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구병수 한국은행 2020 經濟分析 Vol.26 No.1
A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation. 중앙은행은 수익률곡선을 바탕으로 미래 수익률에 대한 시장의 기대를 추론한다. 통화정책의 유효성 제고를 위하여, 시장이 예상하는 미래 수익률의 움직임을 정확히 파악할 필요가 있기 때문이다. 이에 따라 그동안 수익률곡선과 시장기대를 정확하게 추정하기 위한다양한 모형들이 활용되었다. 이와 함께 채권시장의 발달로 채권시장과 거시경제간의 상호 연관성이 높아지면서 수익률곡선에 영향을 미치는 거시변수가 무엇인지 파악하는 것이 매우 중요해졌다. 그러나 수익률결정요인에 관한 다양한 이론이 있는 만큼 그동안의 선행연구에서는 수익률곡선 추정 모형에포함되는 거시변수들이 서로 달랐다. 이는 수익률곡선을 추정하는 데 있어 어떤 변수를 포함한 모형이 바람직한가에 관한 문제, 즉 모형 불확실성이 존재한다는 것을 의미한다. 이러한 상황에서 본 연구는 수익률곡선과 미래 수익률에 대한 시장기대를 정교하게 추정하기 위해 동태적 Nelson-Siegel 모형에 베이지안 변수선택 방법을 적용하였다. 베이지안 변수선택은 모형에 포함되는 중요한 변수를 선험적으로 결정하는 데 따르는 문제들을완화하고 모형 불확실성을 추정에 효율적으로 반영하는 포괄적인 방법이라는 점에서 바람직한 추정방법이 될 수 있다. 베이지안 변수선택 모형과 선행연구의 모형들을 비교한 결과 모형에 어떤 거시변수를포함하느냐에 따라 도출되는 미래 수익률에 대한 시장기대가 상당히 다르게 나타났다. 이는 모형 불확실성이 추정결과에 큰 영향을 미치며 이를 추정에 반영하는 것이 타당하다는것을 의미한다. 베이지안 변수선택 모형의 예측력이 선행연구의 다른 모형들보다 우월한것으로 나타난 점도 이를 뒷받침한다. 따라서 모형 불확실성이 추정에 영향을 미치는 상황에서 수익률곡선과 시장기대 추정의 정확성 제고를 위해 베이지안 변수선택 모형을 활용하는 것이 바람직할 것으로 판단된다.
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동의보감의 精ㆍ氣ㆍ神에 대한 신경정신과의 응용에 대한 고찰
具炳壽 대한한방신경정신과학회 2000 동의신경정신과학회지 Vol.11 No.2
1. Essence and Spirit of association go well embodiment of mind goes well. 2. Being component part by Three Valuable Properties of human body that is Essence, Vital force and Spirit, Cause that disease results is something wrong of Essence, Vital force and Spirit. 3. Essence. Vital force and Spirit cycle that see in Doga is that circulate through intermediate of saliva. 4. Morality curative means getting stability of mind as removing greed and it is that disease moves backward then naturally. 5. Fantasy and uneasiness about the future is cause of disease of mind.
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PTZ에 의해 痙攣誘發된 mouse에서 龍腦香의 抗痙攣 效果에 대한 實驗적 硏究
具炳壽,崔殷圭 동국대학교 경주대학 1999 東國論集 Vol.18 No.-
In order to prove the anticonvulsive effect of Borneolum fragrance in convulsion-induced mice, experiments were performed on anticonvulsive effect, GABA level, glutamic acid level, GABA-T activity and GAD activity. The results were obtained as follows : 1. As far as anticonvulsive effect was concemed, on the convulsion induced by pentylenetetrazole it was significant comparing to the control group. 2. GABA level was increased significantly in mice. 3. Glutamic acid level was decreased significantly in mice. 4. GABA-T activity was decreased by Borneolum fragrance. 5. Borneolum fragrance was not effective in GAD activity. From above result, Borneolum fragrance had significant effects on convulsion induced by pentylenetetrazole, so it is expected to clinical application on convulsive diseases such as epilepsy.
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讓渡擔保의 法的 性格과 不動産 名義信託制度에 關한 硏究 : 不動産實權利者名義登記에 關한 法律의 問題點을 中心으로
具炳秀 대구산업정보대학 1995 논문집 Vol.9 No.1
1. Title trust is a priority system which is for the purpose of trust security establishment, and then transfer of proprietary ringt to the creditor in order to execute for debt redemption by means of the reserved real property from the debtor in case that obligator could not meet the obligation. 2. Proprietary right of title trust an the real property between truster and trustee belongs to truster internally and manage it, but in reality, the title belongs to trustee externally. 3. Due to rapid economic growth, effective value of real properties have been maximized, Therefore, it has been accured that the intentionally with the intention of tax evasion, laws breaking and speculation. Even though government tried to regulate evils by application of special law for real property registration but it did not eradicate perfectly. Effective July 1, 1995, government will have enacted advanced law of real property title registration for actual ownership. But there are exceptions providing room for abusing regarding transfer security and title trust pursuant to trust law system. To prevent this likely abusing, the government should provide with substantial judgement authority to for public confidencd when it comes to real property registration.
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