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제2형 당뇨병 환자에서 대혈관합병증 발생 예측 인자로서 경동맥 내막-중막 두께 및 죽상경화반
조정구,박병현 대한당뇨병학회 2000 Diabetes and Metabolism Journal Vol.24 No.5
Background: This study was undertaken to investigate that intima-media thickness and plaque of the carotid artery, as measured by high resolution B-mode ultrasonography, can be used as predictors for occurrence of clinical macrovascular complication in type 2 diabetes patients. Methods: High resolution B-mode ultrasonographic examination was performed in 39 type 2 diabetes, including 16 diabetes with macrovascular complication, and in 18 non-diabetic control subjects. Concurrently serum total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, lipoprotein (a), HbA_(1c) C-peptide levels and body mass index (BMI) were measured and history of hypertension, smoking, duration of diabetes and occurrence of macrovascular complication during the last b months were investigated. Results: 1) Significant differences in common carotid IMT (0.72±.08 mm, vs 0.93±0.26 mm), existence of atherosclerotic plaque (50%, vs 69%), plaque number (0.5±0.86, vs 0.69±2.37) and carotid stenosis (0%, vs 18%) were found between control and type 2 diabetes (p$lt;0.05). 2) Significant differences in age (67.63±4.30, vs 60.6±12.0), lipoprotein (a) (63.65±32.2 mg/dL, vs 35.22±34.74 mg/dL), common carotid IMT (1.08±0.27 mm, vs 0.82±0.20 mm), existence of atherosclerotic plaque (87.5%, vs 56.5%), plaque number (2.88±3.16, vs 0.91±1.02), end diastolic ventricular septal thickness (10.82±1.88 mm, vs 8.76±2.92 mm) and end diastolic left ventricular posterior wall thickness (10.79±1.60 mm, vs 9.1 ±2.56 mm) were found between type 2 diabetes patients with macrovascular complication and without macrovascular complication (p$lt;0.05). 3) Age (r=0.363, p=0.023), hypertension (r=0.32, p=0.047), carotid plaque existence (r=0.377, p=0.018) and plaque number (r=0.662, p=0.000) showed a correlation with the IMT in type 2 diabetes. 4) Most common involving site of atherosclerotic plaques was carotid bulb and more extensive involvement was showed in type 2 diabetes with macrovascular complication than without macrovascular complication. 5) The sensitivity of common carotid IMT ($gt; control mean IMT + 2 SD; $gt; 1.22 mm) for prediction of macrovascular complication in type 2 diabetes patients was 25%, the specificity 95.7%, the positive predictive value 80%, the negative predictive value 61.8%. 6) The sensitivity of existence of carotid plaque for prediction of macrovascular complication in type 2 diabetes patients was 87.5%, the specificity 60.9%, the positive predictive value 60.9%, the negative predictive value 87.5%. Conclusion: Increases in IMT and plaque of the carotid artery, as measured by high resolution B-mode ultrasonography, can be used as predictors for occurrence of clinical macrovascular complication in type 2 diabetes patients.
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우리나라 수출가격에 대한 환율전가의 비대칭성 및 비선형성 분석
조정구 한국은행 2012 經濟分析 Vol.18 No.4
This paper tests whether asymmetry and non-linearity are present in the ERPT (exchange rate pass-through) to Korean export prices, using monthly data from February 1980 to July 2011, and analyzes how, if any, short-run and long-run ERPT elasticities vary in accordance with the direction and the size of exchange rate changes by the non-linear model which can capture such effects and what changes has occurred in Korean exporters' ERPT behavior since the 1997 financial crisis. We find that asymmetric and non-linear effects cannot be statistically rejected, although the direction of the asymmetries and the nature of the non-linearities noticeably vary across the sub-sample periods or the length of forecasting horizons. 본 연구에서는 1980년 2월부터 2011년 7월까지의 월별 자료를 이용하여 우리나라 수출가격에 대한 환율전가의 비대칭성과 비선형성의 존재여부를 검정하는 한편, 비대칭성과 비선형성을 동시에 고려한 모형을 기반으로 하여 환율변화의 방향과 크기에 따라 환율전가도에 어떤 차이가 있는지, 그리고 외환위기 이전과 이후 환율과 수출가격 간의 관계 및 우리나라 수출기업들의 전가행태에 어떤 변화가 있었는지를 분석하였다. 본 연구에서의 실증분석 결과를 종합해보면, 우리나라 수출가격에 대한 원/달러 환율의 전가행태는 환율변화의 방향에 따라 비대칭적일 뿐 아니라 환율변화율의 크기에 따라서도 환율전가도가 달라지는 비선형성을 보이고 있는 것으로 나타난다. 그러나 이러한 비대칭성과 비선형성의 세부적 형태와 발생요인은 외환위기 이전과 이후에 상당히 다른 모습을 보였을 뿐 아니라, 전기의 경우에는 환율충격 발생 초기의 전가행태와 장기 전가행태 간에도 상당한 차이를 보였다.
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