회계이익의 질이 IPO기업의 장기성과에 미치는 영향 : 적정주가 괴리율의 매개효과를 중심으로

이진훤,이포상 경성대학교 산업개발연구소 2020 산업혁신연구 Vol.36 No.1

본 연구는 최근 발생하고 있는 공모주에 대한 고평가 현상이 기업의 이익조정 행위로 인한 것인지와 이러한 이익조정 행위가 IPO기업의 장기성과에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 살펴보고자 한다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 2007년부터 2016년까지 한국거래소에 상장된 기업의 회계이익 의 질과 IPO 이후 장기 주식성과를 분석한다. 특히 회계이익의 질과 장기성과간의 관계에서 공 모가와 적정주가 사이의 괴리율이 어떠한 역할을 하는지를 살펴보고자 한다. 이러한 세 가지 요 인들의 관계를 살펴보기 위하여 본 연구에서는 매개회귀분석을 실시하며, 회계이익의 질은 재량 적발생액으로, 괴리율은 공모가격과 상대가치평가모형을 적용하여 계산된 적정주가의 비율로 계 산한다. 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫 번째, 회계이익의 질이 좋을수록 공모가격-적정주가 괴 리율은 감소한다. 둘째, 회계이익의 질이 좋을수록 기업의 장기 주식성과는 증가한다. 마지막으 로 공모가-적정주가 괴리율이 클수록 기업의 장기성과는 하락하며, 공모가-적정주가 괴리율의 매개효과를 부분적으로 확인하였다. 즉, 상장 이전 상향 이익조정을 통하여 신규공모주의 과대 평가를 가져오게 되고 이는 장기적인 주식 가치의 하락으로 이루어진다는 것을 의미하는 결과 이다. 본 연구는 IPO기업의 장기 저성과에 대한 현상을 회계이익의 질과 적정주가 괴리율의 관계를 통하여 실증분석 하였다는 점에서 의미를 갖는다. 또한 공모가 저평가 현상에 의지하고 있는 잘 못된 투자관행에 대한 경각심을 줄 뿐만 아니라 신규상장기업의 최초 공모주 발행시 정부의 감 독과 공모가격결정에 관한 정책 의사결정에 참고자료로 유용할 것으로 기대된다. This study is designed to see whether overpriced IPO is caused from firm’s earnings management, and how effects this to IPO firm’s long-term performance. To examine addressed above, we take a look into how firm’s earning quality listing on Korea Exchange in 2007 through 2016 is related with long-term stock performance post IPO. Especially, we measure how associated the disparate ratio between offer price and fair price with earnings quality and long-term performance. To examine these three factors, ‘three-step mediated regression analysis method’ is used. Earnings quality’s calculated by discretionary accruals. Disparate ratio is calculated with offer price and estimating share price‘s rate measured by applying relative valuation model. To sum up, it is as follows. At first, as earnings quality gets high, the disparate ratio between offer price and fair price gets reduced. Secondly, as earnings quality gets high, firm’s long term stock performance follows high. At last, as the disparate ratio between offer price and fair price gets increased, firm’s long-term stock performance gets decreased. Moreover, mediation effect of the disparate ratio between offer price and fair price is partially found. Thus, it addresses that raised earnings revision before listing is resulted in overpricing of the IPO, and it also leads to poor long term stock performance. This study contributes that empirical analysis is applied to examine long-term under performance using disparate ratio between offer price and fair price. Moreover, this is useful not only to alert investors to risky investing pattern, but to provide informative reference to financial institutions in making policies or decisions about IPO.

The Impact of Reporting Quality on Crash Risks in the Korean Stock Market

이진훤,조장연,임채창 한국회계학회 2014 회계학연구 Vol.39 No.2

This paper examines the determinants of a stock crash and aims to find whether reporting transparency has any effect on an extreme stock crash. More specifically, it delves into the quest of whether reporting transparency, as one of the determinants, has any effect on a stock crash in the Korean stock market. To analyze this possible relation, we employ companies with a stock crash record from 2006 to 2011 and use accruals quality, innate accruals quality and discretionary accruals quality as proxies for transparency. Furthermore, we adopt the proportional hazard model (Cox 1972) and PWP model (Prentice et al. 1981) for our analysis. The result conveys that accruals quality, innate accruals quality and discretionary accruals quality have a significant negative relation with stock crash risk. This indicates that the lower the accruals quality, the more likelihood of stock crash risk and that these variables can be used as indicators that can predict the possibility of crash risk. We also study whether the monitoring effect, estimated by institutional investors' trading ratio, affects transparency and crash risk. The result reveals the differences in innate accruals quality and discretionary quality under the monitoring of institutional investors. Moreover, greater involvement of institutional investors in transactions leads to a weak influence of innate accruals quality as well as a strong influence of discretionary accruals quality on a stock crash. In contrast, less involvement of institutional investors in market transactions reveals a weak relation between innate accruals quality and stock crash risk and no significant relation between discretionary accruals quality and stock crash. We conclude that the monitoring by institutional investors enhances discretionary accruals quality. However, when investors misinterpret the managers’ opportunistic behavior, the possibility of stock crash risk can increase. In addition, firms that receive relatively less interest from institutional investors are more likely to not make use of their accounting information effectively.

감사인지정제도가 KOSDAQ IPO 시장의 효율성에 미치는 효과

이진훤,김경순 강원대학교 경영경제연구소 2023 Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Vol.14 No.3

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate whether the auditor accreditation system for IPO firms improves the efficiency of the KOSDAQ IPO market. To verify the effectiveness of the auditor designation system, we time series compare four measures of IPO firms (earnings management, long-term stock performance, change in operating performance, and possibility of delisting). Design/methodology/approach - We test the hypothesis through event research method and regression analysis. Specifically, the dependent variables of the regression model are discretionary accruals in the year of IPO, 36-month holding period excess return after IPO, change in operating performance for 3 years after IPO, and dummy variable for delisting. And the explanatory variable is a dummy variable that separates the period before and after the implementation of the auditor designation system. Findings - We find that earnings management and delisting risks decreased more in the period after the implementation of the auditor accreditation system than in the previous period. In addition, we find that long-term stock performance and operating performance after IPO increase further after the implementation of the auditor accreditation system. Research implications or Originality - Overall, the results of this study suggest that the implementation of the auditor accreditation system for IPO firms contributes to improving market efficiency in the KOSDAQ market, where information asymmetry is high. Our study differs from previous studies in that it demonstrates the effectiveness of the auditor designation system using various measures.

공정가치평가의 유용성에 관한 연구 : 유형자산 재평가모형을 대상으로

이진훤,조장연 한국외국어대학교 지식출판콘텐츠원 글로벌경영연구소 2010 글로벌경영연구 = Journal of global business research Vol.22 No.3

The purpose of this study is to test how the newly adopted K-GAAP, signifying the adoption of tangible assets revaluation model, has affected the value relevance of accounting information. We adopted 193 sample firms which utilized the asset revaluation during the years, 2008 and 2009 and employed 193 control firms, matched by firm size and industry. Besides, we performed the pre- and post- tests for the test years (revaluation year 2008 and 2009) and pre-tested 3 years. Results show that the value relevance of accounting model is affected significantly whether they employed the revaluation model or not for the test period. Specifically, for the revaluation adopted firms, there was little difference in accounting information when the value relevance was for both test year. However, for the non-revaluation firms, significant difference in value relevance was documented after test sample firms adopted asset revaluation. Further tests reveal that in the year 2008, the value relevance of tangible assets increased significantly for high leverage firms, which support the motivation hypothesis that adopting revaluation is mainly motivated by improving capital structure. Contrarily, in the year 2009, only low leverage firms showed the value relevance of information relevance. This indicated that in the year 2009, motivation for relevance was different from the previous year such that high quality firms adopted the revaluation model to comply with K-GAAP. Overall, these results imply that fair value measurement improve the value relevance of accounting information. These findings are timely meaningful since we are now fully adopting IFRS as our accounting standards.

사옥신축목적 시설투자의 장기성과와 정보비대칭 현상에 대한 실증연구

이진훤,이포상 한국디지털정책학회 2021 디지털융복합연구 Vol.19 No.3

주식분할 공시에 대한 장 ‧ 단기 효과: 결정요인 분석을 중심으로

이진훤,김경순 강원대학교 경영경제연구소 2023 Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Vol.14 No.1

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to re-examine the disclosure effect of stock splits and long-term performance after stock splits using stock split data over the past 10 years, and infer the motivation (signal or opportunism) of stock splits. In addition, we focus on exploring the determinants of the short- and long-term market response to stock splits. Design/methodology/approach - We measure the short-term market response to a stock split and the long-term stock performance after the stock split announcement using the event study method. We analyze whether there is a difference in the long-term and short-term market response to a stock split according to various company characteristics through univariate analysis and regression analysis. Findings - In the case of the entire sample, a statistically significant positive excess return is observed on the stock split announcement date, and the excess return during the 24-month holding period after the stock split do not show a difference from zero. In particular, the difference between short-term and long-term returns on stock splits is larger in companies with a large stock split ratio, small companies, large growth potential, and companies with a combination of financial events after a stock split. Research implications or Originality - The results of this study suggest that at least the signal hypothesis for a stock split does not hold in the Korean stock market. On the other hand, it suggests that there is a possibility that a stock split can be abused by the manager's opportunistic motive, and that this opportunism can be discriminated depending on the size of the stock split, corporate characteristics, and financing plan.

회계이익의 질이 가치평가오류와 주가급락에 미치는 영향

이진훤,윤성용 한국회계정책학회 2015 회계와 정책연구 Vol.20 No.2

Investors consider accounting earnings as more important information than any other performance indicator, and not only the investors but also managers or analysts consider it as the most core performance indicator. However, many studies show that quality of accounting information is different from each other depending on firms and its low quality of accounting information can cause information asymmetry and stock crash. Accordingly, we study that the effect of valuation error and the possibility of stock crash through Korean capital market as the measurement of information risk measured with accrual quality. Moreover, we study the process that if the accrual quality effect on valuation error leads to stock crash. To sum up this study, as the accrual quality is lower, the valuation error happens more. The possibility of stock crash gets higher when the accrual quality is lower and the valuation error occurs a lot. Lastly, we have the result that valuation error has mediated effect through the mediated regression analysis method with the purpose to examine the possibility of stock crash. Also, it shows that the accrual quality effects on the valuation error lead to the high possibility of stock crash. This result has meaning as a prediction model for the stock crash which is considered as investors’s huge wealth losses and it also supports the prior study result that the quality of accounting information could be used as a proxy variable of information risk. Moreover, this study is meaningful in verifying the structural connectivity among the three variables such as accrual quality, valuation error and the possibility of stock crash. 투자자들은 회계이익을 다른 어떤 성과지표보다 중요한 기업정보로 판단하고 있으며, 경영자나 재무분석가 역시 회계이익을 가장 핵심적인 업적평가지표로 여기고 있다. 따라서 회계정보의 질은 어떠한 기업 정보 보다 중요하고 그 가치가 높다고 할 수 있다. 그러나 많은 연구에서 이러한 회계정보의 질은 기업마다 다르며 좋지 않은 회계정보의 질로 말미암아 정보비대칭 및 주가급락 현상이 나타날 수 있음을 보고하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서도 발생액의 질로 측정한 회계이익의 질이 실제 정보위험의 측정치로서 가치평가오류와 주가급락 가능성이 미치는 영향을 한국 자본시장을 통하여 살펴보았다. 뿐만 아니라 발생액의 질이 가치평가오류에 영향을 미치고 이로 인하여 주가급락이 나타나는지 일련의 과정을 분석하고자 하였다. 본 연구의 결과를 요약하면, 발생액의 질이 낮을수록 가치평가오류는 크게 나타난다. 또한 발생액의 질이 낮을수록, 가치평가오류가 클수록 주가급락 가능성이 높게 나타난다. 마지막으로 주가급락 현상의 과정을 살펴보기 위한 매개효과분석에서 가치평가오류는 유의한 매개효과를 가짐에 따라 발생액의 질이 가치평가오류에 영향을 미치고 이로 인하여 주가급락 가능성이 높아진다는 결과를 보고하였다. 이러한 결과는 투자자 부의 막대한 손실이라고 할 수 있는 주가급락 위험에 대한 예측모형으로도 의미를 가지며, 회계정보의 질이 정보위험의 대용치로 사용될 수 있다는 선행연구의 결과를 뒷받침하는 결과라 할 수 있다. 더 나아가 본 연구를 통하여 발생액의 질, 가치평가오류, 주가급락 가능성이라는 세 변수의 구조적 연계성을 확인하였다는데 본 연구의 의의가 있다고 할 수 있다.

회계이익과 이익공시 투명성이 주식분할 이후 변동성 이상 현상에 미치는 효과에 대한 연구

이진훤,김경순 한국국제회계학회 2022 국제회계연구 Vol.- No.106

[Purpose]This study focuses on empirically analyzing whether the anomaly in which volatility increases after a stock split is differentially determined by accounting earnings and earnings disclosure transparency. In addition, we investigate whether the intensity of the impact of accounting profit and earnings disclosure transparency on post-split volatility anomalies varies according to market types (KOSPI and KOSDAQ). [Methodology]Among listed companies, 357 samples of stock splits from 2005 to 2019 are analyzed using the event study methodology. The change in noise volatility after a stock split is calculated as the difference between the volatility ratio before and after the stock split. Accounting earnings is measured using the return on assets before the stock split, and transparency in earnings disclosure is measured using the simultaneous relationship between accounting earnings and stock price return. [Findings]We find that noise volatility after a stock split increases more in companies with low accounting earnings and poor transparency in earnings disclosure. In particular, such a relationship is strongly manifested in the KOSDAQ market. [Implications]Our results suggest that stock splits conducted by companies with low accounting earnings and poor disclosure quality increase heterogeneous expectations of noise traders due to high uncertainty about their motives, and consequently, further expand the volatility anomaly. [연구목적]본 연구는 주식분할 이후 변동성이 증가하는 이상 현상이 회계이익과 이익공시 투명성에 따라 차별적으로 결정되는지를 실증적으로 분석하는 것에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 더불어 회계이익과 이익공시의 투명성이 주식분할 이후 변동성 이상 현상에 미치는 효과의 강도가 시장 유형(KOSPI와 KOSDAQ) 간에 차이가 있는지를 조사한다. [연구방법]상장기업 중에서 2005년부터 2019년까지 주식분할을 실시한 357개 표본을 대상으로 사건연구방법을 사용하여 분석한다. 주식분할 이후 노이즈 변동성의 변화는 주식분할 전과 후의 변동성 비율의 차이로 계산한다. 회계이익은 주식분할 전 총자산이익률을 사용하고, 이익공시 투명성은 회계이익과 주가수익률 간의 동시적 연관관계를 이용하여 측정한다. [연구결과]주식분할 이후 노이즈 변동성은 회계이익이 낮은 기업과 이익공시 투명성이 불량한 기업에서 더 증가함을 발견하였다. 특히 이러한 관계는 KOSDAQ 시장에서 강하게 나타났다. [연구의 시사점]회계이익이 낮고 공시품질이 불량한 기업에서 실시하는 주식분할은 그 동기에 대한 모호성이 증가하여 투자자의 이질적 기대가 확대되며, 그 결과 주식분할 이후 변동성 이상 현상도 증가하는 경향이 있음을 시사한다.

사옥신축의 정보효과와 기업가치 결정요인에 대한 연구

이진훤(Jin-Hwon Lee),이포상(Po-Sang Lee) 강원대학교 경영경제연구소 2020 Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Vol.11 No.3

Purpose - This study examines the information effect of the disclosure of new office investments on the Korean stock market and investigates determinant of performance of sample firms. Design/methodology/approach - The sample consists of companies listed on the Korean Exchange that announced investments in new office construction for eleven-years from January 2007 to December 2017. It analyzes excess return using event study methodology and studies the determinants of abnormal return with multiple regression analysis. Findings - We find that abnormal returns of the short and long window are positive on average and statistically significant. In particular, CAR of high growth subsample is a larger positive return than that of the low one both short and long window. Difference in abnormal returns by investment size is observed only in short time window. But there is not observed difference by cash holding level. Research implications or Originality - This finding is able to be added to the evidence of the theory of corporate value maximization academically. Moreover, it shows the possibility that building a new office can have a positive effect on corporate value. It is expected to help investors make decisions because it can provide useful information to market participants in practice.

불성실공시 기업의 재무투명성과 투자자유형별 거래행태

이진훤(Jin Hwon Lee),박진우(Jinwoo Park) 한국증권학회 2015 한국증권학회지 Vol.44 No.5

본 논문에서는 유가증권시장과 코스닥 시장에 상장된 기업 중에서 2001년 8월부터 2011년 12월사이에 불성실공시법인으로 지정된 기업을 대상으로 재무투명성과 기관 및 외국인투자자의 투자행태에 따라 중장기 주가성과와 생존율 차이가 존재하는지 검증하고 있다. 분석결과, 첫째, 재무적 투명성이 낮은 기업일수록 불성실공시법인 지정의 부정적 공시효과가 크고 중장기 주가성과도 크게 부진함을 알 수 있다. 둘째, 기관 및 외국인투자자는 예고일 부터 지정일 사이에 재무투명성이 낮은 기업에서는 강한 매도행태를 보이나, 재무투명성이 높은 기업에서는 뚜렷한 매도행태가 나타나지 않고 있다. 이러한 기관 및 외국인투자자의 거래행태는 불성실공시법인으로 지정된 이후 투명성이 낮은 기업의 중장기 주가성과가 훨씬 더 부진했음을 감안할 때 정보우위를 바탕으로 손실을 회피하는 투자전략을 취한 반면에 개인투자자에게 손실이 전가되었음을 보여준다. 셋째, 횡단면 회귀분석을 통해 재무투명성이 낮고 기관 및 외국인투자자의 순매도가 클수록 중장기 주가성과가 부진한 것으로 나타나고, 두 변수 간에 교차효과도 존재하여 재무투명성이 낮으면서 기관및 외국인투자자의 순매도가 큰 경우에 중장기 주가성과가 더욱 부진한 것을 알 수 있다. 끝으로, 생존율 분석에서도 재무투명성이 낮고 기관 및 외국인투자자의 순매도가 클수록 기업의 생존율이 낮아지고 있고, 두 변수 간에 교차효과도 존재하고 있음을 알 수 있다. 결론적으로 불성실공시의 경우에도 실질적인 투자자 보호를 위해서는 기업의 재무적 투명성이 중요하다는 것을 알 수 있다. For the unfaithful disclosure firms during the period from August, 2001 to December, 2011, this paper examines if there exists any difference in long-term stock performance and survival rate depending on financial transparency and trading behavior by investor type. The results are summarized as follows. First, we find that as the financial transparency is lower, the negative announcement effect of unfaithful disclosure is larger and the long-term stock performance is much lower. Second, domestic institutional and foreign investors show strong sell-patterns for the firms of which financial transparency is low during the period from forewarning day to confirmation day of unfaithful disclosure, whereas they do not show sell-pattern for the firms of high financial transparency. This result suggests that domestic institutional and foreign investors avoid the loss through their information advantage, causing significant loss to individual investors. Third, through cross-section regression analysis, we confirm that as the financial transparency is lower and the net-sell of domestic institutional and foreign investors increases, long-term stock performance is lower. Finally, we find that the firm’s survival rate becomes lower when the net-sell of domestic institutional and foreign investors increases and the financial transparency is getting lower. We conclude that the firm’s financial transparency is important for the investor protection even in case of unfaithful disclosure.