경매주택이 주변 주택가격에 미치는 영향 : 미국 캘리포니아 로스앤젤레스 도시를 사례로

원재웅(Won, Jae-woong),전재범(Jun, Jae-bum) 한국부동산정책학회 2017 不動産政策硏究 Vol.18 No.3

Many studies have examined the spillover effects of neighboring foreclosures on nearby property values. While the previous studies have focused on single-family home s spillover effects, little has examined the effect of foreclosures on the sales price for condominium homes. In addition, this research focus on the auction stage of foreclosure, which has not much paid attention in the literature. By using a rich dataset on foreclosures and property values for the City of Los Angeles, California from January 2008 to December 2010, we analyze the Cliff-Ord spatial regression model to estimate the price spillover effects of foreclosed condominium properties at auction stage. The results show the negative and significant impacts on nearby property values.

공공임대주택 유형별 근린환경 특성과 주거만족도 비교분석 연구

원재웅(Won, Jae-woong),이재수(Lee, Jae-Su) 한국부동산정책학회 2018 不動産政策硏究 Vol.19 No.2

The policy for public rental houses has mitigated the housing shortage problem for low-income households in Korea. The public rental housing is now provided as diverse types differentiated by region, residential type, and supplier. Studies have examined the factors associated with residents satisfaction on their neighborhood environments for implementing more effective public rental housing policies. However, most studies used perceived neighborhood environmental factors, which were also measured with very limited, vague survey items. In this study, we examined how objective neighborhood environmental factors are different across the types of public rental housing, using geospatial data from diverse sources published by public. We found the significant difference in the neighborhood factors across the types of public rental housing. The results suggest the future research that explores the associations between objective neighborhood measures and resident s satisfaction.

미국 리츠 수익률 변동성 결정 요인에 관한 연구 - Markov Switching AR모형을 중심으로-

윤만식 ( Man-sik Yoon ),원재웅 ( Jae-woong Won ) 한국부동산분석학회 2023 부동산분석학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2023 No.0

본 연구의 목적은 미국내 거시경제변수와 미국 리츠의 변동성 사이의 관계를 파악하고, 리츠 시장 변동성 결정요인을 파악하는데 에 있다. 미국 리츠의 가격변동에서의 경기국면 특성을 2-상태 마코프 국면전환모형을 이용 미국리츠시장의 변동성을 실증분석 하고자 하였다. 3단계 분석과정으로 미국 리츠의 변동성과 결정 요인을 파악하고자 하였다. 첫째, 지분형 리츠 및 모기지형 리츠의 수익율 변동성을 추정하고자 조건부 변동성 모형 GARCH 모형을 사용하였고, 지분형 리츠 및 모기지형 리츠는 GARCH(1, 1) 모형으로 추정이 가장 적합한 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, GARCH 모형을 통해 지분형 리츠 및 모기지형 리츠 변동성 추정 시계열 자료를 생성하여 이를 종속 변수로 설정하였고, NDS(미국산업생 산지수), CPI(미국소비자물가지수), UNEMP(미국실업률), CREDITSP(신용스프레드)를 설명 변수로 설정하여 시차를 반영한 자기회귀시차모형(ARDL) OLS 추정을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 설명 변수들은 시차를 두고 가격 변동성에 영향을 주고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 셋째, 본 연구는 변동성의 높은 국면과 낮은 국면을 구분하고 설명 변수의 영향력을 보기 위하여 마코프 국면전환 AR(MSAR)모형으로 분석하였다. 모든 설명 변수는 OLS 추정시 사용한 것과 동일한 변수와 시차를 사용하였다. 분석 결과, 변동성의 크기에 따른 높은 국면과 낮은 국면에서의 변동성에 미치는 요인들은 서로 다른 요인이라는 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

프롭테크 플랫폼의 활용이 부동산중개서비스 산업에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

김유수(Yu-Soo Kim),원재웅(Jaewoong Won) 한국부동산정책학회 2022 不動産政策硏究 Vol.23 No.3

Consumer demand for PropTech industries that combine IT technology and real estate industries is increasing. PropTech is growing in various industries related to real estate, such as real estate valuation, data provision, and real estate transactions. In particular, as real estate information acquisition through the platform is expected to become active and transactions are expected, the prop-tech industry is expected to be incorporated in the real estate brokerage industry. At this point, this study aims to find out how the growth of the prop-tech industry changes in the real estate market and how it affects the practical use of the real estate brokerage industry. In this study, we investigated whether the real estate big data platform actually helps brokers improve their expertise in the field, increase customer reliability, and increase profitability by improving competitiveness, and analyzed various measurement items and structural equations. The structural model between latent variables created based on the confirmation factor analysis model was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the real estate big data platform had a positive effect on the real estate market for the expertise, reliability, and profitability of the real estate brokerage among the changes in the perception of the real estate broker. On the other hand, it was found that it would negatively affect the competitiveness of the authorized brokerage business. Although PropTech was generally recognized to have a positive effect on the development of the licensed real estate agent, it suggests that the role of licensed real estate agents is needed to strengthen competitiveness.

제주특별자치도 주택시장 변동에 미치는 영향 요인 분석

김여진(Kim, Yeo-Jin),원재웅(Won, Jae-Woong) 한국부동산정책학회 2018 不動産政策硏究 Vol.19 No.1

Recent studies have investigated the different housing market fluctuations across heterogeneous local housing markets. However, little is known about factors associated with housing price fluctuations for segmented markets in the Jeju Island area, Korea. In this study, the housing market in Jeju is categorized into relatively stable and unstable areas based on sales and rental price fluctuations. We used PLS (Partial Least Squares or Projection to Latent Structure) regression to estimate the associations between neighborhood factors and sales and rental price fluctuations between 2015 and 2017. The results showed that the increases in land price, housing and land transactions, and the number of foreign buyers were important factors fluctuated sales and rental prices in Jeju housing market.

서울 전출입 가구의 주거이동 특성과 이동 요인 연구

이재수(Lee, Jae-Su),원재웅(Won, Jaewoong) 대한국토·도시계획학회 2017 國土計劃 Vol.52 No.5

아파트 실거래가를 기반한 전월세전환율의 영향요인 분석

윤만식(Mansik Yoon),원재웅(Jae Woong Won),김상진(Sang Jin Kim) 한국부동산정책학회 2023 不動産政策硏究 Vol.24 No.1

전월세전환율에 영향을 주는 요인에 대한 이론적 가정 및 선행연구들을 살펴보고 전월세전환율결정요인을 실증적 분석을 실시하였다. 연구대상으로 선정한 지역범위는 아파트 매매, 전세, 월세 거래가 가장 활발한 지역인 강남 3구(서초구, 강남구, 송파구)와 기타 3구(강동구, 양천구, 노원구)이다. 본 연구에서는 전월세전환율 결정요인에 관한 실증적으로 분석하고자 이영수(2008)의 방법론인 변수간 이론적 제약을 바탕으로 둔 SVAR모형을 사용하였다. 전월세전환율의 주요 영향 요인으로는 국고채 3년 수익률, 지역별 전세가율, 부동산시장소비심리지수, 주택담보대출금액 등을 선정하였다. 부동산시장심리지수를 제외한 변수는 전월세전환율에 영향을 미친 것으로 나타났다. 지역별로는 다른 형태로 나타나고 있었는데 기타3구의 전월세전환율이 강남3구의 전월세전환율보다 더 크게 반응하였다. This study examines the theoretical assumptions and previous studies on the factors affecting the conversion rate for Jeonse to Monthly Payment and conducts an empirical analysis of the determinants of the conversion rate for Jeonse to Monthly Payment. The study covers three regions in Seoul of Gangnam (Seocho-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Songpa-gu) and three regions in Seoul (Gangdong-gu, Yangcheon-gu, and Nowon-gu), which are the most active areas for apartment sales, rental, and leasing transactions. In order to empirically analyze the determinants of the conversion rate for Jeonse to Monthly Payment, this study uses the SVAR model based on theoretical constraints between variables, a methodology developed by Lee (2008). The main influencing factors of the conversion rate for Jeonse to Monthly Payment are the 3-year government bond yield, the conversion rate for Jeonse to Monthly Paymentby region, real estate market consumer sentiment index, and mortgage loan amount. The variables except for the real estate market sentiment index had an impact on the sublease conversion rate. By region, the effect was different, with the conversion rate for Jeonse to Monthly Payment in 3 regions (Gangdong-gu, Yangcheon-gu, and Nowon-gu) responding more strongly than in 3 regions (Gangnam (Seocho-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Songpa-gu).

MBS 채무불이행의 영향요인 분석

조명환(Myeonghwan Cho),원재웅(Jaewoong Won),전재범(Jaebum Jun) 한국부동산정책학회 2022 不動産政策硏究 Vol.23 No.3

The purpose of this paper is to identify and study impact factors on the default risk likely to happen in MBS. So, MBS data given from the Korea Housing Finance Corporation and some factors, which are selected based on literature review, seeming relevant to default in MBS are applied to a VAR model. As a result, apartment price and new loan interest rate turn out to be statistically significant for default risk.

음식특화거리 방문제약요인 도출을 통한 방문객의 시장세분화에 관한 연구

문소연(Soyeon Moon),원재웅(Jaewoong Won),조미희(Meehee Cho) 한국관광연구학회 2018 관광연구저널 Vol.32 No.9

공공임대주택 거주자의 주거이전 의사에 따른 주택 선택요인 분석

이슬기(Lee, Seul-Gi),고정희(Ko, Jung-Hi),원재웅(Won, Jae-woong) 한국부동산정책학회 2020 不動産政策硏究 Vol.21 No.2

This study examined the factors that affect the residential mobility decision of public rental housing residents. We used the 2019 Korea Housing Survey data published from the government website. We used two binary outcome variables to analyze binary logistic regressions for two binary outcomes: whether or not have a plan to move into one’s own house and whether or not have a plan to move into rental house. Considering the residential mobility plan with expected housing size, we also analyzed a multinomial logistic regression for the multinomial outcome variable (plan to move into own house with bigger size or smaller size, plan to move into rental house with bigger size or smaller size). The analysis showed that the four variables - household size, jeonse status, preferred housing area and monthly gross income on the move - have a positive impact on the self-movement of residents of rental houses. On the other hand, housing periods for rental houses, accessibility to public transportation, satisfaction with the educational environment and total debt amount have a negative impact on the self-movement of residents of rental houses.