방송작가 윤영웅

윤영웅 충북연구원 2009 앞,뒤 바라보다 Vol.- No.2

우리의 수출에 대한 수입규제 장벽과 대책

윤영웅 安東大學 1984 安東大學 論文集 Vol.6 No.1

Recently, global recession has reduced the movement of goods among the industrialized nations, settling off a near panic as trading partners try to save jobs at home by raising barriers to products made abroad. Thus world trade has become such a touchy political subject that an unwilling administration hears fresh calls for barriers against imports. Liberal economists like Lester Thurow and Robert Reich are giving the new mood an intellectual respectability, arguing that there is no such thing as truly "Free" trade. Now, clearly the international Trading system is on the brink of crisis. Nevertheless such a econemic summit as the Williamsburg is disscussing this subject and many a country are insisting international economic cooperation, protectionism is on the rise and the industrialized nations are adopting strict import barriers on products made abroad (for example; import quotas and so on). Furthermore, such a measure will be increased and strengthened in the future. We are hurting as a result of rising trend of protectionism. Therefore, we have to set up a series of credible counter-measures and cope with the impacts on these barriers. After analyzing the facts and problems of barriers against our export goods, this study is to present some recommendations for a viable solution. Especially, this paper focuses on the implications of nontariff measures adopted by the industrialized nations as the most important commercial policies in the intrnational trade. For these purpose, this study is approached in side of impacts, characteristics -and effects on barries against imports.

換率의 均衡과 安定에 관한 小考

윤영웅 安東大學 1982 安東大學 論文集 Vol.4 No.1

This study intend to analyze the factors affected on the foreign exchange rate, the equilibrium in the spot forward market, and the stability condition at the equilibrium point. A foreign exchange transaction is a trade of one national money for another at a negotiated exchange rate. The spot exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand for foreign exchange. And the spot exchange rate is affected by the nature of the foreign exchange system under which the country operates. The simplest system is the flexible exchange standard without intervention by governments or central bankers. And such a demand and supply for foreign exchange are determined by domestic and foreign prices of goods and services, domestic and foreign awareness of trading opportunities, international capital movements, the anticipations of speculators as to the future course of exchange rates, and so forth. The market clears itself through the price mechanism. Under the fixed exchange standard, officials try to keep the exchange rate essentially fixed if the rate they choose departs from the current equilibrium rate. Their usual procedure under such a system is to declare a band of exchange rates within which the rate is allowed to vary. If the exchange rate hits the top or bottom of the band, the officials must intervene. And the forward exchange rate is determined by the interaction of supply and demand in the same manner in which the spot rate is deterned. The forward market offers an alternative route for hedgers and speculators, which route one chooses depends on the difference between the forward and the spot rates of exchange, as well as on interest rates in the two countries` lending markets. The higher a nation`s interest rate is relative to that of the rest of the world, the more hedgers and speculators will be tempted to buy that country's currency in the spot market, lend in that country, and sell the country`s currency forward. And the stability condition is not fulfilled 'and the equilibrium point is unstable only if the supply curve is negatively sloping and flatter than the demand curve at the equilibrium point. Also, only if the supply elasticity is negative and numerically larger than the demand elasticity does an unstable equilibrium result. The backward bending of the supply curve is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for instability.

Marshall과 Hicks의 소비자 잉여의 개념에 관한 연구

윤영웅 安東大學 1986 安東大學 論文集 Vol.8 No.1

소비자잉여 혹은 "Utilite Relative"개념은 처음 1844년 프랑스의 공학자 Jules Dupuit에 의해 사용되었다. 그는 근본적으로 보조금을 줄만한 다리건설의 원가부분을 발견하려는 데에 관심을 두었다. Dupuit는 분명히 그가 실제로 지불하는 것에 대해, 소비자가 기꺼이 지불하려고 하고 만족 혹은 잉여를 얻는다는 사심을 분명히 알고 있었다. 그의 업적은 중요한 것임에도 불구하고 관심을 끌지 못했으며, 1890년 Marshall이 그의 논저 "Principles of Economics"에서 본 개념을 사용한 이래로, 경제이론과 정책에서 소비자잉여의 개념은 계속적인 논쟁의 원천이 되어왔다. 따라서, 본고에서는 경제이론과 정책에서 중요한 부분을 차지하고 있는 Marshall과 Hicks의 소비자잉여의 개념을 비교, 분석하는데 있다. 1장에서 전체적인 방향을 살펴보고, 2장에서 Marshall의 소비자잉여의 내용을 살펴보고, 3장에서 Marshall의 소비자잉여의 한계를 살펴보고, 4장에서 Hicks의 소비자잉여의 내용과 문제점을 살펴보고, 5장에서 Marshall과 Hicks의 소비자잉여를 비교 분석하고, 6장에서 두 이론사이의 제문제점을 살펴본다. Contents Ⅰ. Introduction Ⅱ. The Marshallian consumer surplus Ⅲ. The limitations of the Marshallian consumer surplus A. The problem of dollar-util conversion B. The problem of path dependency Ⅳ. The Hicksian measure Ⅴ. The Marshallian measure vs the Hicksian measures Ⅵ. Conclusion References 요약

기포탑내에서의 분뇨의 소화도에 대한 연구

윤영웅,김상렬,한승완 한국화학공학회 1993 Korean Chemical Engineering Research(HWAHAK KONGHA Vol.31 No.4

분뇨처리장에서 채취한 분뇨를 기포탑에 넣고 시료의 희석배율, 공기의 폭기속도, 소화시간 및 분산판의 구멍 면적비에 따라 소화도를 측정하였다. 분뇨 용액의 소화도는 시료의 희석배율과 공기의 폭기속도가 증가할수록 증가하였으며 분산판의 구멍 면적비가 작을수록 크게 나타났다. 시료의 표면장력의 변화에 따른 소화도 측정법은 BOD에 의한 소화도 측정법에 비하여 정확도가 크게 나타났다. 이들 측정방법을 통하여 얻은 실험 결과를 이용하여 소화도에 대한 추산식을 제안하였다. The digestion degrees of the night soil which was taken from a night soil processing plant have been measured in a bubble column according to dilution ratios, aeration velocities, digestion time, and hole area ratios of distribution plate. Digestion degrees increased with increasing dilution ratios and aeration velocities, and they increased with decreasing hole area ratios of distribution plate. The surface tension measurement method for digestion degree gave high accuracy than BOD measurement method. We suggested the estimated digestion degree equations according to various experiment conditions.

환율예측과 한국기업의 대처방안

윤영웅 安東大學 社會科學硏究所 1990 社會 科學 論叢 Vol.2 No.1

Are changes in exchange rates predictable? Because changes in exchange rates are one of the major causes of financial uncertainty for a multinational firm, the answer to this question is critical to understanding of what multinational financial managers can or should do about their exposure to foreign exchange rate changes. The transition of the world`s system of exchange rates to a state of floationg among major currencies since 1973 has given new urgency to old questions about the appropriate. corporate financial policy for firms with international operations. The most fundamental change affects currency forecating, and will ultimately force a thorough rethinking of hedging concepts and international funding in particular, and corporate exchange rate strategy in general. In a world of cleanly floating currencies, exchange rates are determined by the interaction of currency supplies and demands. These supply and demand schedules, in turn, are influenced by relative rates of inflation, real interest rate differentials, and relative rates of economic growth. A managed float-which characterizes most of the important currencies today-shares many of the attributes of a clean float. In particular, economic factors are going to be of primary importance in exchange rate determination. A managed float also shares a basic attribute with a fixed-rate system-government intervention. But, Whereas they are clear in a fixed-rate system, government objectives are less obvious in the present managed float, Some countries do not intervene at all. Others intervene on both sides of the market, While still others have attempted to impede or hasten exchange rate changes. Under a fixed rate system government intervention is sometimes predictable because the rules of the game are clearly understood by all participants. However, under a managed floating system, sometimes called a "dirty float," the rules for government interference are not known to the private sector participants, and it is hard to discover which economic and political variables will ultimately move a government to change its exchange rate. The present international monetary system is characterized by a mix of freely floating, managed floating, and fixed exchange rates. Therefore no single general theory is available that is suitable for forecasting exchange rate changes under all conditions. Most analysts in the area of currency prediction have attempted to find some key indicators of when a currency is in trouble. Some of these barometers are balance-of-payments deficits or surpluses, levels of gold and hard currency reserves, external borrowings, and comparative rates of inflation. However, many of these measures are ad hoc with little theory or empirical testing behind them. Moreover, this approach may have been appropriate in a period of essentially fixed exchange rates with massive government intervention, but it is of little use in a floating exchange rate world. Many analysts examined various aspects of exchange rate determination under different market mechanisms, including the parity relations that can be expected to hold among exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates. The major issue as far as business is concerned, however, is whether currency forecasting is possible and, if so, how to do it Long required by importers and exporters, bankers and foreign exchange traders, currency predictions are now an integral part of decision making in the multinational corporation in areas as diverse as issuing long-term debt, sourcing supplies, and determining an international product pricing strategy. This greater demand for currency forecasts appears to have generated its own supply. A variety of econometric forecasting models is now available from banks and independent economic consulting firms. And more firms are availing themselves of these services, despite their expense.

非關稅政策手段의 諸效果에 관한 小考

윤영웅 安東大學 1983 安東大學 論文集 Vol.5 No.1

The aim of this study is to search our fundamental counter-measures of N.T.Bs. appeared nowsday as the most important commercial policies in the international trade. And this study is approached in side of contents and impacts of N.T.Bs. Now, summing up the contents of this study on the whole. 1. Causes on the appearence of N.T.Bs. N.T.Bs. originated in settling international balance of payments resulted in their international trade. It was caused, in part, by sucess on substential reduction of tariff by G. A.T. T. and Kennedy Round. Also measures of protectionism are changed from tariff to N.T.Bs. nowsday when their other economic conditions is in worse conditions. 2. Prospects of N.T.Bs. Strengthening phenomena of N.T.Bs. will contine in future because of incresing tendencies in unemployment, disproportion of trade blance, pursuing of low growth policy of the developed country, dullness of industry reorganization, problems of M. F. A. and M.T. N. and so on. This will not disappear in short time. Furthermore, it is a tendency to be strengthened. 3. Typical Commercial Policies with dividing these policies into two sector. 1) General Policies, i) For effects on quantitative restrictions of N.T.Bs., we can overcome this hard situation with negotiations of organized power, with systematic policies in international organization, and with counter-measures being able to be obtained by individual negotiation, ii) For effects on price impacts of N.T.Bs., we are able to deal successfully with this situation by the reduction of production cost being able to substitute price impacts of N.T.Bs. But an importing country always can use counter-measures in order to cope with the exchage of export terms and conditions in an exporting country, therefore in this case antidumping protection duty and the price policy of production cost must be normal and reasonable. 2) Case-Policy on N.T.Bs. i) In case of Quota, we have to prevent the inproper abuse of Great Injury`s conception and procedure in the article 19 of G.A.T.T. ii) In case of Border Adjustments for internal Taxes and State Trade, this is carried into effect with the direct purpose related with commercial policies. But an exporting country can`t have any national counter-measures because it depends on the option of an importing country. Generally it has to be solved through the national negotiations, iii) In case of Anti- Dumping Code and Compensation Duties, Great injury and proper price resulted from the dumping is stated clearly in the article G of G.A.T.T. But this is not proper in real society. So, it is needed to be changed. And there is not the compensation duties code in G.A.T.T.. As making these article, the abuse must can be prevented.

환율의 불확실성과 수출과의 관계

윤영웅 국제지역학회 1997 국제지역연구 Vol.1 No.1

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade. Nowsdays, exchange rate volatility increases the risk and uncertainty in international trades, and thus decreases international trade. If exporters avoid the risk, they will get an added cost to avoid the uncertainty associated with the exchange rate volatility. First I reviewed the problems about exchange rate uncertainty and its relationship to observed variability of exchange rates. Then I outlined the various direct and indirect ways the uncertainty might affect trade. And three proxies for meansuring exchange rate uncertainty were used in this paper. Finally, I examined the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on our exports, The result showed that the exchange rate uncertainty has negative effects on international trade. According to the result of empirical estimation, one important policy implication of this study is that it is desirable to reduce exchange rate uncertainty or variability to increse international trade. From the expanded point of view, the exchange rate uncertainty can be declined by inducing the changes in macroeconomic policies by the government, by planing exchange market strategies by exporters. While some may negrect the exchange rate uncertainty on some other reasons, we still need to consider that the possible adverse effect of exchange rate uncertainty on our trade is to consist of a part of the foreign exchange problems.

환율예측의 한계성에 관한 연구

윤영웅 安東大學 1991 安東大學 論文集 Vol.13 No.1

How useful are foreign exchange rate forecasting models in a floating world? Forecasting is difficult, especially if it`s about the future. Are changes in exchange rates predictable? Because changes in exchange rates are one of the major causes of financial uncertainty for a multinational firm, the answer to this question is critical to an understanding of what multinational financial managers can or should do about their exposure to foreign exchange rate changes. The transition of the world`s system of exchange rates to a state of floating among major currencies since 973 has given new urgency to old questions about the appropriate corporate financial policy for firms with international operations. The most fundamental change affects currency forecasting, and will ultimately force a thorough rethinking of hedging concepts and international funding in particular, and corporate exchange rate strategy in general. In a world of cleanly floating currencies, exchange rates are determined by the interaction of currency supplies and demands. These supply and demand schedules, in turn, are influenced by relative rates for inflation, real interest rate differentials, and relative rates of economic growth. A managed float-which characterizes most of the important currencies today-shares many of the attributes of a clean float. In particular, economic factors are going to be of primary importance in exchange rate determination. A managed float also shares a basic attribute with a fixed rate system-government intervention. But, whereas they are clear in a fixed-rate system, government objectives are less obvious in the present managed float. Some countries do not intervene at all, others intervene on both sides of the market, While still others have attempted to impede or hasten exchange rate changes. Under a fixed rate system government intervention is sometimes predictable because the rules of the game are clearly understood by all participants. However, under a managed floating system, sometimes called a "dirty float", the rules for government interference are not known to the private sector participants, and it is hard to discover which economic and political variables will ultimately move a government to change its exchange rate. The present international monetary system is characterized by a mix of freely floating, managed floating, and fixed exchange rates. Therefore no single general theory is available that is suitable for forecasting exchange rate changes under all conditions. Most analysts in the area of currency prediction have attempted to find some key indicators of when a currency is in trouble. Some of these barometers are balance-of- payments deficits or surpluses, levels of gold and hard currency reserves, external borrowings, and comparative rates of inflation. However, many of these measures are ad hoc with little theory or empirical testing behind them. Moreover, this approach may have been appropriate in a period of essentially fixed exchange rates with massive government intervention, but it is of little use in a floating exchange rate world. Many analysts examined various aspects of exchange rate determination under different market mechanisms, including the parity relations that can be expected to hold among exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation rates. The major issue as far as business is concerned, however, is whether currency forecasting is possible and, if so, how to do it. Long required by importers and exporters, bankers and foreign exchange traders, currency predictions are now an integral part of decision making in the multinational corporation (MNC) in areas as diverse as issuing long-term debt, sourcing supplies, and determining an international product pricing strategy. This greater demand for currency forecasts appears to have generated its own supply. A variety of econometric forecasting models is now available from banks and independent economic consulting frms. And more firms are availing themselves of these services, despite their expense. And there are two main approaches to currency prediction; the market-based approach and the model-based approach. Market-based forecasts of exchange rate changes can be derived most simply from current spot and forward rates. Although forward rates provide simple and easy to use currency forecasts, their forecasting horizon is limited to about one year because of the general absence of longer-term forward contracts. It is usually necessary, therefore, to use interest rate differentials for exchange rate predictions beyond one year. The two principal model-based approaches to currency prediction are known as technical analysis and fundamental analysis. The latter approach relies heavily on econometric modeling techniques. Each approach has its advocates and detractors. And, currency forecasting can lead to consistent profits only if the forecaster meets at least one of the following four criteria: The forecaster (l) has exclusive use of a superior forecasting model; (2) has consistent access to information before the other investors; (3) exploits small, temporary deviations from equilibrium; (4) can predict the nature of government intervention in the foreign exchange market. In addition to these four criteria, a fifth possible criterion is luck. The topics I have been discussing in this article can be summarized in three basic statements. First, an analysis will be made about the two principal approaches to currency prediction. Second, what kind of theory is available for forecasting exchange rate changes? Third, what are the limitations in producing a consistent record of success in dealing with fluctuations in exchange values?.

現物換去來와 先物換去來에 관한 小考

윤영웅 安東大學 1985 安東大學 論文集 Vol.7 No.1

This report tends to analyze rather practical side than theoretical side for the spot exchage transaction forward exchange transaction and the problems of foreign exchange transactions Now main contents in this report are as follows. Trading in the foreign exchange markets includes not only currencies for immediate delivery (spot exchange) but also forward exchange, currencies to be delivered on a specified date. A market in forward exchange exists prinicpally because persons committing themselves to future transactions involving foreign currencies want to know now what these commitments will be worth at maturity in their home currencies. Thus, a United States importer of British goods may be obliged to pay the shipper in sterling ninety days hence. If the price of sterling falls in the interim, say because the pound is devalved, his profits from the importing transaction are increased. But if the price of sterling rises, his profits are reduced or wiped out. He may wish to avoid taking his chances on either of these outcomes. A possible solution for him of course, would be to purchase spot sterling now and hold it for ninety days. That would eliminate the exchange risk, but it would tie up his capital and perhaps cost him interest. A better solution, potentially, is to hedge his future payment by a forward purchase of sterling. That is, he enters a contract to pay a specified number of dollars ninety days hence in exchange for the sterling he will need. And there is other transaction in the forward market. That is arbitrage, speculation etc. Arbitrage is a general term in economics for buying something where it is cheap and selling where it is dear. If the price of swiss francs in New York falls below that in London by more than the (small) cost of transaction, it pays to buy in New York and sell in London: This is foreign exchange arbitrage. It tends to continue until the difference disappears, and speculation is the transaction with a view to profiting from the discrepancy between the current forward rate and the probable future spot rate that the operator expects to prevail.