Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

한국인 직무 스트레스 측정도구의 개발 및 표준화

장세진,고상백,강동묵,김성아,강명근,이철갑,정진주,조정진,손미아,채창호,김정원,김정일,김형수,노상철,박재범,우종민,김수영,김정연,하미나,박정선,이경용,김형렬,공정옥,김인아,김정수,박준호,현숙정,손동국 大韓産業醫學會 2005 대한직업환경의학회지 Vol.17 No.4

Background and Purposes: Over the past three decades, numerous studies performed in Korea have reported that job stress is a determinant risk factor for chronic diseases and work disability. Every society has its own culture and occupational climate particular to their organizations, and hence experiences different occupational stress. An occupational stress measurement tool therefore needs to be developed to estimate it objectively. The purpose of this study is to develop and standardize the Korean Occupational Stress Scale (KOSS) which is considered to be unique and specific occupational stressors in Korean employees. Subjects and Methods: Data were obtained from the National Study for Development and Standardization of Occupational Stress (NSDSOS Project: 2002-2004). A total of 12,631 employees from a nationwide sample proportional to the Korean Standard Industrial Classification and the Korean Standard Occupational Classification were administered. The KOSS was developed for 2 years (2002-2004). In the first year, we collected 255 items from the most popular job stress measurement tools such as JCQ, ERI, NIOSH and OSI, and 44 items derived from the a qualitative study (depth interview). Forty-three items of KOSS, in the second year, were retained for use in the final version of the KOSS by using Delphi and factor analysis. Items were scored using conventional 1-2-3-4 Likert scores for the response categories. Results: We developed eight subscales by using factor analysis and validation process: physical environment (3 items), job demand (8 items), insufficient job control (5 items), interpersonal conflict (4 items), job insecurity (6 items), organizational system (7 items), lack of reward (6 items), and occupational climate (4 items). Together they explained 50.0% of total variance. Internal consistency alpha scores were ranged from 0.51 to 0.82. Twenty-four items of the short form of the KOSS (KOSS-SF) were also developed to estimate job stress in the work setting. Because the levels of the subscales of occupational stress were gender dependent, gender-specific standard norms for both the 43-item full version and the 24-item short form using a quartile for the subscales of KOSS were presented. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that KOSS might be an appropriate measurement scale to estimate occupational stress of Korean employees. Further and more detailed study needs to be conducted to improve the validity of this scale.

Finding key vulnerable areas by a climate change vulnerability assessment

Kim, Ho Gul,Lee, Dong Kun,Jung, Huicheul,Kil, Sung-Ho,Park, Jin Han,Park, Chan,Tanaka, Riwako,Seo, Changwan,Kim, Ho,Kong, Wooseok,Oh, Kyusik,Choi, Jinyong,Oh, Young-Ju,Hwang, Gangseok,Song, Chang-Keun Springer Netherlands 2016 Natural hazards Vol.81 No.3

<P>Extreme climate events such as typhoons, heat waves, and floods have increased in frequency with climate change. Many municipalities within the Republic of Korea (ROK) have experienced damage from these events, necessitating countermeasures. Vulnerability assessment has been suggested in the implementation of a national plan for reducing damage resulting from climate change. Thus, in this study, we assess the vulnerability of the ROK and identify key vulnerable municipalities in support of the national adaptation plan. We create a framework for assessing the vulnerability of all 232 municipalities of the ROK with respect to 32 items in 7 fields. The framework regards decision makers' comprehension and availability of data as important factors. We assess the vulnerability index of each municipality by using variables of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptation capacity. The weights of variables are determined by the Delphi method. We used the representative concentration pathways 8.5 climate scenario to reflect future climate exposure for the vulnerability assessment. From the analysis, vulnerability maps are prepared for the 32 items of 7 fields, and key vulnerable municipalities are identified by aggregating the maps. The distribution of vulnerable municipalities changes with the future climate conditions. These maps provide a scientific and objective basis for the ROK government to establish adaptation plans and allocate resources. The ROK government can utilize the results to identify the characteristics of highly vulnerable areas, and municipalities can use the results as a basis for requesting support from the national government.</P>

서울의 Penicillinase Producing Neisseria Gonorrhoeae 발생빈도(1996)

김재홍,황동규,전재홍,김윤석,김중환,김용준,이창균,임동진,김현수,조창근,김경문,박상훈,전우형,김희성,이호정,차명수,김갑형,김형석,김석우,황지환,박병순,권오상,이민수,송기훈,성소영,이인섭,부태성 대한화학요법학회 1999 대한화학요법학회지 Vol.17 No.2

Background : In recent years, gonorrhea has been panedemic and remains one of the most commom STDs in the world, especially in developing countries. Objective & Methods: For the detection of a more effective therapeutic regimen and assessing the prevalence of PPNG, we have been trying to study the patients who have visited the VD Clinic of Choong-Ku Public Health Center in Seoul since 1980 by means of the chromogenic cephalosporin method. Results: In 1996, 139 strains of N. gonorrhoeae were isolated, among which 53(39.0%) were PPNG. Conclusion: Our results suggests that after a peak of 74.3% in 1993, the prevalence of PPNG in Seoul is gradually declining.

흰쥐에서 사염화 탄소(CCl4)에 의한 간섬유화의 유도

김병호,이정일,김효종,김영관,장린,동석호,장영운,송일한 대한소화기학회 1992 대한소화기학회지 Vol.24 No.6

Experimental model of hepatic fibrosis is importent contributions to the understanding of cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying excessive accumulation of extracellular matrix in the liver. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl₄) is one of the oldest and most widely used toxin for experimental induction of hepatic fibrosis in laboratory animals. In this study, We intended to induce the hepatic fibrosis in the rat by the intragastric CCl₄/ phenobarbtal treatment once a week for 12 weeks and the administration dosage of CCl₄ in each week was determined by the daily body weight change. Liver function and histologic change were examined just after 12-week treatment in group Ia (9 rats, Phenobarbital treatment only) and II (18 rats, CCl₄/phenobarbital treatment), and liver function and the irreversibility o histologic change were examined 12 weeks after 12-week treatment in group Ib (9 rats, phenobarbital treatment only) and III (18 rats, CCl₄/phenobarbital treatment). 1) Death rate after 12-week treatment was 11% in group Ⅰ, 56% in group Ⅱ and 50% in group Ⅲ. and the highest rate was at 1 week. that is 33 o each in group Ⅱ and Ⅲ. 2) Tatal protein, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase and portal venous pressure were significantly increased in group Ⅱ compared with that in group Ⅰa, but it was only portal venous pressure that was increased in group Ⅲ than in group Ⅰb, 3) The gross finding of micronodular change was shown in 88% of group Ⅱ, 71% of group Ⅲ, but none of group Ⅰ. The microscopic finding of hepatic fibrosis was found in all of group Ⅱ and Ⅲ, but none of group Ⅰ. The severe form of hepatic fibrosis suggesting cirrhosis was found in group Ⅱ and Ⅲ, 12% and 29% respectively. In our study, mortality rate was high within 1 week after CCl₄ treatment, which resulted in half survival rate after 12-week treatment. We also experienced the loin rate of severe fibrotic changes in surviving rats. In the future, in order to produce a severe irreversible fibrotic change with low mortality in inducing hepatic fibrosis with CCl₄/phenobarbital treatment in the rat, adequate detemination of the initial dose of CCl₄ and appropriate choice of administration route of CCl₄ were thought to be needed.

Ischemia-Related Changes in Galanin Expression in the Dentate Hilar Region after Transient Forebrain Ischemia in Gerbils

LEE, Hyeon Yong,HWANG, In Koo,KIM, Dae Ho,KIM, Jung Hwa,KIM, Chang Ho,LIM, Beong Ou,KANG, Tae-Cheon,BANG, Kyung Hwan,SEONG, Nak Sul,LEE, Hak Ju,KIM, Jong Dai,WON, Moo Ho Japanese Association for Laboratory Animal Science 2005 EXPERIMENTAL ANIMALS Vol.54 No.1

<P>Although galanin (GAL) protects hippocampal neurons from ischemic damage, no study has examined ischemia-related changes in endogenous GAL in the hippocampal dentate gyrus. We investigated the chronological changes of GAL, well-known as the potassium channel opener, expression in the dentate gyrus at various times after 5 min of transient forebrain ischemia in gerbils. A few GAL-immunoreactive (IR) neurons were found in the polymorphic layer of the sham-operated group. Three hours after ischemia-reperfusion, the pattern of GAL immunoreactivity was similar to that of the sham-operated group and the number of GAL-IR neurons and immunoreactivity were highest 12 h after ischemic insult. At this time, GAL-IR neurons in the polymorphic layer showed strong GAL immunoreactivity. Thereafter, GAL-IR neurons and immunoreactivity significantly decreased in the dentate hilar region. Four days after ischemic insult, GAL-IR neurons were not detectable. In addition, the results of a Western blot study showed a pattern of GAL expression similar to the immunohistochemical changes. GAL protein content also was highest 12 h after ischemia. In conclusion, the increased expression of endogenous GAL in the dentate gyrus after ischemia is related to response to the ischemic damage.</P>

Rat의 복강내에 투여한 5-fluorouracil-polyglycolic acid 제형이 장기에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

강대영,송규상,최정목,노승무,정경수,오정연,김진향,양준묵,최선웅,이진호,조준식,민병무,김용백,김창식,박근성,김승영,김학용,인현빈 충남대학교 의과대학 지역사회의학연구소 1998 충남의대잡지 Vol.25 No.1

For more effective intraperitoneal chemotherapy, the authers made 5-fluorouracil-polyglycolic acid composite disks(FU-PGA disks) with 5-fluorouracil and polyglycolic acid, a biodegradable polymer. We inserted the FU-PGA disk into the peritoneal cavites of Sprague-Dawley male rats, the control and three experimental groups; one FU-PGA disk insert group(300mg/kg), two FU-PGA disk insert group(600mg/kg), and three FU-PGA disk insert group(900mg/kg). The control group received a similar number of PGA disk inserts. A pharmacokinetic study was performed to measure the 5-fluorouracil concentration in the peritoneal fluid, blood, and tissues(liver, kidney and heart) at 24 hours, 72hours and 168 hours after insertion of the FU-PGA disk. Light and electron microscopic studies were done. The results were as follows: 1) The number of white blood cells and platelets decreased after FU-PGA insertion. The degree was proportional to the duration and amounts inserted. The change in the number of red blood cells varied slightly. 2) Light microscopically, slight changes were noted at 168 hours in the 3 disk insert group (900mg/kg). Mild fatty change and hepatocyte degeneration around the central veins of the liver were noted, with vacuolar degeneration in the proximal convoluted tubules of the kidney. 3) Electron microscopically,the liver showed focal increases of lipid droplets in the hepatocytes, and irregular nuclear membrane with focal nucleolar segregation of the fibrillar and granular elements. Also the double membranous structure of the hepatocytes and Kupffer cells was widened with bleb formation. The kidney showed wide separation of the nuclear double membrane in the proximal convoluted tubular cells and mesangial cells, with vacuolation and myelin figure formation in the mitochondria of the proximal convoluted tubular cells, at 72 hours and 168 hours in the 2 to 3 FU-PGA insert groups. The heart showed focal loss of cristae,vacuolation and myelin figure formation in the mitochondria of the 2 to 3 FU-PGA insert groups. In conclusion, despite the large amont of FU-PGA inserted, the histopathological changes in the liver, kidney and heart were slight, and consonant with the very low amount of 5-fluorouracil concentrations detected in the liver, kidney and heart. The above results suggest that the FU-PGA composite can serve as a new device for releasing drugs in a controlled manner and easily targeted to intraperitoneal organs. This device can improve the efficacy of intraperitoneal chemotherapy for gastric cancer.

만성 두부외상 환자에서 99mTc - HMPAO Brain SPECT의 임상적 유용성

서정호(Jung Ho Suh),김동익(Dong Ik Kim),정태섭(Tae Sub Chung),이종두(Jong Doo Lee),박창윤(Chang Yoon Park),정진일(Jin Ill Chung),김영수(Young Soo Kim) 대한핵의학회 1992 핵의학 분자영상 Vol.26 No.1

N/A Minima1 deterioration of cerebral perfusion or microanatomical changes were undetectable on conventional Brain CT or MRI. So evaluation of focal functional changes of the brain parenchyme is essential in chronic head injury patients, who did not show focal anatomical changes on these radiological studies. However, the patients who had longstanding neurologic sequelae following head injury, there had been no available imaging modalities for evaluating these patients precisely. Therefore we tried to detect the focal functional changes on the brain parenchyme using Tc-99m-HMPAO Brain SPECT on the patients of chronic head injuries. Twenty three patients who had suffered from headache, memory dysfunction, personality change and insomnia lasting more than six months following head injury were included in our cases, which showed no anatomical abnormalities on Brain CT or MRI. At first they underwent psychological test whether the symptoms were organic or not. Also we were able to evaluate the cerebral perfusion changes with Tc-99m-HMPAO Brain SPECT in 22 patients among the 23, which five patients were focal and 17 patients were nonfocally diffuse perfusion changes. Thus we can predict the perfusion changes such as local vascular deterioration or functional defects using Tc-99m-HMPAO Brain SPECT in the patients who had suffered from post-traumatic sequelae, which changes were undetectable on Brain CT or MRI.

회계이익변경에 대한 단순투자자의 반응

김지홍 ( Jee Hong Kim ),장진호 ( Jin Ho Chang ),여은정 ( Eun Jung Yeo ) 한국회계학회 2004 會計學硏究 Vol.29 No.3

본 연구는 1998년 초부터 2003년 6월말까지 증권거래소의 전자공시시스템에 회계변경을 공시한 상장기업을 표본으로 하여, 단순투자자의 비율이 높은 기업에서의 회계이익변경에 대한 주가반응을 살펴보았다. 연구 결과, 단순투자자(naive investor)의 대용치로 사용된 개인소액투자자의 지분이 높은 기업에서 회계변경으로 인한 보고이익의 증가가 높을수록 양(+)의 주가반응이 존재함을 발견하였다. 이 결과는 실증회계이론에서 제시한 보고이익의 증가가 계약비용을 감소시키는 효과를 통제한 후에도 유의하였다. 반면, 전문투자자(sophisticated investor)의 대용치로 사용된 기관투자자 및 외국인투자자의 지분이 높은 기업에서는 회계변경으로 인한 이익증가에 유의적인 시장반응이 관찰되지 않았다. 본 연구의 결과는 한계투자자의 전문성에 따라 회계정보에 대한 주가반응이 상이할 수 있다는 확장된 기능적 고착가설(extended functional fixation hypothesis)을 지지하는 결과이다. This study empirically examines whether there is price reaction of the accounting changing companies which have high rate of unsophisticated investors` holdings. That is, this study will analyze whether there is different response to reported earnings changes by accounting change between unsophisticated and sophisticated investors. Most significantly, this study observes the cumulative abnormal returns on the time of disclosing to the accounting change. The final sample consists of 96 listed on the Korean Stock Exchange and disclosed by an Electronic Disclosure System over the period of 1998 to June, 2003. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, there is positive relation between price reaction of individual investors proxied by naive investors and the reported earnings by accounting changes. This means that unsophisticated investors react naively on the increase of earnings by accounting changes. Second, there is no positive relation between the price reaction of institutional or foreign investors proxied by sophisticated investors and the increasing earnings by accounting changes. This means that sophisticated investors don`t react naively in the increase of earnings by accounting changes. These results supports the extended functional fixation hypothesis that price reactions of the accounting information can be varied according to the marginal investor`s expertise.

급성 췌장염의 시대적 변화

김배영(Bai Young Kim),김효종(Hyo Jong Kim),정형근(Hyung Keun Chung),김영관(Young Kwan Kim),동석호(Seok Ho Dong),김병호(Byung Ho Kim),이정일(Jung Il Lee),장영운(Young Woon Chang),장린(Rin Chang) 대한내과학회 1993 대한내과학회지 Vol.45 No.5

N/A Background: According to the rapid changes in social environment such as increasing alcohol consumption and the marked improvement in diagnostic technique, we expect that there have been major changes in various aspects of acute pancreatitis during the recent 12 years in Korea. Methods: The medical records of 317 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed from 1980 through 1992 were reviewed about clinical, laboratory and radiological findings in the three different time period. Results: 1) There has been an increasing incidence in male sex about three folds. 2) There has been an increasing trends in the duration of hospitalization. 3) A significant increase was observed in the proportion of patients with alcoholic pancreatitis in the three different time period; 26.9%, 45.7%, 50.7% respectively. 4) The complication rates have been slightly increased in the three different time period; 46.3%, 47.1%, 59.1% respectively. But, the type of complications has not been changed. 5) There is increasing severity in non-gallstone group, but no significant differences in gallstone group. There is a declining trends in the number of patients with muld severity index, but increasing trend in the number of patients with moderate severity index in non-gallstone group. 6) There was no significant differences in mortality rate. Conclusions: There has been major changes in the etiology ans severity of acute pancreatitis from 1980 through 1992. Especially, significant increase in the proportion of patients with alcoholic pancreatitis was observed in the three differnt time period. These results might be due to socioeconomic changes.