http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
- 中文 을 입력하시려면 zhongwen을 입력하시고 space를누르시면됩니다.
- 北京 을 입력하시려면 beijing을 입력하시고 space를 누르시면 됩니다.
RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : 李鍾和(Lee Jong wha) (검색결과 2 건)
- 무료
- 기관 내 무료
- 유료
-
李鍾和(Lee Jong wha) 호서대학교 사회과학연구소 1984 社會科學硏究 Vol.3 No.1
The hypothesis that forms the basis of this empirical study is that real output fluctuations are triggered by unanticipated monetary shocks. This hypothesis is explicit in equilibrium models of business cycle, such as those of Lucas(1972), Sargent and Wallace(1975), and Barro(1976) and empirically accepted in Barro(1977, 1978, 1980)) for the U.S. economy. However, only a study has been done by Yoon(1981) to apply the hypothesis to the Korean economy. In order to test the hypothesis empirically, first of all, a simple rational expectation monetary model was specified and unanticipated. money growth-actual money growth less the expected rate of inflation-was measured. In hypothesizing the expected rate of inflation in the Korean economy, where markets, knowledge of economic theory, and information are imperfect it seems appropriate to use a simplified approach to expectation formation. Accordingly, a simple approach was used, in which in lation was assumed to be predicted directly by the past inflation as in the well-known adaptive expectations with full adjustments to errors. A second alternative was also investigated, in which money growth was assumed to depend on previou:a values of money growth and the expected rate of inflation was substituted for the measure of anticipated money growth. Over the 1968-1981 period, the contemporaneous value of unanticipated movements in money turned out to have effects that were significantly positive on real GNP-real economic variable in the focus of this study. Furthermore the persistent real output effects of lagged unanticpated monetary shocks could not be rejected by F-tests. Judged by these emprical results, the hypothesis that unanticipated monetary shocks and accelerator effects had generated business cycle during the estimation period was acceptable to be significant in the Korean economy. Although the simplification of expectation formation and model specification presented some problems, this study would provide an implication that by increasing monetary stability, government can reduce real aggregate variability and thus, increase welfare.
-
李鍾和(Jong wha Lee),孫東辰(Dong jin Son) 호서대학교 사회과학연구소 1985 社會科學硏究 Vol.4 No.1
Milton Friedman argued that physical goods should be regarded as a substitute for money and that higher expected rates of inflation should induce a portfolio shift from money to physical assets. As Friedman has derived his equation, the demand for real balances is a function of the expected rate of inflation in addition to nominal interest rates and real income. A number of empirical studies for different countries have shown that the anticipated rate of inflation has an independent direct effect on the demand for money, other than via interest rates. But in Korea, there are few studies about the role of expected rate of inflation in the demand for money. The purpose of this paper is to test the significance of the sorted-out independent effect of the expected rate of inflation on real balances and to suggest more appropriate monetary policy in such country suffering high inflation as Korea. In this paper a real partial adjustment mechanism of money demand is assumed. And the expected rate of inflation is estimated by the stochastic time series model (ARIMA model). According to the evidence of this paper, the expected rate of inflation exerts significant influences upon money holdings, while nominal rate of interest has little explanatory powr in money demand function. This confirms the fact that nominal rate of interest has been under the strict government control and has not reflected the opportunity cost of money holdings in Korea. These results suggest that monetary authority should control money supply more carefully in Korea, where everyone has inflationary expectations. In further studies particular emphasis should be given on the mechanism of price expectations formation associated with .the appropriate specification of the money demand function and the correct forecast of the effect of monetary policy.
연관 검색어 추천
이 검색어로 많이 본 자료
활용도 높은 자료
