Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

아세틸 콜린 유발 검사시 허혈성 심전도 변화와 흉통의 발생이 내피세포 기능장애에 미치는 영향

최철웅(Cheol Ung Choi),나승운(Seung-Woon Rha),김선원(Sun Won Kim),나진오(Jin Oh Na),임홍의(Hong Euy Lim),김진원(Jin Won Kim),김응주(Eung Ju Kim),한성우(Seong Woo Han),박창규(Chang Gyu Park),서홍석(Hong Seog Seo),오동주(Dong Joo Oh) 대한임상노인의학회 2010 대한임상노인의학회지 Vol.11 No.4

연구배경: 아세틸 콜린 유발 검사시 발생하는 흉통과 허혈성 심전도 변화가 아세틸 콜린에 의해 발생하는 관상동맥의 내피세포 기능에 어떤 영향을 주는지 알아보고자 했다. 방법: 흉통으로 내원하여 관상동맥 조영술과 아세틸 콜린 유발검사를 시행받은 1,085명의 환자를 대상으로 하였다. 아세틸 콜린 유발 검사를 하는 동안 허혈성 심전도 변화 및 흉통의 발생 유무에 따른 관상동맥 내피세포 기능의 특징을 비교하였다. 결과: 539명의 환자에서 아세틸 콜린 검사시 내피세포 기능 장애가 발생 하였다. 허혈성 심전도 변화가 있었던 그룹이 심전도 변화가 없었던 그룹보다 흉통이 더 많았고(78.1% vs. 60.8%, P=0.007), 관상동맥 조영술상 다발성 관상동맥 경련이 빈번하였고(59.4% vs. 40.6%, P=0.004), 관상동맥의 경련 정도도 더 심하였다(64.1% vs. 46.5%, P=0.006). 흉통이 있었던 그룹이 흉통이 없었던 그룹보다 허혈성 심전도 변화의 빈도가 더 높았다(14.7% vs. 7.5%, P=0.007). 또한 흉통이 있었던 그룹이 관상동맥 경련이 다발성으로 발생하는 경우가 많았고 (50.7% vs. 29.5%, P<0.001), 미만성으로 발생하는 경우가 많았고(87.1% vs. 75%, P<0.001), 관상동맥의 경련의 정도도 더 심하였다(51.6% vs. 43.5%, P=0.041). 결론: 아세틸 콜린 유발검사시 발생하는 허혈성 심전도 변화와 흉통은 관상동맥 경련의 정도와 경련이 발생하는 관상동맥 개수와 연관이 있다. Background: ECG changes and chest pain during acetylcholine (Ach) provocation tests may constitute important clinical parameters for Ach-induced endothelial dysfunction. We investigated the association between ischemic ECG changes and chest pain during the Ach-provocation test and angiographic characteristics of Ach-induced endothelial dysfunction. Methods: A total of 1,085 patients with anginal symptoms underwent diagnostic coronary angiography (CAG) and Ach-provocation tests. We compared angiographic characteristics of Ach-induced endothelial dysfunction according to the presence of ECG change and chest pain. Results: A total of 539 patients experienced Ach-induced endothelial dysfunction. Patients who experienced ECG change group suffered more frequent chest pain (78.1% vs. 60.8%, P=0.007), angiographically more frequent multiple coronary artery spasm (59.4% vs. 40.6%, P=0.004), and more severe coronary artery spasm (64.1% vs. 46.5%, P=0.006) than patients without ECG change. However, there was no difference in the length of endothelial dysfunction between the groups. The incidence of ischemic ECG changes in patients with chest pain was higher than in patients without chest pain (14.7% vs. 7.5%, P=0.007). Patients who experienced chest pain more often experienced multiple (50.7% vs. 29.5%, P<0.001), diffuse (87.1% vs. 75%, P<0.001), and severe coronary artery spasm (51.6% vs. 43.5%, P=0.041) than patients without chest pain. Conclusion: Ischemic ECG changes and chest pain during the Ach-provocation test are associated with multi-vessel involvement and severe coronary artery spasm. Chest pain is associated with the length of endothelial dysfunction, but ischemic ECG change is not.

Systematic Review of Reciprocal Changes after Spinal Reconstruction Surgery : Do Not Miss the Forest for the Trees

Kim, Chang-Wook,Hyun, Seung-Jae,Kim, Ki-Jeong The Korean Neurosurgical Society 2021 Journal of Korean neurosurgical society Vol.64 No.6

The purpose of this review was to synthesize the research on global spinal alignment and reciprocal changes following cervical or thoracolumbar reconstruction surgery. We carried out a search of PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library for studies through May 2020, and ultimately included 11 articles. The optimal goal of a truly balanced spine is to maintain the head over the femoral heads. When spinal imbalance occurs, the human body reacts through various compensatory mechanisms to maintain the head over the pelvis and to retain a horizontal gaze. Historically, deformity correction has focused on correcting scoliosis and preventing scoliotic curve progression. Following substantial correction of a spinal deformity, reciprocal changes take place in the flexible segments proximal and distal to the area of correction. Restoration of lumbar lordosis following surgery to correct a thoracolumbar deformity induces reciprocal changes in T1 slope, cervical lordosis, pelvic shift, and lower extremity parameters. Patients with cervical kyphosis exhibit different patterns of reciprocal changes depending on whether they have head-balanced or trunk-balanced kyphosis. These reciprocal changes should be considered to in order to prevent secondary spine disorders. We emphasize the importance of evaluating the global spinal alignment to assess postoperative changes.

Rat의 복강내에 투여한 5-fluorouracil-polyglycolic acid 제형이 장기에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

강대영,송규상,최정목,노승무,정경수,오정연,김진향,양준묵,최선웅,이진호,조준식,민병무,김용백,김창식,박근성,김승영,김학용,인현빈 충남대학교 의과대학 지역사회의학연구소 1998 충남의대잡지 Vol.25 No.1

For more effective intraperitoneal chemotherapy, the authers made 5-fluorouracil-polyglycolic acid composite disks(FU-PGA disks) with 5-fluorouracil and polyglycolic acid, a biodegradable polymer. We inserted the FU-PGA disk into the peritoneal cavites of Sprague-Dawley male rats, the control and three experimental groups; one FU-PGA disk insert group(300mg/kg), two FU-PGA disk insert group(600mg/kg), and three FU-PGA disk insert group(900mg/kg). The control group received a similar number of PGA disk inserts. A pharmacokinetic study was performed to measure the 5-fluorouracil concentration in the peritoneal fluid, blood, and tissues(liver, kidney and heart) at 24 hours, 72hours and 168 hours after insertion of the FU-PGA disk. Light and electron microscopic studies were done. The results were as follows: 1) The number of white blood cells and platelets decreased after FU-PGA insertion. The degree was proportional to the duration and amounts inserted. The change in the number of red blood cells varied slightly. 2) Light microscopically, slight changes were noted at 168 hours in the 3 disk insert group (900mg/kg). Mild fatty change and hepatocyte degeneration around the central veins of the liver were noted, with vacuolar degeneration in the proximal convoluted tubules of the kidney. 3) Electron microscopically,the liver showed focal increases of lipid droplets in the hepatocytes, and irregular nuclear membrane with focal nucleolar segregation of the fibrillar and granular elements. Also the double membranous structure of the hepatocytes and Kupffer cells was widened with bleb formation. The kidney showed wide separation of the nuclear double membrane in the proximal convoluted tubular cells and mesangial cells, with vacuolation and myelin figure formation in the mitochondria of the proximal convoluted tubular cells, at 72 hours and 168 hours in the 2 to 3 FU-PGA insert groups. The heart showed focal loss of cristae,vacuolation and myelin figure formation in the mitochondria of the 2 to 3 FU-PGA insert groups. In conclusion, despite the large amont of FU-PGA inserted, the histopathological changes in the liver, kidney and heart were slight, and consonant with the very low amount of 5-fluorouracil concentrations detected in the liver, kidney and heart. The above results suggest that the FU-PGA composite can serve as a new device for releasing drugs in a controlled manner and easily targeted to intraperitoneal organs. This device can improve the efficacy of intraperitoneal chemotherapy for gastric cancer.

정신분열병에 대한 리스페리돈의 효과 및 안정성

이민수,김용구,김영훈,연병길,오병훈,윤도준,윤진상,이철,정희연,강병조,김광수,김동언,김명정,김상훈,김희철,나철,노승호,민경준,박기창,박두병,백기청,백인호,손봉기,손진욱,양병환,양창국,우행원,이정호,이종범,이홍식,임기영,전태연,정영조,정영철,정인과,정인원,지익성,채정호,한상익,한선호,한진희,서광윤 大韓神經精神醫學會 1998 신경정신의학 Vol.37 No.1

연구목적 : 본 시험의 목적은 임상시험 시작전에 연구자들을 대상으로 PANSS Workshop을 통하여 PANSS, ESRS에 대한 국내에서의 표준화 작업을 구축하고 새로운 정신병 치료제인 리스페리돈의 효과와 안정성을 재확인하여 리스페리돈 사용에 대한 적정화를 이루는데 있다. 연구방법 : 1996년 4월부터 1996년 9월까지 국내 39개 대학병원 정신과에 입원중인 혹은 증상이 악화되어 입원하는 정신분열병 환자 377명을 대상으로 다시설 개방 연구를 시행하였다. 1주일간의 약물 배설기간을 가진후, 리스페리돈을 8주간 투여하였고, 기준점, 1주, 2주, 4주, 그리고 8주후에 평가되었다. 용량은 제1일에는 리스페리돈 1mg씩 1일 2회, 제2일에는 2mg씩 1일 2회, 제3∼7일에는 3mg씩 1일 2회 투여하였다. 이후 환자의 임상상태에 따라 임의로 증량할 수 있으며, 최대 일일 16mg을 초과하지 않도록 하였다. 추체외로 증상을 조절하기 위한 투약을 허용하였다. 임상증상 및 부작용의 평가는 PANSS(Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale), CGI(Clinical Global Impression) 그리고 ESRS(Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale)을 사용하였다. 연구결과 : 377명중 343명(91%)이 8주간의 연구를 완결하였다. 치료 종결시점인 8주후 PANSS 총점수가 20% 이상 호전된 경우를 약물 반응군으로 정의할때, 약물반응군은 81.3%였다. 리스페리돈에 반응하는 예측인자로는 발병연령, 이전의 입원 횟수, 유병기간이 관련 있었다. 리스페리돈은 1주후부터 PANSS양성, 음성, 및 일반정신병리 점수상에 유의한 호전을 보여 효과가 빨랐다. CGI의 경우도 기준점에 비해 1주후부터 유의한 감소를 나타내었다. ESRS의 경우, 파킨슨 평가점수는 기준점과 비교해 투여 1주, 2주, 4주후 유의하게 증가되었다가 8주후 기준점과 차이가 없었다. Dystonia 평가점수는 1주후만 유의한 증가를 보였으며, dyskinesia 평가점수는 유의한 차이가 없었다. 혈압, 맥박수의 생명징후 및 일반 혈액학 검사, 생화학적 검사, 심전도 검사에서 유의한 변화는 없었다. 결 론 : 이상의 다시설 개방 임상 연구를 통해 리스페리돈은 정신분열병 환자에서 양성증상뿐만 아니라 음성증상 및 전반적인 증상에도 효과적인 것으로 사료된다. 보다 명확한 평가를 위해서는 다른 항정신병약물과의 이중맹검 연구가 필요할 것으로 생각되며, 또한 장기적 치료에 대한 평가도 함께 이루어져야 하겠다. Objective : The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of risperidone in the treatment of Korean schizophrenic patients. Method : This multicenter open study included 377 schizophrenic patients drawn from 39 university hospitals. After a wash-out period of 1 week, the schizophrenic patients were treated with risperidone for 8 weeks and evaluated at 5 points ; at baseline, and 1, 2, 4 and 8 weeks of treatment. The dose was increased from 2mg/day(1mg twice daily) to 6mg/day(3mg twice daily) during the first week and adjusted to a maximum of 16mg/day over the next 7 weeks according to the patient's clinical response. Medication to control extrapyramidal symptoms was permitted. The psychiatric and neurological status of the patients was assessed by PANSS, CGI, and ESRS scales. Results : 343(91%) of 377 patients completed the 8-week trial period. Clinical improvement, as defined by a 20% or more reduction in total PANSS score at end point, was shown by 81.3% of patients. The predictors of response to risperidone were associated older age, shorter duration of illness, fewer previous hospitalization. Risperidone had rapid onset of action ; a significant decrease of the total PANSS and three PANSS factor(positive, negative, general), and CGI was already noticed at the end of first week. For the ESRS, parkinsonism rating scores were significantly increased until week 4 comparing with baseline. Dystonia rating scores were significantly increased until week 1, and dyskinesia rating scores were not significantly changed during the study. Laboratory parameters including vital sign, EKG, hematological, and biochemical values showed no significant changes during the trial. Conclusions : This study suggests that risperidone is generally safe and effective against both the positive and negative symptoms in our group of patients.

感染性 疾患의 臨床疫學的 硏究

張友鉉,朴熙明,金漢壽,李承薰 現代醫學社 1969 現代醫學 Vol.10 No.4

The advancement of modern medicine, particularly the application of effective chemotherapeutics and preventive measures, have brought significant changes on the ecological aspect of microbial diseases of man. It was thought worthwhile to study the recent trends and present status of microbial infections in this country. Thus, the relative incidences and their etiological relationships of bacterial species, the pattern of drug sensitivities among the strains, and also the cases diagnosed by the serological methods were studied for the patients of SNU Hospital from January 1963 to December 1967. The results might be summarized as follows; 1. Relationships between bacteria and diseases (1) The species and their relative incidences of bacteria, isolated from various abscess, were α-hemolytic streptococcus 26.6%, Staphyloccus aureus 22.6%, paracolon bacilli 9.9%, coliform bacilli 8.1%, Klebsiella pneumoniae 7.6%, E. coil 6.9%, β-hemolytic streptococcus 5.9%. Staphylococcus albus 3.8%. Proteus 3.8%. Alkaligenes fecalis 2.1%, Diplococcus pneumoniae 1.8% and Pseudomonas aeruginosa 1.6%. (2) The species and their relative incidences of bacteria, isolated from the pyelonephritis cases, were E. coli, 39.5%, coliform bacilli 13.5%, Pseudomonas aeruginosa 9.3%, Proteus 7.4%, Staphylococcus albus 4.6%, α-hemolytic streptococcus 4.6%, Staphylococcus aureus 2.8%, Klebsiella pnemoniae 2.8%, and Alkaligenes fecalis 2.8%. (3) The species and their relative incidences of bacteria, isolated from the osteomyelitis cases, were Staphylococcus aureus 46.5%, β-hemolytic streptococcus 12%, Staphyococcus albus 12%, coliform bacilli 6.9%, α-hemolytic streptococcus 6.9%, paracolon bacilli 5.2% and E. coli 3.5%. (4) The species and their relative incidences of bacteria, isolated from the surgical infections were Staphylococcus aureus 33%, E. coli 15.1%, coliform bacilli 11.6%, Pseudomonas aeruginosa 10.7%, paracolon bacilli 9.8%, Proteus 7.1%, α-hemolytic streptococcus 3.5%, Klebsiella pneumoniae 2.7%, and Alkaligenes fecalis 0.9%. (5) The species and their relative incidences of bacteria, isolated from the pneumonia cases, were Diplococcus pneumoniae 14.4%, Klebsiella pneumoniae 9.6%, Staphylococcus aureus 10.3%, β-hemolytic streptococcus 4.8%, paracolon bacilli 4.8%, E. coli 3.4%, coliform bacilli 3.4%, α-hemolytic streptococcus 34.6% and Staphylococcus albus 13.6%. (6) 44 strains of Salmonella group D were isolated. (7) 207 cases of Salmonella typhosa infections, 39 cases of Salmonella paratyphi A infer ctions and 20 cases of Salmonella paratyphi B infections were diagnosed by Widal. Reactions. (8) No significant change in the yearly pattern between the bacterial species isolated and clinical cases was noticed. 2. Drug-sensitivities of the bacterial strains. (1) Percentage of Staphylococcus aureus strains sensitive to streptomycin, chloramphenicol. Or terramycin appeared to have fluctuated by year. Percentages of the strains sensitive to penicillin, erythromycin albamycin, and kanamycin were 25%, 85%, 99% and 99% respectively, without significant change by year. (2) Perentage of E. coil strain's sensitive to streptomycin, erythromycin, chloramphenicol albamycin and kanamycin were 30%, 9% 70%, and 70% respectively, without significant change by year. Percentage of the strains sensitive to terramjcin decreased from 33.3% in 1963 to 11.6% in 1967 to kanamycin increased from 72% in 1963 to 82% in 1967. None of the strains was sensitive to penicillin. (3) Percentage of proteus strains sensitive to penicillin, terramycin, streptomycin and chloramphenicol were 5%, 3%, 36% and 39%, respectively, without significant change by year. Percentage of the strains sensitive to albamycin decreased from 72.5% in 1963 to 50% in 1967 and to kaiiainycin increased from 72% in 1963 to 82% in 1967. None of the strain was sensitive to erythromycin. (4) Percentage of Pseudomonas strains sensitive to penicillin, streptomycin chloramphenicol, terramycin, erythromycin, albamycin and kanamycin were wider 20% (5) Percentage of coliform bacilli strains sensitive to penicillin, streptomycin, chloramn henicol, terramycin, erythromycin and albamycin were 10%, 24%, 28%, 20% and 10% respectively, without significant change by year. Percentage of the strains sensitive to albamycin appeared to have fluctuated by year. The strains sensitive to kanamycin decreased from 80% in 1963 to 56% in 1967. (6) Pereeentage of paracolon bacilli sensitive to penicillin, streptomycin, chloramphenicol, terrahiycin, erythromycin, kanamycin and albamycin were 3%, 27%, 33%, 20%, 8%, 80% and 65% respectively, without significant change by year.

첨가제를 첨가한 TMA-포접화합물의 상변화에 관한 실험적 연구

김진흥,정낙규,김창오,박호진,강승현,김광일 朝鮮大學校 機械技術硏究所 2002 機械技術硏究 Vol.5 No.2

The purpose of this study is to investigate the propriety of TMA clathrate as a cold storage medium. Particularly, this is to examine the extent of subcooling improvement when the surfactants are added to the TMA clathrate, because water used cold storage material has low phase change temperature and subcooling. this study has been analysed and compared with TMA 30wt% clathrate how phase change temperature, subcooling and specific heat in the various concentrations are changed. This results view to be improved phase change temperature and subcooling of TMA30wt% as a cold storage medium, when it had some surfactant. Additionally, it is that surfactant must be controlled under available solution limit and study for new additive must be lasted to know its effect.

Surgical Causes of Significant Intraoperative Neuromonitoring Signal Changes in Three-Column Spinal Surgery

Wi Seung Myung,Park Sang-Min,Chang Sam Yeol,Lee Jeongik,Kim Sung-Min,장봉순,Kim Hyoungmin 대한척추외과학회 2021 Asian Spine Journal Vol.15 No.6

Study Design: Retrospective case series. Purpose: To evaluate the risks and causes of neurologic complications in three-column spinal surgery by analyzing intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) data. Overview of Literature: Three-column spinal surgery, which may be required to correct complex spinal deformities or resection of spinal tumors, is known to carry a high risk of neurologic complications. However, few studies reported a specific surgical procedure related to a significant IONM signal change during surgery. Methods: Multimodality IONM data, including somatosensory-evoked potentials (SSEP) and motor-evoked potentials (MEP), were reviewed in 64 patients who underwent three-column spinal surgery from 2011 to 2015. Surgical procedures included posterior vertebral column resection, pedicle subtraction osteotomy, total en bloc spondylectomy, piecemeal spondylectomy, and corpectomy with laminectomy (n=27) in three cervical, 34 thoracic, and 31 lumbar procedures. Results: Significant IONM signal changes occurred in 11 of 64 (17.1%) patients. SSEP and MEP were changed in 11 patients. Postoperative neurologic deterioration occurred in 54.5% (6 of 11) of the patients, and two of them were permanent. There was no postoperative neurologic deterioration in patients without significant signal change. Suspected causes of IONM data changes are as follows: adhesion/tethering, translation, contusion, and perfusion. Conclusions: Based on the results of this study, to enhance neurologic safety in three-column spinal surgery, surgeons should pay attention to protect the spinal cord from mechanical insult, especially when the spinal column was totally destabilized during surgery, and not to compromise perfusion to the spinal cord in close cooperation with a neurologist and anesthesiologist.

특허 분석을 통한 건설 기술 연구 기획

김창윤(Kim Chang-Yoon),김형관(Kim Hyoung-Kwan),김창완(Kim Chang-Wan),한승헌(Han Seung-Heon),김문겸(Kim Moon-Kyum) 대한건축학회 2008 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.24 No.12

Diverse research efforts that have been conducted are reflected in the patent information. Patent analysis facilitates the understanding of the major technological area and how the technologies change. It provides the essential data for strategy development of research and development. In this paper, based on literature analysis and expert review, 40 keywords had been selected for searching advanced construction patents. 737 patents of US, EU, and Japan during January 1991 and May 2006 are analyzed. Technology trends of each phase of construction lifecycle are derived through the patent data and patent map analysis. Construction research and development strategies are deduced based on the patent analysis. This research effort suggests a systematic methodology for how patent information is incorporated into new construction research and development plans.

RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 소나무림과 굴참나무림의 산림 탄소 동태 변화 추정 연구

이종열 ( Jong Yeol Lee ),한승현 ( Seung Hyun Han ),김성준 ( Seong Jun Kim ),장한나 ( Han Na Chang ),이명종 ( Myong Jong Yi ),박관수 ( Gwan Soo Park ),김춘식 ( Choon Sig Kim ),손영모 ( Yeong Mo Son ),김래현 ( Rae Hyun Kim ),손요환 한국농림기상학회 2015 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.17 No.1

산림은 많은 양의 탄소를 저장하고 있으며, 산림 탄소 동태는 기후변화에 따라 변화할 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구는 우리나라 산림에서 가장 우점하는 침엽수종과 활엽수종인 소나무림과 참나무림을 대상으로 최근 개발 및 개선된 한국형산림토양탄소모델(Korean ForestSoil Carbon model; KFSC model)을 이용하여 두 가지 기후변화 시나리오(2012년 기온이 2100년까지 유지되는 시나리오(CT), Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 8.5 시나리오) 하에서의 산림 탄소 동태를 예측하였다. 5차 국가산림자원조사 자료로부터 소나무림과 굴참나무림 조사구들을 추출한 뒤, 이를 행정구역(9개 도, 7개 특별·광역시) 및 영급(1-5영급, 6영급이상)별로 분류하여 탄소 동태 모의 단위를 설정하였다. 탄소 저장고는 2012년을 기준으로 초기화하였으며, 모의 기간인 2012년부터 2100년까지 모든 교란은 고려하지 않았다. 모의 결과 산림 탄소 저장량은 시간이 경과함에 따라 전반적으로 증가하지만, CT 시나리오에 비하여 RCP 8.5 시나리오 하에서 산림 탄소 저장량이 낮게 나타났다. 소나무림의 탄소 저장량(Tg C)은 2012년에 260.4에서 2100년에는 각각 395.3(CT 시나리오) 및 384.1(RCP 8.5 시나리오)로 증가하였다. 굴 참나무림의 탄소 저장량(Tg C)은 2012년에 124.4에서 2100년에는 219.5(CT 시나리오) 및 204.7(RCP 8.5 시나리오)로 각각 증가하였다. 5차 국가산림자원조사 자료와 비교한 결과, 고사유기물 탄소 저장량의 초기값은 타당한 것으로 나타났다. 모의 기간 동안 소나무림과 굴참나무림의 연간 탄소 흡수율(g C m-2 yr-1)은 CT 시나리오 하에서 각각 71.1과 193.5, RCP8.5 시나리오 하에서 각각 65.8과 164.2로 추정된다. 따라서 우리나라 소나무림과 굴참나무림의 탄소 흡수잠재력은 지구 온난화에 의하여 감소할 것으로 예상된다. 비록 모델의 구조와 파라미터로부터 불확실성이 존재하지만 본 연구는 미래 산림 탄소 동태 파악에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. Forests contain a huge amount of carbon (C) and climate change could affect forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the C dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis forests, which are the most dominant needleleaf and broadleaf forests in Korea, using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the two climate change scenarios (2012-2100; Constant Temperature (CT) scenario and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario). To construct simulation unit, the forest land areas for those two species in the 5th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data were sorted by administrative district and stand age class. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and any disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. Although the forest C stocks of two species generally increased over time, the forest C stocks under the RCP 8.5 scenario were less than those stocks under the CT scenario. The C stocks of P. densiflora forests increased from 260.4 Tg C in 2012 to 395.3 (CT scenario) or 384.1 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For Q. variabilis forests, the C stocks increased from 124.4 Tg C in 2012 to 219.5 (CT scenario) or 204.7 (RCP 8.5 scenario) Tg C in 2100. Compared to 5th NFI data, the initial value of C stocks in dead organic matter C pools seemed valid. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of the two species over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (65.8 and 164.2 g C m-2 yr-1 for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (71.1 and 193.5 g C m-2 yr-1 for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis). We concluded that the C sequestration potential of P. densiflora and Q. variabilis forests could be decreased by climate change. Although there were uncertainties from parameters and model structure, this study could contribute to elucidating the C dynamics of South Korean forests in future.