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동태적 변화 : 할당분석에 관한 고찰 Share Analysis
정홍열 한국국제경제학회 2000 국제경제연구 Vol.6 No.2
1940년대 초에 개발된 變化-割當分析방식은 자료수집의 容易性과 분석의 簡便性으로 인해 많은 국내·외 지역경제학자들에 의해 地域의 성장요인이나 特化産業 選定, 地域政策의 평가에 폭넓게 사용되어 왔으며, 국내에서도 지방자치제가 실시됨에 따라 지역의 정책입안자들에 의해 앞으로도 더욱더 빈번히 쓰여질 것으로 예상된다. 그러나 이 기법은 모델 자체가 가진 문제점들로 학자들 간에 많은 논란을 불러일으켰고, 그 사용 용도에 따라 제약을 받아온 것도 사실이다. 이 논문에서는 이러한 문제점 중에서도 특히 이 기법이 가지고 있는 비교정태방식에서 야기되는 가중성문제에 초점을 맞추어, 이를 완전히 해소한 動態的 分析方式과 기존의 고전적 分析方式을 국내지역을 대상으로 분석·비교해 봄으로써 과거 비판 없이 채택·사용되어 왔던 고전적 변화-할당분석방식의 문제점과 향후개선책에 대해 살펴본다.
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6대 都市의 산업구조 分析 : 立地商(LQ)을 중심으로 based on Location Quotients
정홍열 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1998 韓國經濟 Vol.25 No.-
The location quotients is a technique used for assessing one region's specialization in an industry or some other activities. The nation has usually played benchmark role in this model. In order to measure the extent of economic concentration, the number of employees is most frequently used, but sales, gross regional products and value added have also been used. Fortunately, this kinds of data can be easily obtained from published regional data, and this makes location quotients very versatile and popular tools. However, empirical studies that involve this method is very rare in Korea. In this respect, I will first review the theoretical contents of location quotients including its advantages and limitations, and then apply this to 6 largest cities in Korea in order to find out what industries are specialized in each cities and how the degree of such specialization changed as time passed.
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EU 공동농업정책의 발전 : 보장부문(Guarantee Section)의 개혁을 중심으로
정홍열 서울대학교 국제지역원 2000 국제지역연구 Vol.9 No.2
유럽연합의 공동농업정책(Common Agricultural Policy)은 1957년 체결된 로마 조약에 근거하여 설립되었으며, 1962년에는 EAGGF를 창설하여 농업부문을 지원함으로써 유럽연합 발전에 초석을 이루고 있다. 그러나 EAGGF 보장부문의 고가격지원정책과 수출보조금 제도는 연합체에 큰 재정적 부담을 안겨 주었으며, 또한 회원국들 뿐 만 아니라 세계 주요 곡물수출국과 계속하여 마찰을 일으켜 왔다. 이러한 문제점들을 개선하기 위해 유럽연합은 지난 40여년 간 EAGGF 보장부문을 지속적으로 개혁해 어느 정도 성과를 거두기도 하였다. 그러나 핵심적인 문제는 아직 그대로 남아 있으며, 현재 EU가 경제통화동맹(EMU)과 회원국 확대 정책을 추구함에 따라 향후 더욱 더 많은 문제를 야기할 것으로 예상된다. 이러한 맥락에서 논문에서는 처음 공동농업정책(CAP)이 설립될 당시의 상황과 공동농업정책의 발전과정, 보장부문(Guarantee Section) 중심의 개혁 내용들을 자세히 살펴 봄으로 이 정책이 가진 문제점들을 찾아보고, 이를 바탕으로 미래의 개혁 방안을 제시해 본다. The Development of Agricultural Policy of the EU: with focus on the Reform of the Guarantee Section The Common Agricultural Policy of the EC was established by the Treaty of Rome in 1957, and soon became a cornerstone of the Community. It covered over 90 percent of agricultural goods and was regarded as one of the most developed of the EU's policies. Since the 1980s, however, the CAP has caused not only financial crisis but also much political and economic conflict due to its particularly high price support system. Its export refund system has also disturbed the world agricultural market and created problems for the major exporters of farm products. Furthermore, the large share of agricultural expenditure in the EC budget has continued to block the development of other EU programs. To settle these disputes, the EU has introduced a number of reforms over the past 30 years. Even though these attempts achieved some significant progress, the key problems still existed. Moreover, the operations of the CAP are expected to be more complicated in the future due to the EU pursuit of the EMU and the Fourth enlargement. In this paper, I first examine the prevailing economic and political conditions when the CAP was established. Then I review how the CAP, especially Guarantee Section, has evolved and reformed during the past 30years. In the conclusion, I will discuss the main problems of the CAP, and suggest the direction of future reform.
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정홍열 아세아연합신학대학교 신학연구소 2013 ACTS 神學과 宣敎 Vol.13 No.-
In regards to the idea of reward in heaven, one may point out two different positions under a current debate, which opposes to one another. This article attempts to tackle some of these arguments in light of some of the biblical and reformationary concepts. One contention that rejects the notion of graded reward in heaven regards salvation as a result of the absolute divine grace and perfect gift from the righteous God. There is neither the lack of grace nor the grading discrimination of it. Here the proponents consider it a serious problem if some theologians insist on the grading or additional reward in heaven besides the salvation alone. Accordingly, it would unavoidably lead into the relativism of God`s grace. Allusion to the biblical teachings for the fullness of salvation as nothing other than the reward from God is very legitimate within the reformationary tradition. However the biblical texts that indicate clear differences of reward are also paramount and quite undeniable. Even though it does not connect directly with the causality of our merit in this world, at least it relates with our devotional aspects. For instance, in principle there seems to be no disagreement upon the exposition that heavenly reward will be given to us as a divine grace and there will be no additional gift besides salvation. But the very different grade of enjoyment of God`s grace can not but reflect the different grade of reward. This recalls the augustinian theological motto, that of "enjoyment and use of God". Provided the augustinian interpretation of the doctrine of reward in heaven is an accepted theological framework of our discussion, grace may take a dual reception. Some faithful christian enjoy this grace and glory with thankfulness, whereas other people enjoy them with shame and regret. So if there will be different grade of reward, it might be understood in this way and not in different way, which promises grade reward according to different merits. Thus we may come to a conclusion that there is no causality between our merit and reward, but relationship between our devotion and divine enjoyment of God`s grace.
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정홍열 국제지역학회 1998 국제지역연구 Vol.2 No.1
After the Second World War, the U.S. became a new leading power among a Capitalist Countries. However, her position start to shake from 1970s when current account balance was getting worse. In 1980s, her leading power was further weaken as European countries and Japan recovered their economic strength. To regain her hegemony, American turn her eyes to regionalism and set up the NAFTA which bound economies of U.S. Canada and Mexico more closely. But U.S. still feel insufficient to contract the expanding influence of EU and Japan. Therefore, U.S. mapped out a new initiative, namely FTAA, in which all of the countries of North and South America are included. U.S. also tried to intensify the relationship of APEC. In this context, I first survey the background of establishment and main agreement's contents of NAFTA, and then review the impacts of NAFTA on integration policy of central and south America. Based on results, I will predict the direction of development of NAFTA and change of world economic discipline in next century.
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