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KERI ECONOMIC BULLETIN April 2010 No.60
Korea Economic Research Institute 한국경제연구원 2010 KERI Economic Bulletin Vol.60 No.-
Korean Economic Growth for 2010 Projected at 4.6% The Korean economy is expected to grow 4.6% in 2010. uarterly, year-on-year growth is projected at 0.2% in the first quarter, 1.2% in the second quarter, 1.6% in the third quarter and 1.8% in the fourth quarter. Affected by improvements in income and consumer sentiment, domestic demand recovery is likely to quicken amid a favorable export trend expected in line with the realization of the global economic recovery. In 2010, private consumption is expected to grow 4.8%, owing to improvements in employment and income. Facility investment is also projected to rebound to 9.0% growth from a 9.1% decline last year in expectation of the economic recovery and the increased investment potential at large enterprises. However, construction investment growth is likely to slow to 0.2% in 2010 from a 4.4% expansion last year due to sluggish business conditions. Meanwhile, exports (U.S. dollar basis) are expected to grow about 15%, owing to the recovery trend in the global economy and base effects. Current Account Surplus at US$20 Bil., Inflation at 3.0%, Won/U.S. Dollar Fx Rate at 1,120 Won-Level Influenced by faster growth in imports than exports, greater overseas service demand, etc., the scale of the current account surplus is expected to reach about US$20 billion in 2010, a sharp drop from US$42.7 billion in 2009. Exports (U.S. dollar basis) are expected to grow about 15%, owing to a recovery trend in the global economy and base effects while imports are forecasted to grow about 20% due to the domestic economic recovery and import unit price increases. Affected by the economic recovery and import unit price increases, inflation rate is expected to hit 3.0% in 2010, up slightly from 2.8% in 2009. The Won-U.S. dollar exchange rate is projected to average 1,120 won on an annual basis in 2010 to post a mild declining trend due to a weakening dollar, the current account surplus, etc. Need to Increase Policy Rate to Keep Pace With Economic Recovery As the economy is expected to grow faster than the potential growth rate in the second half of 2010, there is a need to advance the timing of a policy rate increase to the first half of 2010. Fiscal policy should expand the private sector's role through tax reduction and smaller government and move toward securing fiscal health.
The Productive and Non-(Re) productive Women
Sites of Economic Growth in Ma 숙명여자대학교 아시아여성연구원 2010 Asian Women Vol.26 No.2
This paper is a critical revisit of the New Economic Policy and the New Population Policy of Malaysia. It attempts to inspect how a woman’s body (fertility) and her labor has been the site or location from which the economic growth of the country was dependent on but has never been recognized. The paper examines women’s contribution in the economy and their contribution to the economic growth of Malaysia. These contributions and changes were plotted against the changes in the policy domain with a focus on the New Economic Policy (NEP) and the New Population Policy (NPP) to see if there was any relationship between them. The paper also discusses that women have not always responded in line with policy calls especially in relation to their fertility but they have contributed significantly in the structural changes of the Malaysian economy. These responses are examined as a form of gender struggle within a fragmented and contradictory policy domain and within the context of very little gender equity/equality concerns in society and the policy domain. How these responses contributed in real terms to economic development and the overall growth of the country but with insignificant distributive effect for women contrary to the New Economic Policy’s claim is critically analyzed in this paper.
KERI ECONOMIC BULLETIN January 2010 No.59
Korea Economic Research Institute 한국경제연구원 2010 KERI Economic Bulletin Vol.59 No.-
Economic Growth for 2010 Projected at 4.2% The Korean economy, after recording a rapid recovery in the second half of 2009, is expected to slow down somewhat and mark an annual growth rate of 4.2% in 2010. As the government begins to implement exit strategies, ranging from interest rate rises to expiration of tax benefits, economic growth is expected to lose some momentum. In addition, lower world economic growth and a stronger Korean won will hamper a robust recovery in the export sector, which was a driving engine of economic recovery in 2009. Current Account to Post US$15 Bil. Surplus and Consumer Prices to Rise 2.9% in 2010 The commodity account surplus is expected to contract sharply due to import growth outpacing export growth in 2010. The service account deficit is also expected to grow again due to foreign exchange rate appreciation and weakness in service sector competitiveness. As a result, the current account surplus in 2010 is expected to be about US$15 billion, significantly lower than the US$41.5 billion in 2009. Rising prices of raw material imports will threaten price stability in 2010. However, due to weak domestic demand and a stronger Korean won, the consumer price level is expected to post a modest increase of less 3% in 2010. Caution Required for Interest Rate Increase It is important to emphasize that the policy interest rate should be raised in step with other countries' monetary policies so as to prevent excessively rapid capital inflows and faster than desired appreciation of the Korean won.