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천병철 한국은행 2002 經濟分析 Vol.8 No.2
본고에서는 우리나라에서 금융자유화가 소비에 미친 영향을 분석하고 그 정책적 시사점을 도출하고자 하였다. 일반적으로 경제조치의 효과 분석을 위해서는 특정 경제조치 전후의 계량모형의 모수추정치 변화에 대한 통계적 유의성을 검정한다. 그러나, 금융자유화는 일과성의 사건이 아닌 일련의 과정인 점을 감안하여 본고에서는 금융자유화 자체를 계량화된 변수(금융자유화 지수)로 하여 모수추정치의 통계적 유의성을 검정하였다. 금융자유화가 소비에 미친 영향을 분석하기 위해 먼저 기존의 소비계량모형에 금융자유화 지수를 추가하여 분석한 결과에 따르면 금융자유화는 소비에 정(‘+’)효과를 나타내었다. 또한, 소비자이론에 입각한 전향기대모형에서는 금융자유화가 진행됨에 따라 소비시점에 미래소득을 이용할 수 있는 집단의 비율(unconstrained group)이 증가하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 한편, 변수들의 동적변화를 알기 위한 상태공간모형에서는 부동산보유액은 최근에 외환위기 이후 소비에 중요한 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 금융자유화 이후에도 금융기관들은 고객효과(client effect) 등으로 기존 차주에 대한 여신관계를 계속 유지하다가, 외환위기로 한계기업이 도태된 이후 부동산을 담보로 한 가계대출에 늘인 데 기인한 것으로 생각된다.
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중동호흡기증후군 유행 시 밀접접촉자의 정의와 관리방안: 2015년 유행의 반성과 교훈
천병철 대한의사협회 2015 대한의사협회지 Vol.58 No.8
Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is an emerging zoonosis caused by the novel MERS corona virus isolated in 2012. Most MERS cases have been reported from Arab countries of the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan. There have been a few imported cases in many countries, but the exception is Korea, which reported 186 confirmed cases originating from one imported case in a two-month outbreak in 2015. There are many lessons to be learned from the MERS outbreak in Korea, among them, management of contacts. The definition of “close contact” used by the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) for MERS response was not clear and not compatible with the definition of the World Health Organization. This incorrect definition allowed the KCDC make serious mistakes in contact tracing and management in the early epidemic stage of MERS. After the rapid expansion of the outbreak, the KCDC redefined a “close contact” according to the definition of the US CDC. The total number of close contacts was 16,693 in this outbreak, and they were all forced to conduct a self-quarantine for 14 days after the last contact with a MERS patient. It was not clear whether self-quarantine of close contacts was effective to control the outbreak. Given the lack of prepared guidelines or a social support system for them, these measures for the massive number of asymptomatic contacts caused a great deal of confusion in the field A clear response guideline is needed for contact management based on robust evidence from this MERS epidemic in Korea.
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通貨總量의 經濟成長 및 인플레이션 豫測力 提高에 관한 硏究
천병철 한국은행 2000 經濟分析 Vol.6 No.1
본 연구에서는 최근의 금융의 자유화 및 개방화 등으로 통화총량을 이용한 거시경제 전망의 精度가 저하된 점을 주시하고 통화총량과 경제성장 및 인플레이션간의 관계를 보다 안정적으로 예측할 수 있는 새로운 방법을 모색하였다. 이를 위하여 최근 계량분석에서 많이 적용하고 있는 시간변화요소를 반영한 switching regression 모형과 칼만필터링 時變母數模型을 이용하였으며 아울러 이 방법들의 상대적 예측력을 평가하기 위해 OLS 모형도 병행하여 사용하였다. 실증분석 결과에 의하면 switching regression 모형이나 칼만필터 시변모수모형이 기존의 OLS 모형보다 예측력 측면에서 우월한 것으로 나타났다. switching regression 모형에서는 MCT나 M3의 단일 계열보다는 M1, M2 및 MCT 또는 M3를 시간에 따라 적절히 변경(switching)한 시계열의 예측력이 높게 나타났다. 시변모수모형에서는 시간이 흐르면서 통화총량을 구성하는 항목들의 예측기여도가 변하고 있음을 보여주었다. 이러한 분석결관느 명목 GDP 및 인플레이션 예측에 있어 통화지표의 예측력을 보다 제고할 수 있는 여지가 있음을 시사하고 있다.
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천병철 한국보건통계학회 2001 보건정보통계학회지 Vol.26 No.1
Shigellosis is an acute, infectious, inflammatory enteritis of humans. It is often clinically manifested by the dysentery syndrome(frequent bloody-mucoid stool, tenesmus, abdominal cramp). But the clinical signs and symptoms of shigellosis by S. sonnei were known as being variable and hardly defined. For this reason, There were very few studies about the case definition of shigellosis. Data mining techniques including decision tree analysis are newly developed analytical algorithms to explore the database and to discover association rules, risk factors and predictive factors. In this study, decision tree analysis technique was applied to the epidemiologic data to define the shigellosis by clinical signs and symptoms. Standard questionnaires were collected and bacteriological culture by rectal swaps were performed to all cases in two shigellosis epidemics-one for high school students and the other for elementary students. The characteristics of diarrhea were quite different from classical dysentery, and the blood -mucous type was under 5% in both group. Distributions of first symptom, maximum diarrheal number in a day and the type of diarrhea were very similar to each other groups. But the diarrheal duration of elementary students were significantly longer than those of high school students. Frequencies of abdominal cramp, headache and febrile sense were significantly high than those of high school students. As a result of decision tree analysis showed the febrile sense, maximum diarrheal number in a day, abdominal discomfort and duration of diarrhea were selected significant variables to predict the bacteriological positiveness in elementary school students. The sensitivity and specificity of this results were 51% and 97% in high school students; 91% and 79% in elementary school students respectively.
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Economic burden of otitis media and a survey of physicians for its practice and claim codes in Korea
천병철,손우연,정원주,이환종 대한의사협회 2013 대한의사협회지 Vol.56 No.1
Otitis media (OM) is one of the most common pediatric infectious diseases. The burden of OM is known in many countries, but data for Korea has not been collected. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the disease burden of OM in both children and adults. The Health Insurance Review and Assessment database study was analyzed to estimate the clinical and economic burden of OM and acute OM (AOM) for 2004. OM was defined as all cases coded H65,H66, or H67 and AOM cases coded H65, H65.0, H65.1, H65.9, H66, H66.4 or H66.9. For AOM,repeated visits within 30 days were considered to be one episode. Age specific incidence, and direct and indirect costs were estimated. A survey on pediatricians and otolaryngologists who most frequently diagnosed OM was carried out. The objective was to evaluate the accuracy of the claims made for OM and to examine the diagnosis and treatments of OM. A total of 5,964,587claims for OM and 2,924,532 AOM episodes were reported. The incidence of outpatients presenting AOM was 60.9/1,000. The incidence of AOM was highest in children aged 1 year (736.9/1,000). The overall hospitalization rate due to AOM was 2.8/10,000, with a peak of 29.4/10,000 (1 year). The total cost incurred by AOM in Korea was estimated to be around 606.3billion Korean won (KRW; 1,000 KRW is approximately US$1.00). The total cost of admissions was approximately 22.9 billion KRW, and the average cost of admission per person was about 1,690,000 KRW in a year. The cost of outpatient visits was 583.4 billion KRW, and 199,000 KRW per person. According to a survey of pediatricians and otolaryngologists on the accuracy of the OM diagnostic code, treatment, and prescription habits, the first-line diagnosis of AOM seemed to be fairly accurate. OM, including AOM, causes a considerable clinical and economic burden in Korea.
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