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북한의 대남혁명전략 변화에 대한 연구: 노동당 규약 내용을 중심으로
이해룡,정주섭 한국치안행정학회 2023 한국치안행정논집 Vol.20 No.1
In January 2021, North Korea held the 8th Congress of the Workers’ Party and drastically revised the provisions of the Revolution against South Korea in the preface of the Party Rules. The term ‘National Liberation Democratic Revolution’, which refers to the Red Revolution in South Korea, was deleted from the immediate purpose of the Workers’ Party and replaced with another term. In addition, the phrase ‘supporting the struggle of the South Korean people’ was deleted from the provisions related to unification in the rules of Workers’ Party, and Instead, a new phrase was added: ‘Accelerate unification with a strong national defense force’. In addition to this, there are many things in the revised rules that can infer changes in the situation of Kim Jong-un's rule. This revision of the rules of Workers’ Party can be considered as North Korea's abandonment of the Red Revolution against South Korea or a revision of its revolutionary strategy against South Korea. Many scholars have analyzed this problem and offered opinions. Some people suggested that the revision of the rules of Workers’ Party was merely a change of word and did not give up the strategy against the revolution in South Korea, while others argued that North Korea gave up or mitigated the unrealistic goal of the revolution in South Korea. The purpose of this study is to find out the meaning of the changes in the regulations related to the revolution against South Korea as stipulated in the North Korean Workers' Party Rules, and to seek policy implications for the promotion of security and unification policies. The research method focused on securing objective grounds for the actual change of the revolutionary strategy against South Korea by examining North Korean original texts such as various North Korean dictionaries related to the strategy for the revolution against South Korea, Kim Il-sung's writings, and the guidelines for the revolution against South Korea. The results of the study on the amendments to the rules of Workers’ Party are as follows. First, the revision of ‘National Liberation Democratic Revolution’ to ‘independent and democratic development’ was replaced by other terms with the same meaning, and it was judged that the meaning was the same and the essence did not change. This was confirmed by tracing the linguistic characteristics used by North Korea and the actual use of these terms by Kim Il-sung. Second, the phrase ‘supporting the struggle of the South Korean people’, which was included in the ‘unification’ clause, was deleted, but instead moved to the ‘united front’ clause, and it was confirmed that the original meaning was maintained by using a different term. Third, the newly added phrase of ‘advance unification with strong national defense’is judged to indicate Kim Jong-un’s confidence in completing nuclear weapons development and his willingness to actively utilize it for his revolutionary strategy against South Korea. Fourth, Kim Jong-un deleted all phrases about the cult of personality about Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un, which accounted for about 30% of the existing preamble to the Workers’ Party Rules. And instead of deleting terms such as ‘military-first politics’ and ‘among our nation,’phrases related to communism were restored, which makes it possible to infer some of Kim Jong-un’s ruling tendencies. In the future, Kim Jong-un is highly likely to pursue an aggressive revolutionary strategy against South Korea using nuclear weapons. Accordingly, we must prepare security guarantee measures in response to North Korea's direct or indirect nuclear attack. In addition, it is necessary to clearly recognize the reality of propaganda for peace, unification, and denuclearization that North Korea is developing as a revolutionary strategy toward South Korea, and conduct in-depth research related to this.
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두만강 하류 밀강 지역의 산림성 포유류 풍부도와 점유율
이해룡,최창용 한국환경생태학회 2023 한국환경생태학회지 Vol.37 No.6
두만강 하류의 숲은 북한, 중국, 러시아를 연결하는 중요한 산림생태계로서, 국제적인 멸종위기종인 호랑이(Panthera tigris)와 표범(Panthera pardus)을 포함한 다양한 야생동물들에게 서식환경과 이동경로를 제공하여 준다. 본 연구는 두만강 하류, 특히 중국과 북한을 연결하는 잠재적인 생태통로로서 한반도의 생물다양성 보전과 복원에 중요한 역할을 할 수 있는 밀강 지역에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 2019년 5월부터 2021년 5월까지 이 지역에 설치한 48대의 무인센서카메라를 통해 출현하는 포유류 종을 확인하고 그들의 상대개체수와 점유율 및 분포 현황을 파악하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 그 결과 총 18종의 포유류가 밀강 지역에 서식하고 있으며, 그 중에는 호랑이와 표범 등 대형 육식동물도 포함되고 있음을 확인하였다. 이 지역의 주요 포유류인 유제류 4종에 대한 점유율과 탐지율, 분포를 추정한 결과, 특히 노루(Capreolus pygargus)와 멧돼지(Sus scrofa)가 높은 점유율을 보였다. 노루는 모든 지역에 분포하며 예측 점유율은 0.97로 높게 나타났으나, 고도, 도시 주거용지, 패치 밀도 등의 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 멧돼지는 0.73의 예측 점유율을 보이며 전 지역에 분포했으며, 습지 비율, 방목 강도, 사면에 대한 공간이질성 등의 인자가 점유율과 탐지율에 영향을 주었다. 꽃사슴(Cervus nippon)의 예측 점유율은 0.48로서 특정 지역에 국한되어 분포하였으며, 경사도와 서식지 파편화 다양성이 탐지율에, 방목 강도와 개방된 숲의 비율이 점유율에 각각 영향을 주었다. 고라니(Hydropotes inermis)는 아주 낮은 점유율(0.06)을 보이며 두만강 유역을 따라 분포했으며, 고도가 낮은 곳의 점유율이 높고 사면의 공간이질성이 높은 곳에서 탐지율이 높았다. 본 연구는 밀강 지역이 두만강 하류의 다양한 포유류 개체군을 유지하는 서식지인 동시에, 동물의 이동성과 서식지의 연결성을 유지하는 잠재적 생태통로로서 중요한 역할을 할 수 있음을 확인하였다. 동시에 본 연구에서 개발된 점유율 예측 모형은 향후 인간의 교란에 노출된 두만강 유역의 포유류 분포를 예측하고 국경지대의 생태통로를 파악하고 보호하는 데 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. The forest in the lower Tumen River serves as an important ecosystem spanning the territories of North Korea, Russia, and China, and it provides habitat and movement corridors for diverse mammals, including the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris) and Amur leopard (Panthera pardus). This study focuses on the Mijiang area, situated as a potential ecological corridor connecting North Korea and China in the lower Tumen River, playing a crucial role in conserving and restoring the biodiversity of the Korean Peninsula. This study aimed to identify mammal species and estimate their relative abundance, occupancy, and distribution based on the 48 camera traps installed in the Mijiang area from May 2019 to May 2021. The results confirmed the presence of 18 mammal species in the Mijiang area, including large carnivores like tigers and leopards. Among the dominant mammals, four species of ungulates showed high occupancy and detection rates, particularly the Roe deer (Capreolus pygargus) and Wild boar (Sus scrofa). The roe deer was distributed across all areas with a predicted high occupancy rate of 0.97, influenced by altitude, urban residential areas, and patch density. Wild boars showed a predicted occupancy rate of 0.73 and were distributed throughout the entire area, with factors such as wetland ratio, grazing intensity, and spatial heterogeneity in aspects of the landscape influencing their occupancy and detection rates. Sika deer (Cervus nippon) exhibited a predicted occupancy rate of 0.48, confined to specific areas, influenced by slope, habitat fragmentation diversity affecting detection rates, and the ratio of open forests impacting occupancy. Water deer (Hydropotes inermis) displayed a very low occupancy rate of 0.06 along the Tumen River Basin, with higher occupancy in lower altitude areas and increased detection inlocations with high spatial heterogeneity in aspects. This study confirmed that the Mijiang area serves as a habitat supporting diverse mammals in the lower Tumen River while also playing a crucial role in facilitating animal movement and habitat connectivity. Additionally, the occupancy prediction model developed in this study is expected to contribute to predicting mammal distribution within the disrupted Tumen River basin due to human interference and identifying and protecting potential ecological corridors in this transboundary region.
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