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Robustness of Cash Flow Value: Investment in ASEAN
Wei Theng LAU,Fauziah Binti MAHAT 한국유통과학회 2019 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.6 No.2
This study examines the different roles of cash flow in assessing investment returns in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The analysis covers over 900 listed firms across Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand for the period post the Asian financial crisis of 2001-2017. Firm-level panel data analysis shows that cash flow factors are important in all contexts of cash return on assets, earnings quality and market value multiple across the region even after controlling for typical measures of profitability. The results suggest that firms should manage cash flow prudently in considerations of firm value from the shareholder’s perspective, measured directly using stock return. Cash profitability on assets should become an important firm performance indicator, whilst higher cash component over reported earnings is preferred. The market also tends to respond favourably to cash flow yield as a price multiple in valuation, outpacing the role of earnings yield. Such findings are robust across the pre and post subprime crisis periods, across estimation methods pertaining to finance panel standard errors, as well as across static and dynamic considerations of returns. It is hence sensible to consider cash flow factors in the research pertaining to asset pricing and factor investing in the ASEAN region.
Forecasting Volatility of Stocks Return: A Smooth Transition Combining Forecasts
HO, Jen Sim,CHOO, Wei Chong,LAU, Wei Theng,YEE, Choy Leng,ZHANG, Yuruixian,WAN, Cheong Kin Korea Distribution Science Association 2022 The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Busine Vol.9 No.10
This paper empirically explores the predicting ability of the newly proposed smooth transition (ST) time-varying combining forecast methods. The proposed method allows the "weight" of combining forecasts to change gradually over time through its unique feature of transition variables. Stock market returns from 7 countries were applied to Ad Hoc models, the well-known Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models, and the Smooth Transition Exponential Smoothing (STES) models. Of the individual models, GJRGARCH and STES-E&AE emerged as the best models and thereby were chosen for constructing the combined forecast models where a total of nine ST combining methods were developed. The robustness of the ST combining forecasts is also validated by the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. The post-sample forecasting performance shows that ST combining forecast methods outperformed all the individual models and fixed weight combining models. This study contributes in two ways: 1) the ST combining methods statistically outperformed all the individual forecast methods and the existing traditional combining methods using simple averaging and Bates & Granger method. 2) trading volume as a transition variable in ST methods was superior to other individual models as well as the ST models with single sign or size of past shocks as transition variables.
Chee-Hong Law,Chee-Lip Tee,Lau, Wei-Theng 한국국제경제학회 2019 International Economic Journal Vol.33 No.2
This paper investigates the short-run and long-run effects of financial integration on the dynamics between monetary independence and foreign exchange reserves using a GMM system estimation involving two-year non-overlapping average data (2000-2011) from 114 countries. The results indicate that the effect of foreign exchange reserves on the monetary independence is intensified by the level of financial integration. This suggests a positive spill over effect from the financial integration to the monetary policy independence. Besides, a positive implication of financial integration on monetary independence could be established when the foreign exchange reserves is at the maximum level. In addition, the comparisons between the mean of foreign exchange reserves and the threshold levels of foreign exchange reserves that neutralise the impact of financial integration indicate that on average, the foreign exchange reserves are sufficient to offset the effect of financial integration. A stable exchange rate will undermine the positive impact of foreign exchange reserves on monetary independence. Finally, the long-run and short-run impacts occur in the same direction. This paper ends with some policy implications and suggestions for future research.
( Sang Woong Youn ),( Tsen Fang Tsai ),( Colin Theng ),( Siew Eng Choon ),( Benny E. Wiryadi ),( Antonio Pires ),( Wei Hao Tan ),( Min Geol Lee ) 대한피부과학회 2016 Annals of Dermatology Vol.28 No.2
Background: Ustekinumab is a fully human monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of chronic moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis in adults. However, factors including efficacy, tolerability, ease of use, and cost burden may affect ustekinumab utilization. Noncompliance may, in turn, affect treatment response. Objective: To evaluate ustekinumab utilization in the real-world setting in Asia-Pacific countries. Methods: In this phase 4 observational study conducted in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan, adults with plaque psoriasis receiving ustekinumab were followed for up to 52 weeks. Study endpoints were the proportion of all patients using ustekinumab according to label-recommended intervals and the proportion of Korean patients who achieved a psoriasis area severity index 75 response at week 16. Safety was assessed by monitoring adverse events. Results: Overall, 169 patients received ustekinumab (Korea, n=102; other countries, n=67). Just over half (56.2%) of patients used ustekinumab with the label-recommended interval from baseline to week 40; the proportion was higher in Korea (73.5%) than in other countries (29.9%), probably because ustekinumab was provided without charge for Korean patients up to week 40. Noncompliance increased after week 40 in Korea and from week 28 in other Asia-Pacific countries, with cost cited as the most common reason. At week 16, 56.9% of Korean patients achieved a Psoriasis Area Severity Index 75 response. Safety results were in line with those seen in previous studies. Conclusion: More than half of all patients in Asia-Pacific countries used ustekinumab as per the label-recommended dose interval, but reimbursement variations between countries may have confounded overall results.(Ann Dermatol 28(2) 222∼231, 2016)