북한정권의 위기관리 능력과 북한 변화 전망

김태효 한국전략문제연구소 1998 전략연구 Vol.5 No.1

Studies on North Korea's change in the future maybe focused on three different levels of change: power elite, system, and state. This study aims to predict how North Korea will change in the future based on the evaluation of crisis management capability by North Korean power elites. North Korea has faced two kinds of crises: domestic and international crises. Challenge against governmental legitimacy, economic crisis, growing private self-regulation, and agitation among reform-oriented elites are the representative examples of domestic crises. North Korea also suffers from crises caused by external developments: North Korea has been pushed into the corner by the collapse of its socialist allies and the spread of democracy and market economy: North Korean leaders are afraid if their people are influenced by incoming information from the outside. Under Kim Il Sung's leadership, however, North Korea was able to break though major crises those caused by the raid on the Blue House (1968), the seizure of the Puebulo (1968), and the murder of American soldiers at the Panmunjom(1976). What enabled North Korea's successful management of these crises were its forceful theocracy and the existence of bipolar system. North Korean leaders correctly understood that neither the Soviet Union nor the United States could easily attack the other side because it would escalate into a major war involving massive nuclear attack. Thus, the Soviet Union and China as formidable allies of North Korea during the Cold War served as effective leverages for North Korea's intimidation against South Korea and the United States, North Korea also knew when it had to appease the U.S. to avoid possible retaliation. However. the situation has changed due to the end of the Cold War and the death of the Kim 11 Sung. and North Korea now has to find a new strategy to overcome current crises. Lack of charisma compared to his father, Kim Jong 11 heavily depends on military authority for ruling the country. After applying brinkmanship diplomacy for a few years in negotiating with the U.S. on nuclear crisis, North Korean policymakers are currently trying to get closer to the United States which they had branded as ringleader of imperialism. That is. North Korea attempts to gain economic benefits as much as possible from western countries mainly from the U.S. and to ensure its security by obtaining America's promise not to attack first. Future development of the North Korean situation depends on the leadership of the North Korean regime. North Korea will desperately try to keep its regime alive adopting a few economic reforms: for example, it has designated a few cities and is inviting foreign investment. Kim Jong Il regime will also attempt to take advantage of America's soft-landing policy for getting economic and political support from concerned countries. However. it is doubtful how long these measures will work for North Korea. North North has no choice but to open its economy to sustain its system and the taste of capitalism will gradually change the public's viewpoint against their government, even into a hostile one. At the point when the North Korean regime is no more economically able to compensate its elite group, even they might turn their back against the Kim Jong Il leadership. It is highly likely that North Korea's crisis management will fail not due to outside shock but due to gradual and slow resistance from the inside.

슬리트형 레이저 광투영법을 이용한 3차원 형상계측

김태효 慶南大學校 附設 工業技術硏究所 1998 硏究論文集 Vol.15 No.2

본 논문에서는 슬리트형 레이저 투광기를 3차원 물체에 투영하여 화상처리에 의한 물체의 위치 및 자세를 계측하고 3차원 형상을 복원하였다. 고정밀 화상을 취득하기 위해 2048개의 화소를 가진 성형 CCD와 회전거울 장착한 고정밀 카메라를 사용하였다. Calibration에서 4개의 기준점을 설정하고 이의 실제 치수를 잰 후 2차원의 카메라좌표에 사상(mapping)하였으며, 카메라의 35㎜ 렌즈에 대한 오차특성을 조사하였다. 대상 물체의 계측에서 취득된 2차원의 선화상(line image)을 화상처리를 이용하여 데이터의 잡음을 제거하고 불연속 라인을 연결한 후, 2 차원 선화상들을 조합하여 3차원 형상화상을 얻었다. 여기서 세로방향의 분해능을 0.5㎜로 실현하였다. In this paper, we measured the 3-D position and orientation of a given object and reconstructed its 3-D shape using the slit type of laser projector and some image processing algorithms. In order to acquire high precision image, we used the camera which has liner CCD device composed of 2048 cells and rotating mirror. We first set 4 reference points and established their real lengths among them, then mapped their object coordinates into the camera coordinates, finally measured the error of camera lens(35㎜) in calibration. In practical object measurement, we removed some noises and connected the discontinuities of the line images using some image processing, then obtained the 3-D shape image that the 2-D line images are juxtaposed in order. The 3-D shape image has a resolution of 0.5㎜(vertical direction).

급성 신손상 환자에서 나트륨 분획 배설의 측정 시기와 중장기 임상적 예후 간의 관계

김태효,최현수,박성수,이재광,류현식,민동규 대한응급의학회 2021 대한응급의학회지 Vol.32 No.3

Objective: Rapid identification of the cause for acute kidney injury (AKI) is very crucial. Among the diagnostic indicators of AKI, the fractional excretion rate of sodium (FENa) is clinically considered the most useful indicator. Numerous studies have reported that rapid identification and treatment of AKI improves the short-term clinical prognosis of AKI patients. However, insufficient studies have reported on the benefits of early assessment of FENa to help improve the mid-long term clinical prognosis of AKI patients. Methods: We analyzed the timing of FENa in AKI patients who were admitted through our hospital emergency department, over a period of 3 years. The experimental groups are divided into the early group, measuring FENa within 3 hours after arrival in the emergency room, and the late group, measuring FENa later than 3 hours after arrival in the emergency room. The prognostic outcomes determined are major adverse kidney events (MAKE), including new dialysis, deterioration of kidney function to chronic kidney disease (CKD), and death, as well as MAKE and AKI recurrence (MAKER). Results: Significant differences were obtained between the early group and late group in time taken to start fluid resuscitation (P=0.001), intermittent hemodialysis (P=0.005), and continuous renal replacement therapy (P=0.016), as well as in the mid-long term clinical prognosis of new dialysis (P=0.018) and deterioration of kidney function to CKD (P=0.004). Differences between early group and late group in MAKE (P<0.001) and MAKER (P<0.001) were also statistically significant. In the mid-long term clinical prognosis of death (P=0.706) and AKI recurrence (P=0.466), no significant differences were obtained between the two groups. Conclusion: Early measurement of FENa (within 3 hours) for AKI patients visiting the emergency room showed better mid-long term clinical prognosis than patients with delayed FENa measurement.

Fluorinated Analogues of a Practical Polymer TQ for Enhanced Open-Circuit Voltages in Polymer Solar Cells

김태효,Gitish K. Dutta,최효성,이정훈,양창덕,김진영 한국고분자학회 2014 한국고분자학회 학술대회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.2014 No.4

Graphene-based Catalyst for Enhancing Oxygen Reduction Reaction of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell

김태효 한국공업화학회 2021 한국공업화학회 연구논문 초록집 Vol.2021 No.-

중국 대외정책기조에 담긴 논리의 이중구조:목표와 현실성 사이의 괴리

김태효,KIM Tae-Hyo 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2014 신아세아 Vol.21 No.4

한·중 1.5트랙 전략대화는 깊이 있고도 자유분방한 토론을 달성할 수 있다는 점에서 활용하기에 따라 매우 유용한 외교적 수단이다. 본 글은 최근 이루어진 한·중 전략대화의 주요쟁점을 분석하면서 중국 지도부가 표방하는 대외정책의 목표와 실제 현실성 사이에 괴리가 존재함을 보여주고자 한다. 중국이 추진하는 중국 중심의 신(新)아시아질서는 이웃 국가들의 호응과 자발적인 동참 없이는 성사되기 힘들다는 점에서 중국 대외정책의 성패는 미국의 대응보다는 중국 스스로의 능력에 달려 있다고 할 수 있다. 또한 중국이 이제까지 취해 온 북한의 후견인 역할은 한반도와 동북아시아 질 서의 현상유지라는 목표에서 기인한 것이지만, 이러한 입장이 앞으로도 지속될 경우 향후 글로벌 책임국가를 표방하는 중국의 국제적 평판과 역할에 중대한 저해요인이 될 것이다. 중국 지도부는 현재 자신이 하고 있는 말과 앞으로 해야 할 행동 사이에서 혼란스러워하고 있다. 그래서 아무리 똑똑한 중국의 지도자라도 한국 사람들을 상대로 민감한 주제에 관한 자유토론 이 벌어질 때 논리적으로 앞뒤가 맞지 않는 주장을 펴는 경우가 종종 있다. 앞으로 한·중 전략대 화를 질적으로 격상시켜 나감으로써 한·중관계의 발전뿐만 아니라 중국의 보다 건설적인 국제적 역할을 독려할 수 있을 것이다. 그리고 그것은 한·중 양국이 ‘북한’ 변수를 함께 극복하고 해소 해 낼 때 한층 현실화될 것이다. For Korea and China, the Track 1.5 Strategic Dialogue is a very useful diplomatic tool because this format can produce an atmosphere in which in-depth and candid discussions occur. Analyzing major debates at recent Track 1.5 Strategic Dialogues in Beijing and Shanghai, this essay shows that there is a gap between the PRC’s foreign policy goals and its practice. A China-centered new Asian order cannot be realized without neighboring countries’ positive response and their voluntary participation. In other words, the success of the PRC’s New Silk Road and Silk Road initiatives depends not on the U.S. response but China’s ability to sell those slogans. China’s protection of North Korea reflects its strategic goal of maintaining the status quo on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia, but continuation of this policy will damage China’s international reputation and its image as a responsible country. China’s leadership is torn between its current rhetoric and how it will have to behave in the future. For that reason, Chinese strategists often raise illogical arguments when engaged with Koreans in discussions of sensitive security issues. Upgrading the quality of the Korea-China Strategic Dialogue will encourage China to take more constructive international roles as well as advance bilateral relations between Korea and China. Those effects will be reinforced if Korea and China can overcome and resolve the North Korean problem.

한일관계 민주동맹으로 거듭나기

김태효 (사) 한국전략문제연구소 2006 전략연구 Vol.- No.37

Future Korea-Japan Relations : In Search of a'Democratic Alliance.' Many observers consider cooperation between Korea and Japan to be inevitable as a result of their shared military and economic interests. Democracy and market economy are regarded as 'grounding norms' for the two countries' foreign policy. However, recent disputes between the two countries on history-related issues, including sovereignty over Dokdo islets, Japan's treatment of history in middle school textbooks, and Prime Minister Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, cast dark clouds over Korea-Japan relations. The Korean people's strong discontent over history-related issues is easily boosted by nationalism, which can do great damage to Korea-Japan relations. By examining key issues within the Korea-Japan relationship across security, economic, and socio-cultural aspects, the author shows that social norms concerning history and nationalism produce mistrust and hostility between the two countries. Moreover, different priorities and policy choices over the alliance with the U.S., policy toward China, and engagement with North Korea, make it difficult for Korea and Japan to maintain coherent and steady security collaboration. The paper argues that the global and regional security environment calls for more close and future-oriented cooperation between Korea and Japan and that liberal norms (on democracy and market-oriented economy) should take precedence over the hostility that has been generated in Korea-Japan relations.

기계화를 이용한 양송이 재배기술 사례

김태효 한국버섯학회 2014 버섯 Vol.18 No.1

한일관계 민주동맹(Democratic Alliance)으로 거듭나기

김태효 한국전략문제연구소 2005 한국전략문제연구소 연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

일본의 對한반도 정책 : 한반도 통일문제를 중심으로

김태효 關東大學校 東北亞平和硏究所 2000 東北亞硏究論叢 Vol.5 No.1