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MT-CLIM 프로그램을 이용한 일별 일사량 추정의 국내 적용성 검토
심교문 ( Kyo Moon Shim ),김용석 ( Yong Seok Kim ),이덕배 ( Deog Bae Lee ),강기경 ( Ki Keong Kang ),소규호 ( Kyo Ho So ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.4
Accuracy of daily solar radiation estimated from a Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MTCLIM) was assessed for seven observation sites with complex topography in Uiseong County. The coefficient of determination (R2) between the observed and the estimated daily solar radiation was 0.52 for 7 sites for the study period from 1 August to 30 September 2009. Overall, the MT-CLIM overestimated the solar radiation with root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.83MJ m-2 which is about 25% of the mean daily solar radiation (15.27MJ m-2) for the study period. Considering that the pyranometer`s tolerance is ±5% of standard sensor, the RMSE of MT-CLIM was too large to accept for a direct application for agricultural sector. The reliability of solar radiation estimated by MTCLIM must be improved by considering additional ways such as using a topography correction coefficient.
심교문 ( Kyo Moon Shim ),김용석 ( Yong Seok Kim ),김건엽 ( Gun Yeob Kim ),이덕배 ( Deog Bae Lee ),강기경 ( Ki Keong Kang ),소규호 ( Kyu Ho So ),이강효 ( Kang Hyo Lee ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.4
In this study, in order to provide an information for artificial cultivation of wild mushroom, the meteorological effects on wild mushroom appearance were examined using daily meteorological observations in Chiak National Park. The survey of wild mushroom appearance was carried out once a month from June to October. Under high temperature and humidity conditions in July and August, the appearance of wild mushroom was frequent. In contrast, lower number of wild mushroom appeared in October. Wild mushroom appearance was affected by solar radiation, relative humidity, precipitation, and soil water content whereas the impact of air and soil temperature was lower than that of other meteorological elements.
A1B 기후변화 시나리오가 국내 가을 쌀보리의 잠재수량에 미치는 영향 모사
심교문 ( Kyo Moon Shim ),민성현 ( Sung Hyun Min ),이덕배 ( Deog Bae Lee ),김건엽 ( Gun Yeob Kim ),정현철 ( Hyun Cheol Jeong ),이슬비 ( Seul Bi Lee ),강기경 ( Ki Keong Kang ) 한국농림기상학회 2011 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.13 No.4
The CERES-Barley crop simulation model was used to assess the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of winter naked barley in Korea. Fifty six sites over the southern part of the Korean Peninsula were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic conditions. Based on the A1B climate change scenarios of Korea, the present climatological normal (1971-2000) and the three future ones (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were considered in this study. The three future normals were divided by three environmental conditions with changes in: (1) temperature only, (2) carbon dioxide concentration only, and (3) both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The agreement between the observed and simulated outcomes was reasonable with the coefficient of determination of grain yield to be 0.78. We concluded that the CERES-Barley model was suitable for predicting climate change impacts on the potential yield of winter naked barley. The effect of the increased temperature only with the climate change scenario was negative to the potential yield of winter naked barley, which ranges from -34 to -9% for the three future normals. However, the effect of the elevated carbon dioxide concentration only on the potential yield of winter naked barley was positive, ranging from 6 to 31% for the three future normals. For the elevated conditions of both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, the potential yields increased by 8, 15, and 13% for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 normals, respectively.
엘니뇨 발생연도의 우리나라의 이상기상 특징과 쌀 수량과의 관계
심교문 ( Kyo-moon Shim ),정명표 ( Myung-pyo Jung ),김용석 ( Yong-seok Kim ),최인태 ( In-tae Choi ),김호정 ( Ho-jung Kim ),강기경 ( Kee-kyung Kang ) 한국농림기상학회 2016 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.18 No.3
본 논문에서는 1980년 이후 중간 강도 이상의 엘니뇨가 발생한 해의 이상기상 특징과 쌀 수량과의 관계를 분석하였다. 엘니뇨가 발생한 해(n=14)의 전국 평균 쌀 생산량은 466.3kg 10a<sup>-1</sup>으로 미발생한 해(n=16)의 전국평균 쌀 생산량 476.5kg 10a<sup>-1</sup> 보다 단위면적당 10.2kg적었지만, 통계적으로는 유의하지 않았다(t=1.215, p=0.234). 또한, 엘니뇨 종료해의 전국 평균 쌀 생산량이엘니뇨 시작해와 엘니뇨 미발생해의 쌀 생산량보다 낮은 경향을 보였지만, 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 분석되었다(df=2, f=2.355, p=0.114). 엘니뇨 발생해의 이상기상 발생횟수는 0.57회/년으로 엘니뇨 미발생해의 이상기상 발생횟수(0.63회/년) 보다 다소 적은 것으로 분석되었다. 그러나 엘니뇨 발생해를 시작해와 종료해로 구분하여 이상기상 발생횟수를 조사하면, 엘니뇨종료해의 이상기상 발생횟수가 0.71회/년으로 엘니뇨시작해의 이상기상 발생횟수(0.43회/년)와, 엘니뇨 미발생해의 이상기상 발생횟수(0.63회/년) 보다 많은 것으로 조사되었다. 하지만, 이들은 통계적으로 유의한 차이를 나타내지는 않았다(df=2, f=0.321, p=0.727). In this study, we analyzed the relationship between rice yield and abnormal meteorological features for El Nino years (with more than 1.0 Oceanic Nino Index) since 1980 in South Korea. The national averaged rice yield of El Nino years (n=14) was 4,663 kg ha<sup>-1</sup>, which was less than that of non El Nino years (n=16) by 102 kg ha<sup>-1</sup>, but the difference was not significant statistically (t=1.215, p=0.234). The averaged rice yield of El Nino end years (4,558 kg ha<sup>-1</sup>) was analyzed to be less than those of El Nino start years and non El Nino years by 209 and 206 kg ha-1, respectively. But, the trend was not significant statistically (df=2, f=2.355, p=0.114). When meteorological anomalies were analyzed based on seasonal meteorological values, 18 meteorological events in total were observed for the past 30 years (1981-2010). In detail, abnormally much precipitation occurred 6 times, most often, followed by 5 times of abnormally low temperature during the past 30 years. Occurrence of meteorological anormalies of El Nino end years was 0.71 events per year on average, which was higher than those of El Nino start years (0.43 yr<sup>-1</sup>) and non El Nino years (0.63 yr<sup>-1</sup>), even if the differences were not significant statistically (df=2, f=0.321, p=0.727).
Beta 함수 모형을 이용한 국내 옥수수 품종의 출사기 예측
심교문,김용석,이진석,정명표,최인태,김호정,Shim, Kyo-Moon,Kim, Yong-Seok,Lee, Jin-Seok,Jung, Myung-Pyo,Choi, In-tae,Kim, Hojung 한국농림기상학회 2017 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.19 No.3
수원 등 4개의 시험포장에서 2008년부터 2013년까지 6년 동안 조사한 옥수수 품종의 생물계절(출사기 등) 자료와 시험포장 인근의 기상관측소에서 측정한 시간별 온도자료를 활용하여 온도기반의 Beta 함수 모형을 개발하였다. Beta 함수 모형을 이용하여 2종의 옥수수 품종에 대한 2014년과 2015년의 출사기 예측을 4개 조사지점에 대해서 각각 수행하였고, 그 결과를 활용하여 모형의 성능을 평가하였다. 모형에 의해 추정한 옥수수의 출사기는 시험포장에서 관측한 출사기보다 이르게 모의하였지만, 이들의 상관계수(r=0.859)는 높은 것으로 확인되었다. 모형의 성능은 지역과 연도에 따라서 다르게 평가되었는데, 이는 모형에 활용된 평균 모수의 표준편차가 커서 나타난 현상으로 추정되었고, 모수의 표준편차가 큰 현상은 시험포장의 기상관측자료의 부재로 다소 떨어진 인근의 기상관측자료를 활용한 것이 한 원인으로 판단되었다. A temperature-based Beta function model was developed for corn hybrids (Zea mays L.). The beta function based on the hourly temperature was fitted to the phenology data (silking date) obtained for six years from 2008 through 2013 at four survey sites. Using the Beta function model, silking dates for two corn hybrids with the different ecotype ('Danok3', 'Ilmichal') were estimated over two years from 2014 through 2015 at four sites, and then the performance of the model was evaluated based on the data for the same period. The silking dates estimated by the model were predicted earlier than those observed at survey sites. Still, the correlation between estimates and observation was relatively high (r=0.859). The accuracy of the model differed by the survey site and the year, which was likely due to the considerably large standard deviation of the parameter calibrated in this study.
심교문 ( Kyo-moon Shim ),김용석 ( Yongseok Kim ),허지나 ( Jina Hur ),조세라 ( Sera Jo ),강기경 ( Kee-kyung Kang ) 한국농림기상학회 2020 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.22 No.4
본 논문에서는 1991년 이후 중간 강도 이상의 엘니뇨가 발생한 해의 고랭지배추의 단위면적당 생산량의 변화를 비교 분석하였다. 엘니뇨가 발생한 해 (n=12)의 고랭지배추의 전국 평균 생산량 (3,444±384kg 10a<sup>-1</sup>)은 미 발생한 해 (n=14)의 생산량 (3,722±277kg 10a<sup>-1</sup>)보다 적었으며, 통계적으로도 유의하였다(t=2.140, p=0.042). 또한, 엘니뇨가 종료한 해의 고랭지배추의 전국 평균 생산량은 엘니뇨가 시작한 해와 엘니뇨가 미 발생한 해보다 낮은 경향을 보였고, 이 또한 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 분석되었다(df=2, f=3.874, p=0.035). 이것은 고랭지 배추 재배기간의 저온, 일조부족, 강수량 증가 현상이 1차적 원인으로 사료되나, 앞으로 엘니뇨 발생에 따른 악기상 등 각종 농업환경 변화와 고랭지배추의 생산성의 관계 등 추가 연구가 필요하다. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of El Nino on highland kimchi cabbage production for the period from 1991-2016 in South Korea. Years with less than 1.0 Oceanic Nino index (ONI) were classified into non El Nino years, while years with equal to or greater than 1.0 ONI were defined as El Nino years. The national average production (3,444 ㎏ 10a<sup>-1</sup>) of high kimchi cabbage in El Nino years tended to be less than that in non El Nino years (3,722 kg 10a<sup>-1</sup>) with significant differences (p = 0.0042) in the production between these groups of years. The averaged production of highland kimchi cabbage of El Nino end years (3,289 ㎏ 10a<sup>-1</sup>) was less than those of El Nino start years and non El Nino years by 310 and 433 ㎏ 10a<sup>-1</sup>, respectively. Such difference was significant statistically (p=0.035). According to our analysis, the differences in kimchi cabbage productions resulted from low temperature, short sunshine duration, and precipitation increase during the cultivation period of highland kimchi cabbage. This study may help for further analysis on the impact of extreme weather conditions during El Nino years on crop production.