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So What About a Power Shift? Caveat Emptor
( Steve Chan ) 경남대학교 극동문제연구소 2014 ASIAN PERSPECTIVE Vol.38 No.3
This article considers the general idea of power shifts, with specific reference to the discourse on "China`s." I raise theoretical and policy concerns about the nature, sources, and consequences of China`s reemergence as a reginal power, and call attention to some analytic tendencies and implicit assumptions featured inthis discourse.
ASIA PACIFIC REGIONALISM: TENTATIVE THOUGHTS ON CONCEPTUAL BASIS AND EMPIRICAL LINKAGES
Chan, Steve The Institute of East and West Studies 1999 Global economic review Vol.28 No.2
Drawing on prior and empirical studies addressing in Asia and elsewhere, the following discussion probes (1) the idea of region, (2) the nature of linkage politics, and (3) the implications of major ongoing trends. it concludes by offering (4) some conflicting hypotheses about cooperation in Northeast Asia and APEC. the evidentiary basis for this discussion is quite modest and serves only to illustrate the necessity of more systematic research. Attention goes to broad pattern recognition and hypothesis generation rather than idiosyncratic explanations or unique claims about Asia Pacific or Northeast Asian developments.
Defense Allocation, Inflation, and Unemployment in South Korea and Taiwan: A Granger Analysis
( Steve Chan ),( David R Davis ) 한국국방연구원 1991 The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis Vol.3 No.2
There has been much concern in the relevant literature about the possible deleterious economic effects of large military expenditures. This concern seems justified in view of the recent economic collapse of the Soviet Union, and the declining industrial and commercial competitiveness of the United States. Thus, for example, it has been argued that a heavy defense burden can have economic conse-quences such as inflation and unemployment. However, it also seems to be the case that the conditions of a country`s political economy can affect decisions regarding the level and nature of resources devoted to the military sector. Therefore, the relationship between defense burden and economic performance may well be characterized by reciprocal influences. This paper studies the interactions among the defense and eco-nomic variables in two newiy-industrializing Asian countries: South Korea and Taiwan. These two countries have arguably the most successful economies in the developing world. At the same time, they have borne a much heavier defense burden than other devel-oping countries. Thus, South Korea and Taiwan seem to have escaped the cross-national tendency for defense spending to under- mine economic performance. Their apparent achievement of suc- cessfully combining the pursuit of security and growth makes these Asian cases especially interesting for policy as well as theoretical reasons. We apply vector auto regression to time series data from South Korea and Taiwan in order to determine the existence and, if so, the extent of Granger causality involved. This method has become increasingly popular among political scientists and economists for exploring the possible reciprocal relationships in the overtime inter- actions of variables. In this study we use it to examine the relation- ships between South Korea`s and Taiwan`s allocations of defense manpower and dollars on the one hand, and their unemployment and inflation rates on the other. With one exception in the South Korean case, our results fail to indicate direct and simple causal connections between these variables during the time period ana-lyzed, thereby suggesting that these two newly-industrializing East Asian countries have been largely successful in dampening the negative economic consequences of a comparatively heavy defense burden. Future research should attempt to determine whether de- fense allocations have indirect costs for the economy and should search for the policy as well as structural reasons that account for the relatively successful performance of South Korea and Taiwan in combining "guns" and "butter."