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신각수(SHIN Kak-Soo, 申珏秀) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2013 신아세아 Vol.20 No.4
In the second decade of the 21st century, the world is undergoing a significant paradigm shift. The hegemony enjoyed by the United States as the world's sole superpower since the end of the Cold War has been undermined by its economic downturn and military blunders in Afghanistan and Iraq. Along with the EU's financial malaise and Japan's long stagnation, America's relative decline stands in stark contrasts to the rise of "the rest" led by a resurgent China. This shift in economic power balance between the North and the South triggered a transition from the uni-polar order dominated by the United States since the 1990s to a multi-layered, multi-polar one. With the outburst of global issues, the international community has found itself in need of redesigning the global governance to incorporate this power shift. The world is currently witnessing the advent of the Pacific era with Asia's surge as the engine of world economic growth. Against this backdrop of the international order in flux, Northeast Asia has been witnessing the power transition arising from China's ascent, the US "pivot to Asia" and Japan's economic malaise. This power transition has placed the region in an unstable and unpredictable strategic environment, in turn saddling Korea with weathering rough waters of strategic rivalry between the major powers in the region. How should Korea cope with this difficult situation? Given the limited capacity to outmaneuver its big neighbors, Korea must act on the basis of dispassionate calculations, relying on the fine combination of strategic consistency and tactical flexibility. Korea's approach to address the strategic instability in the region should be complex, far-sighted and long-term. Furthermore, Korea should build sound and stable relations with its neighbors in a fine balancing act while attaching priority to national interests, principles and values in the inevitable moment of strategic choices. In this regard, priority should be given to the Seoul-Washington alliance at the same time as deepening strategic cooperative relationship with Beijing. It would be desirable to see a speedy recovery of the soured Korea-Japan relations as well as a constructive partnership with Russia. In a bid to create a desirable strategic environment, Korea should play a pivotal role in accelerating regional cooperation in Northeast Asia as well as the broader East Asia and Asia-Pacific region. Korea should also strive for an active middle power diplomacy and multilateral diplomacy to enhance its global position. Reinforcing existing ties with the ASEAN, the EU and emerging powers like India, Brazil and South Africa is also crucial for expanding its strategic depth.