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질적비교분석 방법을 이용한 산림 변천 요인에 대한 연구 -아시아 9 개국을 중심으로-
윤여창 ( Youn Yeo Chnag ),최준영 ( Choi Jun Yoeng ) 한국임학회 2014 산림과학 공동학술대회 논문집 Vol.2014 No.-
산림 변천은 한 지역 내에서 산림 파괴가 일어난 후 산림의 질적, 양적인 회복을 설명하는 현상이다. 본 연구의 목적은 아시아 9 개국(중국, 인도, 일본, 한국, 베트남, 라오스, 말레이시아, 인도네시아, 필리핀)에서 수집된 데이터를 질적 비교 방법을 이용하여 산림 변천을 설명하는 필수 요소를 파악하는 것이다. 질적 비교 방법은 제한된 사례 연구를 이용하여 대규모 분석을 수행할 수 있는 비교 방법이다. 본 방법을 위하여 본 연구에서는 산림 변천을 이끄는 네 가지 중요한 결과를 얻을 수있었다. 첫째, 산림 변화는 엄격한 규제 정책 조건 하에서 이루어진다. 둘째, 산림의 농지 변화는 농업 생산력의 상승으로 억제할 수 있다. 셋째, 산림으로부터의 목재에 대한 수요는 목재 수입 자유화에 의해 완화 될 수 있다. 넷째, 목재 무역 규제 하에서 산림에 대한 소유권의 부재는 산림 파괴를 이끌 수 있다. Forest transition means a phenomenon describing forest cover turnover after forest area loss within a given territory. Goal of this research is to identify critical factor or combination of factors for forest transition using qualitative comparative analysis between nine Asian countries: China, India, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Philippines. Qualitative Comparative Analysis is a method that provides analytical tools for implementing rigorous meta-analysis of a limited number of case studies. The results tell us that here are four important factors, which can lead to forest transition or causing deforestation. First, forest transition can occur only with effective regulatory policy execution. Without effective regulatory policy execution deforestation can occur. Second, the demand for land conversion to agricultural activities can be eased by agricultural productivity improvement. Third, the pressure on forest originating from demand for timber can be reduced by liberalization of timber import in timber resource poor countries. Fourth, if there is no forestland tenure secured for poor local residents under timber trade restriction, deforestation can be resulted.
윤여창,조나래,이성덕 한국데이터정보과학회 2017 한국데이터정보과학회지 Vol.28 No.6
In this study, the problems in the short term stock market forecasting are analyzed and the feasibility of the ARIMA method and the backpropagation neural network is discussed. Neural network and genetic algorithm in short term stock forecasting is also examined. Since the backpropagation algorithm often falls into the local minima trap, we optimized the backpropagation neural network and established a genetic algorithm based on backpropagation neural network for forecasting model in order to achieve high forecasting accuracy. The experiments adopted the korea composite stock price index series to make prediction and provided corresponding error analysis. The results show that the genetic algorithm based on backpropagation neural network model proposed in this study has a significant improvement in stock price index series forecasting accuracy. 본 연구에서는 단기 예측을 위한 자기회귀누적이동평균모형, 역전파 신경망 및 유전자 알고리즘의 결합 적용에 대하여 논의하고 이를 통한 유전자-신경망 알고리즘의 효용성을 살펴본다. 일반적으로 역전파 알고리즘은 지역 최소값에 수렴될 수 있는 단점이 있기 때문에, 여기서는 예측 정확도를 높이기 위해 역전파 신경망 구조를 최적화자고 유전자 알고리즘을 결합한 유전자-신경망 알고리즘 기반 예측모형을 구축한다. 실험을 통한 오차 비교는 KOSPI 지수를 이용한다. 결과는 이 연구에서 제안된 유전자-신경망 모형이 역전파 신경망 모형과 비교할 때 예측 정확도에서 어느 정도 유의한 효율성을 보여주고자 한다.
윤여창(Yeo Chang Youn),손철호(Cheol Ho Son),이진규(Jin Kue Lee) 한국산림과학회 1994 한국산림과학회지 Vol.83 No.1
To investigate the effects of national forest management on the regional community, the inter-relationship between the local communities and neighbouring forest owned by the state was surveyed in the three locations, namely pyungchang-gun, Bonghwa-gun, and Kwangyang-gun, which have a large area of national forest. The effect of national forest management on the local community was different depending upon the relationship between the local community and the national forest the resource base and infrastructure and facilities installed within the national forest. The major contribution of the national forest to regional society is the provision of land resources, forest products, employment opportunities, and social functions of forest. The supply of land resource from `he national forest has been increasing steadily due to the increase in demand for public facilities. About one quarter of household income in the forest villages surveyed came out of the sales of forest products, mainly non-timber products. Due to the low level of forest operations for timber production, there are very limited opportunities of employment provided by the national forest. And the use of forest roads by local residents was also to a limited extent. Therefore, it is suggested that the national frosts should be managed such that help to revive the economy of local communities which are disadvantaged in the national investment priority due to the low economic returns .
산림자원관리정책이 국내재공급에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
윤여창(Yeo Chang Youn),염상철(Sang Cheol Yum) 한국산림과학회 1992 한국산림과학회지 Vol.81 No.4
The objective of this study is to evaluate the impacts on the domestic timber supply potential of forest resources management policies such as the extention of forest management infrastruture and setting aside more forest lands for the provision of environmental goods. To this end, the domestic timber supply functions were estimated using time series data for the period 1970-1990 and were used to predict the future trends in timber production in the Republic of Korea. For this purpose, a set of scenarios based on the forest road density and forest inventory growth were designed for the next 40 years. The timber supply behavior in Korea was found to be different by species group : domestic supply of softwood roundwood is inelastic with respect to its ovum price while that of hardwood elastic. The effect of forest road construction on the domestic timber production seems to be insignificant yet. The model simulation aided by policy scenarios revealed that the future timber supply potential will be largely restricted if the policy option with emphasis on the provision of environmental goods from the forest resources were adopted.
우리나라의 목재수요에 관한 연구 - 장기수요전망을 중심으로 -
윤여창(Yeo Chang Youn),김의경(Eui Gyeong Kim) 한국산림과학회 1992 한국산림과학회지 Vol.81 No.2
This study was carried out to estimate long-term demand functions, and to project consumption of roundwood to the year 2030, using time series data for the period 1970-1990. Especially, the unique features of this study are in the estimation of demand functions for roundwood by species group and by end-use with help of dummy variables. It also, attempts to show how dummy variables can be utilized for improving the estimation result. The result of this study reveals that hardwood roundwood consumption is being substituted by softwood roundwood due to the rapid increase in the relative price of softwood, and this trend is expected to continue in the near future. The consumption of roundwood by mining industry is projected to fall as the coal :mining is expected to decline. The parametric estimates of timber demand function by species group and by end-use indicate that the demand for timber in Korea is more responsive to the performance of domestic economy as a whole, represented by GDP in this study, than to other variables such as own and substitute prices. The effects of population growth and substitute prices could not be determined.