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The objective of this paper is to examine current North Korea's crisis situation created by complex and accumulated problems such as economic difficulties and food shortages, and then to examine and evaluate conceivable scenarios or pathways to North Korean reforms or collapse. This paper also attempts to find a desirable and safe pathway to deal with the North Korean socialist system in trouble. South Korea and the major powers surrounding the Korean peninsula worry about a possibility of sudden collapse of North Korea because it can create chaotic and unstable situation in the Northeast Asian region, including the Korean peninsula. Like it or not, many outside specialists express pessimistic views on North Korea's capability to overcome difficulties and to successfully change. For instance, Commander of the U. S. Forces in Korea General Luck, in his testimony at the House of Representative on March 13, stated that the collapse of North Korea is not a matter of probability, but a matter of 'when' and 'how' He maintained that due to the deteriorating economic situation in the North, the breakdown of the North Korean socialist system is a foregone conclusion, and the remaining issue is when and how North Korea will collapse. Most specialists on North Korean affairs seem to agree on that North Korea is experiencing serious economic difficulties. But their prospects for the survival and changes in North Korean socialist system and their viewpoints regarding North Korean pattern of change are different.. Western as well as South Korean scholars usually hold pessimistic views about North Korea's future, anticipating early or sudden collapse in the near future, whereas Chinese and Russian specialists maintain relatively optimistic view with regard to North Korea's ability to adapt to changing security environmnet. Despite apparent weakness and signs of collapse, in an uncertain post-cold war era, North Korea so far survived, and it does not show any sign of immediate danger. Domestically, the North Korean leadership and the party effectively wield power and demonstrates firm control over the military organization and the police forces as well as over the people's daily life. It is fair to say that the North Korean socialist system did not lose, albeit weakened, such system capabilities as regulatory and penetrative capabilities, although it suffers from insufficient extractive and distributive performance. North Korea's change is inevitable, but it is not easy to correctly guess how North Korea will be changed. There are many contending pathways to reforms or collapse of North Korea. Julian Birch examines four possible pathways to the end goals: reform initiated from above, bottom up reform, revolution from below, and external intervention. Harding argues that limited reform initiated by the North Korean leadership become more aggressive, and then the system began to decline, leading to ultimate collapse of the system in crisis. Brzezinski suggests, in his book 'Grand Failure'(1989), four phases in the retreat from communism: Communist Totalitarianism(phase 1), Communist Authoritarianism(phase 2), Post-Communist Authoritarianism (phase 3), and Post-Communist Pluralism( phase 4). North Korea rejected and resented Gorbachev style reform from above which soon became uncontrollable. It expresses its concern about Chinses reform, but its leadership has showed misgivings about the undesirable consequences of aggressive Chinese economic reforms and opening. North Korea despised the Hungarian and the Polish reforms, and shocked by the outbreak of the brief Romanian civil war and the followed swift execution of Ceausescu and his wife. North Korean leadership presumably appreciate the necessity of reforms, but radical reform means political risk-taking. North Korea seems determined not to repeat the Gorbachev s mistakes, and it is still reluctant and cautious to apply the Deng' s Chinese reform model. The legacy of Kim Il Sung, the Stalinist economic system, the shortcomings in political and practical activities, and rigid bureaucracy make it difficult for Kim Jong Il to attempt a significant change. Since Kim Jong Il has ruled the country with his deceased father for the last twenty years, he can not correct what kim Il Sung did or said at his will. As a matter of fact, he is also responsible for policy failures and mismanagements. As for Kim Jong Il, he does not have promising alternatives. In short, It is unlikely that he can take drastic reform measures to revitalize the North Korean socialist system in stalemate. He shall probably muddle through as the internal and external environments dictate. Believe it or not, South Korea should be prepared against the sudden collapse of North Korea, although such a possibility is slim. In the mean time, we would be better act as though the North Korean system can last for a considerable period of time, and need to further develop our North Korea policy in a long-term national interest perspective. If we can have transparent vision and objectives on our relationship with North Korea and on the unified Korea, we can avoid unnecesary confusion and wasting invaluable resources and time. If North Korea is a disabled aircraft, all the neighbors, South Korea and the four major powers, should help North Korea's soft landing, which in turn promotes peace and stability in the Northeast Asian region.
- Level 3 PSA(사고결말분석)는 원자력 발전소의 사고 시 누출된 방사성 핵종으로 인해 야기되는 환경 및 인체에 미치는 영향(공중위험도)을 평가하는 것이다. 본 논문에서는 원자력 발전소의 중대사고시 환경으로 방출되는 방사성물질의 방출특성과 그 결과로 인체에 미치는 영향에 대하여 확률론적 사고영향분석코드인 MACCS를 이용하여 평가하였다. 이러한 평가는 관련 변수들의 상대적 중요도를 파악하는데 유용할 뿐만 아니라 소외리스크(Offsite Risk)를 최소화시키기 위한 대책개발에 있어 중요한 지표가 될 수 있다. 특히 방출고도, 열 함량, 방출기간의 3가지 중요 변수를 선정하여, 이들 변수들의 변화에 따라 영향을 받는 조기사망자 수와 암 사망자 수의 변화를 분석하였다. 또한, 참조원전의 위험성 평가를 위하여 IPE(Individual Plant Examination)에서 제시된 STC(Source Term Category) 19가지 시나리오에 대한 각 사고별 빈도와 MACCS코드를 수행한 결과값을 이용하여 참조원전의 위험성 평가를 수행하였다.
As the recognition of the history of man in the perspective of the world history expands, the study of world history has been established as an independent field which is known as global village history. This development originates from the recent trends where the need for mutual understanding, and political, economic, social, and cultural exchange are growing. In particular, the utilitarian approach in diplomacy and economic policy is accelerating the process of the deemphasizing ideologies, thereby promoting further polarization and internationalization. This study has been initiated with the understanding that the importance of education in terms of world history is growing in this age of internationalization where global inter-dependency is prevalent. Thus we need to search for a more desirable form of education, in terms of world history, in order to cope with this trend. For Korea and Taiwan, we can not overemphasize the importance of history education in the preparation for this age of unification and internationalization. The methodology of this comparative study is as follows: First, the external magnitude and structure of the textbooks of Korea and Taiwan are analyzed and compared. Second, the structure of the description of the content are analyzed and compared. Third, there is a comparative analysis of the individual figures appearing in texts from both countries, as well as an analysis of the usages of study aids. Based on the results if this study, suggestions of the compilation of the world history textbooks for junior high school students are provided to conclude this study. Issues Related to Polity 1. The importance of education should be stressed at a national level. In particular, textbooks should be improved both in quality and quantity. In order to achieve this objective the establishment of a permanent organization is required. 2. Steps need to be taken to increase the interest of scholars in policies relating to world history education. There is a critical need for scholars capable of handling historical studies in the newly emerging countries in both the eastern and western hemispheres. Issues Related to Textbook Compilation 1. Basically, a new viewpoint of history-global village history, macro and unified in nature should be established. 2. Moreover, there is a need to interrelate and harmonize education with national history. 3. There are several issues which are related to the content of textbooks. A) The content of textbooks should be reoriented from description of factual information for memorization to descriptions requiring analysis and thinking. B) The content should break away from simple collection of historical description on individual countries of the east and the west. C) History written only from the prevailing Eurocentric and power-centered perspective should be reoriented. D) History which focuses solely on "political domain" should be avoided. E) The establishment of a descriptive system centered on modern and contemporary history should be emphasized. F) The relevance of presenting history in units beginning with ancient history and ending with contemporary history should be reassessed. G) The relevance of chronology in terms of the presentation of Western history and Asian history in parallel fashion should be reassessed. H) More careful consideration is required in presenting more adequate historical facts and in using proper terms for the junior high school curriculums. I) The use of concrete and more friendly educational aids should be diversified and activated. J) There needs to be an emphasis on new studies that recognize common people as the subject of the history. K) Descriptions explaining the trends of contemporary mass culture should be emphasized.
The organic carbon (OC) distribution of Pinus densiflora forest in Songgye valley at Mt. WorakNational Park were studied as a part of the National Long-Term Ecological Research in Korea. In order to investigate the OC distribution, OC in plant biomass, litterfall, litter layer on forest floor, and soil were estimated. The density of P. densiflora forest was 1,300 trees/ha, average DBH was 10.72.56 m. The shrub layer was dominated by shrubby Quercus variabilis, Fraxinus sieboldiana and Indigofera kirilowi with low frequency, and herb layer was dominated by Pteridium aquilinum and Miscanthus sinensis. Total amount of OC stored in this pine forest was 142.78 ton C/ha. Organic carbon stored in soil and plant biomass accounted for 59.2% and 37.8%, respectively. Amount of OC distributed in trees, shrubs, herbs and litter layer in this pine forest was 51.79, 2.03, 0.12 and 4.29 ton C/ha, respectively. Amount of OC returned to forest flor via litterfall was 1.50 ton C ha-1 yr-1Total amount of SOC within 50 cm soil depth was 84.55 ton C ha-1 50 cm-depth-1.