이례적인 현상으로서의 KEDO : 핵확산금지에 대한 제도적인 접근방법 An Institutional Approach to Nonproliferation

홍소일(洪素逸) 한국전략문제연구소 2003 전략연구 Vol.- No.29

The main objectives of this article are as follows: first, it argues that KEDO is a unique approach to preventing nuclear proliferation. Second, it demonstrates that KEDO is a semi-institutionalized multilateral security organization in Northeast Asia. Third, it examines whether KEDO has been successful in fulfilling its objectives of freezing and eventually dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons program, stopping North Korea from withdrawing from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and inducing North Korea to comply with IAEA safeguards. Finally, it tests whether KEDO can be replicated in other cases of nuclear proliferation. In other words, can it serve as a model in other regions? The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) is an anomaly. It is an anomaly not only from a U.S. global nonproliferation approach perspective, but also as an international organization. Why did the US. nonproliferation approach to North Korea not result in sanctions as in the cases of India and Pakistan, or in war as in the case of Iraq? Why did U.S. efforts to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions lead to a multilateral solution unlike the nuclear cases of Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus that were settled on a bilateral basis? What is KEDO‘s organizational character? Is KEDO an international financial consortium as characterized in the Geneva Agreed Framework, a technical/energy organization or a security institution? Finally, contrary to common wisdom that there is no "structured" or "principled"multilateral security organization in Northeast Asia, this article will argue that KEDO has served as a semi-institutionalized multilateral security organization in the Northeast Asian region. With the advent of the second nuclear situation in North Korea, KEDO currently stands at the crossroads of either suspending or terminating its project altogether. Since the end of the Cold War, the emergence of second-generation proliferators has become one of the major threats to international peace and stability. In general, U.S.-led international responses to proliferation have been based on the threat or the actual use of force. If the United States opted to forego the use of force and settle the problem peacefully, the settlement usually resulted in the form of a bilateral solution. Despite the growing number of new-generation proliferators, KEDO marks the first case in which multilateral efforts have been organized to deal with a specific nuclear proliferation problem on the demand side. It is the first multilateral organization whose mission is to deliver inducements to the proliferating state, North Korea. This article, therefore, examines U.S. nonproliferation responses to Iraq, India, Pakistan, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus to demonstrate the uniqueness of KEDO. It will also test whether KEDO can be replicated in South Asia where there has been a clear lack of an organized nonproliferation response. This article will argue that nonproliferation efforts in the case of North Korea led to the creation of KEDO because of the following causal factors: the security environment surrounding the region, as well as the Korean peninsula, U.S. policies towards North Korea, and the characteristics of the North Korean regime. The strategic environment as well as U.S. policies towards North Korea made multi-level diplomacy inevitable in the context of the North Korean nuclear problem. These are the causal factors that led to the unique nonproliferation response of KEDO. Because of the unique security environment surrounding the Korean peninsula and South-North Korean relations, "multi-level diplomacy" is unavoidable for settling such major issues as nuclear nonproliferation. Multi-level diplomacy is a complicated process of "two-level games" of diplomacy and domestic politics, involving multiple players on the state, bureaucratic, and individual levels, as well as involving international organizations. Multi-level diplomacy, however, complicates the diplomatic process and constrains policy options for the states involved. The characteristics of the state are especially important in the area of weapons of mass destruction. Depending on who has nuclear weapons, the level of threat perception changes. North Korea's decision to withdraw from the international agreement on nonproliferation and its nuclear development program not only posed a serious threat to South Korea, the United States, and other neighboring countries, but also to the stability of the nonproliferation regime. Even after almost eight years since KEDOs inception, there is no consensus yet on how to characterize the organizational type of KEDO. Policy-makers and international relations scholars diverge in their views in that some characterize KEDO as an international financial consortium, while others see it as a confidence-building measure, a technical or energy organization, or an institution. The second objective is, therefore, to demonstrate that KEDO is a semi-institutionalized multilateral security organization and not just a service or a technical organization, providing energy to North Korea. In general, KEDO is regarded as a technical or energy organization, performing a service function of supplying light-water reactors and heavy fuel oil to North Korea. Despite the importance and uniquenessof its tasks, KEDO has not received much attention as an international organization, let alone as a security institution. In those cases when it did, KEDO only appeared in newspaper headlines when the North Korean regime engaged in provocative acts, violating the spirit of the Agreed Framework and jeopardizing its smooth operation. As of April 2003, North Korea is no longer a member of the NPT, and the nonproliferation institutions are no longer able to check North Korea's activities on proliferation matters. The fate of KEDO will depend on how the nuclear situation in North Korea is resolved. The prevailing view is that KEDO will be either suspended or terminated altogether. If U.S.-DPRK manages to reach a viable political solution on the nuclear problem, however, policy-makers could consider not only continuing KEDO's project but also strengthening the organization Given the investment made by KEDO members in North Korea, its presence in North Korea, its ongoing work on the construction site, and its experience in negotiating with the North Koreans, it should be further strengthened rather than dissolved. By strengthening the organization, it could serve as a full-blown security institution, acting as a Northeast Asian nonproliferation institution If North Korea agrees to verifiable inspections and stop its nuclear weapons program, there could be a redefinition of KEDO. For example, the organization could be strengthened with an inspection and a monitoring mechanism. The monitoring activities could be carried out in cooperation with the United States, the United Nations and the IAEA The U.S. could support the organization's monitoring activities with its advanced technical capabilities, such as intelligence gathering and surveillance system. If it were politically and technically not viable to create an independent monitoring mechanism within KEDO, the U.S. could share its intelligence on North Korea's nuclear activities with KEDOs Executive Board members. In the future, this would enable KEDO, instead of the United States, to confront North Korea with the intelligence on its nuclear activities or on other acts of violation. North Korea would then be forced to deal with KEDO rather than with only the United States. This would also ensure the continued role of South Korea, Japan as well as other members of the international community in North Korea's nuclear problem.

청소년기 진로 성숙도의 종단적 변화 연구: 고등학교 유형별 다집단 잠재 성장 모형 분석 적용

홍소정(洪笑正),이윤수(李潤洙) 서울대학교 교육연구소 2021 아시아교육연구 Vol.22 No.4

본 연구는 중‧고등학생의 진로 성숙도 변화 양상 및 그 원인과 결과를 분석하고, 일반고와 특성화고 간 집단 차이를 비교하는 데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 부산광역시 교육청 교육 정책 연구소에서 수집한 부산 교육 종단 연구(BELS) 1차 년도(2016년)~5차 년도(2020년) 자료를 활용하였다. 분석 대상은 1차 년도 중학교 1학년 응답자 3,000명이다. 분석 결과, 청소년의 진로 성숙도는 중학교 시기 감소하다가 고등학교 입학 후 증가하는 비선형 성장을 보였다. 세부적으로 진로 성숙도의 초기 값은 비슷했으나 일반고 진학자가 특성화고 진학자에 비해 진로 성숙도의 감소폭과 고등학교 입학 후 증가폭이 더 컸다. 고등학교 유형별 진로 성숙도 초기 값의 경우 일반고 학생은 진로 체험 활동과 자유학기제 도움 정도가, 특성화고 학생은 자유 학기제 도움 정도가 통계적으로 유의했다. 진로 성숙도 변화의 경우 일반고 학생은 주제 선택 활동이, 특성화고 학생은 교육과정 내 자유 학기 활동이 통계적으로 유의했다. 진로 성숙도의 초기 값이 높을수록 일반고와 특성화고 모두에서 자아존중감이 높았으나 진로 성숙도의 변화율은 특성화고에 한해서만 자아존중감을 높이는 데 기여했다. 연구 결과를 바탕으로 시사점 및 정책적 제언에 대해 논의하였다. The purpose of this study is to analyze the trajectory in career maturity of middle and high school students, their causes and results, and to compare the group differences between conventional and vocational high schools. We utilized data consisting of 3,000 respondents in the first year of middle school from the 1st year (2016) to the 5th year (2020) of the Busan Educational Longitudinal Study (BELS) collected by the Education Policy Research Institute of the Busan Metropolitan Office of Education. The results indicated that career maturity showed a non-linear growth that decreased during middle school and increased after entering high school. In detail, the initial value of career maturity was similar, but the decrease and increase of career maturity were greater for those who entered conventional high schools than those who entered vocational high schools. We also analyzed the effect of free learning semester program-related variables on this non-linear growth and the effect of such growth on self-esteem. Implications and policy recommendations were discussed based on the findings.

근로자의 주도적 행동 예측 변수 탐색

홍소정,주재홍,양병채 한국경영공학회 2024 한국경영공학회지 Vol.29 No.1

Purpose The purpose of this study is to derive the predictive variables for employee proactive behavior by developing a predictive model for employee proactive behavior. Methods The data utilized in this study were obtained from the second and third waves of the Human Capital Corporate Panel (HCCP), provided by the Korea Research Institute for Vocational Education & Training, comprising 5,588 observations. Using the random forest technique, a machine learning method, 101 organizational-related variables were applied to the research model to predict proactive behavior. Results We developed the predictive model for employee proactive behavior, which has 74.30% accuracy in model performance. Furthermore, by focusing on the top 30 important variables, we analyzed the primary variables predicting employee proactive behavior by comparing the key characteristics. Conclusion Based on the research findings, implications for nurturing and managing proactive talents and behaviors, which are essential for sustainable organizational performance from a human resource management perspective, were discussed.

<샤이닝>에 나타난 근대적 주체 구성 비판-판타지 양식에 주목하여

홍소인 영상예술학회 2003 영상예술연구 Vol.0 No.03

21세기 초 한국영화의 미디어 기억과 역사적 트라우마: 〈올드보이〉

홍소인(Hong, So-in) 동국대학교 영상미디어센터 2022 씨네포럼 Vol.- No.43

잠재성장모형과 잠재프로파일 분석을 활용한 학령기 아동의 전반적 행복감 분석

홍소정,양승지,김시은 서원대학교 사범대학 부설 교육연구소 2022 교육발전 Vol.42 No.2

The purposes of this study were to investigate the change pattern of overall happiness in elementary school students children (third to fifth grades), and verify the relationship between variations by categorized potential groups. For this study, data from the 10th data(2017) to the 12th data(2019) of the Panel Study on Korean Children(PSKC) provided by the Korean Institute of Child Care and Education(KICCE) were used. The results of the latent growth model and latent profile analysis were as follows. First, it was found that the overall happiness average of third-grade elementary school children decreased as the grade went up. Second, it was found that parental supervision and peer attachment had a significant effect on the overall happiness of children in the third grade of elementary school. Third, children's overall happiness was divided into four latent profiles: "Happiness-up", "Family Happiness-down", "Family Happiness-up", and "Happiness-down". Fourth, the results of ANOVA analysis of the latent profile showed that children's satisfaction with life, self-awareness, and adaptation to school were significant. Based on the results of this study, theoretical and practical implications for improving the overall happiness of elementary school students are suggested. 본 연구는 학령기 아동(초등 3학년~5학년)의 전반적 행복감의 변화 궤적을 분석하고, 전반적 행복감의 변화 양상에 따른 잠재집단을 추정하였다. 이를 위해 육아정책연구소에서 제공하는 ‘한국아동패널조사'의 10차년도(2017년)~12차년도(2019년)의 3시점 자료를 사용하였다. 잠재성장모형과 잠재프로파일 분석을 적용한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 초등학교 3학년 아동의 전반적 행복감 평균은 학년이 올라갈수록 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 부모감독과 또래애착은 초등학교 3학년 시기 아동의 전반적 행복감에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 아동의 전반적 행복감 변화에 따라 ‘행복감-상’, ‘가족행복감-하락’, ‘가족행복감-상승’, ‘행복감-하’ 총 4개의 잠재프로파일로 분류되었다. 넷째, 잠재프로파일별 아동의 삶의 만족도, 자아인식, 학교 적응은 유의한 차이를 나타냈다. 연구 결과를 바탕으로 학령기 아동의 행복감 증진에 대한 이론적, 실천적 시사점을 제언하였다.

공간상관성을 고려한 회귀계수의 베이지안 군집모형을 이용한 국내 당뇨병 유병률 자료 분석

홍소진(Sojin Hong),강다연(Dayun Kang),최정순(Jungsoon Choi) 한국데이터정보과학회 2018 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.29 No.3

공간자료를 이용한 회귀모형에서는 공간적 상관성을 가지는 임의성분 (random component)을 추가하여 공간적 상관구조를 설명하며 회귀계수는 주어진 공간영역 (spatial domain) 내에서 고정되어 있다는 가정을 일반적으로 한다. 이는 비록 종속변수의 공간적 상관성은 설명이 되지만, 종속변수에 대한 설명변수의 영향력이 지역마다 일정하다는 의미로 해석할 수 있다. 하지만, 공간자료의 특성상 회귀계수 자체가 공간상관성을 가질 수도 있고, 더불어 소지역마다 서로 다른 값을 가질 수도 있다. 최근, Lawson 등 (2014)은 이러한 회귀계수에 대해 공간상관성을 고려한 이산 군집모형을 제안하고 암생존 자료에 적용하였다. 이때, 복잡한 공간 상관구조를 고려하기 위하여 베이지안 계층적 모형이 사용되었다. 본 연구에서는 2014년 국내 252개 시군구별 당뇨병 유병률 자료에 대하여 처음으로 공간상관성을 고려한 모형을 제시하였으며, 나아가 회귀계수에 대한 공간상관성을 고려한 이산 군집화 모형을 적합하였다. 공간상관성을 고려하지 않은 모형을 비교모형으로 적합하여 제시한 모형의 성능을 비교분석 하였다. In spatial regression modeling, it is commonly assumed that spatial random components are considered to explain the spatial dependency structures and regression coefficient is constant over the entire spatial domain. However, the regression coefficient may have spatial dependency structures and be different depending on the sub-regions. Recently, Lawson et al. (2014) proposed Bayesian discrete clustering methods of spatially dependent regression coefficients and applied them to cancer survival dataset. Bayesian hierarchical approach was utilized to explain the complicated spatial dependent structures. In this paper, we first analyze the diabetes prevalence data for the entire 252 administrative districts of South Korea in 2014 year using spatially-dependent regression coefficient clustering models. We evaluate the performance of the proposed spatial models with the non-spatial model.

호텔 로비공간의 자연친화적 표현 특성에 관한 연구

홍소정(Hong, So-Jung),안희영(Ahn, Hee-Young) 한국실내디자인학회 2008 한국실내디자인학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.10 No.1

당뇨 환자에서의 주관적 시각 증상의 일중변화

홍소진,이경민,손준홍 대한안과학회 2013 대한안과학회지 Vol.54 No.2

Purpose: To investigate the diurnal variation of subjective visual symptoms of diabetic patients and to evaluate its correlation with visual acuity, blood pressure, blood glucose and OCT-measured macular thickness. Methods: Fifty-five diabetic patients (56 eyes) who were hospitalized for the operation of the fellow eye were enrolled in the study. They underwent optical coherence tomography (OCT) measurements of macular thickness with retinal mapping protocol of OTI/SLO OCT at 5PM, 8PM on operation day, and at 7AM, 10AM on following day. Visual acuity (log MAR), refraction, intraocular pressure, blood glucose and blood pressure were also measured at each time. We surveyed the patients’ symptomatic visual variation and its pattern if there is any change over a day. Results: Thirteen patients (25%) had reported changes in their subjective visual symptom over a day according to their blood glucose level. Among twenty-four cases with changes in their subjective visual acuity throughout the exam, only ten showed their real visual acuity change in accordance with their symptoms. Conclusions: One fourth of our diabetic patients stated fluctuation in their vision according to their blood glucose level, but there were no correlations between visual acuity, blood glucose level and macular thickness.

온실가스배출권 거래제의 보호수단에 대한 환경형법적 고찰 - 「온실가스배출권의할당및거래에관한법률」제41조(벌칙규정)을 중심으로 -

홍소현 아주대학교 법학연구소 2015 아주법학 Vol.9 No.3

온실가스의 위험성에 대한 국제적 관심이 증가하고 교토의정서가 채택됨에 따라 2015년부터 우리나라에도 온실가스 배출권 거래제도가 시행되었다. 이글은 온실가스배출권 거래제도의 도입과정과 법적의미에 대해 간략히 서술한 부분(Ⅱ), 「온실가스배출권의할당및거래에관한법률」(이하 ‘법’이라 한다.) 제41조를 제1항과 제3항으로 나누어 검토하여 문제점을 지적하는 부분(Ⅲ), 개선을 위한 제언 부분(Ⅳ)으로 구성되어 있으며, 2015년 온실가스배출권 시장의 개설 및 시행과 관련하여 배출권거래제도의 안정적 운용을 위한 수단으로써 규정된 법 제41조(벌칙규정)을 비판적으로 검토해보고 입법적・정책적 제언에 대해 고민해보고자 작성되었다. 위 법 제41조(벌칙규정)는 제도의 안정적운용을 담보하기 위해 형벌을 그 수단으로 하고 있다. 배출권거래가 시행되는 이상, 제도의 보호를 위해 제재적 수단을 예정하는 것은 당연한 입법정책이지만, 수단으로써 형벌을 선택하기 위해서는 보다 진지한 고민이 필요할 것이다. 형벌의 가혹성에 기인한 최후수단성 및 요구되는 죄형법정주의적 요청에 부합하는지가 먼저 검토되어야 할 것이고(형법 개입의 정당성), 형벌을 수단으로 하는데 그 만큼의 효용성(형법 개입의 실효성)이 담보 될 수 있는지도 검토되어야 한다. 특히 위 법은 자본시장법상의 일부 규정을 그대로 준용하고 있는 바, 준용에 따른 형벌규정간의 법정합성 역시 재검토되어야 한다. 법 제41조 제3항의 경우 명확성 원칙, 법률주의의 원칙 등에 위배될 수 있는 여지가 보이고, 법 제41조 제1항의 경우 형벌규정과 시장안정화 조치를 규정하고 있는 법 제23조 간에 법정합성을 확보하고 있지 못하는 문제가 존재한다. 전체적으로 볼 때 과징금 등 행정제재만으로도 충분히 실효성을 확보할 수 있음에도 불구하고 형벌이 우선 투입되어 형법의 최후수단성을 약화시키는 경향이 보인다. 이 논문에서는 온실가스배출권제도의 실효성 확보수단으로써 법 제41조의 문제점을 분석하고 이를 해결하기 위한 입법적 제언을 하였다. 죄형법정주의 원칙에 합치되도록 벌칙 규정의 형식을 특정조항의 위반행위를 처벌하는 형태로 바꾸는 것을 제안하였고, 시세조종행위와 시장안정화조치 규정간의 모순을 해결하기 위해 안정화조치의 수단을 제한하고 시세조종행위 규정에 예외조항을 두는 것을 제안하였다. 또한 과징금 제도의 광범위한 도입을 제안하고 벌칙규정이 실제로 적용되기 위해 완비되어야 할 행정조사에 관한 규정도 정비할 것을 제안하였다. 이러한 제언을 통해 법 제41조의 벌칙규정이 죄형법정주의 요청에 부합함과 동시에 규정간 충돌문제를 제거하고 실효성을 확보하여, 차후 온실가스배출권 거래제도를 운용하는 과정에서 발생할 수 있는 위법행위에 적절히 대처할 수 있도록 하는 것이 이 논문의 목적이다. 시행 원년을 맞이한 온실가스배출권 거래제도가 대기환경보호에 실효적인 수단으로 자리매김하기 위해서는 공정한 할당 및 거래가 전제되어야 한다. 이를 담보하는 것이 법 제41조에 규정된 벌칙조항이라는 맥락에서, 법 제41조 제1항과 동법 제3항에 대한 재고와 개선작업은 제도의 실효성을 확보하기 위해 반드시 선행되어야 할 연구과제이며 향후 지속적인 관심과 개선작업이 필요한 분야이다. As increasing International concern about the dangers of greenhouse gas, The South Korean government intimated the 「Framework Act on Law-carbon Green Growth and Enforcement Degree of the Act」 in 2010. In 2012, 「Act on the allocation and trading of greenhouse-gas emission permits」was enacted by parliament. The Act includes a emission trading system and has penalty provisions for protecting the system that use the criminal law. Generally the most important factors to be considered in the emissions trading system is to stipulate fundamental concepts and standards for the legal nature of emissions permits the scope of applicable entities and the methodologies for allocation so that the law minimizes potential confusion and disputes. It also needs to create a fair and robust domestic carbon market. The law use the criminal law for that goal. The person who did fraud about emission trading are punished by imprisonment and fine according to the Act Article 41. It is justify to necessary to establish fair and robust carbon market. However, the criminal law should be the ultimate legal method to protect the system because it has the Severity to human rights. Therefore, this study analyze the problem Act Article 41 as a means of ensuring the effectiveness of greenhouse gas emission rights system. It could be better means for maintain the system like a administrative investigation procedure.