김정은 건강이상설과 북한붕괴론에서 나타난 언론보도의 문제점과 교훈

송승종 ( Seong Song-jong ) 한국군사학회 2020 군사논단 Vol.102 No.-

North Korea’s notorious dictator Kim Jong-un disappeared for around twenty days since the 11th of April, prompting widely spreaded rumours running the gamut from ‘cardiac or cardiovascular surgery,’ ‘vegetative situation,’ ‘99% sure of Kim’s death,’ ‘unable to walk or stand up by himself’ to ‘Power Succession by Kim Yo-jong (his biological sister).’ All the report turned out to be ‘fake news’ as Kim Jong-un made the first appearance after a prolonged hiatus at a May Day celebration, where he was pictured waving hands, laughing and smoking. Even it was known that some local medias stopped short of releasing the ‘sudden death of Kim Jong-un’ articles on the internet. Both South Korean and the U.S. governments bent their backwards to deny the speculations that Kim Jong-un was gravely ill after heart surgery. But such statements were misinterpreted as an attempt to temporarily paper over the serious situation of Kim Jong-un’s overall health. The first shot that triggered cascades of false reports seemed to have been fired by CNN’s ‘exclusive report’ which claimed that he was in “in grave danger after undergoing a previous surgery,” citing “a US official with direct knowledge.” After CNN’s report, Yomiuri-Shimbun, Shūkan Gendai (週刊現代, Modern Weekly), Daily Mail, Daily Express, as well as China’s Sina-Weibo (新浪微博), Weixin (微信) and other medias jumped on the wagon of generating and expanding ‘fakes news’ in an indiscriminate and reckless manner. Aforementioned incident has something in common with ‘North Korea’ Collapse’ theory which has been persistently raised from the 1990s. The commonality between two seems to be that they are based on nonsensical and even idiotic ‘wishful thinking’ rather than on facts on the ground. The upshot of the problem appears that while Kim jong-un’s long delayed appearance quelled in effect all the rumors revolving around his whereabouts and health conditions, that would not be the end of story. In other words, in a sense, such unfounded rumors and fabricated stories might be the single biggest obstacles which would hamper laying out and implementing viable, sustainable, and forward-looking policies toward Pyongyang. During the course of attaining such goals, damages inflicted on the credibility, reliability and trustworthiness of parties concerned (for example, some medias, experts, pundits, politicians and so forth) will not merely confined to themselves. Against this backdrop, there seems to be nearly no objections to the argument that the biggest person benefitted by this pandemonium might be none other than Kim Jong-un. In this regard, it is imperative that the general public form a consensus to insure that the Aesop’s Fables about ‘the Boy Who Cried Wolf’ would not be replayed in the future, more than anything else.

INF 조약 파기 이후, 강대국 간 군비경쟁 및 대한반도 함의

송승종(Song Seong-jong) 한국외교협회 2020 계간 외교 Vol.- No.132

니제르 쿠데타와 아프리카 사헬지역의 위기

송승종 ( Song Seong-jong ) 한국군사학회 2023 군사논단 Vol.115 No.-

In the midst of the Ukrainian military’s much-anticipated counter- offensive in the Donbass and Crimea regions, a notable development occurred on 26 July with a military coup in Niger. This event has significant potential to profoundly affect the ongoing war in Ukraine, alongside the United States’ ongoing counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel region of Africa over the past two decades. The main objective of this essay is to identify the underlying causes that led to the coup in Niger. It also aims to provide a multifaceted perspective on the far-reaching implications of this event for the global war on terror. With this goal in mind, subsequent to the introduction, Chapter 2 will delve into the underlying causes behind the coup. Chapter 3 will then confront the matter of completing the “coup belt” through the occurrences in Niger-a nation that has long stood as a dependable ally on the counterterrorism forefront-and the far-reaching implications it entails. Moving ahead, Chapter 4 will scrutinize the consequences for Wager, a paramilitary entity formed through the collaboration of French-American and Russian elements. Lastly, Chapter 5 will provide a conclusion, synthesizing the strategic insights that emerge from the analysis of these unfolding events.

유엔사령부의 국제법적 위상에 관한 재조명

송승종(Song, Seong-jong) 국방부 군사편찬연구소 2020 군사 Vol.- No.117

The underlying dilemma among the general public in South Korea is a gross mismatch between the economic superiority and security concern, especially military arena, in the context of inter-Korea relations. One the one hand, the South Korea’s economy is more than 50 times as large as that of the North, while majority of South Korean have a disproportionately serious security concern from the North Korea’s military threat. In its relentless quest for the occupation of Korean peninsula on its own terms, Pyongyang regards the United Nations Command (UNC) in Korea as an intermediate barrier in the path of the eventual elimination of the United States Forces in Korea (USFK) along with the ROK-U.S. alliance from the peninsula. In essence, from North Korea’s viewpoint, the UNC is the weakest link in the triangle framework, which is consisted of UNC, USFK and the ROK-U.S. alliance, and that as such, its demise is just a matter of time when the declaration of the end of (Korean) war, peace treaty and/or the transfer of Operational Control (OPCON) are to be realized in the not so distant future. Against this backdrop, the crucial question to be raised is whether the UNC is a lawful subsidiary organization of the United Nation. The implication and repercussion of the answer goes far beyond the level of binary “Yes, or No” reply. Rather, it will be directly related to the heart of such issues as the UNC’s legal foundation and raison d’être, the awfulness of its establishment, its international status and prominence, as well as its termination or existence in the future times to come. The subject-matter of this study is exploring a substantive answer to the afore-mentioned question: “Is the UNC is a lawful subsidiary element of the United Nation?” To attain the research purpose, the Chapter II followed by the Introduction will focus on the nature of relations between the UN primary elements and subsidiary ones, including the delegation of powers to UN subsidiary organs in the context of the UN Charter. The Chapter III will undertake a case study of the UNC in Korea, with particular emphasis on the legally verified organs of Security Council in establishing the subsidiary organ, the delegation of its powers to UNC as well as to member states. Lastly, Chapter IV will include the major findings of this study, along with policy implications to be taken into account in strengthening functions, roles and prominences of the UNC in the future.

민군관계의 주인-대리인 이론과 그 함의에 관한 연구

송승종(Song, Seong-jong) 한국전략문제연구소 2018 전략연구 Vol.25 No.3

트럼프 행정부는 출범과 동시에, 골드만삭스(Goldman-Sachs), 퇴역 장군(Generals), 초갑부(Gazillionaires)를 의미하는 ‘3G 내각’이라는 별명을 얻었다. 국가안보보좌관, CIA 국장, 국토안보부장관 같은 핵심보직들에 제대군인들이 임명되자 민군관계 악화와 군사정권(junta)에 대한 우려도 제기되었다. 최근 들어서는 「뉴욕타임스(NYT)」에 게재된 익명의 사설, 백악관의 이면을 파헤친 우드워드(Bob Woodward)의 저서 출판 등을 계기로 트럼프 행정부에서 ‘쿠데타’ 논란이 발생하였다. 비슷한 시기에 국내에서도 구시대의 유물로 간주되었던 ‘쿠데타 음모설’이 새삼스럽게 터져 나와 일대 혼란이 빚어졌다. 사실 오늘날 미국이나 한국 사회에서 쿠데타가 벌어지는 상황은 불가능에 가깝다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 이 문제가 재차 논란의 대상이 되는 것은 민군관계가 여전히 사회전반에 심대한 정치적 파장을 일으킬 수 있는 ‘현재진행형’의 중요한 이슈임을 방증한다. 이 논문의 목적은 크게 보아 두 가지다. 첫째, 헌팅턴이 『군인과 국가』에서 제기한 ‘냉전퍼즐’의 문제점을 적시하고, 그 문제점을 해소할 수 있는 대안으로 피버가 발전시킨 ‘주인-대리인 모델’을 제시해 보는 것이다. 둘째, 주인-대리인 모델을 한국적 상황에 적용하여, 문재인 정부의 출범과 동시에 발생하고 있는 민군관계의 변동성을 설명하고 그 함의를 짚어보며, 이를 기초로 시사점을 제시해 보고자 한다. At the outset of inauguration, the Trump administration earned an unsavory sobriquet of ‘3G cabinet’, an abbreviation of Goldman-Sachs, retired Generals, and Gazillionaires. When president Trump appointed ex-generals to crucial posts such as national security adviser, CIA director, and head of Homeland Security Department, an outburst of apprehension came to the surface for fear of the precipitous deterioration of civil-military relations, and even the potential off-chance emergence of ‘junta.’ Very recently, the controversy of ‘coup d" tat’ has abruptly emerged with the anonymous New York Times article and the Bob Woodward’s newly published book, titled Fear: Trump in the White House, which detailed chaotic scenes within the Trump’s inner circle. Almost simultaneously, ‘conspiracy of coup d" tat’, which has long regarded as a remanent of anachronistic past, broke out, thereby triggering a massive wave of mayhem and confusion. Truthfully, it is nearly impossible to imagine a possibility of coup d" tat’ taking place on the ground both in the U.S. and ROK. Nevertheless, the reason why this issue has taken a front and center stage in contemporary public discourse reflects the fact that civil-military relations is still an ongoing subject that can have profound political repercussions throughout the society in general. The primary purpose of this article is two-fold. First, I will put in perspective the ‘Cold War puzzle’ which was raised in Samuel P. Hunting’s seminal book of The Soldier and the State: Theory and Politics of Civil-Military Relations(1975), as well as to explore principal-agent theory proposed by Peter Feaver as an alternative to provide possible answers to so called ‘cold-war puzzle.’ Second, I intend to apply the principal-agent model to domestic context, and explain the volatilities in civil-military relations which began with the inauguration of Moon Jae-in administration, draw implications from the findings of this study, as well and deduce some lessons learned and relevant policy suggestions.

Obama 행정부의 아,태 재균형 전략 "중간" 평가

송승종 ( Seong Jong Song ) 국방대학교 안보문제연구소 2014 국방연구 Vol.57 No.4

이 글의 목적은 Obama 행정부의 아·태 회귀전략에 대한 ``중간평가``로서, 전략의 진전 사항과 성과보다는 장애요인을 중심으로 분석하고, 미·중관계에 대한 함의를 도출하는 것이다. ``Pivot``으로 시작된 아·태전략은 그 용어가 ``Rebalancing``으로 변화되고, 군사외에도 경제, 외교, 환경, 인권, 보건 등의 요소들로 보완되었다. 신전략의 핵심 구성요소는 군사, 경제 및 외교이다. 신전략은 Obama 행정부의 추진의지, 내용의 건실성 및 필요성에도 불구하고, 처음부터 시퀘스터라는 예산제약으로 어려움을 겪었다. 재균형 전략의 ``중간`` 평가를 위해 안보 딜레마와 군비경쟁, 국방예산 삭감, 중·러간 밀착, 미국리더십의 위기와 신고립주의 경향 등이 재균형 전략의 진전을 가로막는 주요 장애요인들로 선정되었다. 끝으로, ``중간``평가 결과를 요약하고, 아·태 재균형 전략의 맥락 속에서 미래 지향적 미·중관계 발전을 위한 시사점을 도출하였다. The main focus of this article is on the ``interim`` assessment of the Asia-Pacific Pivot or Rebalancing strategy which was put forward in the third year of the first Obama administration, through analyzing the obstacles of stumbling blocks in the process of implementing the strategy, thereby drawing strategic implications germane to the future oriented US-China relations. The new strategy, initially known as a ``pivot,`` has been renamed to ``rebalancing`` with a view to alleviating the suspicion about the connotation of ``containment`` policy against China, and reinforced and sophisticated by introducing multidimensional and multifaceted aspects such as economy, diplomacy, environment, human rights, and health, as well as military and security. The new strategy is known to be mainly composed of military, economic and diplomatic elements. Despite intense willingness of the US Administration for its implementation, and its robustness and urgent necessities, the strategy was faced with an onerous budgetary limitation dictated by the sequestration from the outset. For the purpose of the ``interim`` evaluation of the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy, security dilemma and arms race, the reduction of defense budget, the close relationship between China and Russia, the crisis of American leadership and the emergence of new ``isolationism`` were selected as main factors that are hampering the effective application of the new scheme. Lastly, this article aims at deducing the strategic implications for the forward-looking development of US-China relations in the context of the Asia-Pacific Rebalancing strategy.

독자적인 한국형 핵옵션의 모색

송승종 ( Song Seong-jong ) 한국군사학회 2023 군사논단 Vol.114 No.0

The primary objective of this paper is to critically examine the effectiveness of the Washington Declaration (WD) while recognizing it as a positive step forward. Adopting a “Devil’s Advocate” stance, the paper aims to explore the necessity of an independent Korean nuclear option. The research will be structured as follows: Chapter 1 provides an introduction, Chapter 2 conducts an exhaustive analysis of the lessons out of ongoing Ukraine War from multiple perspectives, Chapter 3 examines the implications of the Third Nuclear Age, Chapter 4 reflects on the implications of the Cold War 2.0 era (specifically, the status quo versus revisionism), and Chapter 5 presents potential alternatives for an indigenous Korean nuclear option. The paper concludes by synthesizing the findings and proposing recommendations.

미국 트럼프 행정부의 인도·태평양 전략

송승종 ( Song Seong-jong ) 한국군사학회 2020 군사논단 Vol.103 No.-

At this moment, the international community is witnessing in awe a cataclysmic system change in the existing international order mainly due to a powerful exogenous shock, which is called a coronavirus. While we see international order, which almost all of us are accustomed to and comfortable with, being dramatically upended, a coronavirus pandemic cannot be singled out as a sole cause of this upheaval. It is too early to predict with crystal ball on how or in what direction international order will be changed or transformed into, who will emerge as a ‘winner’, or even where there will be a ‘winner’ at all after the dust settled in the future times. The purpose of this essay is to examine the past and present of the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) the US is pursuing during the coronavirus crisis, and to have a educated-guess for the future of IPS on the basis of the analysis on its past and present trajectory. In order to fulfill the research purpose, Chapter II will review the historical background of IPS (past), followed by the Introduction. Chapter III will undertake a multidimensional analysis on Trump Administration’s IPS (present) with special focus on Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), US Marine’s Force Design 2020, and An Army Transformed: USINDOPACOM Hypercompetition and US Army Theater Design by Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). Last, Chapter IV will attempt to draw strategic implications what the present IPS might result in the future post-coronavirus period.

우크라이나 전쟁의 엔드게임 시나리오 전망과 한국에의 함의

송승종 ( Song Seong-jong ) 한국군사학회 2022 군사논단 Vol.110 No.-

The armed aggression by Russia against Ukraine which started from 24 February this year is still underway for nearly three months. Despite all the fog of war surrouding the war, one thing that can be said for sure is that Russia’s behavior is a baltant and barbaric illegal activities that fly in the face of international law, including the United Nations’s Charter. The primary purpose of the United Nations is to protect peace and security of global community through upholding international law, maintaining coordination of international peace and security, as well as facilitating cooperation for economic development. Among others, the most important mission of safeguarding responsibility to maintain peace and security falls on the shoulder of the Security Council, and Russia is one of its five permament members that are endowed with voto powers. Nonetheless, Russia violated Article 2.4 of die UN Charter which says that “All Members shall refrain…from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.” By analogy, international community established a police station (Security Council) to protect banks (member states) from bad guys (aggressiors). But Russia, to the contrary of its responsibilities and duties under the UN Charter, flagarantly committed a bank robbery (armed attack against Ukraine) under the bright daylight. The purpose of this paper is to raise a critical question that “What End-Game the Ukraine War would have in the future?” and to explore potential answers to the inquiry by means of postulating several scenarios that are deemed actionable and feasible. Chapter 2, followed by Chapter 1 will try to analyze four scenarios including ① Fall of Ukraine and the Eatablishment of Puppet Regime by Russia, ② Occupation of Donbass and Imposing Neutality Status on Ukraine, ③ Long War and Expansion of War over the Border, ④ Russian Defeat and Putin's Demise, ⑤ Russia’s Default due to International Sanctions. Lastly, in Chapter 3, I will attempt to draw lessons to be learned and strategic implicatons to the ROK on the basis of research result.

부상하는 ISIS 위협과 미국의 대응전략

송승종(Song, Seong-Jong) 한국전략문제연구소 2014 전략연구 Vol.- No.64

본 연구의 목적은 급격히 등장한 ISIS 위협의 실체 규명, 미국 대응전략의 문제점 분석, 그리고 향후 시사점 도출이다. 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 외형상 ISIS와 알카에다는 ‘의절(disown)’ 상태에 있으나, 향후 아프간 탈레반, 나이지리아 보코하람 등과 제휴하여 범세계적 테러연대를 결성할 가능성도 배제할 수 없다. 둘째, ISIS는 국가수립을 기도한 역사상 최초의 테러집단이자, 세계에서 가장 부유한 ‘하이브리드’ 테러집단이다. 셋째, 사태 발단의 원인제공 주체인 시리아 정권의 처리문제가 ISIS 전략의 성패를 좌우하는 관건이다. 넷째, 미국의 대응전략은 목표와 달성수단의 불일치(mismatch), 정보의 실패, 온건파 반군양성의 문제점, 이라크 수니파의 비협조 가능성 등으로 성공을 장담하기 어렵다. 다섯째, 임박한 미국 중간선거 및 차기 대선에서 ISIS 문제가 주요 이슈로 등장할 것으로 보인다. 이러한 분석에서 도출된 시사점으로서 첫째, 러시아?중국 등은 시리아 사태에 대한 미국의 처리과정을 주목하고 있을 것으로 보인다. 둘째, 연간 100억불을 상회하는 전비의 분담문제가 거론될 것이 예상된다. 셋째, 시리아 반군양성 노력이 역효과를 초래할 가능성도 있다. 끝으로 우리나라도 테러의 안전지대가 아님을 인식하여 철저한 대비가 필요하다. 결론적으로, ISIS 대응전략의 성공이 불확실한 가운데, 장기전의 조짐이 나타나는 것으로 평가된다. The main focus of this research is on (1) examining the threat posed by the surprising emergence of ISIS, (2) analyzing the problems with counter-ISIS strategy of the United States, and (3) drawing implications for the future. The findings of the research can be summarized as follows: (1) despite the seemingly al-Qaeda’s disavowal of ISIS, the possibility still remains that Afghanistan’s Taliban, Nigeria’s Boko Haram, ISIS and al-Qaeda might forge a united front of global terrorism in the face of the increasing pressure from the US-led coalition operation. (2) ISIS is the only terrorist organization in history that has ever attempted to establish a ‘caliphate,’ and the richest ‘hybrid’ terrorist group in the world. (3) A key to the success of counter-ISIS strategy hinges on how the US deals with the Assad regime, that has to be blamed for contributing to the emergence of ISIS for the most part. (4) The success of the US strategy is uncertain mainly due to the mismatch between the objective and the means, intelligence failure, complications surrounding the training of ‘moderate’ Syrian rebel groups, and the difficulty in securing the cooperation of disaffected Sunnis. (5) ISIS is likely to become one of the main issues in the US during the upcoming off-year election in 2014 and the next presidential election. Implications of the findings are as follows: (1) It should be noted that Russia and China are keeping a watchful eye on the manner in which the US proceeds with the ISIS targets inside Syrian territory. (2) The burden-sharing issue is likely to be raised, as the annual estimated cost of the operation exceeds ten billion dollars. (3) With due consideration to the fact that the country is not immune from terror threats, the ROK government needs to tighten the counter-terrorists measures and policies vis- -vis the vulnerable targets domestic and abroad. In sum, in the midst of the uncertainty in the viability of the US strategy to counter ISIS, the odds are that the anti-ISIS operations might continue over a lengthy period of time.