세대간회계에 의한 국민연금의 세대간형평성과 지속가능성 측정

최기홍 한국은행 2016 經濟分析 Vol.22 No.2

This study derives the indicators of intergenerational equity and sustainability for the social security pension from generational accounting. The characteristic of this generational accounting can be summarized by two aspects. First, it follows the “sustainability approach” instead of the conventional “residual approach.” Second, all the generational accounts cover their entire lifetime using both the actuarial projection model and the administrative data, which are available in the most social security pension schemes. According to a demonstration analysis, the cohort profitabilities, an indicator of intergenerational equity, are decreasing as birth year increases. The reason is that the special benefits in the early stage phased out and the effects of the two reforms in 1998, 2007 are gradually increasing. The more desirable indicator of per capita net benefits show the highest value around the cohort born in 1975 due to their larger coverage rates and longer contribution years despite their lower profitabilities. Next, all the proposed indicators of sustainability display values less than half of those values of the OASDI. Finally, a simulation shows that the 15% contribution rate, considered as a long-run actuarially fair rate, is not sufficient for the sustainability. It means a combination of diverse reform measures are required to recover the sustainability of current scheme. 본고는 국민연금에 적합한 세대간형평성과 지속가능성의 지표들을 세대간회계로부터 도출하고 측정치들을 제시한다. 본고의 세대간회계는 두 가지의 특징이 있다. 첫째, Auerbach etal.(1991)의 ‘잔차 접근법’이라는 전통적 세대간회계에 비해 간명한 유럽연합 연구자들의 ‘지속가능성 접근법’이라고 하는 새로운 세대간회계이다. 둘째, 사회보장연금들에 일반적인 장기추계모형과 가입자들의 이력자료를 이용하여 모든 세대계정이 전체 생애에 대해 추계되는 Leimer(1994), 최기홍(2013)의 ‘확장된 세대간회계’이다. 도출된 지표들은 2013년 재정계산의 추계모형과 이력자료로부터 시범적으로 측정되었다. 먼저 세대간형평성의 지표로서 세대별 수익성은 제도 초기 특혜의 소멸과 1998, 2007년 재정안정화 조치의 영향으로 후세대로 갈수록 낮아진다. 보다 바람직한 지표인 세대별 일인당 순혜택은 초기세대들이 높은 수익성에도 불구하고 낮은 가입률과 짧은 기여연수로 가장 작고 1975년 무렵 출생한 세대들이 높은 가입률과 긴 기여연수로 통념과 달리 가장 크다. 다음으로 국민연금의 모든 지속가능성 지표들은 재정적으로 취약한 미국 OASDI에 비해서도 두 배 이상 낮게 나타나서 개혁의 필요성을 시사한다. 추계모형을 이용한 가상적인 보험료 인상 시뮬레이션에 의하면 장기 수지상등 (actuarially fair) 보험료로 판단되는 15% 수준의 인상에도 지속가능하지 못하여 다양한 재정안정화 방안들에 대한 검토가 필요한 것으로 보인다.

범죄와 정신질환의 관계, 사회적 편견은 어느 정도인가?

최기홍 한국헬스커뮤니케이션학회 2017 헬스커뮤니케이션연구 Vol.16 No.2

[발표_지역사회기반 행동활성화 프로그램(우울증/조현병)] 지역사회 기반 행동활성화 프로그램 개발

최기홍 한국정신건강사회복지학회 2018 한국정신건강사회복지학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.2018 No.5

股關節의 生力學

崔基洪 최신의학사 1970 最新醫學 Vol.13 No.8

Hepatic Splenosis Preoperatively Diagnosed as Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Patient with Chronic Hepatitis B: A Case Report

최기홍,주만기,June Young Kim,강창무,김경식,최진섭,한광협,박미숙,박영년,이우정,김병로 대한의학회 2008 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.23 No.2

We report on a case of hepatic splenosis. A 32-yr-old man underwent a splenectomy due to trauma at the age of 6. He had been diagnosed as being a chronic hepatitis B-virus carrier 16 yr prior to the surgery. The dynamic computer tomography (CT) performed due to elevated serum alpha-fetoprotein (128 ng/mL) demonstrated two hepatic nodules, which were located near the liver capsule. A nodule in Segment IVa had a slight enhancement during both the arterial and portal phases, and another nodule in Segment VI showed a slight enhancement only in the portal phases. Dynamic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the mass in Segment VI showed enhanced development in the arterial phases and slight hyperintensivity to the liver parenchyma in the portal phases. These imaging findings suggested a hypervascular tumor in the liver, which could be either focal nodular hyperplasia, adenoma, or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Even though these lesions were diagnosed as HCC, some of the findings were not compatible with typical HCC. On dynamic CT and MRI, all lesions showed a slight arterial enhancement and did not show early venous washout. All lesions were located near the liver capsule. These findings, along with a history of splenectomy, suggested a diagnosis of hepatic splenosis.

Theory of mind in Koreans with schizophrenia: A meta-analysis

최기홍 ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD 2015 PSYCHIATRY RESEARCH Vol.229 No.12

Bismuth Type IV (Left Dominant Type) 간문부담관암 환자에서 좌간 및 미상엽 절제술

최기홍,김동현,강창무,최진섭,이우정 한국간담췌외과학회 2010 한국간담췌외과학회 학술대회지 Vol.2010 No.3

해상운임지수와 상품가격 사이의 동적 연계성 분석

최기홍,김부권 한국항만경제학회 2022 韓國港灣經濟學會誌 Vol.38 No.2

This study applied the method of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014, 2016) to analyze the connectedness between the Freight Index (BDI, BDTI, BCTI), energy price(oil, natural gas, coal), and grain price(soybean, corn, wheat) from July 19, 2007 to March 31, 2022. The main analysis results of this paper are as follows. First, according to the network analysis results, the total connectedness was measured to be 20.43% for the entire analysis period, indicating that there was a low correlation between the freight index and the commodity price. In addition, looking at the directional results, the variable with the greatest effects was corn, and conversely, the variable with the lowest effects BDI. When classified by events,BCTI was found to play a major role only during the COVID-19 period. Second, according to the results of the rolling-sample analysis, the total connectedness be found to be highly correlated with changes in economic conditions such as the financial crisis, trade war, and COVID-19 when specific events occurred. 본 연구는 Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014, 2016)의 분석방법을 적용하여 2007년 7월 19일부터2022년 3월 31일까지 해상운임지수(BDI, BDTI, BCTI)에너지(원유, 천연가스, 석탄), 곡물(대두, 옥수수,밀)을 대상으로 연계성을 분석하였다. 본 논문의 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 네트워크 분석 결과에 따르면 전체 분석기간의 경우총 연계성은 20.43%로 측정되어, 해상운임지수와 상품가격 사이에 상호 연관성이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 방향 연계성 결과를 살펴보면, 영향력이 가장 큰 변수는 옥수수로 나타났으며, 그 반대로BDI가 가장 낮은 변수로 나타났다. 마지막으로 시기별로 구분하였을 때, COVID-19 기간에만 BCTI가주도적인 역할을 하는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 표본이동분석결과에 따르면, 총 연계성이 금융위기, 무역전쟁, COVID-19 등과 같이 경제 상황의 변화와 특정 사건이 발생할 때 서로 간의 상호 연관성이 높은것으로 나타났다.

고관절 후방탈구 및 대퇴골두 부분골절 : 3례 보고

최기홍,강충남,왕진만,노권재,조동원 梨花女子大學校 醫科大學 醫科學硏究所 1984 EMJ (Ewha medical journal) Vol.7 No.3

The authors experienced three cases of posterior hip dislocations associated with femoral head fractures which are very rare condition. One of them was treated with closed method and the others were treated with surgical method. The result of treatment i three cases was good.

경위 근위부 골절의 치험

최기홍,강충남,왕진만,노권재,이상겸 대한골절학회 1990 대한골절학회지 Vol.3 No.2

The management of extra-articular proximal tibial fracture remains controversy. Many reporters recognized that the proximal tibial facture are best treated by closed reduction and long leg cast, however delayed union with this method have frequently been documented in spite of anatomical characteristics of proximal tibia. Thirty patierrts of the fracture of extra-articular proximal tibia were treated and managed at the Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Ewha University Hospital from January, 1983 to December 1989. The following results were obtained: 1. According to Gerard classification, anterior long oblique & posterior long oblique fracture were 18 cases(60%) and 8 cases(27%) respectively. Delayed union developed in 9 cases(50&) of 18 cases anterior long oblique fracture and 2 cases(25%) of 8 cases posterior long oblique fracture. 2. All cases of deleyed union of tibia developed through or below the tuberosity. 3. Among 30 cases, the fractures were managed with closed method at 23 cases, open method at 7 cases, internal fixation at 12 cases without delayed union and external fixator at 10 cases The all cases using external fixator resulted in delayed union. 4. Among 30 cases, 16 cases(53%) were open fracture, and the most common type was type lllb. Delayed union developed in 8 cases(50%) of 9 cases(56%) type lllb. 5. The 24 cases(80%) of fibular fracture were concurred with proximal tibial fracture, and delayed union developed in 10 cases(42%) of 24 cases fibular fracture and one case of 6 cases without fibular fracture. In conclusion, many delayed unions were frequent, In our experience, in case of Grade III open comminuted fractures, we used external fixation methods mostly, so delayed unions were developed. But after management of soft tissue injury, healing time were short with bone graft as soon as possible, We consider that in cases in which internal fixation was possible according to soft tissue injury, delayed unions are prevented by internal fixation using plate and screws or retrograde flexible nails.