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In this study, the regional climate (WRF) and air quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate the effects of future urban growth on surface ozone concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR). These analyses were performed based on changes in ozone concentrations during ozone seasons (May-June) for the year 2050 (future) relative to 2012 (present) by urban growth. The results were compared with the impacts of RCP scenarios on ozone concentrations in the SMR. The fractions of urban in the SMR (25.8 %) for the 2050 were much higher than those (13.9 %) for the 2012 and the future emissions (e.g., CO, NO, NO2, SO2, VOC) were increased from 121 % (NO) to 161.3 % (NO2) depending on emission material. The mean and daily maximum 1-h ozone in the SMR increased about 3 - 7 ppb by the effect the RCP scenarios. However, the effect of urban growth reduced the mean ozone by 3 ppb in the SMR and increased the daily maximum 1-h ozone by 2 - 5 ppb over the northeastern SMR and around the coastline. In particular, the ozone pollution days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard (100 ppb) were far more affected by urban growth than mean values. As a result, the average number of days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard increased up to 10 times.
정주희 ( Ju Hee Jeong ), 오인보 ( In Bo Oh ), 강윤희 ( Yoon Hee Kang ), 방진희 ( Jin Hee Bang ), 안혜연 ( Hye Yeon An ), 석현배 ( Hyeon Bae Seok ), 김유근 ( Yoo Keun Kim ), 홍지형 ( Ji Hyung Hong ), 김지영 ( Ji Young Kim ) 한국환경과학회 2016 한국환경과학회지 Vol.25 No.1
In order to improve the prediction of the regional air quality modeling in the Seoul metropolitan area, a sensitivity analysis using two PBL and microphysics (MP) options of the WRF model was performed during four seasons. The results from four sets of the simulation experiments (EXPs) showed that meteorological variables (especially wind field) were highly sensitive to the choice of PBL options (YSU or MYJ) and no significant differences were found depending on MP options (WDM6 or Morrison) regardless of specific time periods, i.e. day and night, during four seasons. Consequently, the EXPs being composed of YSU PBL option were identified to produce better results for meteorological elements (especially wind field) regardless of seasons. On the other hand, the accuracy of all simulations for summer and winter was somewhat lower than those for spring and autumn and the effect according to physics options was highly volatile by geographical characteristics of the observation site.