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중국의 국내정치 발전과 대외정책 : 중장기 전망 Middle and Long Term Prospects
신상진 한국전략문제연구소 1997 전략연구 Vol.4 No.1
The purpose or this research is to analyze the political, economic, social and military developments in China and their implications for the evolution of Chinese foreign policy, especially policy toward the Korean peninsula. In the second chapter, the author predicts the Chinese domestic change directions from middle and long term prospects. Followings are the major findings of this study. The existing Chinese collective leadership as Jiang Zemin core and top of it will exercise sovereign power until the CCP's 15th party congress which is scheduled to held in late 1997. The dangers of an immediate political crisis development on the occasion of Deng's death are clear to everyone within the elite group. The collective leadership, however, will change gradually after Li Peng's retirement from the premiership in the 9th National People's Congress. Collective leadership structure will likely prove difficult to maintain especially over the long term. The domestic changes over the next couple of years will almost certainly not produce a significantly more dramatic and pro-Western regime: neither will they lead to the emergence of indepenent regional power centers or the complete breakdown of political rule in China. Collective leadership is likely to inhibit bold policy initiatives, and may only support incrementalism. But post-Deng leaders will recognize that their hold on power and socio-political stability will rests heavily on their ability to achieve concrete economic success and to make life materially better for the vast majority of the Chinese people. Therefore they will pursue rapid economic development policies. Performance will be seen as what counts and economic performance will be the linchpin of the continued political legitimacy of the communist leaders in China. During Jiang Zemin leadership consolidates power base, the military will increase its political influence. The common political weakness of the civilian successors will probably encounter increasing pressures to placate the armed forces on key domestic and foreign policy issues. After the new Chinese leadership surmount political transition, there is a possibility that the military intervention in policy making process will be declined gradually. Chinese leaders will use ideological and nationalistic appeals to try to establish emotive base for leadership. Chinese nationalism and patriotism will be a significant source of regime legitimacy. In the third chapter, the author predicts Chinese foreign policy direction following domestic change. China will stress to develop friendly relations with neighboring countries to sustain stable economic progress. China will pursue a friendly relationship with the two potential adversaries, U.S. and Japan as far as its national sovereignty would not be violated. Because post-Deng leadership will be recruited with highly educated and professional politicians, China will take a pragmatic and realistic policies toward foreign countries. However, considering the possibilities of China's rising power and arms buildup, military intervention in policy making process and the patriotic nationalism, there will be growing tendency of assertive and agressive foreign policies. Post-Deng leadership will put more emphasis on the peace and stability of Korean peninsula in transition period, but from the long term prospects promotion of its influence will be more important policy object than status quo of the peninsula. Therefore, China will pursue an equal distance policy toward the two Koreas for sometime to come. And China will devote its all efforts to stop a rapid reunification of the peninsula through a sudden collapse of North Korea, combined with efforts to strengthen economic, political, and diplomatic ties with South Korea, both for developmental reasons, and in anticipation of its likely absorption of the North in 21st century. At the same time, the more U.S. and Japan reinforce rapprochement policy toward the North, the more important the North's strategic value to China. In the fourth chapter, the author presents ROK's policy recommendations: strengthen personal relationship with Chinese high level leaders, devote all energies to restore security confidence, treat Korean Chinese problems with caution, and readjust the industrial structure rapidly.
중 · 북, 미 · 북 정상회담 이후 중국의 대한반도 정책
신상진 한국외교협회 2018 외교 Vol.126 No.0
이글은 먼저 중국이 김정은의 중국방문을 허용하게 된 배경요인과 중 · 북 정상회담이 초래할 영향 그리고 미 · 북 싱가포르 정상회담에 대한 중국의 대응전략을 논의한 다음, 향후 중국이 한반도문제를 어떻게 다뤄나갈 것인지를 분석 · 전망하였다. 아울러 남 · 북관계 정상화, 중 · 북관계 복원 그리고 미 · 북관계 개선 등 한반도 및 동북아 질서의 대변화 시대에 우리가 유의해야 할 고려사항을 제시하였다. 중국의 대북 제재 조기 해제 등 중 · 북관계 복원이 가져 올 파급영향에 대비해야 하며 한반도문제 해결에 긍정적 영향을 미칠 수 있도록 중국을 견인하는 노력이 필요하다는 점을 강조하였으며, 중국이 한반도 평화체제 구축과정에서 소외될 것을 극도로 경계하고 있다는 사실을 유의하고 중국의 입장을 적극적으로 고려해야 한다는 점을 제시하였다. 아울러 한 · 중 및 한 · 미 · 중 전략대화를 적극 가동, 우리가 추진하는 한반도 비핵화와 평화체제 로드맵에 대한 중국의 지지와 협력유도 필요성을 강조했다.
${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ 추적 필터 이득 산출 연구
신상진,오선진,홍동희,박진규,Shin, Sang-Jin,Oh, Sun-Jin,Hong, Dong-Hee,Park, Jin-Kyu 한국군사과학기술학회 2007 한국군사과학기술학회지 Vol.10 No.4
This paper considers new filter gains for the ${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ tracker which is optimized particularly to minimize the tracking gate size. Optimizing the performance index which is composed of tracking errors due to target maneuver and measurement noise is not different from the existing method to obtain the ${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ gains. However, holding the probability 0.997 that a target exists in the tracking gate and minimizing the gate size produce the new result not similar to the existing ${\alpha}\;-\;{\beta}$ gains.