On the Likelihood of Peace and War on the Korean Peninsula: A Causal Loop Analysis

김강훈 ( Gang Hoon Kim ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2009 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.10 No.4

Since the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War, many scholars and policymakers have expressed concern about the possibility of another conflict on the peninsula. In certain respects, the post-1953 North-South Korea relationship resembles the Cold War that existed between the United States and the Soviet Union, 1945-1990. Although a “hot” never occurred, peace was never guaranteed. By looking at international theories (i.e., realism and liberal theory) and by utilizing casual-loop diagram analysis, the main purpose of this research is to explore on the likelihood of peace and war on the Korean peninsula. First, several factors (e.g., economic stagnation of North Korea, unstable political systems, and so on) emphasized by realism perspectives are significantly related to the likelihood of conflict between North and South Korea. Conversely, several determinants (e.g., economic assistance to North Korea, inter-dialogue between two Koreas, cultural and social exchange, and so on) emphasized by liberal approaches are significantly related to likelihood of peace on the Korean peninsula. Given the two different interpretations about the likelihood of conflict or peace, it can be argued that a second military action might occur on the Korean peninsula if realism theories are true. However, if practical factors exist on the Korean peninsula, the two Korean can optimistically expect a peaceful reunification in the future, without interference from other countries.

새만금사업의 지속가능한 발전방안 연구: 전라북도 지자체를 중심으로

김강훈 ( Gang Hoon Kim ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2010 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.11 No.4

The Korean government has operated various mega-development projects in order to help nation progress into the future. However, many problems and concerns have been raised on the mega-projects` delay and failure in South Korea. Moreover, there are many technical and executive problems; such as trial and error of development work, failure of validity test, complicated decision-making processes, and so on. With these concerns and problems to mega-development projects, finding a sustainable development from mega-projects is becoming a new issue in the field of mega-development projects. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate whether or not most mega-development projects conducted by the government exactly corresponds with sustainable development (such as environmental soundness, economic efficiency and social equity) focusing on Saemangeum project. Using causal loop analysis, this study gives some significant results to us. First, for environmental soundness, both central and local government should ensure water-purity control system for farming, industry, leisure, and others. Second, for economic efficiency, both governments not only have to secure a budget for completion of infrastructure of the Saemangeum project but also support financial assistance to Saemangeum project. Third, for social equity, three local governments i.e., Gunsan, Gimje, and Buan) should stop debate and conflict with regard to an administrative district of Saemangeum region. Finally, most politicians should not use Saemangeum project for political means. Rather, they should recognize the project as a motive power for economic development of Jeollabukdo.

한국에서 일반국민들이 진정으로 원하는 대안적 민주주의: 스텔스 민주주의에 대한 신념

김강훈 ( Gang Hoon Kim ) 비교민주주의연구센터(비교민주주의학회) 2010 비교민주주의연구 Vol.6 No.2

많은 정치학자들은 한국은 아시아에서 민주주의로 성공한 대표적인 국가라고 주장한다. 하지만, 많은 연구들에서 지적하듯이 일반국민들은 그들의 민주주의 체제뿐만 아니라 정부와 정치인들에 대해 불신과 불만을 가지고 있다고 한다. 과연 일반국민들이 실질적으로 정부, 정치인, 그리고 민주적 과정에 대해 불만을 갖고 있는가? 만약 민주주의 형태에 불만을 가지고 있다면 과연 일반국민들이 선호하는 대안적 민주주의 형태가 무엇인가? 이러한 문제를 연구하고자 전국 599명을 대상으로 설문을 실시했다. 실증적 연구결과는 우리들에게 중요한 정보를 제공했다. 첫 번째, 대다수의 많은 국민들은 정부, 정치인, 그리고 그들의 민주주의를 불신하면서 만족하지 않았다. 두 번째, 대다수의 많은 국민들은 정치과정에 참여하기를 꺼려한다. 대신, 그들은 스텔스 민주주의를 선호했다. 마지막으로, 대의민주주의 과정을 거부하면서, 많은 국민들은 정부와 정치인들에 대해 불만족과 불신이 깊어질 때 참여민주주와 스텔스 민주주의를 동시에 선호한다. Many scholars have argued that South Korea has been one of the most successful democracies in Asia. But, ordinary people in South Korea often complain about the current operation of their government and sometimes express dissatisfaction and discontent with government, politicians, and their democratic process. Regarding this concern, this study explores whether ordinary Koreans are really dissatisfied with the government, politicians and their democratic process. Furthermore, this study examines whether the people really would prefer to be deeply involved in political processes or would prefer different type of democracy that they do not need to pay attention to politics. To examine these concerns, I conducted nation wide survey, containing a large random sample (n=599) gathered in South Korea. Empirical findings give us important information. First, a large majority of ordinary citizens in South Korea dissatisfied with the government, politicians, and their democratic system. Second, most of people do not want to be involved in political processes. Rather, they have a preference for a stealth democracy. Finally, in rejecting the representative process fully, this empirical evidence clearly represents that the Korean people tend to support either participatory or stealth democratic processes when they are dissatisfied with government and politicians.

한국사회의 우울증과 자살예방을 위한 동태분석 연구: 청소년층을 중심으로

김정기 ( Kim Jung-ki ),박상만 ( Park Sang-mahn ),김강훈 ( Kim Gang-hoon ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2017 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.18 No.1

The purpose of this study is to examine the risk factors directly affecting the suicide of the adolescent and to point out the limitation of existing protection factors. We also seek ways to reduce risk factors and strengthen protection factors. The summary and implications of this study are briefly described as follows. Previous studies have shown that suicide risk factors of the adolescent are largely divided into individual factors, family factors, school factors, social factors respectively. And, most studies have found the answer to suicide risk factors as a protective factor for the prevention of adolescent suicide. However, the previous studies looking at the protection factors are too abstract and tried to find the answer in a one - way relationship between the factors. Therefore, in this study, we provide a comprehensive understanding through the dynamic analysis of the occurrence process of the adolescent suicide in order to prevent the suicide of the adolescent. In particular, it provide a new causal relationship and solution for the prevention of suicide prevention through the application and expansion of psychology, policy, and science and technology. In summary, first, psychological stability of the adolescent is allowed to be brought through the use of positive psychological capital. Second, the establishment of infrastructure to prevent suicide by using science and technology will provide another opportunity to prevent suicide of the adolescent. Third, the establishment of suicide prevention system using science and technology can overcome the limit of budget and manpower. In addition, through objective data analysis and data sharing, we will be able to provide more efficient and effective policy formulation and improvement of relevant laws and institutions.

긍정적 심리자본(Positive Psychological Capital)과 사회적 통합 : 이명박 정부의 친서민정책을 중심으로

김정기(Kim Jung-Ki),박상만(Park Sang-Mahn),김강훈(Kim Gang-Hoon) 한국정치정보학회 2011 정치정보연구 Vol.14 No.1

본 연구의 목적은 국민 개개인이 긍정적 사고를 형성할 수 있고, 이를 바탕으로 사회적 통합을 유도하는 새로운 자본이라 할 수 있는 긍정적 심리자본(Positive Psychological Capital)을 소개하고, 이를 이명박 정부의 친서민정책에 적용시켜 현 정부가 강조하는 국민들과의 원만한 소통과 국민들의 긍정적 자세를 함양할 수 있는 새로운 방법을 모색하고자 하였다. 본 연구를 통해서 도출된 시사점으로 첫째, 정부가 국민들 개개인이 도전적인 과업의 성공을 위해 필요한 노력을 취하고 쏟아 부을 수 있는 자신감을 갖게 할 때, 둘째, 국민들 한사람 한 사람이 현재와 미래의 성공에 대한 긍정적인 낙관주의를 만들어 갈 때, 셋째, 국민들 개개인이 목표를 향해 인내하고 필요한 순간에는 성공하기 위해 목표(희망)에 대한 경로를 재설정할 수 있는 환경을 조성해 줄 때, 그리고 마지막으로 국민들 개개인이 성공을 위해 어떤 문제나 역경에 직면했을 때 이를 참고 견디며 난관이나 좌절로부터 원래의 상태로 되돌아오거나 그것을 뛰어넘는 회복력을 조성해 줄때 국민들은 긍정적 사고가 형성되고 이로 인해 사회적 통합이 가능하다. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce PsyCap(Positive Psychological Capital) helping ordinary people to create positive thinking and leading to social integration in South Korea. Additionally, by applying PsyCap to Lee Myung-bak government’s pro-ordinary people policy, this study is to seek new approach which Lee’s government is able to communicate with the people and can help the people to build positive mind. Throughout this study, there are several important implications how Lee’s government can lead to social integration in South Korea. When Lee’s government encourage the people to have confidence (self-efficacy) to take on and put in the necessary effort to succeed at challenging tasks, when Lee’s government make the people a positive attribution (optimism) about succeeding now and in the future, when Lee’s government help the people to persevere toward goals and redirect paths to goals (hope) in order to succeed, and when Lee’s government make the people beset by problems and adversity environment to overcome these concerns, it can be expected Lee’s government to build social integration and the people to create positive thinking which has been emphasized by Lee Myung-bak in South Korea.

한국과 미국의 공공부문 빅데이터 활용 현황 분석

정지형(Ji-Hyong Chung),김강훈(Gang-Hoon Kim) 한국정보과학회 2012 한국정보과학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.39 No.2D

인과지도 분석을 통한 긍정심리자본과 21세기 정치리더십의 재고찰

박상만 ( Sang Mahn Park ),김강훈 ( Gang Hoon Kim ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2013 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.14 No.4

The main purpose of this research is to introduce PsyCap(Positive Psychological Capital) and new leadership helping ordinary people to create positive thinking and leading to social integration in South Korea. Additionally, by looking at conventional leadership theories and by applying the PsyCap to leadership based on causal loop analysis, this study is to seek new approach which political leader is able to communicate with the people and can help the people to build positive mine. Throughout this study, there are several important implications how political leader can lead to social integration and stable political development in South Korea. In particular, when political leader encourage the people to have confidence to take on and put in the necessary effort to succeed at challenging tasks, when political leader make the people a positive attribution (optimism) about succeeding now and in the future, when political leader help the people to persevere toward goals and redirection paths to goals (hope) in order to succeed, and when political leader make the people beset by problems and adversity environment to overcome these concerns, it can be expected political leader to build social integration and the people to create positive thinking which has been emphasized by political leader in South Korea. Finally, 21st century has required new political leadership that the people are able to make positive psychological capital composed by optimism, hope, confidence, and resilience.

자살예방 정책수단 평가 및 해결방안 연구

김정기(Jung-Ki Kim),박상만(Sang-Mahn Park),김강훈(Gang-Hoon Kim) 한국산업경제학회 2017 산업경제연구 Vol.30 No.4

본 연구에서는 핀란드와 일본의 자살예방프로그램에 대한 경제적 분석 및 정책평가를 실시하였다. 본 연구 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 먼저 자살예방프로그램을 강력하게 시행한 국가들은 정책추진사후에 자살증가가 감소하고, 그 변동성이 안정적 상태로 나타났다. 둘째, 일본과 핀란드의 자살예방프로그램의 정책효과를 정량적으로 평가할 때, 평균 연간 자살률이 전년대비 14.2%감소되는 효과가 존재하였다. 셋째, 정부의 자살예방프로그램은 경제적인 요인뿐만 아니라 사회적인 요인을 포함하는 광범위한 정책수단을 추진할 때, 정책효과의 유효성이 나타났다. 본 연구 분석결과에 나타난 자살예방프로그램시행에 대한 정책적 시사점은 다음과 같다. 먼저 자살예방프로그램추진에 따른 긍정적 효과가 존재하기 때문에 장기적이고 지속적인 정책추진력이 중요한 요소임을 보여준다. 둘째, 정부차원의 자살예방프로그램이 성공하기 위해서는 광범위한 관련 영역 즉 경제영역과 사회영역 그리고 문화영역을 포함하는 정책적용범위가 요구된다. 마지막으로 자살예방프로그램의 정책효과를 극대화하기 위해서는 자살예방프로그램에 관련된 대상을 지속적으로 모니터링하고, 장기적 차원에서 빅 데이터 및 기계학습을 적용하는 단계가 요구된다. In this study, we conducted an economic analysis and policy evaluation of suicide prevention program. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, the countries that implemented the suicide prevention program strongly showed that the suicide rate decreased after the implementation of the policy and that the volatility was stable. Second, when quantitatively evaluating the policy effects of suicide prevention programs in Japan and Finland, the average annual suicide rate decreased by 14.2% from the previous year. Third, the government"s suicide prevention program showed the effectiveness of the policy effect when pursuing a wide range of policy instruments including economic factors as well as social factors. The results of this study suggest that the policy implications of suicide prevention programs are as follows. First, there is a positive effect of the suicide prevention program, which shows that long-term and sustained policy drive is an important factor. Second, in order to success the suicide prevention programs at the government, ranges of policy coverages including economic, social and cultural areas are required. Finally, in order to maximize the policy effect of the suicide prevention program, it is necessary to continuously monitor the subjects related to the suicide prevention program and to apply the big data and machine learning in the long term.

인과지도 분석을 통한 사회갈등 해소 및 통합 방안 연구

김정기 ( Jung Ki Kim ),박상만 ( Sang Mahn Park ),김강훈 ( Gang Hoon Kim ) 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2015 한국시스템다이내믹스 연구 Vol.16 No.4

The main purpose of this study is to seek better approach which explains reciprocal causality associated with factors causing social conflict and improving social integration respectively. Throughout this study, there are several important implications how social conflict can be solved in South Korea. In particular, government and policy makers in political sector should create an environment of social integration through political reforms by switching from vertical structure to horizontal structure and by encouraging ordinary people to actively participate in the policy-making processes and political activities. In economic sector, government and stakeholder associated with a certain economic issue should induce a change in the economic environment for social integration, focusing on distribution of wealth and employment stability. In social and cultural sectors, it is necessary to solve social and cultural problems (e.g., generation gap and conflict between the young and the old, multi-ethnic families, and lack of communication) by exploring better ways to establish an altruism and to interact with each other. In psychological sectors, PsyCap(Positive Psychological Capital) will help ordinary people to crate positive thinking and lead to social integration. For instance, political leaders having PsyCap are able to communicate with the people and can help the people to build positive main influencing on social integration. Finally, the improvement of the system is required because the improvement of insufficient system is the basis for reasonable and equitable social integration.

Dancing with the Stars

Ross A. Miller,Randall G. Bowdish,Kim Gang-Hoon(김강훈) 한국정치학회 2011 한국정치학회보 Vol.45 No.6

한반도는 주요충돌이 일어날 몇몇 지역 중 하나라는 사실에 대해 그 어느 누구도 의심하지 않을 것이다. 이와 관련해서, 본 연구의 목적은 기존에 논의되어지고 있는 국제관계이론들을 중심으로 북한과 남한의 충돌에 대한 역동성을 탐구하는 것이다. 이를 위해 국제관의 네 개의 일반적 설명(즉, 세력전이론, 상호관계론, 삼각성, 그 리고 상호의존성)을 평가하였다. 1991년부터 2004년 동안 월별데이터를 분석하여 다음과 같은 결과를 도출했다. 한반도의 남북관계를 설명하는데 있어 삼각성과 세력전이론이 설득력을 가졌다. 반면, 전통적 상호의존성과 상호관계론은 한반도의 남북관계를 설명하는데 있어 설득력이 떨어졌다. No one doubts that the Korean peninsula is one of only a few locations where a major conflict could break out. Regarding this, the main purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamics of the conflict between North and South Korea. It evaluates four general explanations of international interactions: power, reciprocity, triangularity, and interdependence. Based on an analysis of monthly data for the period 1991-2004, the most support is found for triangularity and power arguments; little evidence is found to support traditional interdependence or reciprocity explanations in North-South Korea relations.