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        주제공원 이용자들의 선택행동 연구 -Constraints-Induced Conjoint Choice Model의 적용-

        홍성권,이용훈 한국조경학회 2000 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.28 No.2

        The importance of constraints has been one of major issues in recreation for prediction of choice behavior; however, traditional conjoint choice model did not consider the effects of these variables or fail to integrate them into choice model adequately. The purposes of this research are (a) to estimate the effects of constraints in theme park choice behavior by the constraints-induced conjoint choice model, and (b) to test additional explanatory power of the additional constraints in this suggested model against the more parsimonious traditional model. A leading polling agency was employed to select respondents. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the constraints-induced conjoint choice model. Th alternative-specific model was calibrated. The log-likelihood ratio test revealed that suggested model was accepted in the favor of the traditional model, and the goodness-of-fit($\rho$$^2$) of suggested and traditional model was 0.48427 and 0.47950, respectively. There was no difference between traditional and suggested model in estimates of attribute levels of car and shuttle bus because alternatives were created to estimate the effects of constraints independently from mode related variables. Most parameters values of constraints had the expected sign and magnitude: the results reflected the characteristics of the theme parks, such as abundance of natural attractions and poor accessibility in Everland, location of major fun rides indoor in Lotte World, city park like characteristics of Dream Land, and traffic jams in Seoul. Instead of the multinomial logit model, the nested logit model is recommended for future researches because this model more reasonably reflects the real decision-making process in park choice. Development of new methodology too integrate this hierarchical decision-making into choice model is anticipated.

      • KCI우수등재

        중요도-성취도 분석을 이용한 도시분원의 원리방법에 관한 연구 -어린이대공원을 사례로-

        홍성권 한국조경학회 1995 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.23 No.3

        Purposes of this study were to apply and examine that the importance-performance analysis(IPA) could be a useful park management tool. The IPA is an easily-applied technique developed in marketing field to measure attribute importance and performance. It displays them simultaneously on a 4-quardrant action grid; therefore, park managers can upgrade current services and address marketing strategies for various user segments. The children's grand park was selected as a study are. Two different types of questionaires were utilized for data analyses. They were collected from one respondent by on-site distribution or by mail survey, because attribute importance and performance should be rated before and after visiting a park, respectively. Then, total data was segmented systematically by 2 variables-age and benefit sought. Action grids from order to meet the needs of each segment. Several comments on both data collection methods and segment variables selection were described to improve the IPA in recreation settings for future researches.

      • KCI우수등재

        Conjoint Choice Model을 이용한 주제공원 이용자들의 선택행동 연구

        홍성권 한국조경학회 2000 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.28 No.1

        The purposes of this study are two folds: a) to introduce conjoint choice model to research the choice behavior of theme park users, and b) to suggest the strategies to strengthen the competitiveness of theme parks. The major four theme parks in Seoul metropolitan areas were selected as study areas. A leading polling agency was employed to select 432 respondents by probability sampling and to conduct face-to-face interview. Both alternative generating and choice set generating fractional factorial design were conducted simultaneously to meet the necessary and sufficient conditions for calibration of the conjoint choice model. Dummy coding was used to represent the attribute levels, and the alternative-specific model was calibrated. The goodness-of-fit of the model was quite satisfactory($\rho$$^2$=0.47950), and most parameters values had to expected sign and magnitude. Car was preferred transport mode to shuttle bus for visiting theme parks ; however the most ideal attribute levels only were estimated significantly. Most attribute levels of shuttle bus were estimated significantly except the Dream Land, which is the least attractive park among study areas. Simulation results showed that the shuttle bus was a mode worth providing to switch the current car dominant visiting pattern of theme parks, which will be one the effective strategies to attract more patrons, especially for potential users adjacent to parks. Several ideals were suggested for future researches, in terms of utilization of more general utility function and new base alternative, and inclusion of more salient attributes such as constraints in the model.

      • KCI우수등재

        도시공원 이용자의 목적지 선정에 관한 연구 -광주시를 대상으로-

        홍성권 한국조경학회 1991 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.19 No.3

        To understand and predict destination choice behavior for urban parks, two hypotheses, which are based on extended Fishbein model, were proposed and tested in Kwangju. Data was analyzed by the citizens of Kwangju and by target markets segmented by demographic variables. Analysis by the citizens of Kwangju showed that postulated hypotheses are true. However, they were partially thru in the other cases : it was a general tendency that suggested model applied well in the high-involvement product. Among the demographic variables, sex was the most useful to understand park choice behavior. Park management directions were suggested, and several future research implications were discussed.

      • 항공기 지상 이동 속도에 대한 확률적 모형 연구

        홍성권,전대근,은연주,김현경 한국항공우주학회 2015 한국항공우주학회 학술발표회 논문집 Vol.2015 No.11

        본 논문에서는 항공기의 공항 지상 이동 속도를 확률적으로 모형화하는 방법을 제안하였다. 제안된 방법은 지상 이동 속도를 확률 모형으로 정의함으로써 실제 운영 시에 발생하는 불확실성을 고려하여 공항 지상 운영을 모사할 수 있도록 한다. 또한 제안된 방법을 실제 과거 항적자료에 적용해 봄으로써 공항의 지리적 특성과 교통상황에 따른 항공기의 지상 이동 속도 분포 차이를 분석해 보았다. This paper proposes a probabilistic modeling approach for aircraft ground taxi speed. The proposed method takes into account the uncertainty of real airport ground operations for airport surface simulation by modeling aircraft taxi speed as probabilistic distributions. The proposed method was also applied to historical surface operational data to analyze differences in speed distributions among different geographical characteristics and traffic situations.

      • KCI우수등재

        주제공원 이용자들의 선택행동 추정에 관한 연구 -Nested Logit Model의 적용

        홍성권 한국조경학회 1997 韓國造景學會誌 Vol.24 No.4

        This study was carried out to identify users' choice behavior of theme parks. overland. Lotte World, Seoul Land, Dreamland and Children's Grand Park were selected as study areas. Both multinomial logic model(MNL), nested logic model(NMNL) and joint logit model wet$.$e test using a choice-based sample collected on study areas. Hausman-McFadden test showed that the MNL is not appropriate because the IIA assumption is violated. To avoid the problematic IIA assumption, the NMNL was tested. It splits similar alternatives into groups and nests separate decisions into hierarchical order to avoid the IIA assumption. Cluster analysis and discriminant analysis were conducted to find applicable nest structures. The inclusive value coefficient was 0.7788. It meant that sufficient condition of this model is met and users' choice behavior can be better understood by NMNL than MNL. The $\rho$2 value and accuracy of prediction of this model were 0.402 and 46.33% , respectively. Several comments were suggested to make the NMNL to be more reliable for future research on users' choice behavior of theme park.

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