ARIMA 모형을 이용한 경마 매출액 예측

윤호중 ( Ho Jung Yoon ),안재경 ( Jae Kyoung Ahn ) 한국스포츠산업경영학회 2013 한국스포츠산업경영학회지 Vol.18 No.5

경마는 관람스포츠로 이용객들은 기수와 말이 하는 경기에 돈을 걸고 참여하며 이용객들의 베팅금액은 경마의 주된 매출 요인이자 일차적인 수입원이 된다. 매출액의 증감은 해당 스포츠의 활성화 정도를 파악할 수 있는 중요한 바로미터로 그 규모를 파악하는 것은 해당 스포츠의 발전 방향 설정에 있어 매우 중요하다고 할 수 있다. 2012년 우리나라 주요 관람 스포츠의 이용객 규모 중 경마 이용객수가 1,614만명으로 가장 많은 것으로 나타났으며 매출액 규모도 78,554억원으로 가장 크다. 그러나 한국에서의 경마는 사행산업으로 분류되어 정부의 규제와 정책에 많은 영향을 받고 있다. 본 논문은 1981년~2012년의 한국 경마 매출액 자료를 토대로 2013년 ~ 2016년까지의 경마 매출액을 시계열 분석모형인 ARIMA 모형을 이용하여 추정하였다. 예측 결과 경마 매출액은 2012년 78,554억원을 정점으로 소폭 감소하여 2016년에는 77,002억원에 이를 것으로 보인다. 2012년을 정점으로 성장을 하고 있지 못하다는 예측 결과는 경마 산업이 새로운 전환점을 맞이했다는 것을 의미한다. 따라서 경마 산업이 지속적인 성장을 하기 위해서는 경마에 대한 인식 전환, 다양한 엔터테인먼트 기능 가미 등을 통하여 건전한 레저스포츠, 관람스포츠로 자리 잡을 수 있는 발전방안 모색이 필요하다. The horse racing is a kind of spectator sports, where the spectators participate in the horse racing by betting their money. Those money is the primary source of income of the horse racing. Revenue of the horse racing is important barometer to figure out the degree of activation of the corresponding sports. The horse racing spectators scale recorded the largest number of spectators in Korea. It``s revenue was 78,554 billion during 2012, which was also the largest revenue of spectators sports in Korea. However, horse racing is classified as a gambling industry which should be seriously affected by government regulations and policies. In this paper, we predicted the horse racing revenue from 2013 to 2016 using an ARIMA model. We used time series data on Korea horse racing revenue during 1981 and 2012. Forecasting results show that the revenue of horse racing will be ￦7,816 billion in 2013 and ￦7,700 billion in 2016. The trend of horse racing in Korea turns out to be stagnant. It implies that the horse racing industry in Korea has reached a turning point. For continuous growth of horse racing industry in Korea, there needs having more concrete development plans like the conversion of understanding about horse racing, the augmentation of entertainment features to horse racing, and so on.

주요 경제지표를 이용한 경마산업의 성장과 발전에 대한 논의 - 한국과 일본의 경마시장을 중심으로 -

윤호중 ( Yoon Ho-jung ),김예기 ( Kim Yae-gi ),김진욱 ( Kim Gene-uhc ) 한국스포츠산업경영학회 2017 한국스포츠산업경영학회지 Vol.22 No.4

본 논문은 1981년~2015년에 걸쳐 한국과 일본의 경마산업 실태를 비교하고, 경마산업의 이용객 수와 매출액이 1인당 GNI, 경제활동인구, 가계소비지출, 실업율, 근로시간, 고용율 등의 경제 지표들과의 연관 관계를 분석하였다. 분석 기간 동안 한국과 일본의 장내 경마 이용객은 감소 추세를 나타내고 있다. 특히, 한국 경마 이용객은 본장보다는 장외 이용객이 점차 감소 추세를 나타낸다. 1981년~2015년에 걸쳐 경마 시장 매출액은 한국이 263.9배나 증가한 반면 일본은 2.1배 증가한 것으로 나타났으며 장외 매출 비중은 2015년 한국은 68.6%인데 비해 일본은 95.4%에 달하고 있다. 한국의 경마 이용객은 1인당 GNI, 경제활동인구, 가계소비지출, 근로시간, 고용율과 유의미하다는 결과를 보여준다. 이는 경제가 지속적으로 성장함에 따라 개인 소득이 향상 되고 개인적인 여유 시간이 증가하였을 때 이용객이 증가함을 의미한다고 할 수 있다. 한편 경제활동인구와 유의미하다는 점은 향후 고령화 시대로 접어들면서 경마 이용객 수가 줄어들 수 있음을 의미하기도 한다. 일본의 경마 이용객은 경제활동인구와 유의미하다는 결과를 보여준다. 이는 초고령화 사회로 접어든 일본에서는 경마에 참가할 참여자들이 경제활동인구에 영향을 많이 받음을 보여준다. 한국과 일본의 경마 매출액은 동일하게 1인당 GNI, 경제활동인구, 가계소비지출, 근로시간, 고용율과 유의미하다는 결과를 보여준다. 한국 경마 매출액은 1인당 GNI, 경제활동인구, 가계소비지출, 고용율과는 강한 양의 상관관계를 근로시간과는 강한 음의 상관관계를 나타낸다. 한국의 경마매출액은 경제가 발전에 따라 매출액이 상대적으로 증가할 수 있음을 나타낸다. 반면 일본은 한국과 상관관계가 동일하지만 상관도는 경제활동인구를 제외하면 약한 상관관계를 보이고 있다. 경제활동인구와 강한 상관관계를 가지는 것은 일본인들의 경마 참여에 경제적인 요인이 필수가 아님을 의미한다. 이런 결과는 일본에서 경마가 대중적인 레저·스포츠로서 자리를 잡았기 때문인 것으로 보인다. In this paper, we compare horse racing industry between Korea and Japan from 1981 to 2015, and analyze the relationships of horse racing spectators and horse racing sales each of them with important economic indicators such as GNI per capita, economic activity population, household consumption expenditure and unemployment rate. In the recent years of the analysis period, the number of horse racing spectators in Korea and Japan has shown a declining trend. In particular, off-site Korean horse racing spectators decreased more than those in racetracks. During the analysis period, the sales of horse racing market increased by 263.9 times in Korea while it increased by 2.1 times in Japan. In 2015, the share of off-site sales revenue to total revenue in Korea was 68.6%, whereas it was 95.4% in Japan. The Korean horse racing spectators are significantly affected by changes in the per capita GNI, the economically active population, household consumption expenditure, working hours and employment rate. These results implyied that as the economy continues to grow, the number of spectators increases as personal income increases and personal leisure time increases. On the other hand, the result regarding the relationship between the economically active population and the number of horse racing spectators, we can conclude that there is a reverse relationship between the number of spectators and the aging of those spectators. Japanese horse racing spectators also had a significant relationship with the economically active population. These results show that horse racing spectators in Japan, which has entered an aging society, were affected by the economically active population. Horse racing sales of both Korea and Japan showed a considerable relationship with GNI per capita, the economically active population, household consumption expenditure, working hours and employment rate. The Korean horse racing sales particularly showed a strong positive correlation with the economic indicators, indicating that Korea`s horse racing sales could increase as the economy develops. Japan shares the same direction of correlation with Korea, but the correlation is weak with all the indicators except for the one with economically active population. Having a strong correlation only with the economically active population and weak correlations with the other economic factors, we can conclude that economic indicators are not essential for Japanese participation in horse races. This seems to be due to the fact that horse racing has become a popular leisure sport in Japan.

경마장 이용객의 마권 관련 제도 개선방안에 관한 연구

윤호중 ( Ho Jung Yoon ),안재경 ( Jae Kyoung Ahn ) 한국스포츠산업경영학회 2014 한국스포츠산업경영학회지 Vol.19 No.1

경마 매출액은 입장객들이 경마 경주에 참여시 구매하는 마권 매출액에 의존하며 마권 매출액은 마권제도와 밀접한 관계를 가지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 마권 매출액과 가장 관련이 있는 마권 관련 제도에 있어 경마장 이용객이 바라는 제도개선 및 도입이 필요한 부분에 대한 우선순위를 AHP방법론을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과 경마장 이용객들은 환급금 인상을 위한 제도 개선이 우선 필요하며, 구매금액 및 보상 조정, 구매 및 환급 방식 다양화, 게임방식 확대 순으로 중요하다고 평가하였다. 평가 결과 11개의 세부평가 항목 중에서 마권 제세 인하가 0.257로 가장 중요시되는 것으로 나타났으며, 배당금 세율 인하가 그 다음으로 중요한 0.205로 나타났고, 수득금 인하, 마일리지 확대 및 위로금 도입, 온라인 구매 방식 도입 등의 순서로 평가되었다. 즉, 평가 결과 경마 이용객들은 환급금과 관련한 제도가 가장 먼저 개선되기를 희망하는 것으로 나타났다. 마권구매 관련 제도와 관련해서는 조세 문제, 사행산업 문제 등 여러 가지 사회 문제와 관련이 있어 경마 이용객이 원하는 방향으로 개선이 이루어지기는 쉽지 않다. 하지만 우리나라 경마산업의 전환점을 맞이한 현 시점에서 경마산업의 건전한 발전을 위한 제도 개선 논의를 시작할 필요가 있다. Horse racing sales revenue depends on betting ticket sales volume, which represents the sum of Spectator``s ticket sales when they participate in the horse racing games. Horse racing sales revenue becomes inextricably bound up with betting ticket system. In this paper, we performed spectator’s priority analyses on the improvement of betting ticket system by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology. We conducted interview survey for spectators in Gwacheon racetrack on september 28, 2013. The results showed that the spectators put first priority on the raise of return money from games, adjustment for the purchase price and the compensation was evaluated second, diversification of the purchasing and reimbursement methods was ranked third, and expansion of gaming was the last priority. Among the eleven decision factors being considered, ticket tax reduction weighed first as 0.257, dividend tax reduction was next as 0.205, which were followed by commission charge, bonus mileage and more compensation for lost games, introduction of online purchasing system. Consequently, spectators most strongly hope to improve the system regarding the return. It is not easy to reform the ticketing system in view of the spectators only since there must be more complicated problems with tax issues, gambling problems, social problems etc. However it seems to be the right time to start discussing how to make the horse racing industry in Korea healthy when it has reached a turning point.

한국 경마산업의 발전과 경제변수간의 관계에 대한 분석

윤호중(Yoon, Ho-Jung),정지명(Jung, Ji-Myung),김예기(Kim, Yae-Gi) 한국체육과학회 2012 한국체육과학회지 Vol.21 No.6

In this paper, we analyzed the structure of horse racing market from 1981 to 2011 using data of visitors and revenues of horse racing in Korea. During the period, horse racing has seen increases in visitors and revenues. In particular, the number of visitors of branch gradually in creased compared to that of main. Revenue of horse racing market of Korea in 2011 increased by 266 times compared to that of 1981. In 2011, the revenue of local racetrack accounts for 71.6% of the total revenue. The result shows that the horse racing demand of Korea has correlation with per capita GNI, economically active population, entertainment & culture expenditures, number of unemployed persons and working time. As the economy grows continuously, personal income and personal leisure time have increased, contributing to demand for horse racing. As Korea becomes an “aging society” and the number of economically active population decreases, horse racing market of Korea need to prepare for the change. In order to develop horse racing industry in Korea, various measures such as improving the image of horse racing should be taken.

HVDC Grid에서 사용되는 Silicone composite의 연면 절연파괴와 표면 도전율에 대한 특성 연구

윤호중(Ho-Jung Yoon),서인진(In-Jin Seo),문성덕(Sung-Duk Moon),구자윤(Ja-Yoon Koo) 대한전기학회 2013 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2013 No.7

웨이블렛 변환(CWT)을 이용한 GITr에서의 절연결함 위치 추정에 관한 연구

윤호중(Ho-Jung Yoon),서인진(In-Jin Seo),최원(Won Choi),이영조(Young-jo Lee),문성덕(Soung-Duk Moon),구자윤(Ja-Yoon Koo) 대한전기학회 2013 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2013 No.4

HVDC 320kV XLPE 케이블용 가스중종단접속함 개발

정의환(Eui-Hwan Jung),이웅엽(Woong-Yup Lee),윤호중(Ho-Jung Yun),김윤형(Yoon-Hyoung Kim),손시호(Si-Ho Son),김정년(Jung-Nyun Kim) 대한전기학회 2023 대한전기학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2023 No.7

우리나라 스포츠산업의 시장규모와 구조 변화

정지명(Jung, Ji-Myung),김예기(Kim, Yea-Gi),윤호중(Yoon, Ho-Jung),이건희(Lee, Gun-Hee) 한국체육과학회 2011 한국체육과학회지 Vol.20 No.6

Although there have been many studies examining various industries in Korea, the term of sports industry was adopted quite recently. In particular, sports industry in Korea is perceived as a hybrid industry or a latecomer industry. Accordingly, statistical data of sports industry are not continuously constructed and even there are such data, they are often mixed with that of other industries. This paper, by using input-output tables from the years of 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008, deals with the structural changes of sport industry in Korea and then examines the induced effect of the industry. According to the input-output tables, sports industry is categorized as sports products industry, sports equipments industry, sports facility and services industry. This paper studies production-inducing coefficient, value-adding coefficient, forward linkage effect and backward linkage effect of sports industry. However, as the input-output tables assumes a single production, the size of sports industry is underestimated. In addition, induced effect factors cannot be categorized as a combined large group, a combined medium group, and a combined small group in the input-output table. Therefore, this paper has the limit that only 403 column of the input-output table is used in order to analyze induced effect factors of sports industry.

사방사업 인지도 확산을 위한 정보전달 매체 선정 연구

유윤진 ( Ryu Yoon-jin ),조동길 ( Cho Dong-gil ),윤호중 ( Youn Ho-jung ),이창우 ( Lee Chang-woo ),이지현 ( Lee Ji-hyun ) 한국환경복원기술학회(구 한국환경복원녹화기술학회) 2018 한국환경복원기술학회지 Vol.21 No.2

As a result of climate change, mountain sediment disasters due to localized heavy rain and mountain development are occuring more frequently, thus, increasing social attention to and demand for soil erosion control projects. However, since 2011 Seoul Wumyeon Mountain landslide, the public is expressing increasing anxiety as well as negative perception regarding defective project results. Therefore, this study investigated promotional terms and information media related to soil erosion control projects according to the consumer in order to increase awareness of soil erosion control projects. In this study, the information consumers were divided into experts and the general public and conducted a survey related to promotional terms and media for communicating relevant information. In the result, the experts chose landslide prevention and recovery projects (41.8%) as an appropriate promotional term for soil erosion control projects. The general public, however, chose mountain sediment disaster prevention projects (32.5%) as the appropriate promotional term. However, the analysis showed that it would be necessary to develop an promotional term that can encompass the concept of ‘disaster prevention’ including forest and soil disaster as the word ‘landslide’ can suggest soil erosion control is limited to landslides only. In the survey regarding the media for communicating information related to soil erosion control projects according to the consumer type, the experts preferred radio and TV as media to communicate the relevant information, while, among the general public, the youths preferred social media such as Facebook and Twitter (22.22%) and adults radio and TV (34.07%), As for the most effective way to promote soil erosion control projects, the experts chose traditional promotinal media such as newspaper, radio, and TV (0.172) whereas the adults and youths preferred the internet and Facebook (0.089). It appears that using the preferred media for communicating information related to soil erosion control projects according to the consumer type will be effective way to promote soil erosion control projects.

Nd-YAP laser 를 적용한 치주-근관 복합병소의 치료에 대한 고찰

강혜경(He-Kyong Kang),윤호중(Ho-Jung Yoon) 대한치과의사협회 2009 대한치과의사협회지 Vol.47 No.8

Purpose : The aim of this study was to show the clinical results of combination of Nd-YAP (1340nm) laser therapy with conventional endodontic and periodontal treatment. Materials and Methods : Four patients with chronic advanced periodontitis and endodontic infection were treated with conventional treatment and Nd-YAP laser therapy. Occlusal adjustment and splinting were done for stabilization of the teeth with severe horizontal and vertical mobility. The protocol for periodontal treatment was followed as scaling and root planing, pocket irrigation with 3% H2O2, and exposure of Nd-YAP laser using 320㎛ optical fiber with 160mJ/pluse, 30Hz. The other protocol for endodontic treatment was followed as access opening, canal preparation by hand and rotary instrument, canal filling, and exposure of Nd- YAP laser using 200㎛ optical fiber with 200mJ/pluse, 10Hz and 180mJ/pluse, 5Hz which were used respectively for disinfection and canal filling. The assessments of probing depth, mobility, and radiography were made prior to and after treatment. Result: All of these four clinical cases showed good healing of periodontium, which presented decrease of mobility and pocket depth, and increase of bone regeneration and bone density on the radiography. Conclusion : The bactericidal effect of Nd-YAP laser would provide benefits for improving clinical results that are obtained from conventional therapy.