단기소득임산물의 수출 결정요인 분석

정호근 ( Ho Gun Chong ),이병훈 ( Byoung Hoon Lee ) 한국축산경영학회 2014 농업경영정책연구 Vol.41 No.3

This study examines the factors affecting the export of forestry productsusing the Gravity Model. The distance between exporting and importingcountry is the most important factor as the Gravity Model along withinternational trade theory suggested. It showed that the support of logisticcost, which generally gets bigger with greater distance, is essential inpromoting the export, considering the small business size of exporters.Hanryu, a cultural influence of Korea, affects positively the export, though notas much as another factors we considered. The number of overseas Koreanalso helps to increase the export, which suggests we need to keep payingattention on the changing flavors of overseas Korean especially the oncomingconsumers including the third and fourth generations immigrated. It isnecessary to conduct more sophisticated export market analysis to pinpointthe targe market as well as main export items. In general, the export supportpolicy is needed to be changed to maximize the effect of the FTA such asthe preferential tariff.

산림산업 활성화를 위한 종묘산업 발전방안

정호근(Ho-gun Chong),임철균(Chul-kyun Yim) 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Seed and seedling industry is important as the basis of forestry business. The demand of forestry is growing not only for the quality of life but also for providing natural resources. As income grows, the public is looking for better environmental service as well as wooden materials for the living. Because the demand for new renewable energy is increased to cope with climate change and the CER(Carbon Emission Reduction), there is a growing interest in forest resources. However, seed and seedling industry lacks in size and capacity to allow forest business to catch up with increasing demand. Hence, after examining the current situation of production and usage of seed and seedling, we derive a development strategy for the seed and seedling industry to revitalize forestry business. The scope of the study covers seed production, seedling production, and afforestation. We found the following as the current problem in the seed industry. There isn’t an efficient control system to manage central seed orchard and seed stand. Hence, the quality degradation of seed as well as tree can occur. Even though there would be enough good seeds in orchard or stand, the shortage of good labor to harvest the seeds and the supply and demand misalignment could still cause a seed problem such as using the seeds from the un-designated seed stands. We found the following as the current problem in the seedling industry. Both public and private tree nurseries have the same single big problem. That is the shortage of labor and it has been getting worse. Tree nurseries irregularly require much labor during the short period of time and it is getting more difficult in rural areas to recruit labor especially good experienced labor. The shortage of labor is the biggest problem in planting for both public and private forests. We propose the following as the solutions for the problems of seed and seedling industry. First, it is necessary to establish a mid to long term seed supply plan. Based on this, we need to readjust seed production system. It is better to provide only the major seeds from central seed orchard and seeds for special purpose or selected area from the seed stands. Second, the formulation of the national seed management system can’t be done without proper marketing and distribution of seeds. In that sense, early settlement of the producer verification can restrict the usage of unproven seeds to grow saplings for the forestry. Third, the shortage of labor can be solved by mechanization and facility cultivating, which is less demanding in labor compared with outdoor cultivating. The expansion of facility cultivating in seedling is possible only when the number of species from facility cultivating of national afforestation is increased, not to mention facility itself and related nursery technique. When the facility cultivating is equipped with modern tools and automatic control system, it is much easier to resolve the labor problem in the seedling industry. Forth, we need to reinforce the infrastructure both tangible and intangible. In the sense, a professional education organization with specialized program would be desirable to make new seed and seedling specialists and keep them by providing supplementary education. Fifth, Expanding both the research areas and the research volume is necessary. Considering the required long period of time for growing and the difficulty for species differentiation, the application of BT technology including cloning and tissue culture is important but it is better to focus only on core, major species considering the necessary size of budget for the research.

주요 단기소득 임산물 유통경로 분석을 통한 유통개선 방안 연구

정호근 ( Ho Gun Chong ),송성환 ( Seong Hwan Song ),이상민 ( Sang Min Lee ),임철균 ( Chul Kyun Yim ) 한국산림과학회 2015 한국산림과학회지 Vol.104 No.2

The marketing system of non-timber forest products has been criticized as it mainly depends upon private local dealers, having too many steps between producers and consumers, we believe, which makes it less efficient. Meanwhile, there were only a few empirical studies of how they are delivered to consumers. In order to devise and implement targeted forest policies efficiently, it is quite necessary to understand the distribution channel of them. We analyzed the distribution channel of chestnut, bitter persimmon, oak mushroom, and wild greens by data analysis, field and phone survey, and then drew an implication for improving the marketing system. First of all, the number of middle step has to be reduced and the direct transaction has to be expended. In addition, we need to have more active involvement of Forest cooperative in production sites, adding values by processing, and the upgrade of current marketing centers of non-timber forest products, which have been launched since 2004 by Korea Forest Service.

An Explanation of U.S. big Firm`s Profitability in 1990`s: The Comparison between Theory Composite Model and the Model based on Directed Acyclic Graphs

정호근 ( Ho Gun Chong ) 한국국제경제학회 2004 한국국제경제학회 동계학술대회 Vol.2004 No.1

산림과 산림정책에 대한 국민과 임업인 의식조사

정호근 ( Ho Gun Chong ),박소희 ( So Hee Park ),석현덕 ( Hyun Deok Seok ) 한국산림경제학회 2012 산림경제연구 Vol.19 No.1

본 연구의 목적은 산림 및 산림정책에 대한 국민과임업인의의식조사를 통해 수요자의 요구에 부합한 산립넝책 수립을 위한 정책적 시사점을 제공하는 데 있다. 국민과 임업인을 대상으로 산림의 역할, 산림분야 수요 전망, 산림정책의 평가와 앞으로 나아갈 방향에 대헤 조사하였다. 산림의 역할에 대해 국민은 자원보전과 지구온난화방지를 중요시 한 반면 임업인은 자원보전 못지않게 소득창출을 위한 임산물 생산을 중요시 하였다. 국민과 임업인 모두 산행, 치유, 임산물 생산 등을 위해 산과 산림에대한 수요가 증가할 것으로 전망하였지만, 목재와 목재에너지수요가 증가할 것이라는 전망은 낮게 나타났다. 산지이용기준 완화에 대해서는 임업인보다 국민의 부정적인 시각이 월등하게 많앗으나 산림관리를 위한 산주 지원 사업에 대새서는 국민과 임업인 모두 타당하다는 의견이 높게 나타났다. 산림정책 수립에 국민의견의 반영 정도에 대해 과반수가 넘는 국민과 임업인이 부정적인 의견을 보여 향후 적극적인 의견수렴과 이를 위한 제도적 보완이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. The purpose of the study is to provide a reference for establishing the forestry policies by conducting a survey for citizen and forest farmers. For both groups, we questioned the role and quality of forest, the future of various demand of forest, and the future of forestry oplicies. To citizens, the conservation of resources and the prevention of global warming are the first and second priority of the role of forest. Meanwhile, for the same question, the production of forestry products is next to the conservation of resources for forestry farmers. Both groups expected that the demand of mountatin and forest such as hikin, healing, and production, except the wood and woody biomass, will be kept increasing. for whether to deregulate forest-land use, the citizens showed much more negative opinion than the forest farmers. Meanwhile, both groups tend to accept the national subsidy programs for private forest management. It seems to be necessary to fortify the pinion gathering and accepting system, because more than half of both groups answered that their opinions was not applicd at current policies and policies making process.

산주와 임업인의 인식 분석을 통한 산림환경서비스 지불제의 도입 가능성 평가

구자춘 ( Ja Choon Koo ),정호근 ( Ho Gun Chong ),석현덕 ( Hyun Doek Seok ) 한국임학회 2014 산림과학 공동학술대회 논문집 Vol.2014 No.-

본 논문은 일반국민과 임업인의 산림환경서비스 지불제 도입에 관한 의사를 분석하여 제도의 도입 가능성을 평가하고, 도입 가능성을 높이기 위한 정책 방향을 제안하기 위하여 마련되었다. 2012년 일반국민 1,033명과 임업인 500명을 대상으로 실시한 설문조사에서 일반국민 40.3%와 임업인34.4%가 산림환경서비스 지불제 도입에 찬성하였다. 다항로짓모형으로 분석한 결과, 나이, 학력, 소득, 산림정책에 대한 평가, 산지 소유 여부가 지불제에 대한 의사에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 산림환경서비스 공급자는 지불제 시행에 부정적 입장을 취하였고, 정부 주도의 산림정책 추진이 지불제 찬성에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 지불제의 원활한 도입을 위해 서는 정부가 공급자의 채권을 보장해줄 정도의 강한 리더십을 발휘해야 할 것이다. This study aims to evaluate contingent feasibility of introducing payment for forest ecosystem services(PES) system by analyzing an intention of general public and foresters. 1,033 general public and 500 foresters were surveyed in 2012. 40.3% of general public and 34.3% of forester agreed to PES system, incentives offered to forest owners in exchange for managing their forest to provide forest ecosystem services. The Results of multinomial logit model show that age, income, education, attitudes toward current forest policies and ownership have a significant effect on their intention. Specifically, forest owners, suppliers of services show a negative view of introducing PES system. And government-led forest policy has a positive effect on respondent``s willingness to agree to PES. Thus, in order to facilitate PES system, Korean government should demonstrate strong leadership enough to ensure the bond of supplier.

‘산촌 사회경제 조사’를 위한 기초연구

민경택(Kyung-Taek Min),정호근(Ho-Gun Chong),김명은(Myeong-Eun Kim),구자춘(Ja-Choon Koo),김의경,이정민 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기타연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

오늘날 산촌은 인구 과소화, 낮은 소득수준, 열악한 생활환경 수준 등의 문제를 안고 있다. 산촌의 농가 호당 소득은 도시근교나 평야지대의 70~80%에 불과하며, 극심한 인구유출과 고령화로 촌락의 존립조차 위기에 처해있다. 이와 같은 산촌문제를 방치할 경우 국토 공간이용의 비효율성에서 비롯되는 사회적 비용이 심각하게 증가할 수 있다. 산촌의 중요성이 대두되면서 2003년 전국 단위의 산촌기초조사가 실시되어 산촌의 정주여건과 생활환경, 경제사정 등이 조사되었다. 이 조사는 통계자료로서 유용하지만 산촌의 전통과 문화, 주민 의식의 변화를 설명하는 데 한계가 있다. 산촌에 대한 폭넓고 깊은 연구를 위해서는 시간의 흐름에 따른 산촌의 사회경제적 변화와 정주공간으로서의 산촌, 생태공간과 문화공간으로서의 산촌, 경제영역으로서의 산촌 등 다양한 접근을 통한 분석이 필요하다. 이 연구는 다학제적이고 연속적인 산촌 사회경제 조사를 위한 기초연구로서, 선행연구 분석과 조사항목 설정을 목적으로 하고 있다. 우리나라에서 산촌은 산림면적 비율이 현저히 높고 인구밀도가 낮은 지역으로 산림면적 비율이 70% 이상이며, 인구밀도가 전국 읍·면의 평균 이하이고, 경지면적 비율이 전국 읍·면의 평균 이하인 지역으로 정의된다. 이러한 조건을 고려하면 산촌은 419개 읍·면으로, 국토면적의 46%, 임야의 58%를 차지하는 방대한 지역이다. 그럼에도 낮은 소득과 열악한 정주환경으로 인구유출이 심화되어 인구의 4%가 거주하는 과소지역으로 분류된다. 이러한 분류는 산촌의 고유 특징을 반영하기 어려우므로 경제지표(예를 들면 산림 관련 사업에 종사하는 인구의 비율)를 반영하는 개념이 필요하다. 산촌의 인구 증감과 인구변동을 살펴보면 지난 20년간 산촌의 인구는 급격히 감소하였고 노령화 지수는 상승하여 왔다. 코호트변화율법을 활용한 연령별 특성을 분석한 결과 10~30대의 젊은 층의 인구 유출이 많고 40대 이상 장년층의 유입이 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 이는 교육과 취업을 기회로 젊은 세대의 비산촌지역으로의 이동이 많고, 최근 들어 은퇴 후 귀농·귀촌의 관심이 증대한 것에 따른 경향으로 보인다. 현재와 같은 추세가 지속된다면 2030년 산촌인구는 68만 명으로 감소하며 노령화 지수는 1,035로 상승한다. 이는 산촌이 촌락으로서 지속하기 어렵다는 것을 보여준다. 산촌의 붕괴는 국토의 균형발전과 지속가능한 산림경영에도 심각한 문제를 초래하므로 산촌 경제의 활성화를 위한 정책적 개입이 필요하다. 산촌 사회경제 조사를 위한 조사표를 작성하였다. 조사표 작성은 산촌의 지속가능성 평가를 목적으로 하여 자연환경, 사회문화, 경제 세 부문으로 나누어 세부항목을 설정하였다. 조사표의 검증을 위해 전문가와 산촌 관계자를 대상으로 예비조사를 실시하였다. 기존의 산촌연구가 물리적 환경과 경제지표에만 중점을 둔 조사인데 반해 본 조사는 산촌인구의 동태적 특성을 분석하고 종합적 접근을 통해 지속가능성 평가지표를 마련한 것에 큰 의미가 있다. 산촌 연구의 필요성에 비하여 산촌에 대한 기초 통계자료를 확보하는 데 어려움이 있었다. 산촌 연구의 활성화를 위해 관련된 통계 DB를 구축하는 것이 필요하다. This study aims to examine the current status of mountain villages, analyze the characteristics of population change and make the population projection in the mountainous area and establish a questionnaire for the socio-economic survey of mountain villages. The report is organized as follows. First, we examine the notion and characteristics of mountain villages by reviewing literatures. Second, we analyze the characteristics of population change and make population projection in mountainous areas, employing the cohort-change ratios method. Finally, we propose the questionnaire for the microscopic survey of mountain villages. Mountainous areas are defined as towns (eup or myeon) with a forest ratio of more than 70 percent, population density under 111 per square kilometers, and a plowland ratio of less than 21 percent. The population in mountainous areas has decreased dramatically, while the ageing index has increased. To make the population projection, the cohort-change ratios method is applied. Cohort-change ratios revealed that the multitude of young generation moved to cities to find education and job chances, and some matured generation people over 40 moved to mountainous areas. This continuing trend will culminate in 680 thousand people and 1,035 ageing index in 2030, which brings about unbalanced land development and inefficient forest management. In order to address these issues, policy makers need to develop some stimulus plans that revitalize and stabilize the economy of mountainous areas. For the purpose of the sustainability assessment of mountain villages, a questionnaire classified as three sectors, including environmental, social, and economic sectors, was developed and investigated by stakeholders that include residents and specialists in the mountain village. As for the environmental sector of the indicators, "the harmonization of residential areas and surroundings", "water pollution", and "potential for development of natural resources" appeared to be important. In the social sector, indicators for human resources such as the existence of a community leader are considered the most essential factor, while in the economic sector the competitiveness of local products appeared to be important. It is noteworthy that the indicators in this study unlike others not merely focus on physical and economic aspects but encompass social and human resources factors. Maintaining and revitalizing the local society and economy are crucial to seek the balanced development and improve the public benefit of forests. To develop the monitoring scheme that observes and improves the sustainable indicators, support and research on mountain villages should be provided.

국민행복시대의 중장기 산림정책 추진전략(2/2차연도)

석현덕(Hyun-Deok Seok),장철수(Cheol-Su Chang),민경택(Kyung-Taek Min),정호근(Ho-Gun Chong),이요한(Yo-Han Lee),안선진(Sun-Jin Ahn),박소희(So-Hee Park),김명은(Myeong-Eun, Kim),최세균 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

농림업 후방연관산업의 전략적 발전방안(2/3차연도)

강창용(Chang-Yong Kang),김수석(Soo-Suk Kim),정호근(Ho-gun Chong),한혜성(Hye-Sung Han),최세균,Hyun-Tae Park 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

녹색성장에 대응한 중장기 산림정책 추진전략(1/2차 연도)

석현덕(Hyun-Deok Suck),장철수(Cheol-Su Chang),민경택(Kyung-Taek Min),정호근(Ho-Gun Chong),안선진(Sun-Jin Ahn),박소희(So-Hee Park),조국훈(Gook-Hoon Cho) 한국농촌경제연구원 2012 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-