Recency Effect, Expert Judgement versus Public Opinion: the Case of the Masked Singer

손지호,손기형 대한경영학회 2024 大韓經營學會誌 Vol.37 No.2

Sequential presentations, such as job interviews, personnel decision-making, proposal selections, and competitions in fields like music, art, and sports, often introduce biases into performance evaluations. Among these biases is the serial position effect, characterized by two primary components: the primacy effect, which involves better recall of initial events, and the recency effect, which pertains to the enhanced recall of the most recent occurrences. Consequently, competitors of equal talent may receive unfair evaluations based solely on their position in the lineup. Using a substantial dataset (n = 1462) from performance assessments in the reality singing competition ‘Masked Singer,’ this study presents a persistent case of recency bias over an extended period. The odds significantly favor the second performer, with nearly three times higher winning chances than the first performer. This study also aims to address the long-standing inquiry into the comparative abilities of experts versus the general public in assessing the quality of cultural events. The findings unveil that both the Expert panel and the public (Audience) panel exhibit the recency effect. However, the Expert panel displays a lower sensitivity to the order effect, as the second performer’s winning ratio consistently remains lower compared to that under the Audience panel. The mean vote margin, representing the difference in votes earned by competitors, reveals intriguing insights. A significantly larger mean vote margin occurs when the second performer wins, suggesting a potential positional advantage or premium. Furthermore, regardless of the order of appearance, the mean vote margin is larger under the Expert panel than under the Audience panel. This suggests that the Expert panel tends to make more decisive decisions, possibly indicating greater confidence in their evaluations.

EMERGY 평가에 의한 부산광역시의 지속적인 발전가능성 평가

손지호,이석모 한국환경과학회 2000 한국환경과학회지 Vol.9 No.3

Sustainable development has been the key concept, both in economic policies and in environmental management since 1970s. In the view of systems ecology, sustainable resource use strategies are considered to be essential in achieving sustainable development. During the last three decades, the discipline of systems ecology has applied ecological energetic analysis to the evaluation of the contribution of natural environments to economic systems. EMERGY analysis of main energy flows driving the economy of humans and life support systems of a city was made including environmental energies, fuel, and inputs, all expressed as solar emjoules. Total EMERGY use of Pusan was 3.89 E22 sej/yr, about 90 percent of it was purchased sources from outside during eleven years from 1985 to 1995. EMERGY flows from the environment were less than 10 percent. EMERGY yield ratio and environmental loading ratio were 1.10 and 10.45, respectively. EMERGY sustainability index is therefore less than one, which is indicative of highly developed consumer oriented economies. Development of a city has been achieved in the short run by the economic growth, but it can be sustained in the long run by the use of renewable resource systems.

심발공법에 따른 발파진동 저감효과에 대한 수치해석적 연구

손지호,김병렬,이승중,김남수,이 효,최성웅 대한화약발파공학회 2019 화약발파 Vol.37 No.1

The repeated blasting vibration, which is induced commonly in NATM excavation site, can cause a severe damage to the nearby facilities. It is known that the most effective method for reducing blasting vibration includes the use of electronic detonator, deck charge and change of cut method, and so forth. In order to analyze the effect of blasting vibration reduction, in this study, three-dimensional FDM (Finite Difference Method) program FLAC3D has been used for reflecting the blasting hole, delayed time and charging amount. Also the numerical analysis has been performed by applying a dynamic load to each blasting hole. The cut method has been applied with several methods, such as V-cut and Double-drilled parallel cut, which are common in tunnel construction sites. Also, the field test blasting has been carried out in order to compare the measured data with results of numerical analysis. It was shown that the numerical analysis and the field measurement coincide well. 발파굴착을 수행하는 터널시공 현장에서, 발파진동이 반복적으로 작용할 경우 인근 보안물건에 손상을 입힐 수 있으며, 이러한 발파진동을 저감시킬 수 있는 방법으로는 전자뇌관의 사용, 분산장약, 심발공법의 변경 등이 고려될 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 수치해석 기법을 이용하여 심발공법에 따른 발파진동 저감효과를 분석하고자, 3차원 유한차분법 프로그램인 FLAC3D를 이용하여 발파공, 지연시차, 장약량 등을 수치모델에 반영하고, 발파공별로 동하중을 적용하여 수치해석을 수행하였다. 심발공법은 터널 시공현장에서 많이 사용되고 있는 V-cut 공법및 다단평행의 심발공법을 적용하였으며, 실제 터널 시공현장에서 시험발파를 수행하여 현장의 발파진동 계측자료와 수치해석의 진동속도를 비교하였다. 수치해석과 시험발파의 발파진동은 매우 유사한 경향을 나타낸 것으로분석되었다.

한국수산업의 EMERGY 분석

손지호(Ji Ho SOHN),신성교(Sung Kyo SHIN),조은일(Eun Il CHO),이석모(Suk Mo LEE) 한국수산과학회 1996 한국수산과학회지 Vol.29 No.5

Fisheries products have to be produced and maintained by work processes from the environment, sometimes helped by people. In Korean fisheries both environmental production and its economic use are included within the windows of system approach. EMERGY is the sum of all inputs expressed as one form of solar energy required directly and indirectly to make a product. Calculating EMERGY flows into Korean fisheries evaluates the real wealth contributed by environmental production and its economic use. Several indices calculated from EMERGY analysis table and a three-arm diagram give perspective on the type and efficiency of the environmental uses. Net EMERGY yield ratio is a measure of its net contribution to the economy beyond its own operation. For adjacent waters fisheries in Korea, the net contribution to the economy is 11.85 or higher, which is a stimulus to the economy that is able to purchase it. EMERGY investment ratio measures the intensity of the economic development and the loading of the environment. The ratio for Korean fisheries as a whole is 0.50, for the adjacent waters fisheries 0.09 and for the shallow-sea cultures 1.28, which is lower than the same index for the industry of the developed country (7.0). The component of environment drawn into production are large compared to purchased investment in Korean fisheries. Much more EMERGY is contained in fisheries products than in the paid services used to process the products. The EMERGY exchange ratio for Korean fisheries as a whole is 6.98, for the adjacent waters fisheries is 10.69 and for the shallow-sea cultures is 1.25. Using market values to evaluate wealth of environment resources is found to be many times too small. Money is paid only to people for their contribution, and never to the environment for its contribution. Macroeconomic value is the appropriate measure for discussing large-scale considerations of an economy, including environment and human goods & services.

선박 기자재 R&D 현황 및 발전방향

손지호(Ji-Ho Son),하영호(Young-Ho Ha) 한국마린엔지니어링학회 2005 한국마린엔지니어링학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2005 No.-

지역산업의 조선 관련 전략산업(부산 : 조선, 조선기자재 핵심기술, 경남 : 선박용 부품 및 기자재 기술, 울산 : 중소조선해양 기술)을 중심으로 산업클러스터를 활성화하기 위해서는 단기간에 글로벌 경쟁우위 확보가 가능성이 높은 핵심 기술개발과 구조 고도화 및 고부가가치화를 위한 핵심 복합 기술개발이 요구되며, 이러한 목표를 달성하기 위해서는 산업간의 협력체계 구축, 및 지원 정책의 활성화가 필요하다.

한국 수산업의 Emergy 분석

이석모,손지호 한국수산과학회 1994 추계학술발표회 Vol.- No.-

시스템 생태학적 접근법에 의한 한국의 지속적인 발전가능성 평가 (II) : 한국의 자연환경과 경제활동에 대한 미래예측 Simulating the Future of Korea`s Natural Environment and Economic Development

이석모,손지호,김진이 한국환경과학회 2001 한국환경과학회지 Vol.10 No.2

A macroeconomic minimodel was simulated to analyze the effect of global exchange on the Korea's economy. The simulation results illustrate some of the consequences of public policy and some insight into current world problems. All computer simulation runs made under various conditions suggest that the Korea's system in the near future may be strongly influenced by the favorable availability of outside resources, while the national power and assets may be declined by indigenous environmental stock depletion. The borrowed capital allows the temporary money stock to increase and the national assets to grow faster and a little higher, as using up the environmental resources more quickly. Later, when the debt is paid off, the foreign exchange holdings may not go so high. For the environmentally sound and sustainable development, over 75% of total economic production should be invested to the natural resource management. Therefore, the economic structure of Korea should be transferred from the present industrial structure to social-economic structure based on ecological-recycling concept.

낙동강 유역의 지속가능한 이용을 위한 EMERGY 분석

김진이,손지호,김영진,이석모 한국환경과학회 2000 한국환경과학회지 Vol.9 No.1

An EMERGY analysis of the main energy flows driving the economy of humans and life support systems consists of environmental energies, fuels, and imports, all expressed as solar emjoules. Total EMERGY use(720.0 E20 sej/yr) of the Nakdong River Basin is 96 per cent from imported sources, fuels and goods and services. EMERGY flows from the environment such as rain and geological uplift flux accounted for only 4 percent of total EMERGY use. Consequently, the ratio of outside investment to attracting natural resources was large, like other industrialized areas. EMERGY use per person in the Nakdong River Basin indicates a moderate EMERGY standard of living, even though the indigenous resources are very poor. Population of 6.66 million people in 1996 is already in excess of carrying capacity of the basin. Carrying capacity for steady state based on its renewable sources is only 0.226 million people. EMERGY yield ratio and environment loading ratio were 1.07 and 28.52, respectively. EMERGY sustainability index, a ratio of EMERGY yield ratio to environment loading ratio, is therefore less than one, which is indicative of highly developed consumer oriented economies. This study suggests that the economic structure of the Nakdong River Basin should be transformed from the present industrial structure to the social-economic structure based on an ecological-recycling concept for the sustainable use of the Nakdong River.

시스템 생태학적 접근법에 의한 한국의 지속적인 발전가능성 평가 (1) : 한국의 자연환경과 경제활동에 대한 EMERGY 평가 EMERGY Analysis of Korea's Natural Environment and Economic Activity

이석모,손지호,강대석 한국환경과학회 2000 한국환경과학회지 Vol.9 No.6

Sustainable development has been the key concept, both in economic policies and in environmental management. On the basis of an systems ecology perspective, this study suggests the sustainable development of Korea's natural environment and economic activity using the EMERGY evaluation. The total EMERGY use(7,730 E20sej/yr) in Korea is 81 percent from imported sources, fuels and goods and services. The ratio of outside investment to attracting natural resources is already large, like other industrialized countries. Continued availability of purchased inputs at a favorable balance of EMERGY trade, currently about 2.85 to 1 net EMERGY, is the basis for present economic activity and must decrease as the net EMERGY of purchased inputs including fossil fuels goes down. EMERGY yield ratio and environmental loading ratio were 1.23 and 20.30, respectively. The population level is already in excess of carrying capacity. Its carrying capacity for steady state on its renewable sources is only 2.2 million people, compared to 45.9 million in 1997. EMERGY sustainability index is therefore less than one, which is indicative of highly developed consumer oriented economies. Until now the development of a country has been achieved by the economic growth, but it can be sustained in the long run by the use of renewable resource systems, the efficiency of energy usage, and the transformation of the social-economic structure based on an ecological-recycling concept.

SCM 활용 패턴과 전략 유형 적합의 영향에 관한 연구

조남재,손지호 한국정보기술응용학회 2006 한국정보기술응용학회학술대회 Vol.2006 No.1

본 연구는 많은 기업들이 SCM의 중요성을 인식하고 도입하여 활용을 하고 있는 정보시스템의 발전 단계에서 공급사슬에 참여하고 있는 기업이 어떻게 SCM을 활용하고 있는지에 초점을 둔 연구라 할 수 있다. 기존 연구에서 도출한 SCM 활용 목적에 대한 설문 항목을 중심으로 기업이 활용하고 있는 SCM 활용 패턴을 도출하였다. 군집 분석 방법을 활용하여 집단에 특성을 배정하여 동일 집단에 속한 대상의 유사성을 갖게 함으로써 집단 간의 차이를 명확하게 하였다. 군집 분석 결과 효율성을 추구 형, 군집, Business process 정확성 추구형 집단과 환경 변화 대응 추구형 군집으로 패턴을 나눌 수 있었다. 응답 기업을 Miles와 Snow의 전략유형으로 분류하여 응답 기업의 전략 유형을 판별한 결과 분석자형 40.6%, 방어자형 15.1%, 공격자형 37.2%, 반응자형 6.9%로 조사되었다. 위에서 유형화한 SCM의 활용 패턴과 전략유형을 Matrix화하여 가설인 SCM 활용 패턴과 전략유형의 적합도와 SCM 성과 만족도와의 관계를 검증하였다. 연구를 수행한 결과 기업이 SCM을 활용할 때, SCM 활용 패턴 및 전략 유형에 따라 SCM 성과 만족도가 다르게 나타난다는 것을 알 수 가 있다.