Secular Stagnation - The US and Korean Economies -

김덕민 호남대학교 인문사회과학연구소 2023 인문사회과학연구 Vol.66 No.3

This paper discusses the technical patterns behind the discussion of secular stagnation in the US economy since 2000. The measure of TFP growth we use is a single weighted average of capital and labor productivity growth. This allows us to see the long-run changes in each productivity growth that affect TFP growth. We also use the Korean economy as a catch-up economy to see if the technical patterns of the US economy are repeated in the Korean economy. In terms of TFP growth, the 1970s is the worst period for both countries. TFP growth picks up after the 1980s in the US economy and after 1997 in the Korean economy. However, a technical pattern similar to the 1970s reappears after the 2000s in the US economy and after the 2010s in the Korean economy.

역사는 반복된다. 모두 비극으로

김덕민 문화과학사 2013 문화과학 Vol.- No.73

자본축적의 상태국면모형과 VAR 그랜저 인과성 분석: 한국경제의 경우

김덕민 경상대학교 사회과학연구원 2019 마르크스주의 연구 Vol.16 No.2

This article examines the relationship between the rate of profit and capital accumulation for the South Korean economy. The local-linear-trend state-space model is composed of two components: unobservable and irregular. The unobservable component is further subdivided into a stochastic trend and an economic variable. We estimate the model using the Kalman filter algorithm. The VAR Granger Causality analysis helps to reveal the relationship between the trend and the movement of the rates of profit and utilization. The changes in profitability and utilization rate are positively associated with a change in the economic variable derived from the state-space model. Through this process, we can derive an heterodox investment function for the South Korean economy. 이 연구는 특히, 비주류 경제학(포스트케인스주의/마르크스주의)에 널리 알려진자본축적률과 이윤율 간의 관계를 경험적으로 확인하려는 하나의 시도이다. 시계열에 대한 단순한 관찰을 통해 이 관계를 명확하게 판별하기 어려우므로, 우리는 상태국면모형을 통해 비관측요인을 도출한 이후 이 비관측요인과 수익성 및 가동률 간의 관계를 연결시켰다. 이러한 관계를 좀 더 명확하게 규정짓기 위해 VAR 그랜저인과성 검정을 통해 관계의 성립 유무를 확인했다. 최종적으로는 두 분석 과정을연결시켜 거시적 투자함수를 도출했다.

시스템 다이내믹스에 기초한 비선형 경제성장 모형

김덕민 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2018 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.19 No.1

This paper aims to build a nonlinear dynamic model of economic growth using system dynamics. The model in this study is an application of Goodwin’s model in 1990, but the level dimension of the model in 1990 is transformed into a the-rate-of-change dimension in this study. The model is constructed using system dynamics elements: the stock-flow structures, multiple feedback mechanisms, and time delays. The model successfully implemented the reconstruction of persistent and unpredictable movements of variables on the dimension of the rate of change. This study suggests another perspective regarding the concept of equilibrium besides the traditional point of view that mainly described in the comparative statics. Complex movements of the variables can be generated in a simple deterministic system. Therefore, the stability of a model has to be discussed based on a whole system, which can be evaluated only in the interrelationship of multiple feedback loops with time delays.

희토류 추출공정 잔사 및 수처리 슬러지의 안정화/고형화 평가

김덕민,고명수,박미선,박미정,지원현,김승섭,이상환 한국자원공학회 2017 한국자원공학회지 Vol.54 No.2

For residue and water treatment sludge from extraction process of rare earth elements in China, addition of stabilizing/solidifying agents was evaluated by Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP). Coal mine drainage sludge mixed at 10% ratio removed 76% and 67% of As and Se, respectively, from the sludge. Ferrous sulfate mixed at 2% ratio removed 99% of Ba. Bone char mixed at 10% ratio removed 82%, 86% and 92% of Be, Ba and Pb, respectively, possibly because of its micro-structure. Be, Pb, and Th were reduced to <0.08 mg/L at a cement amendment ratio of 10%. As and Se decreased by 98.0~99.9% and 54.7~98.6%, respectively, after amendment of cement at mixing ratios of ≥ 20%, suggesting formation of Ca-As and Ca-Se complex. However, Se increased at pH>10.5, indicating increase of mobility. 중국 희토류 추출잔사 및 수처리 슬러지를 대상으로 안정화/고형화제의 적용성을 TCLP(Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure)로 평가하였다. 희토류 슬러지에 광산배수 슬러지 10% 혼합시 As 76%, Se 67%가저감되었으며 Ba은 FeSO4 2% 혼합시 99%까지 저감되었다. Biochar는 10% 처리시 Be, Ba, Pb을 각각 82%, 86%, 92% 저감하였으며, 이는 발달된 미세구조의 영향으로 판단된다. 잔사의 시멘트 10% 처리 결과 Be, Pb, Th이 0.08 mg/L 이하로 저감되었다. As 및 Se은 시멘트 20% 이상 처리시 각각 98.0~99.9%, 54.7~98.6%만큼 저감되어 Ca-As 및 Ca-Se 화합물을 생성한 것으로 추정된다. 그러나 Se은 약 10.5 이상의 pH 조건에서 이동성이 증가하는 것으로 확인되었다.

Income-led Growth and Wage Inequality in the Korean Economy (1980-2013): A VAR /VECM Approach

김덕민 호남대학교 인문사회과학연구소 2019 인문사회과학연구 Vol.62 No.1

In this paper, I test the relationship between economic growth and income distribution in the Korean economy. In recent years, a widening gap between wage-earners and income distribution has become an important issue in the Korean economy. Thus, the VAR/VEC framework, which takes account of the historical pattern of wage inequality in Korea, is used to investigate a complicated effect of income distribution on economic growth in recent decades. In this paper, I identify the cointegrating vectors to establish the long-term relationship between the variables and the use of the impulse responses of each variable for investigating the short-term effects of each exogenous shock using the VAR approach. This study suggests that the income-led growth perspective will not inspire research about the Korean economy if the income-led growth perspective should not be enough to account for Korea’s wage inequality.

마르크스 경제학의 현재와 미래: 어소시에이션과 참여계획경제를 중심으로

김덕민 경상대학교 사회과학연구원 2020 마르크스주의 연구 Vol.17 No.3

This paper is a book review on Seong-Jin Jeong's new book, the 21th century Marxist economics. Seong-Jin Jeong is one of the representative Marxist scholar in S. Korea. In his new book, Jeong carefully considers Marx's concept of Associations and the achievements of the participatory economics as an alternative to the modern capitalist economy. This paper critically discusses these main themes of the book. 정성진은 자신의 최근 저서 『21세기 마르크스 경제학』(2020, 산지니)에서 마르크스 저작 전반에 나타나고 있는 어소시에이션 개념을 현실 사회주의 모순을 극복하고 미래 대안적 사회를 건설할 수 있는 마르크스의 주요 개념으로 검토한다. 또한, 참여계획경제와 관련된 논의들을 정리하고, 참여계획경제에 대한 구상이 마르크스의 어소시에이션과 더불어 미래 사회의 대안을 구성하는 데 필수적임을 역설한다. 이 논문에서 『21세기 마르크스 경제학』에서 정성진이 논의하고 있는 어소시에이션과 참여계획경제에 대한 내용을 비판적으로 검토하면서, 마르크스 경제학에 기초한미래 사회에 대한 더 건설적인 논의에 기여하려고 한다.

시스템 다이내믹스와 새케인즈주의 모형

김덕민 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2019 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.20 No.4

This article explores the dynamic characteristics of the basic new Keynesian model which is widely used in lots of the central banks in each country and educated for the advanced macroeconomics at the graduate level in economics. System dynamics can give help to reveal the dynamic states of the basic model. In this article, the particular assumptions or determination with regard to the basic model such as jump variables and determinacy or indeterminacy of the model, which make lots of students and nonspecialists difficult to understand the model, can be easily found by help of the computer-aided simulation of system dynamics and some further related studies.

새로운 마르크스읽기, 오래된 마르크스읽기 『생각하는 마르크스』 서평

김덕민 경상대학교 사회과학연구원 2018 마르크스주의 연구 Vol.15 No.1

This article is a critical reading of Professor Baek Seung-wook’s new book, How Marx? It attempts to generalize Marxian theory to the theory of sociality, suggesting a new interpretation of the former. However, compared to Jacques Bidet’s “Theory of Modernity”, we can find that the Pr. Baek’s new reading contains some deficiencies. There seem to be some problems in the design and organization of concepts. Nevertheless, it should be evaluated as a new attempt to read Marx. 중앙대 백승욱 교수의 『생각하는 마르크스』는 마르크스의 저작들에 대한 재해석을 통해 마르크스 이론의 사회성 이론과의 통합을 시도한다. 이러한 시도는 완전히새로운 것은 아닌데, 프랑스의 에티엔 발리바르나 자크 비데와 같은 철학자들, 그리고 한국의 윤소영 교수에 의해 소개되고 시도된 바 있다. 이 논문에서는 주로 자크비데의 ‘현대성 이론’과의 비교를 통해 『생각하는 마르크스』의 시도가 갖는 의의와결함을 짚어보았다. 『생각하는 마르크스』가 던지고 있는 마르크스 이론의 사회이론의 일반화 작업은 경제적 구조와 이데올로기적 구조의 결합을 시도하지만, 여전히여러 한계를 노출하고 있으며, 오히려 이런 시도를 통해 마르크스 이론의 자본주의생산양식 분석과 계급이론으로서의 지위를 탈각시키는 효과가 존재한다. 그럼에도불구하고 이러한 새로운 시도는 마르크스에 대한 관심을 환기시키기에 충분한 것으로 보인다.

메타버스 캐릭터 속성과 퍼스널 스페이스 현황과 효과 분석

김덕민,석현선,정형원,Kim, Deok Min,Seok, Hyeonseon,Jeong, Hyung Won 조선대학교 기초과학연구원 2021 조선자연과학논문집 Vol.14 No.3

Personal space is an invisible space around people and plays an important role in human communication. Individual spaces are known to change according to gender and relationships in communication between people. This study examines whether such personal space exists between characters on a metabus. Gender participants took up short personal space, and female participants found that on the Metabus, they changed their personal space according to their intimacy or gender with other people's characters rather than their own. Male participants are thought to change their personal space according to their personality in case of reason in Metabus. From this, it is thought that the participant continues to have physicality, just as the meta-bus actually has a body. Female participants found that in Metabuses, as in the real world, gender between characters has a similar short personal space, rather than gender, and intimacy between characters. In the case of male participants, it was shown that the closeness between the characters was similar to that of the personal space, but the gender of other characters did not change the personal space. Future validation of personal space for metabus characters requires comparison of shapes of individual spaces and cultures, such as individual characteristics, such as introduction and extroversion of individual space, and experiments of gender. In this experiment, the number of female experiment participants is strongly required in future experiments, as compared with male experiment participants, and the need for various cultural experiments is also required.