인구구조의 변화가 가계부채 상황취약성에 미치는 효과

김지섭 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2018 동서연구 Vol.30 No.4

This paper empirically examines impacts of changes in population structure on household debt repayment vulnerability by using the 2006 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the 2015 Household Finances and Living Conditions. I consider a counter-factual 2006 household debt and asset distribution where only the household age distribution follows the distribution of 2015, while other household -specific characteristics remain in line with 2006 distribution. I then compare the counter-factual household debt and asset distribution with the actual distribution. Over the last decade, household asset and debt held by Korean seniors have significantly increased, as population aging progresses. However, the growth in household debt has exceeded that of household asset, thus exacerbating senior households' debt repayment burden. The average amount of household debt held by each age group has increased during the same period. This is driven by the increase in the average household debt conditional on holding debt, rather than the increase in the proportion of households holding debt. In turn, the cross-sectional variability of household debt has increased over the last decade. 본 논문은 인구구조의 변화가 연령별 가계부채 상환취약성에 미치는 효과를 2006년 가계자산조사와 2015년 가계금융⋅복지조사를 이용하여 실증적으로 분석한다. 연령별 가계부채 및 자산보유액은 2006년의 값을 가지지만 인구구조는 2015년의 분포를 따르는 가상의 분포를 고려한다. 그리고 가상의 연령별 가계부채 및 자산분포와 실제 2015년의 분포를 비교한다. 고령화로 인한 인구구조의 변화는 동 기간 동안 우리나라 중⋅고령층이 보유한 가계부채 및 자산비중의 확대로 이어졌다. 그러나 이들 연령층은 가계자산보다 상대적으로 더 많은 가계부채를 보유함으로써 가계부채의 상환부담이 증가하였다. 한편, 동 기간 동안 모든 연령대에 걸쳐 보유하고 있는 평균 부채액이 증가하였다. 이는 부채를 보유하고 있는 가구의 수가 증가하기 보다는 부채를 보유한 가구의 평균 부채액이 증가했기 때문이다. 결국 가구별 가계부채의 분산은 지난 10여 년 사이 확대되었음을 확인할 수 있다.

Changes in Demographic, Social, and Economic Structure in North Korea and Policy Direction for Improving Residential Environment

김지섭 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2021 Global economic review Vol.50 No.2

This paper analyses structural changes in demographic, social, and economic conditions in North Korea and draws policy implications on housing supply and residential environment. Demographic and social structures in North Korea, such as population aging, low fertility rate, and increases in nuclear families, are changing, just as many developed countries have experienced. At the same time, there is a high demand for house and infrastructure redevelopment. Meanwhile, there are significant differences in household wealth, living infrastructure, and family compositions across North Korean provinces. Hence, policymakers in North Korea must take into account such regional heterogeneities when they consider the house supply and residential improvement policies.

감속기 변형모델을 이용한 휴머노이드 보행 안정성 개선

김지섭,김민곤,박재흥 제어로봇시스템학회 2016 제어로봇시스템학회 국내학술대회 논문집 Vol.2016 No.3

원자력 발전의 현황 및 장래

김지섭 대한전기협회 1979 대한전기협회지 Vol.- No.30

위성 마이크로파 편광보정자료 PCT89를 이용한 강수/비강수 분류 알고리즘의 불확실성 분석

김지섭,신동빈 한국기상학회 2018 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2018 No.10

혼합된 비구형 얼음 입자 분포를 적용한 수동형 마이크로파 복사 산란 모의

김지섭,신동빈,최지수,김동혁 한국기상학회 2022 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2022 No.10

PREDICTION AND MINIMIZATION OF MICRO DEFORMATION ON THE AUTOMOBILE HOOD AFTER DIPPING PROCESS

김지섭,박성훈,김낙수,허남건,오창석 한국자동차공학회 2015 International journal of automotive technology Vol.16 No.2

During automobile dipping process, surface defects such as very small or micro deformation occurs intermittently on the assembled hood. The main cause of the surface defect is the location of hood supporting stay, structure of hood and pressure distribution resulted from fluid behavior in a paint pool. In order to minimize the defect, it is necessary to understand and predict the stiffness of the assembled hood as well as the fluid flow behavior in the paint pool, and the effects of locations of stays which are used in dipping process. This study has analyzed and simulated the micro deformation which occurs during dipping process. The difference between the measured and the computed stiffness of an assembled hood could be minimized by applying an equivalent material in the numerical model of assembled hood. It was found that the sequential application of fluid pressure to the hood structure in a painting pool was indispensable to obtain accuracy in the computation. By comparing the amounts of deformation which are measured in the actual process line with those of computation, the validity of the technique of computational fluid dynamics and technique of structural analysis have been confirmed. The optimal location of supporting stays to reduce the surface defects was given quantitatively with the coordinates.

An atypical case of Noonan syndrome with KRAS mutation diagnosed by targeted exome sequencing

김지섭,조성윤,양아람,장자현,최영빈,이지은,진동규 대한소아내분비학회 2017 Annals of Pediatirc Endocrinology & Metabolism Vol.22 No.3

Noonan syndrome (NS) is a genetic disorder caused by autosomal dominant inheritance and is characterized by a distinctive facial appearance, short stature, chest deformity, and congenital heart disease. In individuals with NS, germline mutations have been identified in several genes involved in the RAS/mitogenactivated protein kinase signal transduction pathway. Because of its clinical and genetic heterogeneity, the conventional diagnostic protocol with Sanger sequencing requires a multistep approach. Therefore, molecular genetic diagnosis using targeted exome sequencing (TES) is considered a less expensive and faster method, particularly for patients who do not fulfill the clinical diagnostic criteria of NS. In this case, the patient showed short stature, dysmorphic facial features suggestive of NS, feeding intolerance, cryptorchidism, and intellectual disability in early childhood. At the age of 16, the patient still showed extreme short stature with delayed puberty and characteristic facial features suggestive of NS. Although the patient had no cardiac problems or chest wall deformities, which are commonly present in NS and are major concerns for patients and clinicians, the patient showed several other characteristic clinical features of NS. Considering the possibility of a genetic disorder, including NS, a molecular genetic study with TES was performed. With TES analysis, we detected a pathogenic variant of c.458A > T in KRAS in this patient with atypical NS phenotype and provided appropriate clinical management and genetic counseling. The application of TES enables accurate molecular diagnosis of patients with nonspecific or atypical features in genetic diseases with several responsible genes, such as NS.

A.Giddens의 구조화이론 구축에 있어서의 베버적 요소

金至燮 慶一大學校 1996 論文集 Vol.13 No.1

Structuration theory which attempts to transcend the dichotomies of the voluntarism and determinism, the subject and object, and the synchronic and diachronic through the conception of the duality of structure, is a new perspective, recently spelt-out by Anthony Giddens. The perspective, which unified and amalgamated the existing social theories selectively, regards the relation of agency-structure as that of interdependence, and tries to explain the principle of operation in agency-structure as a whole. But it is evident that in constructing the basic components of structuration theory, A. Giddens owed too much to M. Weber's sociology. Particularly it has often been pointed out that Weber had effects on Giddens' constructing of conceptions of agency or agent. It is well-known that Weber's sociology is founded on the interpretation of diverse motivations of actors. Because of this fundamental standpoint, the concept of Weber's interpretation(Verstehen) has been discussed exclusively in terms of epistemological status, and his methodological individualism has been stressed distinctively, and the conception of his subjective meaning has been regarded only as standing in opposition to all structural considerations. According to this tendency, Weber's analysis of agency-structure relation has been treated lightly. Patterning of action-orientations is the central conception of his analysis of agency-structure relation. Through the operating principle of patterning of action-orientations, Weber made a structural explanation plainly. After all, his structural explanation is about the influence of agency on structure and on the contrary, the structural constraint on agency. This paper concerns on the extent to which Weber influenced on the conceptions of agency or agent, and the duality of structure in structuration theory. On the one hand, it argues that Weber's causal interpretation is the approach to the interrelation of agency-structure.

대출계약구조가 부채차입 및 상환 취약성에 미치는 효과

김지섭 한국국제금융학회 2015 국제금융연구 Vol.5 No.2

I quantitatively analyze how debt contract structure affects household borrowing and repayment decisions. In addition, I examine household repayment and default responses when it faces an unexpected drop in average income. My quantitative exercises show that debt contract structures, bullet- or amortization-type contract, do not affect steady-state household debt or repayment vulnerability. However, households are more likely to default on their loans from an unexpected drop in average income when they take out loans through the bullet-type contract rather than the amortization-type contract. This result supports Korean government’s recent efforts to change the debt contract structure from bullet-type to long-term amortization type contracts which reduces potential non-repayment risk from an unexpected drop in average household income. 본 논문은 대출계약구조가 가계의 부채차입 결정에 미치는 효과를 동태적 균형모형을 통해 분석한다. 아울러, 평균소득이 하락하는 스트레스 상황에서 대출구조의 차이가 가계부채의 상환 취약성에 미치는 효과를 분석한다. 정상상태에서는 거치식⋅일시상환 방식의 대출구조와 비거치식⋅분할상환 방식의 대출 간에 가계부채의 총량 및 상환 취약성의 차이가 크게 없다. 하지만 소득이 하락하는 스트레스 상황 하에서는 거치식⋅일시상환 방식의 대출이 비거치식⋅분할상환 대출보다 상대적으로 채무 불이행이 높게 나타난다. 따라서 거치식⋅일시상환 대출비중이 높은 우리나라는 대출계약구조를 사전적으로 개선함으로써 향후 잠재적인 경기 하방 충격에 대비를 해야 할 필요가 있다.