http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
이종환 ( Jong Hwan Lee ),남준우 ( Joon Woo Nahm ) 한국금융학회 2009 금융연구 Vol.23 No.4
신용카드 산업이 발전하여 신용카드사별 경쟁이 심화됨에 따라 전체 고객을 대상으로 하는 카드마케팅의 반응율이 현저히 떨어지게 되어 카드사의 입장에서 캠페인을 시행할 때 고객에게 캠페인의 내용을 알리는데 드는 비용이 큰 부담으로 다가왔다. 고객과의 접촉비용을 줄이는 방안으로 해당 캠페인에 실제 반응할 확률이 높은 고객을 선별하는 다양한 시도가 증가하였다. 이러한 시도는 기존의 로짓, 프로빗 등 모수적 추정방법에 의한 모형 구축과 새롭게 대두된 것이 신경망 모형 및 스코어카드 모형이다. 본 논문에서는 로짓, 프로빗, 신경망 모형, 스코어카드 모형 중 RMSE와 ADD-Logit 모형 등 5개 모형의 MAD(Mean Average Difference), RMSE(Root Mean Square Errors), 로그 최우도값(Log Likelihood), 적중율(Rate of Correct Prediction), 비용편익 등의 비교를 통해 가장 효율적인 모형을 찾아보고자 한다. 또한 반응율을 높이기 위해 자주 사용되는 오퍼들의 한계 효용대체율을 구하여 최적 오퍼를 찾아낼 수 있는 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 추정 결과 개발용 표본에서는 신경망 모형이, 검증용 표본에서는 로짓과 프로빗 모형이 비교적 우수하였다. 한계효용 대체율은 모수적 방법은 동일한 프로파일인 경우 하나의 값이 산출되는데 반해, 신경망 모형은 동일한 프로파일에서도 다양한 값이 산출되어 고객별 최적 오퍼에 대한 다양한 시도가 가능할 것으로 보이나, 실제 검증은 모형에서 산출된 값에 기초한 마케팅을 시행하여야 할 것이다. AAs credit card industry in Korea is expanding and competition among credit card companies grows up, reaction rate of mass marketing quickly decreases and rate of cost of advertising campaign to customer increases. Many companies are interested in decreasing the cost and try to build reaction prediction models. They often use logit, probit as parametric estimation model, and neural network, scorecard model as non parametric estimation model. In this paper, as we set up the individual utility as function of credit card characteristics, total limit, IS interest rate, CS interest rate, marketing offer vector and customers` profile vector, we are finding the optimal offer of credit card. To find optimal model, we compare several models, logit, probit as parametric model and neural network, scorecard model as noon parametric model. Furthermore, to find optimal offer to customer, we calculate marginal rate of substitution between two offers which are usually used. Neural network model use linear function as combination function, hyperbolic tangent as activation function, three hidden layers and back propagation network as error correction. Estimation result, directions of coefficients of five models are alike and important input variables are marketing offer, using amount of IS, male`s total limit, IS using customer`s CS and IS interest rate. In training sample, neural network model is the best at MAD, RMSE, Log Likelihood, Rate of Correct Prediction and Cost Benefit Analysis. But in validation sample, parametric models (logit, probit) are better than others. Because of neural network model`s over fitting problem, it`s performance decreases more in validated sample than in training sample compared to other models. In terms of MRS, customers with same profile have same MRS in parametric models, but different MRS in neural network model. We found weak evidences that neural network model is most efficient in terms of calculating MRS. To improve this study, we need accumulation of panel data of marketing activities; the same marketing performed to the same customer several times with a lag. Furthermore, the real characteristics of credit card inside of customer`s wallet is available, the prediction rate of the model would be improved. Survey data would be good candidate.
남준우 서강대학교 경제연구소 2003 시장경제연구 Vol.32 No.1
This paper focuses to analyze the financial constraints and the business group internal capital market using panel data model Our research is to find out whether firm's investment depends on internal cash flow If the investment is sensitive to cash flow, then we suppose firms have the liquidity constraint caused by capital market imperfection like information asymmetry, agency problem, etc. With sample data of 1999-2001, we found the firm faces the financial constraints, however, there are no internal capital
연립방정식모형을 이용한 기업부도위험과 부채구조의 실증분석
남준우,안정환 서강대학교 경제연구소 2001 시장경제연구 Vol.30 No.1
This paper analyzes the relation between corporate debt ratio and bankruptcy in a simultaneous equation model. Empirical results show that there is a strong feedback effect between corporate debt ratio and bankruptcy risk. Therefore, in prediction of corporate bankruptcy, the simultaneous equation model considering such a feedback effect is more desirable to get consistent estimators than the single equation model. The empirical results support that because the performance of large business group affects to individual corporation, not only individual corporate information but also large business group's financial ratio should be considered to increase the power of prediction of its bankruptcy risk.
초월 대수함수를 통하여 본 연구개발투자의 가격에 대한 장기효과 분석
남준우 서강대학교 경제연구소 2000 시장경제연구 Vol.29 No.2
This paper estimates the effect of R&D investment to individual commodity prices using Korean manufacturing industry data. First, the translog variable cost function is employed to investigate how technological innovation due to R&D investment affects the variable cost. Second, assuming the constant elasticity pricing formula, the shift of cost function changes the individual commodity prices. The results show that the direct effect of R&D investment on the price level is insignificant. However, the indirect effect of R&D investment on price decrease through monopolization due to technical innovation is significant.