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정창무(Jung Chang-Mu) 대한건축학회 2007 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.23 No.12
Multi regression models of quality of life are developed using data from the Social Statistics Survey 2004-06 of National statistical Office in Korea. Life satisfaction, housing and neighbourhood satisfaction, family life satisfaction, and leisure satisfaction were explained by various measurable socioeconomic and cultural factors, which is the first attempt in QOL research areas in Korea. Relationships among life satisfaction, leisure satisfaction, and neighbourhood satisfaction are strong. Statistical treatment of the data indicates a positive and significant relationship between life satisfaction and neighbourhood satisfaction. Neighbourhood satisfaction is found to be the best predictor of life satisfaction.
정창무(Chang Mu Jung),이춘근(Chun-Keun Lee) 한국경제연구원 2004 규제연구 Vol.13 No.1
이 글은 수도권 공간구조의 적정성을 집적의 이익과 비용이란 측면에서 일본 동경도의 경우와 비교ㆍ검토한 글이다. 수도권이 과도한 집중과 혼잡으로 경쟁력을 상실해 가고 있으며, 과도한 집중은 교통혼잡, 환경오염, 토지 및 주택부족 등 집적의 불경제를 발생시켜 국가경쟁력을 잠식하는 요인이 되고 있다는 주장을, 인구와 고용분포를 통해 본 공간구조의 적정성이란 견지에서 실증적으로 검토하였다. 집적의 이익과 비용을 측정할 수 있는, 임금과 주간인구밀도간, 가구수입과 야간밀도간의 관계식을 도출하였으며, 분석자료는 1998년을 기준연도로 하는 서울과 인천, 경기도내 66개 시군구의 소득과 임금, 인구수 등을 활용하였다. 집적의 이익을 나타내는 주간인구밀도와 임금간의 관계, 집적의 비용을 나타내는 야간인구밀도와 주민 일인당 소득간의 관계를 검토한 결과, 수도권 전체적으로 집적의 이익이 집적의 비용보다 크게 나타났다. 수도권 공간구조를 일본의 동경권과 비교할 경우, 동경권의 공간구조는 도심지역에서 집적의 이익보다는 비용이 크게 나타나지만, 외곽에서는 이익과 비용이 균형을 이루는 자연스런 모습을 보이는 데 반해, 우리나라의 경우는 수도권 외곽에서도 집적의 이익이 비용보다 커서, 향후에도 수도권에 대한 인구와 산업집중의 경제적 유인이 작용할 것으로 예상된다. This paper presents a case study on the optimality of population distribution within the Seoul Metropolitan area from the viewpoint of agglomeration economies and diseconomies. If a benefit and cost function can be derived from 'urban business firms and households' behaviour, it can be shown that economies and diseconomies of agglomeration are dependent on the distribution of the daytime and nighttime populations, respectively. The natural-logarithm cubic-spline function approach is applied to estimate the costs of congesting functions and the benefits of agglomeration functions. The results show that the benefits of agglomeration is still higher than the costs of congesting in the Seoul Metropolitan area, impling a centripetal tendency towards the Seoul metropolitan area in the future.
정창무(Jung Chang-Mu) 대한건축학회 2008 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.24 No.2
It is quite obvious that residential construction should depend on the population's age structure. For that reason, it has become common for Korean housing market researchers to use modified versions of Mankiw-Weil model(1989) to forecast long-term housing demand in Korea. As Mankiw and Weil suggest, age effects on residential investment may be robust in industrialized world where housing stocks are abundant. Yet, income effects rather than age effects would be the main cause of increased housing demand in developing countries where housing stocks remain scarce. This article demonstrates Mankiw-Weil's model estimating future housing demands is not appropriate for Korean housing market and suggest a new model. The model based on the assumption that housing demand per person is increasing as personal income goes up is more appropriate to explain the rate of housing price change than Mankiw-Wail's one. To do this, we estimate a simple housing demand function based on GDP per capita with Korean census data and do a housing supply gap analysis. The housing supply gap is the shortage (or excess) of increased housing supply relative to increased housing demand. The gap is measured as the change in total building permit of residential housing sector between the 1985 and 2005. To validate the estimated gap, we applied it to identify housing price movement in metropolitan Seoul area. The analysis shows that the gap is better than the gap based on Mankiw-Wail's assumption to explain housing price pattern in Seoul metropolitan area in Korea.
정창무(Jung Chang-Mu) 대한건축학회 2008 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.24 No.7
The study of household formation is important for the real estate industry, because such demographic changes and patterns determine the level of demand for residential real estate. This paper investigates the effect of household formation on jeonsei price and housing rent. Most of empirical research on housing market in Korea have not been tested before in models and hence this study enriches the knowledge on the relationship of housing market and household formation and its consequent potential demand for rental and ownership housing units in terms of housing rent and jeonsei price. Parameter estimates reveal a considerable response of jeonsei price and monthly rent not only to general marriage rate but also other socio-economic variables. As a general marriage rate goes up, jeonsei and monthly rent increase. Analysis of housing market ignoring the endogeneity of household formation is thus potentially biased.
정창무(Jung Chang-Mu),권오현(Kwon Oh-Hyun) 대한건축학회 2009 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.25 No.12
The purpose of this study is to find out a basis on enacting development density which is raising conflict between local governments and developers recently. For this study we investigated the relationship between floor area ratio and housing price using ridge regression model, and also relationship between floor area ratio and business profitability using feasibility study. As a result, it seems that the floor area ratio was about 230% when the apartment price is at the maximum. The floor area ratio when business profitability is at the most is differs in 300∼380% by the development methods. Therefore, 230% floor area ratio is proper for the long-term residential amenity than short-term profitability. Addition to that, further research is required for the profit of the developers.