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Rethinking Economic Sanctions on North Korea: Explaining the Success of Sanctions on BDA
Gunwoo Kim(김건우) 신아시아연구소(구 신아세아질서연구회) 2019 신아세아 Vol.26 No.2
방코델타아시아(BDA) 제재의 성공 요인은 무엇인가? 2005년 미 재무부는 북한의 불법자금유통과 관련하여 BDA를 제재하였다. 이 사건은 복잡한 국제 정치적 맥락 속에서 진행되었으며, 제재의 성과에 대해서도 의견이 분분하다. 그러나 BDA 제재는 북한의 불법 경제활동 중단에 결정적인 효과를 보였으며, 핵협상 차원에서도 북한의 적극적인 반응을 끌어냈던 중요한 사건이었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기존 제재이론들을 중심으로 BDA의 성공 요인을 분석하였다. 먼저, 기존 연구들에서 제시하는 제재의 성공요인들을 1) 환경, 2) 설계, 3) 이행 측면으로 구분하여 정리하고, 이 틀을 바탕으로 BDA 제재가 효과적으로 작동 할 수 있게 만든 요인들을 분석하였다. 그 결과, 미국의 BDA 제재는 환경적 측면에서 제재에 유리한 조건은 아니었지만, 설계와 이행측면에서는 많은 성공 요인들을 갖고 있었다. 미 제재팀들은 북한의 정권과 연결된 경제 네트워크를 파악하여 제재 대상을 구체화 하였다. 또한, 금융영역에만 초점을 맞추어 단기간에 이행함으로써 민간경제부문의 불필요한 피해를 줄일 수 있었다. 그리고 미 재무부의 경제적 영향력과 국제금융체제의 투명성에 기반하여, 다양한 국제경제주체들의 참여를 끌어낼 수 있는 효과적 제재 네트워크를 구성할 수 있었다. 마지막으로, 미국의 제재 발표와 동시에 제재 네트워크가 작동하였으며 북한은 이에 대비할 시간이 없었다. What explains the success of sanctions against Banco Delta Asia (BDA)? In 2005, the US Department of Treasury sanctioned BDA for alleged money laundering related to the North Korean regime. Although the sanctions complicated international relations and had a controversial outcome, it prevented North Korea from illegal economic activities and influenced the Six-Party Talks for solving the Korean peninsula nuclear issue. This research analyzes the BDA case based on current theories of economic sanctions. First, the research designs a framework for analysis by reviewing explanatory factors for the success of sanctions in three aspects: environment, design, and execution. Based on the framework, it analyzes critical factors for the success of the BDA sanctions. Ultimately, the BDA case satisfied several conditions for success in the design and execution of sanctions, while it failed to satisfy success conditions regarding the environment. The sanctions were effective because the US clarified the target by identifying the economic network related to the North Korean leadership and it reduced collateral damage by executing financial sanctions in a short period of time. Furthermore, the US was successful in making individual financial institutions participate in the sanctions by organizing an effective sanctions network based on US economic hegemony and the transparency of the international financial system. Finally, swift execution of sanctions did not allow North Korea to prepare to absorb the impact of the measures which made the mechanism more effective.
Gunwoo Park(박건우),Seungbum Koo(구승범) 대한기계학회 2021 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2021 No.4
Motion during human walking can be represented as a sequence of poses. Precise data acquisition for motion analysis usually consumes time and cost. For most of the researches about gait, the number of training data is usually smaller than the dimensionality of features. Therefore, dimensionality reduction methods are applied to extract important features by eliminating redundancy. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a method that preserves maximum data variation with reduced components by a linear transformation. Though there had been various nonlinear methods to address the limitations of PCA, some works showed that PCA could have better performance than those methods depending on the distribution of data. This study compares PCA and two nonlinear methods, t-SNE, and multilayer autoencoders on gait motion. Dataset used in this study contains 1952 trials of walking motion capture. Nonlinear methods were implemented as encoder and decoder pair, which are fully connected neural networks. The methods were compared in terms of reconstruction error of original data and preservation of pairwise Euclidean distance in reduced dimension. The results suggest a proper method how to reduce the dimensionality of walking motion, with the pros and cons of each of them.
A Study on Information Contents in the Volatility Spread in KOSPI market
Gunwoo Nam,Junwoo Lee,Hyoungoo Kang,JongYoen Choi 한국재무학회 2013 한국재무학회 학술대회 Vol.2013 No.08
This research examines information content and origin of the volatility spread of KOSPI200 index, which is the difference in implied volatility of call and put options of KOSPI200 having the same maturity and strike. Kim (2011) discovered that the volatility spreads of KOSPI200 options precedes KOSPI200 index return rate. Using a more recent data set of KOSPI200, this study shows that the volatility spread shows forecasting power on KOSPI200 return rate as in Kim (2011). Further, it reveals the fundamental cause of volatility spread is the basis between spot and futures of underlying asset. In addition it has been indicated that spread of spot and futures are the more reliable information in predicting KOSPI200 return than the volatility spread index return rate through VAR analysis and theoretical explanation respectively. This study differs to Kim(2011) mainly in considering futures as key role.
Gunwoo Nam,Myeong Gon Jeong,Myung-Sun Kim,Jae Chul Yoo,Sang jin Shin,Joo Han Oh 대한견주관절의학회 2021 대한견주관절학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2021 No.3
Introduction and Background About 20% of conventional cemented polyethylene glenoid components in aTSA need revision or conversion to rTSA, that often encounters massive glenoid bone loss. Therefore, the convertible glenoid component with metal-back baseplate and Vitamin E1 coated polyethylene is introduced as a bone-preserving arthroplasty. We tried to compare the short-term clinical and radiological outcomes between the convertible and cemented polyethylene glenoid component in aTSA. Material and Method Since 2007, 75 patients who underwent aTSA using Comprehensive System<sup>®</sup> were retrospectively reviewed in 4 tertiary referral hospitals. Convertible glenoid component was used in 28 patients (Convertible group) and cemented polyethylene glenoid component in 51 (Polyethylene group), and 18 patients of Convertible group and 43 in Polyethylene group were followed-up more than at least one year postoperatively (mean 18 (12~46) and 38.1 (12~79) months, respectively). Pre- and postoperative clinical outcomes were assessed using visual analogue scales for pain (pVAS), range of motions (ROM) and several functional outcome measurements. Radiological outcome was evaluated by standardized radiography at the last follow-up. Results The mean age at surgery was 61 (range, 41~74) years for Convertible group and 67 (range, 37~84) years for Polyethylene group (p>0.05). There were no differences between two groups in pVAS, ROM and functional scores (all p>0.05). There were 5 patients of subscapularis failure (3 in Convertible group (17%), 2 in Polyethylene group (4%)), and the conversion to rTSA was performed in 3 of Convertible group and 1 of Polyethylene group. Radiological loosening was found in 1 patients of the Polyethylene group, not in Convertible group. Conclusions The current data suggested that lateralized center of rotation in aTSA should be cautioned in cases of convertible glenoid component to prevent subscapularis failure. Considering previous most metal-back component failed within 3 years postoperatively, further observation is mandatory whether Vitamin E1 coated polyethylene is effective to reduce radiological loosening.
경유의 황성분이 SiC 매연저감장치의 성능에 미치는 영향
정건우(Gunwoo Jeong),강정호(Jeongho Kang),여아영(Ahyoung Yeo),정재우(Jae-Woo Chung),윤영훈(Younghun Yoon),정용현(Yonghyun Jeong),조재득(Jaedeug Jo),유영환(Younghwan You) 한국자동차공학회 2011 한국자동차공학회 부문종합 학술대회 Vol.2011 No.5
Nowaday, Many country have been using many kind of DPF system. But reduction efficiency was decrease when using less than 430ppm sulfur contents diesel fuel used for a long time. Because sulfur poisoning. Therefore, It was hard to using for diesel fuel. some country using less than 430ppm sulfur contents diesel fuel. In this paper was studied for endurable SiC filter of sulfur poisoning. Because Reduction efficiency decrease Occurs. due to sulfur contents Because low sulfur diesel used for a long time. than uses 30ppm of sulfur contents in Constraints on. Need to be developed. In order to export to foreign countries for consumption will occur So I need to be developed to sulfur poisoning resistant SiC filter. Properties were examined for Sulfur poisoning by dynamometer durability Test. As the result. Reduction efficiency was found that many were not different. to Emissions and particulate matter. Reduction efficiency changes depending on the amount of coating. Suggested the possibility to filter development.