인구 고령화가 실질금리에 미치는 영향: 가계의 금융행태를 감안한 실증분석

강종구 한국금융학회 2024 금융연구 Vol.38 No.1

Real interest rates are determined by the demand for and supply of funds in the financial market. Individuals influence the demand for and supply of funds through financial activities such as borrowing and saving. Financial behaviors, including borrowing and saving patterns, vary across different stages of life. This implies that different age groups have different impacts on real interest rates. Young adults, for instance, tend to borrow more for purposes like home purchasing and education, which acts as a factor driving interest rate increases. Middle-aged adults, including early elderly individuals, typically have the largest accumulated wealth and savings, leading to a decrease in real interest rates as their population increases. Subsequently, late elderly individuals tend to diminish their net savings through increased consumption or gifting, resulting in a decrease in net savings and a consequent rise in interest rates as their population grows. To measure the impact of population aging on real interest rates accurately, it’s essential to analyze how financial behaviors change throughout the life cycle. Existing empirical studies on the influence of demographic changes on real interest rates often categorize age groups based on labor force participation or use fixed age intervals (e.g., 20-year intervals) as explanatory variables. However, this approach fails to account for changes in financial behaviors across different age groups, potentially leading to inaccurate estimations of the impact of demographic changes on real interest rates. Particularly, it may overlook the effect of reduced net savings among the elderly population, resulting in an overestimation of the decline in real interest rates due to future population aging. In contrast to previous research that categorized age groups based on labor force participation, this study reclassified age groups based on changes in financial behaviors throughout the life cycle to analyze the impact of demographic changes on real interest rates empirically. Additionally, regression analysis was conducted assuming that the coefficients for age groups affecting real interest rates follow a polynomial form. The analysis revealed that an increase in the proportion of young adults leads to an increase in real interest rates, while an increase in the proportion of middle-aged adults leads to a decrease in real interest rates. Conversely, an increase in the proportion of late elderly adults leads to an increase in real interest rates. Using the estimated coefficients from this empirical analysis and population projections from the United Nations, the study derived how real interest rates would change in response to future demographic changes in various countries. Contrary to previous studies suggesting a continuous decline in real interest rates due to population aging, it was found that real interest rates are expected to rise between 2020 and 2030. Moreover, given the rapid pace of population aging expected in South Korea, the projected increase in real interest rates is notably high.

DPSO 알고리즘을 적용한 수동탐지소나 배치 연구

강종구,Kang, Jong-Gu 한국시뮬레이션학회 2017 한국시뮬레이션학회 논문지 Vol.26 No.1

은밀하게 침투하여 아군의 핵심자산으로 접근하는 표적 잠수함을 상시 감시하기 위하여 수중 해저면 위치에 최적의 고정형 수동탐지소나를 배치하는 것을 고려 할 수 있다. 수동탐지소나 배치 최적화를 위한 효과도 지수는 넓은 탐지영역과 위치추정가능성의 함수로 적용할 수 있는데 계절적인 요인, 해상상태, 표적 잠수함의 침투심도 등의 다양한 확률적 변이를 포함하고 있어서 효과도지수가 배치의 입력에 대하여 확률적으로 나타나는 특성을 갖는다. 본 논문에서는 다양한 파라메타의 입력조건에 대하여 확률적인 출력을 갖는 수동탐지소나의 배치에 대한 최적화 문제를 정의하였으며, DPSO(Discrete binary version of PSO) 방법을 사용하여 최적 배치 안을 도출하기 위한 모의기반의 절차를 제시하고 고찰하였다. An arrangement of passive sonars is considered to be a fixed underwater surveillance system for detecting an anti-submarine consistently. An effectiveness score for optimizing the arrangement of passive sonars is defined in a function of the probability of detection and localization. These two features contain various probabilistic variations including seasons, sea states, depths of water, etc. Due to this reason, the effectiveness scores show probabilistic characteristics from the input of the arrangement of passive sonars. This paper defines the optimization problem having the results of probabilistic characteristics from various parameters of input conditions. Also, we suggest a simulation-based process of deciding the optimized arrangement of passive sonars using DPSO(Discrete binary version of PSO) method.

Effect of Nutrient Solution Concentration and Irrigation Method on the Growth of Potted Roses

강종구,이인호,이범선 한국화훼학회 2004 화훼연구 Vol.12 No.3

To evaluate the effects of nutrient solution concentration and irrigationmethods on the growth of potted roses ( R o s a s e m p e r f l o r e n s Minima 'Arba'), plantswere fertilized with five different nutrient solution concentrations formulated by theJapanese Horticultural Experiment Station [0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0× full strength; electric conductivities (EC) of 0.9, 1.7, 2.2, 4.8 and 5.8 dS・m-1, respectively],using hand-watering and ebb and flow systems. Leachate EC increased withincreasing nutrient solution concentrations in both hand-watering and ebb and flowsystems. Leachate EC increased more with the ebb and flow irrigation than with thehand-watering when a solution of the same concentration was used. Leachate pHdecreased with increasing nutrient solution concentration independent of theirrigation method. Ebb and flow consistently resulted in higher plant height, width,shoot dry weight and leaf area than hand-watering at the same rate of nutrientsolution concentration. At the end of the growing period, maximum shoot dryweight, leaf area and plant width were obtained when plants were fertilized with a0.5× concentration, while plant height and stem diameter increased with 0.5 or1.0× concentrations, regardless of the irrigation method. In our experiment, plantgrowth (plant height and width, leaf area and shoot dry weight) of the potted roseswas maximized when plants were fertilized with 0.5× concentration with the ebband flow irrigation, while the final EC of the growing medium was approximately 3.0 dS・m-1 in this treatment. Leaf tissue analysis showed significantly higherconcentration of N, P and K in plants grown with hand-watering as compared tothose grown in an ebb and flow system, while the concentrations of Ca, Mg and Sin the leaves was not affected by the irrigation method. The Mg concentration ofthe leaves decreased significantly with increasing nutrient solution concentration,irrespective of the irrigation method. Increasing nutrient solution concentrationresulted in an increase in N, K and Ca concentrations in the leaves.

촉성재배 도라지의 생장과 개화에 미치는 Gibberellin, Paclobutrazol 및 저온의 효과

강종구,양승렬,허북구 順天大學校 農業科學硏究所 1996 農業科學硏究 Vol.10 No.-

As an effort to establish of basic data for control of flowering and production of pot plants of Platycodon grandiflorum, the effects of the low temperature, Gibberellin(GA), and Paclobutrazol(PP333), on its forcing cultivation were investigated. No sprouting appeared in the non-treatment(control). However, when treated both with low temperature (each for 15, 30, and 45 days) and GA (each 50, 100, and 200㎎/ℓ) more than 95% of sprouting was effected. The flowering rate was relatively low 46 to 70% when treated with low temperature and GA. The flowering date was promoted with 100 to 119 days after planting in the GA + PP333 treatment ; rather delayed with 119 to 126 days when treated with only GA. The plant height at the flowering time was more than 70 ㎝ in the low temperature or 50 and 100㎎/ℓ of GA treatment, and a little restrained to 42 to 53 ㎝ when treated with GA+PP333.

축구선수가 선호하는 코치의 지도행동에 관한 연구

姜鍾求 全北大學校 1996 論文集 Vol.41 No.-

The purpose of this study was to find out (1) what type of coaching behaviors soccer players prefer, (2) if there is any difference between soccer players and the other sport players in understanding their coaches' coaching behaviors, and (3) how much they are satisfied with their coaches' coaching behaviors. The subjects chosen at random consisted of 419 male soccer players and 2364 male athletes engaging in the other sports, who finished high school and had a career of more than 5 years as sport players. The Korean version of LSS(Leadership Scale for Sport) was used as the questionnaire in order to measure coaches' coaching behaviors, which was divided into five types : TI(Training and Instruction Behavior), DB(Democratic Behavior), AB(Autocratic Behavior), SS(Social Support Behavior), PF(Positive Feedback). The measured material was translated into T-score, and the difference between groups and between types was examined by SPSSX' CONDESCRIPTIVE, ONEWAY, T-TEST, PEARSON CORRELATION, and RELIABILITY. The conclusions are a follows : 1. Compared with the other sport players, soccer players have a preference for AB(autocratic behavior) rather than all the other coaches' coaching behaviors. (p < .05) 2. Soccer players preferred AB(Autocratic Behavior), TI(Training and Instruction behavior) and PF(Positive feedback) over the other coaches' coaching behaviors. The preference of soccer players was the lowest in DB(Democratic Behavior).

중도장애학생의 의사소통 어려움에 대한 국내와 외국 연구의 비교 분석

강종구,오세철 한국특수교육교과교육학회 2019 특수교육교과교육연구 Vol.12 No.4

This study attempted to explore research trend on communication of students with severe disabilities through domestic and foreign articles. For the purpose of this study, researchers reviewed and analyzed 68 articles (52 domestic and 16 foreign articles) published since 2000. The researchers classified these articles as themes and variables. The researchers identified 6 major themes and 14 sub-themes. The researchers also identified 6 variables such as the types of journal, published years, the types of disabilities, research method, research subject, and grade level. The analysis result of themes showed that domestic studies tended to focus on the intervention of students with severe disabilities. The analysis result of variables showed that domestic studies had greatly increased since 2010 and had published in journals dealing with overall disabilities rather than in journals dealing with specific disabilities. In addition, domestic studies usually used quantitative research methods on students with disabilities, and tended to present grade level specifically. 본 연구에서는 국내와 외국 문헌을 통해 중도장애학생의 의사소통에 관한 연구 경향을 탐구하고자 하였다. 본 연구의 목적을 위해 2000년 이후 발표된 68편의 논문(국내 논문 52편과 외국 논문 16편)을 검토 및 분석하였으며, 검토대상 논문들은 주제 및 변인으로 분류하였다. 본 연구의 결과로서 연구자들은 6개의 대주제 및 14개의 하위 주제를 확인하였다. 연구자들은 또한 학술지 유형, 발표연도, 장애유형, 연구방법, 연구주제, 학교급과 같은 6가지 변인들을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결론은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 주제에 대한 분석 결과 국내 연구는 중도장애학생의 중재에 중점을 두는 경향이 있었다. 둘째, 변인에 대한 분석 결과 국내 연구는 2010년 이후 크게 증가하였으며, 특정 장애를 다루는 학술지보다는 장애 전체를 다루는 학술지들에서 많이 발표되고 있었다. 또한 국내 문헌은 중도장애학생을 대상으로 양적 연구방법을 주로 사용하면서, 학교급을 구체적으로 제시하는 경향이 있었다.

두부외상에 의한 기질성 정신장애환자의 단축형 K-WAIS

강종구,오상우 圓光大學校 醫科學硏究所 1996 圓光醫科學 Vol.12 No.1

The purpose of this study was to make an short form of K-WAIS for patients with organic mental disorder due to head trauma. The patients were 215 brain damage patients with organic mental disorder whose sex were composed of 160 male and 55 female. The new form consisted of comprehension, vocabulary, picture completion, and picture arrangement. Multiple correlation coefficient(R=.81) with Full IQ was higher than that of the existing short-form and could explain 66%. This result suggested that K-WAIS short-form was enable to estimate IQ for patients with organic mental disorder due to head trauma.

분화류 저면 관수(Ebb & Flow)재배에서 품질 향상을 위한 시비기술

강종구 한국생물환경조절학회 2002 한국생물환경조절학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.- No.-

장애학생 교육과정에 대한 국내·외 연구 분석

강종구 한국특수교육교과교육학회 2019 특수교육교과교육연구 Vol.12 No.1

The purpose of this study was to identify the direction for domestic special education curriculum by reviewing domestic and foreign articles dealing with the curriculum of students with disabilities. For the purpose of this study, the researcher analyzed 88 domestic and foreign articles published since 2010. The results of literature review on domestic and foreign curriculum were as follow. First, the themes related to the curriculum of students with disabilities mainly dealt with analysis of current curriculum, practice of current curriculum, exploration of new curriculum, and development and practice of new curriculum. This study showed that domestic articles mainly dealt with the analysis of current curriculum and the exploration of new curriculum, and did not have much attention the contents related to the of curriculum. Second, as the variable characteristics of curriculum of students with disabilities, domestic articles showed that they had many studies on intellectual disabilities, hearing impairment and severe·multiple disabilities regarding the types of disabilities, usually explored basic curriculum in terms of curriculum, mostly used literature study and research study regarding research method, and usually focused on teachers as research subjects. This study insists that it is necessary to have more studies that directly practice curriculum among domestic curriculum of students with disabilities. In addition, this study argues that it is necessary to have interests on more various curriculum, including general education curriculum, functional curriculum and visual impairment curriculum, for supporting students with disabilities having various educational placements and needs. 본 연구는 장애학생의 교육과정을 다루는 국내·외 논문들에 대한 검토를 통해 국내 특수교육 교육과정의 방향성을 알아보는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 이를 위해 장애학생의 교육과정과 관련하여 2010년 이후 발표된 국내·외 논문 88편을 분석하였다. 국내·외 교육과정에 대한 문헌검토 결과는 다음과 같았다. 첫째, 장애학생의 교육과정과 관련된 주제들은 현행 교육과정의 분석, 현행 교육과정의 실행, 새로운 교육과정의 탐색, 새로운 교육과정의 개발 및 실행을 다루고 있었다. 국내 논문들의 경우 현행 교육과정의 분석 및 새로운 교육과정의 탐색을 주로 다루고 있으며, 교육과정의 실행과 관련된 내용은 잘 다루어지지 않고 있었다. 둘째, 장애학생 교육과정의 변인별 특징들로서 국내 논문들은 장애유형의 경우 지적장애, 청각장애, 중도·중복장애에 대한 연구가 많으며, 교육과정에 있어서는 기본교육과정이 주로 다루어지고 있으며, 연구방법으로는 문헌연구 및 조사연구를 통한 연구방법이 주로 사용되었으며, 연구대상으로는 교사들이 주로 다루어졌다. 본 연구는 국내 장애학생의 교육과정에 대한 연구들 가운데 교육과정을 직접적으로 실행하는 연구들이 보다 많이 이루어질 필요가 있음을 주장하였다. 이와 함께, 본 연구는 다양한 교육적 배치 및 요구를 가진 장애학생들을 지원하기 위하여 일반교육과정, 기능적교육과정, 시각장애 교육과정을 포함하여 보다 다양한 교육과정에 대한 관심을 가질 필요가 있음을 주장하였다.

특수교육대상자의 특수학교ᆞ급 배치의 다양화 방안

강종구,김라경,고혜정 대구대학교 특수교육재활과학연구소 2018 특수교육재활과학연구 Vol.57 No.4

The purpose of the study is to investigate the stakeholders’ satisfaction and perception of the current special schoolᆞclassroom placement system and to suggest a new direction of types of special schoolᆞclassroom system (special school annexed, base special classroom, and extended special classroom) for students with disabilities. For this purpose, we conducted a focus group interview with three groups (the stakeholders; administrators, teachers, parents), separated by group. The results of this study were as follows: First, stakeholders noticed the current special schoolᆞ classroom placement had a decrease in students’ school attendance, and the lack of the consideration on the needs of disabilities. Second, special school annexed and extended special classroom were perceived positively as the new types of placements.Third, what are the next steps to the establishment ways and tasks for special school annexed and extended special classrooms were suggested. This study emphasizes that the necessity to grasp the types of special schoolᆞclassroom suitable to each region and that the provision of appropriate services according to each placement. 본 연구의 목적은 현재의 특수학교ᆞ급 배치 시스템에 대한 이해당사자의 만족 및 인식을조사하고, 특수교육대상자를 위한 특수학교ᆞ급 시스템(병설특수학교, 거점특수학급, 확장형특수학급)의 유형에 대한 새로운 방향을 제안하기 위한 것이다. 이를 위해 3개의 그룹(행정가, 교사, 학부모)과 각각 한 번씩 포커스그룹 면담을 실시하였다. 본 연구에서 나타난 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 이해당사자는 현재의 특수학교ᆞ급 배치는 학생 통학의 어려움과 장애 요구에 대한 고려의 부족을 증가시킬 수 있다. 둘째, 새로운 배치 유형에 있어서는 병설특수학교와 확장형 특수학급을 비교적 선호하였다. 셋째, 병설특수학교와 확장형 특수학급을위한 설립 방향 및 과제가 제시되었다. 본 연구에서는 새로운 유형의 특수학교ᆞ급의 설립을 위해서는 각 지역에 적합한 특수학교ᆞ급의 유형을 파악할 필요성 및 각각의 배치에 적절한 서비스의 제공이 이루어질 필요성을 강조하였다.