논문 : 배당의 미래이익 예측력과 외국인투자자

강태구 ( Tae Goo Kang ),이창우 ( Chang Woo Lee ),남혜정 ( Hye Jeong Nam ) 명지대학교 금융지식연구소 2013 금융지식연구 Vol.11 No.3

본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 외국인 투자자들의 지분율에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지 검증하였다. 일반적으로 배당지급은 기업의 미래이익을 예측하는 데 유용한 정보로 여겨지고 있으나, 이에 대한 실증연구결과들은 혼재되어 있다. 또한 배당의사결정과 관련된 연구들은 투자자들의 배당선호현상에 따라 기업의 배당의사결정이 영향을 받고 있음을 제시하고 있으며, 특히 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정에 외국인투자자가 미치는 영향이 매우 높게 나타나고 있다. 이는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구가 높은 경우, 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래이익에 대한 사적정보의 전달수단이기 보다는 단기적으로 배당에 대한 투자자들의 요구를 반영한 결과로 나타날 수 있음을 보여준다. 나아가 이러한 배당의사결정은 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 낮게 만들 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구는 배당의 미래이익 예측력을 재검증하고, 나아가 외국인지분율에 따라 배당의 미래이익예측력이 달라지는지 검증하였다. 먼저, 배당의 미래이익 예측연구들은 자기자본이익률(ROE)의 평균회귀(mean reverting)현상과 배당증가 또는 배당감소가 이익변화에 미치는 비대칭적 영향을 고려하고 있으나, 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 여러 가지 변수들을 통제하지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구는 선행연구에서 제시되고 있는 기업규모(SIZE), 성장성(SGR), 부채비율(LEV), 그리고 연도더미를 추가하여, 이를 통제하고 난 후에도 배당의 미래이익예측력이 여전히 존재하는지 검증하였다. 둘째, 배당의 미래이익 예측력이 기업의 배당의사결정에 영향을 미치는 특정집단에 의하여 달라지는지 검증하였다. 2000년부터 2007년까지 배당지급을 한 6,720 기업-년 표본을 대상으로 분석한 결과, 기본 모형뿐만 아니라 여러 통제변수를 포함한 모형에서도 우리나라 기업들의 배당변화는 미래 1년 뒤의 이익변화와 유의한 양의 관계를 나타냈으나, 미래 2년 뒤의 이익변화와는 유의하지 않았다. 또한 이익변화에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 추가한 모형의 설명력(R2=0.46)이 기본모형의 설명력(R2=0.28)보다 급격히 증가함을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 이러한 관계는 외국인지분율을 통제할 경우, 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 기업의 배당의사결정이 미래전망에 근거하여 이루어지기보다는 특정투자자집단의 배당요구를 반영하는 수단으로 사용되고 있음을 보여준다. 즉 우리나라의 경우, 배당의사결정이 외국인투자자들의 배당요구를 반영하여 이루어짐을 알 수 있다. 본 연구는 대부분의 선행연구들이 외국인투자자와 배당성향간의 동시적인 관계에 대한 결과들을 제시한 반면에, 외국인투자자가 우리나라 기업들의 배당의사결정에 미치는 영향과 함께 배당의 미래이익예측력의 관점에서 살펴보았다는 점에 의의가 있다. This paper investigates whether the dividend payout predicts future earnings and the predictability varies depending on the proportion of investors. Specifically, this paper examines the effect of foreign investors on the relationship between dividend change and the predictability of future earnings in Korean firms. Reasoning from the hypothesis that dividend changes convey new information about a firm`s future profitability, a dividend increase is seen as a positive signal about the firm`s future earnings and profitability. However, the results from prior studies are controversial. Some papers have suggested that dividend changes would mean different things depending on a firm`s dividend policy and the motives behind its managers` decision to pay dividends. In addition, a firm`s governance is considered as one of important factors that affects dividend policy. In the Korean security market, foreign investors owned about 38% of the stock in 2007. As the percentage of foreign ownership had grown, many researchers have analyzed the effect of this ownership on dividend policy. However, prior studies found mixed results and have focused on the association between foreign investors and the level of the dividend or dividend change. They also suggest that predictability of dividend on future earnings is influenced by applied assumption on earnings and other factors like governance as well. We revisit the dividend signaling issue in the light of the catering theory of dividends suggested by Baker and Wurgler (2004). Lintner (1956) argued that managers unwilling to change payout ratio without any important change on the firm`s future performance. Won and Kim (1992) report that managers are more likely to be concerned about the internal factors such as net income, divisible surplus, predicted future performance, and the shareholders` preference for dividend policy. More importantly, several studies suggest that the foreign investors have a significant effect on the Korean market. Park (2004) reports that foreign investors` participation in firms generally pushes up the dividend payments while pulling down investments made in facilities no matter which industry a company is in. Sul and Kim (2006) show that those companies whose majority shareholders are foreign investors tend to pay higher dividends than others whose majority shareholders are domestic investors. In contrast to negative effect of foreign investor, there are empirical studies claiming positive impact of foreign investor in Korean market. Ahn, Shin, and Chang (2005) suggest that foreign investors prefer firms with lower information asymmetry. The study also shows that foreign investors can effectively monitor the management of firm in lessening information asymmetry. Similarly, Park and Lee (2006) suggest that foreign investors` participation in investment of domestic firms can help them make more efficient management decision by improving their corporate governance. Thus, Park and Lee claim that it is problematic to generalize the negative role of foreign investors in the Korean market. Based on this argument, we predict that if foreign investors play an effective monitoring role in a dividend policy, dividend change for firms with higher level of foreign investors is a good indicator in predicting future earnings than for firms with lower level of foreign investors. However, if foreign investors play a negative role in dividend decision process, predictability of dividend decreases. We test this prediction by using the modified model with several control variables that can affect earnings changes. Using 6,720 observations from 1993 to 2007, we find that the dividend change predicts future earnings for next one year relative to the dividend change year. Specifically, the coefficient on RDIV is 0.045 (t=6.85) and this indicates the dividend increases is a good indicator in predicting future earnings. When it comes to model specification, adjusted R2 of modified model is greater than that of the basic model, which means that the modified model is well specified in explaining earnings changes. The result of the effect of foreign investors on predictability of dividend is not significant. This finding implies that managers, on average, decide to pay dividend as a response to demand from foreign investors.

중동의 상황 변화와 선교적 적용

장훈태(Chang, Hoon Tae) 한국기독교학회 선교신학회 2011 선교신학 Vol.28 No.-

This article aims to offer the changing and missional response to the Middle East from social, cultural, and religious perspectives. The paper explains causes of Jasmine Revolution; such as lack needs of human being, reject about absolute power, and social network. Consequently, Jasmine Revolution came out democracy in the Middle East countries, and social participation and change of women. In this countries, the role of women in the great upheaval in the Middle East has been woefully under-analysed. Women in Egypt did not just join the protests - they were a leading force behind the cultural evolution that made the protests inevitable. And what is true for Egypt is true, to a greater and lesser extent, throughout the Arab world. When women change, everything changes, and women in the Muslim world are changing radically. I think that Christians mission forms in the Middle East, As an indigenous community their displacement would cause a fundamental change to the identity of the region and its future development. Their contribution to the civilization society, trust and position of Islam women is immense changing. Thus, the Christian mission should be introduce being of Jesus Christ and the spirit of God. I now have a clearer contemporary perspective on Christianity mission in the Middle East. While many Christian mission can do appreciate the consideration of the Middle East, in the place where Christianity originated, it is tried to Muslim people.

Brain Topological Correlates of Motor Performance Changes After Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

Park, Chang-hyun,Chang, Won Hyuk,Yoo, Woo-Kyoung,Shin, Yong-Il,Kim, Sung Tae,Kim, Yun-Hee Mary Ann Liebert 2014 Brain connectivity Vol.4 No.4

<P>Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) influences the brain temporally beyond the stimulation period and spatially beyond the stimulation site. Application of rTMS over the primary motor cortex (M1) has been shown to lead to plastic changes in interregional connectivity over the motor system as well as alterations in motor performance. With a sequential combination of rTMS over the M1 and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we sought changes in the topology of brain networks and specifically the association of brain topological changes with motor performance changes. In a sham-controlled parallel group experimental design, real or sham rTMS was administered to each of the 15 healthy subjects without prior motor-related dysfunctions, over the right M1 at a high frequency of 10 Hz. Before and after the intervention, fMRI data were acquired during a sequential finger motor task using the left, nondominant hand. Changes in the topology of brain networks were assessed in terms of global and local efficiency, which measures the efficiency in transporting information at global and local scales, respectively, provided by graph-theoretical analysis. Greater motor performance changes toward improvements after real rTMS were shown in individuals who exhibited more increases in global efficiency and more decreases in local efficiency. The enhancement of motor performance after rTMS is supposed to be associated with brain topological changes, such that global information exchange is facilitated, while local information exchange is restricted.</P>

Effect of Total Hip Arthroplasty on Ipsilateral Lower Limb Alignment and Knee Joint Space Width: Minimum 5-Year Follow-up

Choi Yun Seong,Park Jung-Wee,Kim Tae Woo,Kang Kee Soo,Lee Young-Kyun,Koo Kyung-Hoi,Chang Chong Bum 대한의학회 2023 Journal of Korean medical science Vol.38 No.20

Background: This study aimed to 1) assess the effect of total hip arthroplasty (THA) on coronal limb alignment, namely, the hip–knee–ankle angle (HKA), 2) identify factors that determine changes in the HKA, and 3) determine whether alignment changes influence the knee joint space width. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 266 limbs of patients who underwent THA. Three types of prostheses with neck shaft angles (NSAs) of 132°, 135°, and 138° were used. Several radiographic parameters were measured in the preoperative and final radiographs (at least 5 years after THA). A paired t-test was used to confirm the effect of THA on HKA change. Multiple regression analysis was performed to identify radiographic parameters related to HKA changes following THA and changes in knee joint space width. Subgroup analyses were performed to reveal the effect of NSA change on the HKA change, and the proportion of total knee arthroplasty usage and changes in radiographic parameters between maintained joint space and narrowed joint space groups were compared. Results: The preoperative mean HKA was 1.4° varus and increased to 2.7° varus after THA. This change was related to changes in the NSA, lateral distal femoral angle, and femoral bowing angle. In particular, in the group with a decrease in NSA of > 5°, the preoperative mean HKA was largely changed from 1.4° varus to 4.6° varus after THA. The prostheses with NSA of 132° and 135° also led to greater varus HKA changes than those with an NSA of 138°. Narrowing of the medial knee joint space was related to changes in the varus direction of the HKA, decrease in NSA, increase in femoral offset. Conclusion: A large reduction in NSA can lead to considerable varus limb alignment after THA, which can have adverse effects on the medial compartment of the ipsilateral knee.

Long second toe: its nail and skin changes

( Geun-hwi Park ),( Woo-il Kim ),( Min-young Yang ),( Won-ku Lee ),( Tae-wook Kim ),( Sung-min Park ),( Hyun-joo Lee ),( Gun-wook Kim ),( Hoon-soo Kim ),( Hyun-chang Ko ),( Byung-soo Kim ),( Moon-bum 대한피부과학회 2018 대한피부과학회 학술발표대회집 Vol.70 No.2

Background: Nail can be affected by trauma, infection, and systematic disorders. In particular, the toe nails are exposed to the repeated and cumulative minor traumas, which usually result in thickened, splitted, and discolorated nails. Considering these, it can be inferred that the long second toe can be related to various nail and skin changes by repeated minor traumas such as friction in shoes, but the study or report on this topic hasn’t been done yet. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to introduce various nail and skin changes on long second toe. Methods: We analyzed the kinds of nail/skin changes of 50 patients with long second toe, enrolled at Pusan National University Hospitals (Busan and Yangsan) from 2013 to 2018. Results: There was no significant difference in the incidence of left and right toe and toenail, and 7 (14%) patients presented bilateral distribution. The most common nail change on long second toe was melanonychia (23, 46%), followed by subungual hematoma (15, 30%), onycholysis (2, 4%), subungual hyperkeratosis (2, 4%), onychomadesis (1, 2%), and retronychia (1, 2%). The most common skin change was corn (9, 18%), followed by paronychia (2, 4%). Twenty (20/50, 40%) patients also had other toe or toenail changes. Among them, the most common site was big toe/nail (13, 62%), and the most common change was subungual hematoma (8, 42%). Conclusion: Through this study, the dermatologists can recognize and diagnose the nail and skin changes of long second toe.

Causes and Predictive Factors Associated with “Diagnosis Changed” Outcomes in Patients Notified as Tuberculosis Cases in a Private Tertiary Hospital

( Byung Ju Kang ),( Kyung Wook Jo ),( Tai Sun Park ),( Jung Wan Yoo ),( Sei Won Lee ),( Chang Min Choi ),( Yeon Mok Oh ),( Sang Do Lee ),( Woo Sung Kim ),( Dong Soon Kim ),( Tae Sun Shim ) 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 2013 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.75 No.6

Background: The aim of our study was to evaluate the “diagnosis changed” rate in patients notified as tuberculosis (TB) on the Korean TB surveillance system (KTBS). Methods: A total of 1,273 patients notified as TB cases on the KTBS in one private tertiary hospital in 2011 were enrolled in the present study. Patients were classified into three groups: “diagnosis maintained”, “diagnosis changed” (initially notified as TB, but ultimately diagnosed as non-TB), and “administrative error” (notified as TB due to administrative errors). Results: Excluding 17 patients in the “administrative error” group, the “diagnosis maintained” and “diagnosis changed” groups included 1,097 (87.3%) and 159 patients (12.7%), respectively. Common causes of “diagnosis changed” were nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease (51.7%, 61/118), and pneumonia (17.8%) in cases notified as pulmonary TB, and meningitis (19.5%, 8/41) and Crohn`s disease (12.2%) in cases notified as extrapulmonary TB. Being older than 35 years of age (odds ratio [OR], 2.18) and a positive acid-fast bacilli stain (OR, 1.58) were positive predictors and a TB-related radiological finding (OR, 0.42) was a negative predictor for a “diagnosis changed” result via multivariate logistic regression analysis in pulmonary TB cases. Conclusion: Because of a high “diagnosis changed” rate in TB notifications to the KTBS, the TB incidence rate measured by the KTBS may be overestimated. Considering the worldwide trend toward increased NTM disease, the “diagnosis changed” rate may increase over time. Thus, when reporting the annual TB notification rate in Korea, the exclusion of “diagnosis changed” cases is desirable.

튀니지 시민혁명 10주년 이후 국민들의 의식변화에 대한 고찰

장훈태 부산외국어대학교 아프리카연구센터 2021 아프리카학 연구 Vol.1 No.1

In December 2010, the democratization wind of Tunisia which was triggered by burning himself of a young man Muhammad Bouazizi, led the citizens of Tunisia to a successful Jasmine Revolution which resulted in the resignation of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The democratization movement in Tunisia began with high unemployment, poverty, despotism, authoritarianism and dictatorship. After the democratization movement in Tunisia, the nation and the people began to change. At the end of 2010, the wave of civil revolution that began in Tunisia gave courage to those who were oppressed by fear. At the same time it rapidly spread to the Middle East and North Africa and media and citizens from all over the world cheered for them. Their anti-government revolution spread to a wide range of civil movements through the continuation of the strike participation movement, demonstrations, marches and large-scale gatherings as well as organizations and communication through social media and awareness-raising, leading to the resignation of long-term dictatorships and regime change. It came to be called a revolution. Tunisia young people longed for freedom from political and economic poverty, oppression and inequality. Young people deprived of freedom and certain peoples wished for a change in society, and were excited by the anticipation that something would change. However 10 years after the democratization revolution took place in Tunisia, it is difficult to find democracy in Tunisia just as it is hard to find democracy in most countries. Even today Tunisia is facing a very severe economic crisis and the gap between the rich and the poor. In a situation where people’s relative poverty, continued young people unemployment, political unrest and authoritarianism are prevailing. People are voicing that the politics and economy have deteriorated. On the 10th anniversary of the democratization revolution, the task remains whether authoritarianism will be further strengthened in North Africa and other Middle Eastern countries or will the second spring of Tunisia begin? In this situation it is of great significance to study the 10th anniversary of the Tunisian democratization revolution and the Tunisian society in North Africa. This thesis pursues to explore the democratization revolution in Tunisia and the Arab region, the starting point of the revolution and the phenomenon and future of Tunisia after the democratization revolution. Today, Tunisia is not only in international difficulties but also the conflict between tribes within Tunisia, between religious and non-religious forces, between religions and incongruity between settlers and migrants, relative deprivation, patriarchal tribalism and the doctrine of any one religion. These things are seriously intertwined. If a national consensus is reached to overcome this, Tunisia can become a democratic nation that is far more free than predicted and the citizens of Tunisia can enjoy a human life. Currently the world is struggling with COVID-19 but the positive impact of the democratic development of Tunisia’s democratization revolution will brighten the future of Tunisia. [Key words: Tunisian democratization revolution, democracy, consciousness change, economy and poverty, quality of life, party politics]

실험가토의 악관절원판 변위시 후방부착조직의 변화 : A NEW MODEL OF INTERNAL DERANGEMENT IN RABBITS

김태우,고재승,장영일 대한치과교정학회 1993 대한치과교정학회지 Vol.23 No.4

This paper describes a new method to create an animal model for TMJ internal derangement in the New Zealand white rabbits and the light and electron microscopical changes of posterior attachment of them. Twenty six rabbits(2.5-3.0㎏), four normal and twenty two experimental, were used. The right disc of experimental animal was displaced anteriorly without sectioning the posterior attachment and tied to the zygomatic arch with nylon not to be reduced to the original position. The left TMJ was sham-operated to be compared with its right experimental one. Normal animals were sacrificed one day and eight weeks after experiment. Experimental animals were sacrificed one day, ten days, three weeks, five weeks and eight weeks after surgery respectively. They were fixed intravenously with 2% glutaldehyde under general anesthesia and the samples of them were processed for light and electron microscopic examination. The purpose of this experiment is to make a suitable animal model of disc displacement without reduction for studying and understanding the cellular and morphologic events in posterior attachment of TMJ including early changes which were difficult to be observed in human TMJs. The results of this investigation suggest the following conclusions : 1. Authors induced anterior disc displacement surgically in rabbits with new method to examine histologic changes of posterior attachment. Tissue reactions of this model seem to be similar to those observed in human disc displacement. We think this animal model for anterior disc displacement may be used to explore and evaluate objectively the efects of many treatment modalities in disc displacements. 2. The animal disease model showed inflammation at early stage(one and ten days). At this stage there were mild-to-severe mononuclear inflammatory cell infiltration, numerous newly formed vessels, vessel dilatation and engormement and many fibroblasts. 3. At middle stage(three weeks), fibrosis occurred, where fibroblasts decreased in number, but their cytoplasm was profuse indicating high activity. Collagen fibers increased in number and the tissue looked more dense. 4. At late stage(five weeks and eight weeks) showed degenerative changes including perforation of posterior attachment, disintegration of collagen fiber bundles, degeneration of fibroblasts, metastatic ossification, and dystrophic calcification.

조기 천장골염의 자기공명영상 소견

김태환 ( Tae Hwan Kim ),전재범 ( Jae Bum Jun ),심승철 ( Seung Cheol Shim ),장대국 ( Dae Kook Chang ),고회관 ( Hee Kwan Koh ),정성수 ( Sung Soo Jung ),이인홍 ( In Hong Lee ),배상철 ( Sang Cheol Bae ),유대현 ( Dae Hyun Yoo ),전의용 대한류마티스학회 1998 대한류마티스학회지 Vol.5 No.2

목적: 천장골염의 유무가 척추 관절염의 진단에 중요한데 단순 골반 검사에서 변화가 없는 환자를 대상으로 MRI를 이용하여 천장골염의 조기변화 소견 및 MRI방법에 따른 장점을 비교하고자 하였다. 대상 및 방법: 단순 골반 검사에서 천장골염 유무가 확실하게 구분되지 않은 혈청 음성 척추 관절염 환자 26명을 대상으로 MRI를 시행하고 염증의 주침범위치를 천측과 장측, 관절의 상하로 구분하고, MRI방법에 따른 변화를 비교하였다. 결과: 모든 예에서 조영 증강되는 판누스를 관찰할 수 있었고, Grade I 이하에서는 장골측과 관절하부, 인대성 관절보다 활막성 관절을 더 많이 침범하였다. Grade II 이상에서도 장골측과 관절 하부에 더 많았으나 인대성 관절을 Grade I이하에서보다 더 많이 침범하였다. 관절 주변 지방 침착역시 장골측과 관절 하부에 더 주로 침범하였고 Grade II 이상에서 약간 더 많았다. 관절 주변 골염은 Grade 0에서는 없었고, Grade I에서는 주로 장골측과 관절 하부에서 92%가 양성이었고, Grade II에서는 93%에서, Grade III에서는 64%에서 양성으로, 장골측을 주로 침범하였으나 관절 상하부의 구분은 없었다. 인대성 천장골 관절은 Grade I 이하에서 38%, II 이상에서는 94%에서 침범하였다. 관절 주변 골염과 지방 침착, 그리고 판누스의 관찰에는 MPGR보다 스핀에코 영상이 좋았고, 관절면의 불규칙성 또는 관절강의 확대와 관절 강직여부의 관찰에는 스핀에코에 비해 MPGR 영상이 좋았고, 연골하 경화는 비슷하였다. 천장골염의 정도와 ESR, CRP와의 연관성은 없었다. 걸론: 천장골 관절에서 염증의 시작은 주로 장골 측과 관절의 하부에서 먼저 시작되고, 관절이 진행될수록 장골측에서 천골측까지로 범위가 확대 되었다. MRI방법에 의한 차이로 초기단계에는 스핀에코 영상이 관절염을 확인하는데 도움이 되고 관절면이 불규칙하게 되고 경화가 되어 병이 진행된 상태에서는 MPGR영상이 진단에 더 도움이 되었다. 염증성 배부 동통이 있는 경우 단순 골반 검사에서 이상이 없는 환자인 경우에도 MRI 검사를 시행하여 천장골염의 유무를 확인하는 것이 중요하다. Objective: The early detection of sacroiliitis on X-ray is important to diagnose spondyloarthropathy(SpA). The conventional radiography, bone scan, and computer tomogram have the problems of sensitivity, specificity, and side effects. We examined sacroiliitis using MR imaging in patients who had inflammatory back pain, but no definite changes in conventional radiogrphy. Other radiologic techniques were compared in detection of early sacroillitis. Methods: Twenty six patients with SpA were examined. The MRI findings of both sacroiliac joints were evaluated in every patients, such as pannus, periarticular osteitis and fat accumulation, subchondral sclerosis, and joint space changes(irregularity, ankylosis). Also we analyzed the changes of sacroiliac joints in sacroiliitis. Results: The predominant sites of involvement were upper aspect and iliac surface of sacroiliac joint in subchondral sclerosis, lower and iliac in pannus, periarticular fat accumulation, and iliac in periarticular osteitis. The MPGR images were superior to spin echo images in evaluation of joint space changes(irregularity, and ankylosis). Conclusions: Sacroiliitis is initiated in iliac side and lower portion of sacroiliac joints. MRI can detect early changes of sacroiliitis in patients with no conventional radiographic changes. MRI seems to be needed in patients with inflammatory back pain.

아프리카 사회통합의 저해 요인에 대한 함의 -아프리카 과거, 현재, 미래에 대한 고찰-

장훈태(Chang, Hun Tae) 한국아프리카학회 2019 한국아프리카학회지 Vol.58 No.-

아프리카 대륙은 전 세계적으로 천연자원과 인구 모두가 풍부한 대륙이다. 그러나 세계에서 가장 가난한 곳, 기후변화로 인한 고통을 겪는 곳이라는 인상을 지우지 못하고 있다. 역사적으로 아프리카는 숱한 내전과 전쟁 그리고 식민 지배를 겪었고, 이러한 역사로 인해 희망이 사라진 것처럼 보인다. 아프리카 정권의 부패는 점점 더 심해지고 있으며, 국민은 부패로 인해 지쳐 있는 상황이다. 이러한 상황에서 아프리카의 현재 상황에 대한 원인과 아프리카의 미래를 변화시킬 방법에 대해 살펴보고, 이를 토대로 아프리카의 미래에 대해 함의하고자 한다. 아프리카 대륙에는 3천여 개 이상의 종족이 어울려 살고 있으며, 각 종족은 다양성과 동질성을 가진 자신들만의 종족문화를 가지고 있다. 이러한 아프리카 종족 사회에 16세기 무렵부터 불어 닥친 서구의 문화 침탈과 변혁은 종족 사회에 가장 큰 충격으로 다가왔다. 서구 열강들이 아프리카를 점령하여 식민 통치를 하는 동안 아프리카 대륙은 많은 고통을 겪어야만 했다. 아프리카는 가난, 할례, 피부색에 대한 차별 등 커다란 아픔을 겪고 있다. 아프리카의 아픔이 발생하는 원인은 갈등에서 비롯된다. 이 갈등으로 인해 생긴 ‘마음의 장벽’은 아프리카 사회가 통합될 수 없는 원인이라 할 수 있다. 오늘의 아프리카 사회가 통합되지 않고 끊임없는 종족 갈등과 테러, 폭력이 나타나는 것은 소득과 부의 양극화가 존재하기 때문이다. 정치적‧사회적‧경제적 박탈감에서 비롯되는 사회적 격차와 분열은 종족주의와 반정부운동을 표방하는 테러와 폭력을 불러오고 있다. 아프리카의 밝은 미래 전망을 위해서는 아프리카 54개국의 정치 지도자들이 ‘현실 위기’에 대한 정확하고 정직한 인식을 가지는 것으로부터 시작해야 한다. 그리고 현재의 문제에 대한 책임을 보다 깊이 인정하고, 올바른 해결책의 선택을 통해 긍정적인 변화발전을 모색해야 한다. 이 같은 현실에서는 이데올로기적인 정치구조와 체계가 아닌 정부와 의회의 정치적 의지, 분열된 사회의 통합능력, 국민의 이익을 위한 정책을 실행하려는 의지가 중요하다. 2050년도의 아프리카가 어떤 모습으로 변화하고 발전할 것인가를 예상하고 대비책을 세우는 것은 매우 중요하다. 이때 다른 국가들의 우수한 사례를 참고하는 것도 좋은 방법이 될 수 있을 것이다. 그러나 이러한 대비책들이 효과적으로 운영되기 위해서는 평등, 사회적 서열의식의 파괴, 종족 우월주의 파괴 등 사회 통합이 전제되어야 한다. 따라서 통합된 사회를 구현하는 것이야말로 아프리카의 핵심적인 장기 과제가 되어야 한다. The African continent is the rich in both natural resources and population around the world. However, it is the world’s poorest place and also the one that suffers from climate change. From a historical perspective, Africa has suffered numerous civil wars, wars, and colonial rule, and it seems to have been disappeared hope because of this history. Today, Africa is increasingly corrupt of government, and its people are tired of it. So this paper will look at the causes of the current situation in Africa and how to change the future of Africa, and see the future of Africa based on it. There are more than 3,000 tribes in the African continent, and each tribe has its own ethnic culture having diversity and homogeneity. Western cultural invasions and transformations that have occurred in these African tribal societies since the 16th century have come as the biggest shock to ethnic communities. While the Western powers occupied Africa and colonized it, the African continent had to suffer a lot. In addition, Africa suffers greatly from poverty, circumcision and discrimination against skin color. Africa’s pain causes from conflict. The ‘heart barrier’ created by this conflict is why African society can not be together. Why today’s African society is not integrated, and constant ethnic conflicts, terrorism and violence emerge is because there is a polarization of income and wealth. Social gaps and divisions arising from the sense of political, social and economic deprivation have led to terrorism and violence advocating the pro-democracy and anti-government movements. For the bright future prospects of Africa, Political leaders in Africa 54 countries need to start to have accurate and honest perception about ‘real crisis.’ They also should more deeply acknowledge responsibility for current problems, and seek for the positive changes and development through choosing the right solution. Above all, in this reality, political will of the government and parliament, integrative capacity for a divided society, and the will to carry out policies for the interests of the people are important not ideological political structure and the system. It is very important to predict the changes and development of Africa in 2050. It would be a good way to refer to the best examples of other countries for this. In order for these provisions to operate effectively, however, social integration must be pre-requisite: equality, the destruction of social hierarchy and the destruction of ethnic chauvinism. Therefore, implementing an integrated society should be a key long-term challenge for Africa.