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가계부채 연체율에 영향을 주는 요인 연구- 의사결정나무를 활용한 변수 중요도를 이용하여 -
오규만,이명훈 한국주거환경학회 2019 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.17 No.3
The increase in household debt could be attributed to the overheating of the real estate market due to the psychological pursuit of buying due to the rise in house prices without accompanying economic growth. In the analysis using time series data, there are differences in the influence of variables depending on the duration of data, and it is difficult to analyze mutual influences on various variables due to the restriction of the number of variables to be selected and analyzed. Therefore, in this study, we try to derive the effect of household debt delinquency ratio on interest rate and Stock through decision tree. Decision tree analysis shows that Cofix and M2 have the greatest effect on the household delinquency rate. As a result of analyzing the short-term equilibrium relationship, the delinquency rate of household debt, interest rate, home market consumer sentiment index, mortgage loan amount, and money amount (M2) are affected by the present time difference (t). The volume of money and the consumer sentiment index of the housing market showed a short-term effect on the household delinquency rate. The unemployment rate and the consumer sentiment index of the housing market affect the interest rate. The monetary amount is analyzed as the housing market consumer sentiment index and the amount of the mortgage loan affects the unemployment rate. In order to reduce the delinquency rate of the household debt, it is necessary to maintain the policy of restraining the amount of mortgage loan in the real estate market, and the investment in the capital market should be made in the market capital. Also, it will be necessary to raise the interest rate carefully in order to manage household debt. In addition to the indicators used in this study, research using other variables should be continued. This should lead to a more precise relationship with household debt delinquency. 가계부채 증가세는 경제성장에 동반하지 않고 집값 상승에 따른 심리적인 매수추구에 따른 부동산 시장 과열 때문으로 풀이되며 시계열 데이터를 이용한 분석에서는 데이터의 지속시간에 따라 변수의 영향의 차이가 있으며, 선택·분석할 변수 개수의 제약으로 다양한 변수에 대한 상호 영향의 분석이 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 거시경제 변수중 금리와 통화량의 변수를 의사결정나무를 통해 가계부채 연체율에 미치는 변수를 최적화하였으며, 가계부채에 영향을 미치는 요인을 도출하였다. 의사결정 결정나무 변수 분석에 따르면 코픽스와 M2는 가계 연체율에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 변수로 파악되었으며 단기균형관계 분석 결과 가계부채 연체율, 금리, 주택시장 소비심리지수, 주택담보대출액, 통화량(M2) 등이 현재의 시차(t)에 영향을 받고 있다. 주택시장의 통화량과 소비심리지수는 가계 연체율에 단기적인 영향을 미쳤으며 주택시장의 실업률과 소비심리지수가 금리에 영향을 미친다. 통화량은 주택시장 소비심리지수와 주택담보대출 금액이 실업률에 영향을 미치기 때문에 분석된다. 가계부채 연체율을 낮추려면 부동산시장에서 주택담보대출 금액을 억제하는 현 정부의 부동산 정책은 유지할 필요가 있고, 자본시장에 대한 투자는 시장자본으로 투자가 이어져야 한다. 또 가계부채 관리를 위해서는 신중하게 금리를 올릴 필요가 있을 것이다. 본 연구에 사용된 지표 외에도, 다른 변수를 이용한 가계부채 연체율에 대한 연구는 계속되어야 하며 이를 통해 가계부채 연체와의 다른 영향관계 분석으로 이어져야 한다.
대도시 고가아파트 주거만족과 추천의도에 대한 영향 분석 - 서울과 부산을 중심으로 -
오규만,이명훈 한국주거환경학회 2019 주거환경(한국주거환경학회논문집) Vol.17 No.4
The purpose of this study is to understand the wealthy in the housing market, to develop housing products, to empirically analyze the characteristics of residential apartments and their preferences, and to reflect them in the housing preferences of luxury residential consumers. In addition, the preference of the residence for the wealthy in urban development will be a desire for everyone if it is a condition, and it may give an implication of gradual improvement of housing. First, the satisfaction of luxury apartment housing is given priority to brand image, envy, and value increase of assets that raise pride of Korea 1% through external image. Educational factors such as school districts around them have already secured facilities and have no effect on direct residential satisfaction. Second, as a result of comparative analysis between Seoul and Busan, both Seoul and Busan put priority on luxurious image and economic rise. This means that the high-end image in the residential area can be accepted as a connotative meaning by the combination of residential traffic, home appliances, and surrounding conditions, and the increase of asset value is given priority along with the image. Third, the difference between Seoul and Busan is included in the recommendation of view in Busan, but in Seoul, the stability of old age life and high-tech facilities are considered. This study has drawn implications through empirical analysis of influential variables on residential satisfaction of luxury apartments targeting Seoul and Busan. Nevertheless, the concrete and three-dimensional results such as the value judgment by generation did not realize what each age group thought, and the recent new construction and the concrete research on the existing old building were not done, which is the limit of the study. 본 연구의 목적은 주택 시장의 고가아파트를 이해하고, 주택 상품을 개발하고, 주거 아파트의 특성과 선호도를 실증적으로 분석하며, 고가 주택 소비자의 주거 선호도에 반영하기 위함이다.또 도시개발에서 고가아파트를 위한 주거를 선호하는 것은 누구에게나 욕구가 될 것이며, 주택의 점진적 개선의 암시를 줄 수도 있다.첫째, 고가 아파트 주택의 만족도는 브랜드 이미지, 시기심, 외부 이미지를 통해 한국의 1%의 자부심을 높이는 자산의 가치 상승에 우선한다. 주변 학군 등 교육 요인은 이미 시설을 확보했고 직접적인 주거만족에 영향을 주지 않는다.둘째, 서울과 부산을 비교 분석한 결과 서울과 부산은 모두 호화로운 이미지와 경제적 상승을 우선시했다. 주거지역의 고급 이미지는 주거교통, 가전, 주변여건의 조합에 의해 함축적 의미로 받아들여질 수 있으며, 이미지와 함께 자산가치의 증가가 우선시된다는 의미다.셋째, 서울과 부산의 차이점은 부산에서는 조망을 추천의도에 포함되지만, 서울에서는 노후생활의 안정성과 첨단시설의 안정성을 고려한다.이번 연구는 서울과 부산을 대상으로한 고가 아파트의 주거만족도에 영향을 미치는 변수를 실증적으로 분석해 시사점을 이끌어냈다.그럼에도 불구하고 세대별 가치판단 등 구체적이고 입체적인 결과는 각 연령대의 주거의식 연구를 하지못한 점과 최근 새로 지은 건축물과 기존 낡은 건물에 대한 구체적인 연구가 이뤄지지 않은것은 연구의 한계다.
아파트 거래활성화 요인이 아파트 가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 서울 및 6대 광역시를 중심으로
오규만 한국도시재생학회 2016 도시재생 Vol.2 No.2
Recently, there has been a financial crisis in Europe, and since apartment prices are also correlated with economic fluctuations, in order to analyze the variables affecting apartment prices in Seoul and 6 metropolitan cities with the independent variables, the amount of mortgage loan, which is the economic index, and the unsold housing and transaction volume, which is the housing index, we conducted empirical analysis with monthly data of the Bank of Korea, Statistics Korea, Korea Appraisal Institute and Kookmin Bank for 91 months from January 2009 to July 2016. First, due to the characteristics of Seoul and 6 metropolitan cities, the direction and weight values of the variables are different. When the amount of mortgage loan increases, the apartment price increases, and when the unsold housing is increased, the apartment price decreases, and when the transaction volume increases, the apartment price increases. The results were changed according to the regional variation. Second, as a result of the impact response, the amount of mortgage loans, transaction volume, and unsold housing units are affecting apartment prices. The range of time difference of variables was different according to dependent and independent variables in Seoul and 6 metropolitan cities. Third, the hypothesis that real estate is a market that is incomplete due to the limit of information and a heterogeneous market depending on the region is confirmed in this study, and the price may also be changed differently according to the variables.
Rompun을 투여(投與)한 흰쥐 가토(家兎) 및 견(犬)의 실질장기(實質臟器)에 대한 조직학적관찰(組織學的觀察)
오규실,이차수,Oh, Kyu-shil,Lee, Cha-soo 대한수의학회 1984 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.24 No.2
The present study was carried out to observe the histological changes of the parenchymal organs of the rats, rabbits and dogs intramuscularly injected with Rompun. The results observed are snmmarized as follows; The hematologic changes of the rabbits and dogs administered with Rompun were a pronounced decrease in erythrocytes and leucocytes. The percentage of lympocytes was decreased, while that of neutrophils was increased. There were severe hyperemia of spleen, hyperemia and extention of the central vein of the liver, centrilobular degeneration of liver, hyperemia and hemorrhage of the kidney, necrosis and hydropic degeneration of renal tubule, hyperemia of pulmonary alveolar septa and pulmonary edema. and in the cases injected with Rompun and histamine or pentothal sodium at the same time, the microscopical findings described above were more conspicuous than the cases injected with Rompun alone.
실험적 돼지 삼출성 표피염에 관한 병리학적 연구 II. 피부의 면역조직화학적 및 전자현미경적 관찰
오규실,이차수,Oh, Kyu-shil,Lee, Cha-soo 대한수의학회 1995 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.35 No.3
To elucidate pathologic change of skin in porcine exudative epidermitis, immunohistochemical and electron microscopical observations were carried out in the skin of the suckling pigs inoculated with Staphylococcus hyicus subsp hyicus which were isolated from natural case. In immunohistochemistry, ATPase-positive dendritic cells were more populated in epidermo-dermal junctional areas and perivascular area in dermis than in epidermal area as the disease was proceeded. These dendritic cells were identified as Langerhans cell by immunoperoxidase staining and these cells were populated granulomatous bodies. Electron microscopical study showed various retrogressive degeneration and vacuolation of epidermal cell organelles with retention of amorphorous exudates in intercellular space, and cellular seperation. Langerhans cells present in intercellular space of epidermis were populated in epidermo-dermal junctional areas, in dermis, and around granulomatous bodies. Langerhans cells contained decreased Birbeck granules in number but increased lysosome and ribosome. These cells were in contact with lymphocytes. This study was discussed relation between the various immunocytes and the formation of granulomatous bodies, and this inflammation was considered as delayed type hypersensitivity.
오규한,유제춘,최경숙,주은정,정성훈 대한신경정신의학회 2015 PSYCHIATRY INVESTIGATION Vol.12 No.1
ObjectiveaaSecond-generation antipsychotics have been repeatedly shown to be superior to placebo. However, the comparative efficacy among these drugs has not been systematically evaluated. In this study, we used Mixed Treatment Comparison (MTC) procedures to elucidate the comparative efficacy and tolerability of second-generation antipsychotics. MethodsaaSeven antipsychotics were selected based on the availability of the relevant data. Data were gathered from a series of review article published by the Cochrane Collaboration. Six outcome measures were analyzed: 1) percentage of no clinically important response as defined by the original authors, 2) PANSS total score change from baseline to endpoint, 3) percentage of akathisia, 4) percentage of antiparkinson medication use, 5) percentage of total body weight increase more than 7%, and 6) percentage of drop-out due to any reasons. ResultsaaAll the second-generation antipsychotics included in this study showed fairly similar efficacy but widely different tolerability. In terms of efficacy, amisulpride, clozapine and olanzapine were ranked higher than aripiprazole, quetiapine and ziprasidone. Clozapine and olanzapine were superior in terms of akathisia and extrapyramidal symptom risk, but, far more prone to induce clinically important weight gain. ConclusionaaUsing MTC methodology, we could line up the second generation antipsychotics according to their hierarchical superiority in terms of efficacy and tolerability. Though the wide overlap among the confidence intervals and the inconsistency between the direct and indirect comparison results may limit the validity of these results, it may still allow the important insights into the relative merits of the available drugs.
실험적 돼지 삼출성 표피염에 관한 병리학적 연구 I. 육안적 및 병리조직학적 관찰
오규실,이차수,Oh, Kyu-shil,Lee, Cha-soo 대한수의학회 1994 大韓獸醫學會誌 Vol.34 No.4
To elucidate morphologic lesion of porcine exudative epidermitis which is occurred sporadically in Korea, Staphylococcus hyicus subsp. hyicus isolated from the naturally affected pigs was inoculated to suckling pigs. The infected piglets were observed grossly and histopathologically. Although affected piglets were taking acute, subacute, or chronic course, some piglets suffered from chronic disease showed poor prognosis and marked growth depression. Affected peglets had erythematous skin on the face, ear, and abdomen and these localized lesions appear as brownish spots of exudative epidermitis and fromed crust in the early stage. But, after this stage, the skin were covered by viscous greasy exudate and formed blackish brown crust and appeared fissures and hypertrophy. Grossly, there has been hemorrhage with the removal of crust-like materials of epidermis and edematous subcutis. The superficial lymph nodes were edematous and swollen or congested and hemorrhagic. Some piglets had swollen ureters, cysts in the renal cortex, or polyarthritis. A few cases had mild edematous swelling of kidney, intestinal catarrh and congestion of brain. Microscopically, skin lesions had detachment of keralinized layer and parakeratosis of epidermis, hydropic degeneration of epidermal cell, and retrogressive degeneration of hair root sheath. Dermis had edema, and infiltration of neutrophils and mononuclear cells. As the disease was proceeded, there was marked perivasculitis with lots of mononuclear inflammatory cells. More chronic lesions formed granuloma-like bodies(nodules) due to more mononuclear, perivascular inflammatory cell infiltration and proliferation of fibroblast. Lots of plasma cells and eosinophils were also present in dermis. Epidermis was hyperplastic by proliferation of basal cells stratum germinativum and epidermal pegs often extended into the dermis. In secondary infection, lots of neutrophils could be seen in epidermis and derms. Kidney had neutrophilic infiltration, necrotic and cystic glomeruli, and dilation of renal tubules and ureters. Purulent arthritis was sometimes observed in joints. Three days old mice administrated Staphylococcus hyicus subsp hyicus subcutaneously before had focal congestion and hemorrhage, necrosis, and subcutaneous edema of the skin. This observation was also seen in the study of mice administrated exfoliatin toxin of Staphylococcus which evoked human staphylococcal scalded skin syndrome.