenesis. Apoptosis and cell proliferation play a major roles in chemical multistage carcinogenesis. This study analyzed the status of c-erbB-2, apoptosis, and proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) during N-butyl-N-(4-hydroxybutyl) nitrosamine (BBN) induced rat urinary bladder carcinogenesis. For sequential histopathological findings of urinary bladder, 0.05% BBN was administered to male rats in 30 weeks. To detect protein expressions of c-erbB-2 and PCNA, immunohistochemical stains were used. Also apoptosis identified morphologically and TdT-mediated dUTP-biotin nick end labeling (TUNEL) were used. On histopathological findings, urothelial cell hyperplasia was appeared at 5 weeks, followed by urothelial papilloma at 10 weeks, and superfical urothelial carcinoma was found at 20 weeks after BBN administration. After 30 weeks of BBN administration, invasive carcinoma was developed in 40% (4/10) among the all 10 cancer rats. The immunohistochemical stains for c-erbB-2 did not expressed in normal urinary bladder. Overexpression of c-erbB-2 were observed along the cell membrane in urothelial cell hyperplasia and papilloma. Reduced expression of c-erbB-2 were found in both superficial and invasive carcinomas. The PCNA and apoptotic labeling indices were very low in normal bladder epithelia. With the lesions progressed from urothelial cell hyperplasia to papilloma to urothelial carcinoma, the PCNA and apoptotic labeling indices significantly increased (P<0.01). There was no correlation between PCNA, apoptosis indices and c-erbB-2 expression. The present results indicate that c-erbB-2 may participates the early stage of carcinogenesis and hyperproliferative cells might be more susceptible to apoptosis. Also, the numbers of the PCNA and apoptosis could be useful markes for evaluating the risk of malignant transformation of transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder.

미세혈관 협심증 환자의 임상상 및 지표에 관한 연구

박상호,온영근,김현정,이태훈,길효욱,김현건,박수진,송해정,한대희,방덕원,신원용,이내희,김성구,권영주 순천향의학연구소 2003 Journal of Soonchunhyang Medical Science Vol.9 No.1

Background : Microvascular angina or syndrom X is heterogenous and encompasses different pathogenetic entities. Several studies suggest that microvascular angina have good prognosis and occurs predominantly in postmenopausal women. Lipoprotein (a), total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, homocystein, CRP and fibrinogen are the independent risk factor of acute coronary syndrome and are the chief underlying cause of atherosclerosis. We investigated clinical characteristics and markers in patients with microvascular angina. Methods : We studies 23 patients diagnosed with microvascular angina and 16 control group with negative treadmill exercise test and no significant coronary angiogram. We investigated clinical characteristics in patients group and evaluated symptom during a follow-up period of 4.2± 2.5 month. Exercise time in treadmill exercise test was compared between patients and control group. We assessed the level of markers, such as lipoprotein (a), total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, homocystein, CRP and ESR in two groups. Results : There is no difference in age between two groups. Patients group had a tendency to increase in female, hypertension, DM, and smoking history, but there was no statistical significance difference. Exercise duration time was significantly decreased in patients with microvascular angina (p<0,05). Serum lipoprotein (a), total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholestrol, Triglyceride, ESR, Fibrinogen and Homocystein value were no significant difference between microvascular angina and control group. Only CRP was significantly high in patients with microvascular angina (p<0.05). Conclusion : There was no statistical significance difference in age, sex, hypertension, DM and smoking history between two groups but patients group had a tendency to increase the prevalence in hypertension, DM and smoking history, female. Also, Symptom improvement and disappearance in follow-up was presented in 11 patients of 19(57.9%). Exercise tolerance was worse in patients group than control group. CRP value was significantly higher in patients group than control group. There was no statistical significance difference in lipoprotein (a), total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triglyceride, homocystein, ESR and Fibrinogen between two groups.

Eethyl benezylidencyanoacetate 유도체에 대한 thiophenol 첨가 반응의 속도론적 연구

朴茂淳,金文執,崔元植,黃善岩,孟柱煬 순천향대학교 1991 논문집 Vol.14 No.1

Reaction of benzaldehyde derivatives with ethylacetate afforded ethylbenzylidenecyanoacetate. Especially, the crystal structure of ethyl p-methoxybenzylidenecyanoacetate were demonstrated by X-ray diffrection method. The crystal structure is only exist in E-form. The kinetic studies on the mechanism of nucleophilic addition of thiophenol to ethyl benzylidenecyanoacetate have been investigated by UV-spectrophotomery and the rate equation which can be applied over wide pH range was obtained. From the rate equation, effect of generalbase and substituent, the fellowing reaction proposed. Below pH 3.0, thiophenol added to the double bond, while above pH9.0 thiophenoxide ion added to the double bond. In the range of pH from 3.0 to 9.0, these reaction occurred competitively.

퍼즐 게임 제작 사례로 본 Applet 분석

강주성, 박동원, 안성옥, 김수균 배재대학교 공학연구소 2013 공학논문집 Vol.15 No.1

Using features in the Java Applet game is played on the screen, and web production. Linked using Applet to Database, and will save the record. It also makes the stored data with Statistics screen. What is the problem with him, looking to find ways to solve. For alternative methods are discussed.

재요청을 고려한 버스중재프로토콜의 효율성 분석

박준석,이원주,전창호 漢陽大學校 工學技術硏究所 1997 工學技術論文集 Vol.6 No.1

Efficiency of bus arbitration scheme is modeled to analyze and compare five known arbitration protocols for single-bus multiprocessor system. The analytical model describes average access time as a measure of efficiency and takes resubmitted requests into account, amending contradiction of previous assumption that bus requests in each cycle are independent of those of previous cycles. The analytical results obtained from our model show that the efficiency of the equal priority protocol is as good as that of the rotating priority protocol.