http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
A Hybrid Method to Improve Forecasting Accuracy Utilizing Genetic Algorithm
Hiromasa Takeyasu,Yuki Higuchi,Kazuhiro Takeyasu 대한산업공학회 2013 Industrial Engineeering & Management Systems Vol.12 No.3
In industries, shipping is an important issue in improving the forecasting accuracy of sales. This paper introduces a hybrid method and plural methods are compared. Focusing the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) that is equivalent to (1, 1) order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model equation, a new method of estimating the smoothing constant in ESM had been proposed previously by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, the smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. However, this paper utilizes the above stated theoretical solution. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate the smoothing constant. Thus, theoretical solution is derived in a simple way and it may be utilized in various fields. Furthermore, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. This method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order nonlinear function and 3rd order nonlinear function is executed to the original production data of two kinds of bread. Genetic algorithm is utilized to search the optimal weight for the weighting parameters of linear and nonlinear function. For comparison, the monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.
Social Cognition of Temporality and Environment: Lingua Franca English Construction
Hiromasa Tanaka,Florin Nechita 한국경영커뮤니케이션학회 2020 Business Communication Research and Practice Vol.3 No.1
Objectives:When English is used as a lingua franca for business interactions in Asian countries, the inherent and complex interplay that occurs in communications may fail to be captured when observed and analyzed through a conventional structuralist approach, one restricted by the binary view that language and culture are mutually exclusive. Thus, we employ a neo-constructivist approach which involves paying attention to the participant’s cognition of temporality and environmental communicative resources. Methods:This article analyses data from spontaneous interactions between students and local tourism professionals in an intercultural destination marketing project where the description illustrates the process of situated Lingua Franca English (LFE) discourse under construction. Our analysis suggests ways to develop LFE competence among Japanese speakers operating in international business. Results:Our data demonstrate that, on the jobsite, various types of LFE are constructed in relation to the participants’ social cognition of temporality and to the semiotic resources available in this situation. Conclusions:We conclude that socially constructing situation-specific LFE requires participants to distribute their attention to team members by gradually forming consensus on a certain style of communication. Furthermore, our findings imply that cognition and active employment of various semiotic resources made their view of LFE communication shift from passive risk-avoiding English users to owners of LFE.