Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Activity in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence

Magda Kandil 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2004 Journal of Economic Development Vol.29 No.1

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output growth and price inflation in a sample of twenty-two developing countries. The analysis introduces a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the output and price responses to changes in the exchange rate. In general, exchange rate depreciation, both anticipated and unanticipated, decreases real output growth and increases price inflation. The evidence confirms concerns about the negative effects of currency depreciation on economic performance in developing countries.

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Magda Kandil 연세대학교 동서문제연구원 2013 Global economic review Vol.42 No.2

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.

Determinants and Implications of Cyclicality: Contrasting Evidence Across Developed and Developing Countries

Magda Kandil 한국국제경제학회 2018 International Economic Journal Vol.32 No.4

Using data for a sample of advanced and developing countries, the paper studies variation in the effects of aggregate demand shocks on the macro-economy and distinguish between the effects of expansionary and contractionary shocks. The aim is to study the determinants and implications of cyclicality across representative countries in each group. The composite evidence points to high degree of cyclicality in many countries. The risk of cyclicality is higher in developing countries as high trend inflation limits the scope to mobilize growth and increases downward rigidity of prices. Policy priorities in developing countries should be focused on fighting inflation and improving the investment environment towards maximizing the return on investment and sustaining growth and capacity building. Policy priorities in advanced countries should be focused on mobilizing resources to ease capacity constraints and finance larger investment, with limited crowding out, to maximize the potential of real growth and combat inflationary pressures.

Trade Flows, Financial Linkage, and Business Cycles in Latin America

( Magda Kandil ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소(구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2011 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.26 No.3

This paper studies co-movements in real output growth across countries of Latin America in the sample period 1970-2007. To detect the change over time, correlations in real growth are analyzed over two sub-samples: 1970-1986 and 1987-2007. Correlation coefficients detect co-movements in real growth across five regional groups: Andean, Caribbean, Central America, LAC7(Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Mexico, Peru, Venezuela) and Mercosur. In addition, growth in each of the EU, the U.S., and Brazil are assumed to be common sources of co-movements in real output growth in Latin America. Business-cycle comovements within and across regions have varied over time. We also examine the impact of trade flows and financial linkage on co-movements in real growth within and across regions. The effect of trade flows is not conclusive. Business cycles may diverge, converge, or not vary significantly in response to trade flows across countries. More recently, co-movement in real growth appears to be tracking comovement in short-term interest rates across Latin America.

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Balance of Payments: Channels of Interaction in Developing and Developed Countries

( Magda Kandil ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2009 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.24 No.1

Agents engage in a process of forecasting the exchange rate based on observations of macroeconomic fundamentals. Deviations in the realized exchange rate from agents` forecasts determine fluctuations in components of the current and financial accounts of the balance of payments in a sample of developing and industrial countries. Absent measures to stimulate export growth in developing countries and given their high dependency on imports, the current account balance deteriorates with respect to currency depreciation. Across industrial countries, the reduction in the value of exports with respect to currency depreciation correlates with a reduction in the value of imports. The combined effect cancel out on the trade and current account balances in industrial countries. Similarly, currency appreciation increases the nominal value of exports and imports without a significant effect on the current account balance in industrial countries. The combined evidence highlights the benefits of a flexible exchange rate system, prevailing in many industrial countries, to ensure that a depreciating rate curbs import growth and increases financial flows. In contrast, currency appreciation increases imports and deteriorates the current account balance across developing countries. Moreover, the evidence indicates the adverse effect of an overvalued exchange rate and the expected deterioration in the balance of payments should developing countries be forced to abandon a peg abruptly.

Causal Fungus of Side Rot on ‘Zesy002’ Kiwifruit in Jeju Island, South Korea

Magda Ledesma,Yong Ho Shin,Sonia Whiteman,Joy Tyson,Gyoung Hee Kim,Jeum Kyu Hong,Birgit Zange,Yong Chull Jeun 한국식물병리학회 2021 식물병연구 Vol.27 No.1

Since the past few years, dimple rot has become one of the most serious diseases affecting Actinidia chinensis var. chinensis ‘Zesy002’ kiwifruit in Korea, leading to a low quality and subsequent losses of income. In the current study, the causal pathogen of side rot on ‘Zesy002’ kiwifruit was identified to be Botryosphaeria dothi- dea, a widespread pathogen that could penetrate the fruit directly without wounding. Diaporthe sp., another pathogen causing dimple rot, was isolated from infected kiwifruit. It was not able to infect fruits without wounding. Dimple-rot symptoms are known to be associated with other pathogens from the Pseudocerco- spora genus. In this study, B. dothidea was ratified as the causal disease agent in Jeju Island. To illustrate the pathogenicity of this fungus on ‘Zesy002’, further studies such as observation of infection structures of fun- gus may be needed.

Fisheries Resources of Sudan

Magda Ahmed Abd El Magid,Salah Mahmoud Hamed Elseed 한국해양바이오학회 2008 한국해양바이오학회지 Vol.3 No.1

The Effects of a Flavonoid-Rich Diet on Oxidative Stress, Inflammation, and Lipid Profile after Elective Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Magda Ambros Cammerer,Sandro Cadaval Goncalves,Gustavo Neves de Araujo,Michael Everton Andrades,Amanda Lopes,Marco Vugman Wainstein 한국식품영양과학회 2018 Preventive Nutrition and Food Science Vol.23 No.2

Antioxidant-rich foods may decrease oxidative stress and have a direct impact on atherosclerosis by reducing low-density lipoprotein (LDL) oxidation. Our aim was to assess the impact of a flavonoid-rich diet on oxidative stress, inflammatory response, and lipid profile in patients with coronary artery disease submitted to elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Thirty-three patients submitted to elective PCI were randomly allocated to follow either a flavonoid rich antioxidant (AOX) diet or a control diet based on National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III recommendations. Patients were followed for 6 months. Dietary intake was recorded at the start and at the end of the follow-up period, as were oxidative stress markers (ferric reducing ability of plasma and protein sulphydryl) and Creactive protein (CRP). Patients randomized to follow the AOX diet had a reduction in energy, carbohydrate, and lipid intake, as well as increased flavonoid intake. Compared to the control group, there were no changes in oxidative stress markers or CRP in the patients following the AOX diet, but these patients had a significant decrease in LDL cholesterol levels. In conclusion, the findings of this study suggest that a flavonoid-based antioxidant-rich diet is not associated with reductions in oxidative stress or inflammatory markers 6 months after percutaneous coronary intervention. Nonetheless, patients in the intervention group experienced significant reductions in LDL cholesterol, which may indicate cardiovascular benefits of AOX diets despite of inflammation and oxidative stress markers.

The Use of Phenanthraquinone Monophenyl Thiosemicarbazone for Preconcentration, Ion Flotation and Spectrometric Determination of Zinc(II) in Human Biofluids and Pharmaceutical Samples

Magda Ali Akl 대한화학회 2006 Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society Vol.27 No.5

Automatic Monitoring of Water Pollution from Sentinal-2 Satellite Imagery: A Case Study of Mediterranean Coast, Egypt

Magda Farhan,Mahmoud Salah,Ali M. Basha,Ahmed Kahlil,Omnia Fathy 대한토목학회 2023 KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Vol.27 No.8

Water is the most important source among the natural sources on the earth's surface for the health of marine and near-shore ecosystems. Assessing water pollution in coastal areas is an essential process for sustainable development. El Gharbia coast, Egypt is one of the most important coasts of Egypt. The main objective of this work is to predict the future changes of water pollution in this coast using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery of three consequent times. First, three Sentinel-2 satellite imagery of consequent dates were acquired and processed for further classification process. The maximum likelihood classification algorithm was then used to prepare the base maps for: time 1, time 2 and time 3, with ten major classes (pollutants). The classified images of time 1 and time 2 were then used to predict the time 3 water pollution map using a Markov Chain Model. After that, the final predicted water pollution map for time 3 was validated with the classified one of the same time. Finally, and compared with the water pollution map of time 3, the future ratios of all types of pollutants have been predicted. The results showed that the proposed model can simulate water pollution changes with reliable results. Based on the simulated water pollution map and by 2030, the ratios of all pollutants will increase. Accordingly, El Gharbia coast and surrounding activities can be saved from more pollution in the future.