지능형 시뮬레이션 모형을 기반으로 한 정보기술 투자 성과 요인 및 전략 도출에 관한 연구

박도형(Do-Hyung Park) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2013 지능정보연구 Vol.19 No.1

최근 기업 경영에 있어 정보기술의 도입 및 전략적인 활용은 선택이 아닌 필수로 자리잡고 있다. 기업의 전략적인 목표와 정보기술 간의 상호 의존은 기업의 생존 및 성장에 중요한 역할을 하고 있으며, 이에 따라 이미 많은 기업이 지속적으로 정보기술에 투자하고 있다. 정보기술 투자 성과 관련해서는 기업 내부의 요인들과 전략들, 기업외부의 고객까지 여러 가지 복합적인 요소들이 서로 상호작용하고 있기 때문에, 각 요인들을 독립적으로 분리하여 정보기술 투자 성과에 미치는 영향력을 분석하는 것이 쉽지 않다. 이에 본 연구는 기존의 연구들을 바탕으로 정보기술 투자성과에 영향을 줄 수 있는 변수들을 도출하여, 각 변수들의 관계를 수리적인 모델링을 통해 단순화시키고, 시뮬레이션 방법론을 이용하여 각 변수들의 변화에 정보기술 투자 성과는 어떻게 달라지는지를 밝혔다. 본 연구의 결과는 정보기술 투자는 서비스의 품질을 증가시켜 경제학적인 성과들에 간접적으로 영향을 주고, 정보기술 투자와 동시에 소비자 잉여는 증가되지만, 큰 투자비용으로 회사의 이익은 감소하게 된다. 그리고 시간이 지남에 따라 품질 증가에 관한 정보가 고객들 사이에 퍼져 나가게 되므로 최종적으로 기업의 수익을 증가시켜준다. 또한, 정보기술 투자 성과 극대화를 위해서는 회사가 제공하는 서비스와 소비자들의 네트워크 효과 등이 고려되어 정보기술 투자 여부를 결정하고, 회사에 맞는 정보기술 투자 전략을 세워야 함을 시뮬레이션 모형을 통해 확인할 수 있었다. 구체적으로, 한 번에 많은 투자를 할 경우는 단기적인 성과는 클 것으로 기대되나, 장기적으로 좋은 성과가 이뤄지지 않는다. 그러나 정보의 확산 속도가 빠르거나 정보의 장벽이 될 수 있는 정보를 받지 못하는 소비자가 적을 경우 단기에 집중 투자 하는 것이 많은 수요를 얻을 수 있다. 또, 여러 번에 걸쳐 투자하는 경우는 적당한 주기를 가지게 될 경우 장기적으로 큰 성과를 낼 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 경제학 모델링과 시뮬레이션을 결합시켜, 각각의 한계를 모두 극복할 수 있는 방법론을 활용했다는 측면과, 정보기술 투자의 성과를 제품 품질의 매개 효과 모형에 적용하여 정보기술 투자와 기업 성과간의 관계를 보여주었다는 측면, 마지막으로 정보기술 투자 전략 및 정보의 확산 효과를 반영하여 정보기술 투자의 성과를 확인할 수 있다는 측면에서 의의가 있다. Information technology is a critical resource necessary for any company hoping to support and realize its strategic goals, which contribute to growth promotion and sustainable development. The selection of information technology and its strategic use are imperative for the enhanced performance of every aspect of company management, leading a wide range of companies to have invested continuously in information technology. Despite researchers managers, and policy makers’ keen interest in how information technology contributes to organizational performance, there is uncertainty and debate about the result of information technology investment. In other words, researchers and managers cannot easily identify the independent factors that can impact the investment performance of information technology. This is mainly owing to the fact that many factors, ranging from the internal components of a company, strategies, and external customers, are interconnected with the investment performance of information technology. Using an agent-based simulation technique, this research extracts factors expected to affect investment performance on information technology, simplifies the analyses of their relationship with economic modeling, and examines the performance dependent on changes in the factors. In terms of economic modeling, I expand the model that highlights the way in which product quality moderates the relationship between information technology investments and economic performance (Thatcher and Pingry, 2004) by considering the cost of information technology investment and the demand creation resulting from product quality enhancement. For quality-enhancement and its consequences for demand creation, I apply the concept of information quality and decision-maker quality (Raghunathan, 1999). This concept implies that the investment on information technology improves the quality of information, which, in turn, improves decision quality and performance, thus enhancing the level of product or service quality. Additionally, I consider the effect of word of mouth among consumers, which creates new demand for a product or service through the information diffusion effect. This demand creation is analyzed with an agent-based simulation model that is widely used for network analyses. Results show that the investment on information technology enhances the quality of a company’s product or service, which indirectly affects the economic performance of that company, particularly with regard to factors such as consumer surplus, company profit, and company productivity. Specifically, when a company makes its initial investment in information technology, the resultant increase in the quality of a company’s product or service immediately has a positive effect on consumer surplus, but the investment cost has a negative effect on company productivity and profit. As time goes by, the enhancement of the quality of that company’s product or service creates new consumer demand through the information diffusion effect. Finally, the new demand positively affect the company’s profit and productivity. In terms of the investment strategy for information technology, this study’s results also reveal that the selection of information technology needs to be based on analysis of service and the network effect of customers, and demonstrate that information technology implementation should fit into the company’s business strategy. Specifically, if a company seeks the short-term enhancement of company performance, it needs to have a one-shot strategy(making a large investment at one time). On the other hand, if a company seeks a long-term sustainable profit structure, it needs to have a split strategy(making several small investment at different times). The findings from this study make several contributions to the literature. In terms of methodology, the study integrates both economic modeling and simulation technique in order to overcome the limitations of each methodology

고객 관점의 UX 품질 평가 및 제품개선 방향 도출 프로세스: 휴대폰 카메라 경험을 중심으로

박도형 ( Do Hyung Park ) (주)엘지씨엔에스(구 LGCNS 엔트루정보기술연구소) 2013 Entrue Journal of Information Technology Vol.12 No.1

기업에 있어 고객 기반의 UX 품질 관리는 고객 중심의 제품 개발 및 고객의 지속적인 사용과 만족을 위해 중요하다. 기업은 고객에게 우수한 품질을 제공하기 위해, 고객의 잠재니즈를 발굴하고 기대수준을 도출하여 품질의 기준 강화와 성능의 향상을 위해 노력하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 국내 전자회사 A의 휴대폰 사례를 통해 고객이 제품을 사용하면서 지각하고 인지하는 제품에 대한 품질 평가인 고객 관점의 UX 품질 평가의 프로세스를 제시하였다. 제품의 사용 주체인 고객의 목소리로 시작하여, 기술 속성 간 매핑을 통해 고객 가치 요인을 도출한 후, 고객이 실제 제품을 사용하는 환경에서 고객 가치 요인에 따른 제품 평가를 수행한다. 고객 평가 값에 대한 요인 분석과 회귀 분석을 통하여 각 고객 가치 요인의 고객 만족도에의 영향력 비중을 산출하고, 이 결과를 전략 매트릭스 상에 포지셔닝 하여 사분면별로 차별화된 전략을 제시하였다. 이와 같이 기업이 고객의 지각된 UX 품질을 정확히 이해하여 품질 영역별로 최적화된 전략을 적용한다면, 고객이 가장 원하는 부문의 품질을 먼저 개선할 수 있고, 고객 만족을 극대화할 수뿐만 아니라, 중요 품질 요소에 대한 집중 투자를 할 수 있어 기술개발 투자의 효율성을 향상시킬 것으로 기대된다. Consumer-based UX quality management is important for companies as it enables them to develop products fit to their consumer needs, to encourage continuous use of their products and to manage consumer satisfaction. In order to provide products with higher quality, companies identify consumer needs and expectations for their products and strive to improve quality control for better products. This study suggests the process of UX quality evaluation based on consumer needs and ap-plies it to a case study focusing on mobile phone camera experience in Company A, one of the Korean electronics companies. It identifies consumer value factors from voice of consumer and then performs consumer product test in an environment si-mulating consumers` real experience of a product and contents. Based on the obtained consumer evaluation, it conducts factor analysis and regression analysis to derive impact of each consumer value factor on consumer satisfaction. By positioning the results on a strategy map, it suggested differentiated strategies. For a practical use, companies can analyze their consumers` perceived UX quality and apply differentiated strategies for each product. Given the successful implementation, they can pri-oritize the quality improvement on a product based on consumer needs, maximize consumer satisfaction and increase the effi-ciency of their investment on technologies by focusing on critical quality attributes.

온라인 커뮤니티 이용자의 잠복 관찰(Lurking) 행위 의도에 관한 연구

박도형(Park, Do-Hyung) 경희사이버대학교 미래고등교육연구소 2012 사이버사회문화 Vol.3 No.2

기존 연구의 대부분은 온라인 커뮤니티의 이용 의도에 관한 연구인데, 대부분의 연구는 이용 의도를 커뮤니티 사용 의도로 접근하였다. 하지만 커뮤니티에 참여하여 글을 쓰고 구성원간의 상호작용 없이, 단순히 커뮤니티를 방문하고, 다른 사람들의 글만 보고 정보를 얻어가는 행위(Lurking)는 온라인 커뮤니티의 발전을 저해할 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 Preece, Nonnecke와 Andrews(2004)의 탐색적 연구를 바탕으로 온라인 커뮤니티에서 사람들이 잠복 관찰(Lurking) 하려는 행위 의도를 갖는 이유에 대해 알아보고자 한다. 기존의 온라인 커뮤니티 연구와 온라인 환경에서의 이용자 행위를 바라본 연구들을 기초로 온라인 커뮤니티의 구성원들의 행위에 영향을 줄 수 있는 요인들을 확인하고, 각 요인들이 온라인 커뮤니티내 글을 쓰는 의도와 글을 읽는 의도에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 분석하였다. 이를 통해 잠복관찰자(Lurker)들이 잠복 관찰(Lurking) 행위를 전략적으로 하려는 욕구에는 무엇이 있으며, 이런 욕구의 해결을 잠복 관찰(Lurking)이 아닌 다른 방향을 통해 해결할 수 있는 전략적 대안을 제시하였다. Online communities is getting more popular with the development of information technology. It is essential that community members participate actively and share their contents or opinions continuously for the success and growth of online communities. However, it is revealed that most of members just take the role of passive observer. They are lurking community information and contents without any contribution. In this sense, this study focuses on explore lurking behavior of online community members. Based on technology acceptance model, this study investigates the effect of two distinctive motivations(intrinsic and extrinsic motivation) on the intention for posting and reading. Finally, this study proposes several strategies to enhance information and contents sharing in online communities.

딥러닝 기반 영상 정합 기술의 연구 동향

송대영(Dae-Young Song),이희경(Heekyung Lee),엄기문(Gi-Mun Um),서정일(Jeongil Seo),조동현(Donghyeon Cho) 대한전자공학회 2021 대한전자공학회 학술대회 Vol.2021 No.11

여행자 관심 기반 스마트 여행 수요 예측 모형 개발: 웹검색 트래픽 정보를 중심으로

박도형 ( Park Do-hyung ) 한국정보시스템학회 2017 情報시스템硏究 Vol.26 No.3

Purpose Recently, there has been an increase in attempts to analyze social phenomena, consumption trends, and consumption behavior through a vast amount of customer data such as web search traffic information and social buzz information in various fields such as flu prediction and real estate price prediction. Internet portal service providers such as google and naver are disclosing web search traffic information of online users as services such as google trends and naver trends. Academic and industry are paying attention to research on information search behavior and utilization of online users based on the web search traffic information. Although there are many studies predicting social phenomena, consumption trends, political polls, etc. based on web search traffic information, it is hard to find the research to explain and predict tourism demand and establish tourism policy using it. In this study, we try to use web search traffic information to explain the tourism demand for major cities in Gangwon-do, the representative tourist area in Korea, and to develop a nowcasting model for the demand. Design/methodology/approach In the first step, the literature review on travel demand and web search traffic was conducted in parallel in two directions. In the second stage, we conducted a qualitative research to confirm the information retrieval behavior of the traveler. In the next step, we extracted the representative tourist cities of Gangwon-do and confirmed which keywords were used for the search. In the fourth step, we collected tourist demand data to be used as a dependent variable and collected web search traffic information of each keyword to be used as an independent variable. In the fifth step, we set up a time series benchmark model, and added the web search traffic information to this model to confirm whether the prediction model improved. In the last stage, we analyze the prediction models that are finally selected as optimal and confirm whether the influence of the keywords on the prediction of travel demand. Findings This study has developed a tourism demand forecasting model of Gangwon-do, a representative tourist destination in Korea, by expanding and applying web search traffic information to tourism demand forecasting. We compared the existing time series model with the benchmarking model and confirmed the superiority of the proposed model. In addition, this study also confirms that web search traffic information has a positive correlation with travel demand and precedes it by one or two months, thereby asserting its suitability as a prediction model. Furthermore, by deriving search keywords that have a significant effect on tourism demand forecast for each city, representative characteristics of each region can be selected.

심리적 거리로서의 가상성과 시간적 거리: 제품 정보 유형의 제품 태도에 미치는 효과를 중심으로

박도형 ( Do-hyung Park ) 한국지식경영학회 2017 지식경영연구 Vol.18 No.3

Recent advances in technology are evolving to enable individuals to perform various activities necessary for their lives, without being constrained by physical, temporal, and spatial constraints. The online services and experiences that originated from solving the discomfort in the actual offline space have created the newness that can only be experienced in the digital world and furthermore uniquely new experiences in actual space as well. While many previous studies have suggested several interpretations of unique individual behaviors in virtual environments, a recent research approaches virtuality as an interesting perspective of the change of thinking style. Virtuality is defined as how far apart we are from everyday reality, and if the individual faces a situation far from reality, the psychological distance of the individual becomes distant and ultimately leads to the thinking style of high construal level. Otherwise, it is said to have a relatively low construal level of thinking style. In this study, I try to confirm the virtual distance as the role of psychological distance in new virtual contexts. Simultaneously considering temporal distance, which are most used in psychological distance, and virtual distance based on virtuality, this study tries to find whether the effect of virtual distance on product attitude is the same as that of temporal distance and check the relationship between virtual distance and temporal distance in the context of consumers’ product evaluations depending on product information type.

인발법 및 직접압출법을 이용한 유리섬유 강화복합재의 관한 연구

박도형(Do Hyung Park),정현석(Hyun Seok Jung),나규동(Gyu Dong Na),김민기(Min Ki Kim),김기영(Ki-Young Kim) 한국자동차공학회 2019 한국자동차공학회 부문종합 학술대회 Vol.2019 No.5

심리적 거리로서의 가상성 : 가상성에 따른 광고메시지 전략

박도형,Park, Do-Hyung 한국데이터전략학회 2017 Journal of information technology applications & m Vol.24 No.2

At present, various technologies are rapidly advancing, centering on the concept of virtuality. From the technology of virtual reality, which allows us to experience the senses as if they existed, to the technology of augmented reality, which provides new information or services based on reality, they are no longer strange things for ourselves because we experience them every day and night. Even though the concept of virtual is very familiar in terms of technology, it is not known how individuals accept the concept of virtuality, how they change our way of thinking, and how their behavior changes. This study aims to approach virtuality perceived by the individual from the viewpoint of individual's information processing. Virtuality is defined as the degree to which the situation facing an individual is far from actual reality. An individual can judge the degree of virtuality easily, which is considered to be a psychological distance which is an important factor in personal information processing. In this study, we have confirmed whether the argument is applied to the real world in the context of advertisement. According to the construal level theory, when an individual feels virtuality at a high level, the individual thinks that the situation they are facing is psychologically distant and accordingly has a high level construal. Therefore, it is more influenced by 'advertisement emphasizing symbolic appeal' which is matching with higher level. On the other hand, when an individual feels a low level of virtuality, the individual thinks that the situation they are facing is psychologically near and thus has a low level construal. Therefore, respondents are more sensitive to functional appeal, which is related to lower level. This study has the theoretical contribution in terms that the degree of virtuality affects the psychological distance of the individual. In addition, the results of this study have practical contribution in terms of being able to be actively used in the information delivery strategy centered on the advertisement.

복합재료 로터 블레이드 단면 모델링 프로그램 개발

도형수(Hyung Soo Do),조진연(Jin Yeon Cho),박일주(Il-Ju Park),정성남(Sung Nam Jung),김태주(Tae Joo Kim),김도형(Do-Hyung Kim) 한국항공우주학회 2011 韓國航空宇宙學會誌 Vol.39 No.3

복합재료 로터 블레이드는 각종 보강재와 더불어 적층된 형태로 구성되어 있어 그 단면 구조가 매우 복잡하고, 이로 인해 모델링에 어려움이 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 효율적인 로터 블레이드 단면 모델링을 위해 집합 연산에 기반 한 2차원 모델링 알고리듬을 활용하여 그래픽 사용자 환경을 갖춘 프로그램 KSec2D를 구현하였다. 구현된 프로그램을 이용하여 복잡한 로터 블레이드 단면 형상 모델링을 수행하고 이를 통해 복합재료 로터 블레이드 모델링 시 개발된 프로그램의 유용성을 확인하였다. Generally, modeling procedure of cross section of composite rotor blade is complicated and time-consuming, because it is made up of various stiffeners and multiple layers of composite materials. For efficient modeling of cross section of composite rotor blade, a modeling program so called KSec2D, which provides a user friendly GUI, is developed by using a 2D modeling algorithm based on set operation. By the developed program KSec2D, a modeling of complicated cross section of rotor blade is carried out. Through the demonstration, the usefulness of developed program in modeling procedure of cross section of composite rotor blade is verified.

자기조직화 지도를 활용한 성장모형 기반의 시장 성장패턴 지도 구축

박도형(Do-Hyung Park),정재권(Jaekwon Chung),정여진(Yeo Jin Chung),이동원(Dongwon Lee) 한국지능정보시스템학회 2014 지능정보연구 Vol.20 No.4

시장 예측은 일정 기간 동안 소비자에게 판매되는 동종 제품 또는 서비스의 수량 혹은 매출액의 규모를 추정하는 활동으로 정의할 수 있다. 정확한 시장 예측은 기업의 입장에서 새로운 제품의 도입시기 결정, 제품 설계, 생산계획 수립, 마케팅 전략 수립 등에 활용됨으로써 경영활동에 있어 효율적인 의사결정을 내릴 수 있게 하고, 정부의 입장에서는 발전 가능성이 있는 분야에 국가예산을 더 배분할 수 있는 효율적인 예산수립이 가능하게 한다. 본 연구는 정보통신기술(Information and Communication Technology: ICT) 분야의 제품 및 서비스에 대해서 과거의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 시장 성장곡선을 도출하고, 성장패턴이 비슷한 그룹으로 분류하여, 산업 내 시장에 대해 이해하고, 제품들의 미래 전망을 예측하는 데 목적이 있다. 다양한 아이템들을 통일되고 일관적인 방법으로 예측하기 위하여, 로지스틱 모형, 곰페르츠 모형, Bass 모형의 세 가지 전통적인 성장모형과 로지스틱 모형이나 곰페르츠 모형에서 도출되는 잠재시장 크기를 Bass 모형에 결합시킨 두 가지 하이브리드 성장모형을 개발하여 비교 분석하였다. 데이터 설명력이 우수한 로지스틱 + Bass 모형을 최적의 모형으로 선정하여 ICT 제품 및 서비스들 각각의 시장 성장곡선 모수를 확인하였다. 도출된 모수를 데이터로 하여, 자기조직화 지도 알고리즘을 통해, 5개의 의미 있는 영역으로 구분된 시장 성장패턴 지도가 구축되었는데, 각 영역별로 차별화된 특징과 성장패턴을 가지고 있었다. 본 연구에서 제안한 프로세스 및 시스템은 산업 시장 분석 시스템의 수요 예측 기능으로 활용될 수 있으며, ICT 산업뿐만 아니라 다양한 산업 및 분야에도 적용 가능할 것으로 기대된다. Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models’ predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an N X N map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.