미분게임(Differential Games)과 전략적 의사결정

배영균 順天靑巖大學 2001 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.25 No.-

One of the primary tools that economists use to study strategic choices is formal game theory. This subject was originally developed during the 1920s and grew rapidly during World War Ⅱ. Today the theory has applicability to problems as diverse as the development of optimal strategies for five card stud poker to the analysis of antimissile defenses. Fundamentally, game theory modeling seeks to portray complex strategic situations in a highly simplified and stylized setting. Much like other models in the social sciences, game theory models abstract from most of the personal and institutional details of a problem in order to arrive at a representation of the situation that is mathematically tractable. The tools of game theory have relevance to many kinds of choices of strategy in uncertain situations. In this paper, some of the concepts associated with the modern theory of games are mentioned. Expecially, some examples of differential games are briefly introduced in a little bit rigorous way.

기업의 재무 건전성 예측

배영균,김인식 順天靑巖大學 2000 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.24 No.-

This Paper presents some empirical results of a study predicting corporate failure as evidenced by the event of bankruptcy. There have been a fair number of previous studies in this field of research; Beaver(1966), Altman(1968, 1973, 1976) and Ohlson(1980) etc., This study is similar to the Ohlson' study, in that the methodology is one of maximum likelihood estimation of the so called logit model. The financial data set used from KISFAS during 1992 to 1999. And the data is analized by a statistical package, SPSS. The major findings of the study can be summarized as follows. It was possible to identify four basic factors as being statistically significant in affecting the probability of failure within one year. These are : (i) TLTA, a measure of debt; (ii) NITA, a measure of earnnings; (iii) INTWO, a measure of net income; (iv) CHIN, a measure of net liquidity. The probabilistic model estimated is, P(Y_1=1 | Xi) = F(Xi, β_0) = 1 / (1+e^-xβ) = e^xβ / (1+e^xβ) Where, Xβ = -4.0581 - .0024 SIZE + 1.7574 TLTA + .3058 WCTA - .1386 CLCA + 1.1661 OENEG - .4834 NITA + .1649 FUTL + .4088 INTOW - .0017 CHIN P(Y_i=0 | Xi) = 1 - P(Y_i= | Xi) The model is relatively simple to apply and may be of use in practical applications. A potential disadvantage is that the model does not utilize any market transactions data of firms. One may expect that the predictive power of the model could be enhanced by incorporating such data as stock prices, βcoefficient and excess rate of return.

企業의 引受·合倂去來時 對象企業의 價値評價

배영균 順天靑巖大學 1997 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.21 No.2

Various methods can be used form computing a company's worth, but no set formula exists. It is obvious that valuation is subjective, depending on both what the business is worth to the buyer and on external influences such as economic outlook, company position, financial strength, and management. The most commonly used methods for evaluating the worth of businesses are Asset Valuation, Stock Price Valuation, Relative Price Valuation, and Discounted Cash Flow Method. In the Asset Valuation method, companies are evaluated by their assets. Assets are significant only as they enable a company to manufacture and sell products or services that generate profits. This profitability is reflected in book value, reproduction value, and liquidation value. The value of corporation whose stocks are actively traded on the major exchanges is determined continuously by the investing public. Quoted prices on stock exchanges, usually define the current worth of a company. Another widely used approach is to compare a private company's worth to a similar public corporation or group of corporations in the same industry. Though the above methods are helpful tools for valuation, the Discounted Cash Flow Method seems to be the most effective methods. Two steps are used in the Discounted Cash Flow Method. First, you estimate a company's future earning, based on both its past experience and future probabilities. Second, you discount these earnings at an expected discount rate. In this article, the most commonly used methods are studied and H Auto Co. Ltd. is evaluated by the most seemmingly effective method - Discounted Cash Flow Method.

게임理論과 戰略的 意思決定

배영균 順天靑巖大學 1998 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.22 No.1

With relatively few firms in a market, each firm must, to some extent, be concerned with what its rivals will do. Under perfect competition, however, such concerns are unnecessary because the prevailing market price conveys all the external information that is relevant to the firm. One of the primary tools that economists use to study strategic choices is formal game theory. This subject was originally developed during the 1920s and grew rapidly during World War II in response to the need to develop formal ways of thinking about military strategy. Today the theory has applicability to problems as diverse as the development of optimal strategies for five card stud poker to the analysis of antimissile defenses. Fundamentally, game theory modeling seeks to portray complex strategic situations in a highly simplified and stylized setting. Much like other models in the social sciences, game theory models abstract from most of the personal and institutional details of a problem in order to arrive at a representation of the situation that is mathematically tractable. In this paper some of the concepts associated with the modern theory of games are briefly introduced. The tools of game theory have relevance to many kinds of choices of strategy in uncertain situations. A few applications are mentioned in the last chapter. Using the game of chicken, the pricing behavior of gas stations is first examined. Then nuclear strategy and Star War program are examined. Finally, the output and price strategies of OPEC members - the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are investigated.

미분게임과 전략적 의사결정

배영균 한국세무회계학회 2001 세무회계연구 Vol.9 No.-

One of the primary tools that economists use to study strategic choices is formal game theory. This subject was originally developed during the 1920s and grew rapidly during World War Ⅱ. Today the theory has applicability to problems as diverse as the development of optimal strategies for five card stud poker to the analysis of antimissile defenses. Fundamentally, game theory modeling seeks to portray complex strategic situations in a highly simplified and stylized setting. Much like other models in the social sciences, game theory models abstract from most of the personal and institutional details of a problem in order to arrive at a representation of the situation that is mathematically tractable. The tools of game theory have relevance to many kinds of choices of strategy in uncertain situations. In this paper, some of the concepts associated with the modern theory of games are mentioned. Especially, some examples of differential games are briefly introduced in a little bit rigorous way.

Progressive Muscular Atrophy with Hypokalemic Periodic Paralysis: A Case Report

배영균,이재현,심영주,정호중,김기찬 대한근전도전기진단의학회 2021 대한근전도 전기진단의학회지 Vol.23 No.3

Progressive muscular atrophy (PMA) is a rare disease involving lower motor neuron degeneration. Hypokalemic periodic paralysis (HypoPP) is a genetic disorder that causes temporary muscle paralysis due to decreased serum potassium levels. Mutations in the CACNA1S gene cause HypoPP. An altered locus closely linked near the CACNA1S gene suggests the possibility of motor neuron degeneration. However, PMA with HypoPP is very rare worldwide because HypoPP usually causes progressive muscle weakness involving a form of myopathy without motor neuron disease. In this report, we describe the case of a 64-year-old man who initially complained of weakness in only the left lower extremity, which subsequently progressed bilaterally. Hence, the patient was diagnosed with PMA with HypoPP based on serial electromyography and the presence of a CACNA1S mutation. Therefore, serial electromyography is necessary for middle-aged patients with progressive muscle weakness and a history of HypoPP.

실업과 재정 금융정책

배영균 한국세무회계학회 1998 세무회계연구 Vol.5 No.1

The policy implications of combining rational expectations with the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis are reviewed The first part of the analysis specifies a simple model of the money growth process. The monetary policy feedback rule is estimated on U.S.A. data for the period 1959-1995 and the residuals from the regression serve as the unanticipated components of monetary policy while predicted values serve as expected monetary growth. An unemployment equation is then developed in which the unemployment rate is allowed to be influenced by expected and unexpected monetary policy and fiscal spending. The technique involves testing the influence of the predicted and stochastic components on unemployment, Over the study period, two annual lag values of unanticipated money growth turn out to have effects that are significantly negative on unemployment while anticipated money growth has no effect on unemployment. Further, the hypothesis that only the unanticipated part of money expansion influences unemployment receives strong support from the empirical tests.

지방화시대의 지역경제발전 이론과 정책

배영균,김인식 順天靑巖大學 2001 論文集-順天靑巖大學 Vol.25 No.-

주택공급의 가격탄력성과 주택가격 변동성

배영균(Bae, Young-Kyun) 대한부동산학회 2012 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.30 No.1

주택수요가 변화할 때 주택공급의 탄력성은 주택가격수준과 주택가격의 변동성에 영향을 준다. 같은 크기의 수요 충격일지라도 공급이 탄력적이면 가격파동이 상대적으로 적다. 본 연구에서는 주택공급의 가격탄력성 추정을 위하여 먼저 신규주택허가량을 이번기와 전기의 주택가격 변화분 및 건축비용 변화분의 함수로 가정하고 주택공급함수를 추정하였으며 또한, Malpezzi & Maclennan(2001)에 의하여 정립된 저량조정모형을 추정하였다. 추정결과 수도권 주택공급의 가격탄력성은 0.3으로서 가격변화에 대하여 대체적으로 비탄력적이었으나, 지방 5대도시의 탄력성은 3.6으로서 수도권지역에 비하여 훨씬 탄력적인 것으로 나타났다. 일반적으로 공급의 가격탄력성이 낮을수록 주택가격의 변동성은 더 커지는 경향을 보인다. Since one of the possible reasons for the difference of regional dynamic properties of prices is the supply-side, regional housing supply functions are estimated and the price elasticities of regional house supply are compared. In the stock adjustment model, a market equilibrium equation is first estimated by using quarterly data. The results suggest that the sample regression line fits the data very well and all variables in the equation have the expected signs and are statistically significant at least at the 10% level. The second-stage of analysis uses the estimates of the equilibrium prices from the first-stage. The empirical results show that the price elasticity of the housing supply in five local large cities is 3.6 which is far more than the price elasticity of the capital areas, which is 0.3.

로짓모형과 오차수정모형을 이용한 아파트가격 상승확률 예측

배영균(Bae, Young Kyun) 대한부동산학회 2015 大韓不動産學會誌 Vol.33 No.2

This paper predicts the probability of apartment price increase in Seoul by using a Logit & Error Correction Model. In order to analyze the Error Correction Model, market equilibrium prices are estimated by using a reduced-form equation arising from the equilibrium condition of demand and supply. The results suggest that the estimated market equilibrium prices equation fits the data very well and variables in the equation are statistically significant at the 1% level. For analyzing the short-run dynamic features of apartment prices, the Error Correction Model is built and estimated. The Error Correction Model uses the estimates of the market equilibrium prices from the first-stage. The empirical results show that apartment prices exhibit a strong serial correlation, 0.355 and the rate of mean reversion is 0.251. Those independent variables in the Error Correction Model are, then, used for independent variables in the Logit model to predict the probability of price increase. Dependent variable(Y) in the Logit Model is apartment price changes. If the price increse, the value of Y is 1 and if decrease, Y is 0.