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Taylor 급수를 이용한 Alloy 617 의 장시간 크리프 수명 예측 모델의 적용성
윤송남(Song-Nan Yin),김우곤(Woo-Gon Kim),박재영(Jea-Yeong Park),김용완(Yong-Wan Kim) 대한기계학회 2009 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2009 No.11
Creep life prediction has been commonly used by a time-temperature parameter (TTP) which is correlated to a rupture time and temperature, such as Larson-Miller (LM), Orr-Sherby-Dorn (OSD), Manson-Haferd (MH) and Manson-Succop (MS) parameters. A Taylor series model(T-SM) based on Arrhenius, McVetty and Monkman-Grant equations was newly proposed through a mathematical procedure and in order to reduce the fitting errors the McVetty’s equation was transformed by taking the first three-terms of Taylor series equation. The model parameters were properly determined by means of a technique of maximum likelihood estimation of statistical method, and this model was applied to the creep data of Alloy 617. The T-SM results revealed better agreement than the Eno’s model and the LM parameter one. Especially, it was identified that the T-SM showed a good estimation in predicting the long-term creep life of Alloy 617.
Alloy 617 의 장시간 크리프 수명 예측을 위한 다중회귀 선형 모델의 제안 및 평가
윤송남(Song-Nan Yin),김우곤(Woo-Gon Kim),정익희(Ik-Hee Jung),김용완(Yong-Wan Kim) 대한기계학회 2009 大韓機械學會論文集A Vol.33 No.4
Creep life prediction has been commonly used by a time-temperature parameter (TTP) which is correlated to an applied stress and temperature, such as Larson-Miller (LM), Orr-Sherby-Dorn (OSD), Manson-Haferd (MH) and Manson-Succop (MS) parameters. A stress-temperature linear model (STLM) based on Arrhenius, Dorn and Monkman-Grant equations was newly proposed through a mathematical procedure. For this model, the logarithm time to rupture was linearly dependent on both an applied stress and temperature. The model parameters were properly determined by using a technique of maximum likelihood estimation of a statistical method, and this model was applied to the creep data of Alloy 617. From the results, it is found that the STLM results showed better agreement than the Eno’s model and the LM parameter ones. Especially, the STLM revealed a good estimation in predicting the long-term creep life of Alloy 617.
시간-온도 파라미터법과 최소구속법에 의한 크리프 수명예측과 오차 분석
윤송남(Song-Nan Yin),김우곤(Woo-Gon Kim),류우석(Woo-Seog Ryu),이원(Won Yi) 대한기계학회 2006 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2006 No.3
To predict long-term creep lifetime from short-term creep data, various parametric methods such as Larson-Miller (L-M), Orr-Sherby-Dorn (O-S-D), Manson-Haferd (M-H) parameters, and Minimum Commitment Method (MCM) were suggested. A number of the creep data were collected through literature surveys and experimental data produced in KAERI for predicting the creep life of type 316LN SS. The polynomial equations for predicting the creep life were obtained by the time-temperature parameters (TTP) and the MCM. Standard error (SE) and standard error of mean (SEM) values were compared for the each method with temperatures. The TTP methods were good in the creep-life prediction, but the MCM was much superior to the TTP ones at 700℃ and 750℃. It was found that the MCM were lower in the SE values when compared to the TTP methods.
Taylor 급수를 이용한 617 합금의 장시간 크리프 수명 예측
윤송남(Song-Nan Yin),김우곤(Woo-Gon Kim),박재영(Jae-Young Park),김선진(Soen-Jin Kim),김용완(Yong-Wan Kim) 대한기계학회 2010 大韓機械學會論文集A Vol.34 No.4
본 연구에서는 McVetty 와 Monkman-Grant 의 모델에 기초하여 만들어진 새로운 크리프 수명예측 모델인 Taylor 급수(T-S) 모델을 제안하였다. 본 모델은 회귀분석에서 발생하는 오차를 줄이기 위하여 McVetty 모델에서 sinh 함수를 Taylor 급수에 의해 변환한 후 첫 3 개항을 취한 것으로서 모델중의 상수 값은 통계학적 방법인 최대가능성 기법을 이용하여 결정되었다. T-S 모델을 이용하여 Alloy 617 의 크리프 수명을 예측한 결과 Eno, 지수함수 및 Larson-Miller(L-M) 방법에 비해 더 정확한 예측을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 T-S 모델은 특정 온도에서 크리프 수명 예측을 할 수 있는 등온 T-S(IT-S) 모델로 표현될 수 있었으며, IT-S 모델은 Alloy 617 의 장시간 크리프 수명예측에서 가장 좋은 예측을 하는 것으로 나타났다. In this study, a Taylor series (T-S) model based on the Arrhenius, McVetty, and Monkman-Grant equations was developed using a mathematical analysis. In order to reduce fitting errors, the McVetty equation was transformed by considering the first three terms of the Taylor series equation. The model parameters were accurately determined by a statistical technique of maximum likelihood estimation, and this model was applied to the creep data of alloy 617. The T-S model results showed better agreement with the experimental data than other models such as the Eno, exponential, and L-M models. In particular, the T-S model was converted into an isothermal Taylor series (IT-S) model that can predict the creep strength at a given temperature. It was identified that the estimations obtained using the converted ITS model was better than that obtained using the T-S model for predicting the long-term creep life of alloy 617.