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Kim, Chul Gyum,Cho, Jaepil,Kim, Nam Won 한국수자원학회 2018 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.51 No.1
본 연구에서는 다중 기후모델에 의한 미래 기후자료를 기반으로 SWAT-K 유역모형을 적용하여, 제주도 지역의 미래 기후변화에 따른 수자원 영향을 평가하였다. 기후모델에 따른 미래 전망자료의 불확실성을 고려하여 9개의 GCM 모델의 기후자료를 미래기간(2010~2099년)에 대한 SWAT-K 모형의 기상자료로 적용하였다. 과거(1992~2013년) 및 미래기간에 대한 연도별 수문변화를 분석한 결과 강수량, 유출량, 증발산량, 함양량 모두 증가하는 추세로 나타났다. 과거기간에 비해 유출량의 변화가 가장 크게 나타났으며(최대 50% 증가), 증발산량은 상대적으로 작게 나타났다(최대 11% 증가). 월별로는 8월과 9월의 강수량 증가에 따라 유출량과 함양량도 크게 증가하는 반면, 동일기간에 대한 증발산량은 감소하는 것으로 분석되었다. 1월과 12월은 반대의 경향이 나타났다. 미래의 물수지 변화를 분석한 결과 강수량 대비 유출량, 증발산량, 함양량의 비율은 변화가 크지 않으나, 과거와 비교했을 때 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 유출량 비율은 최대 4.3% 증가하는 반면, 증발산량 비율은 최대 3.5% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 기존의 타 연구와 본 연구에서 도출한 결과를 종합해 볼 때, 현재 제시되고 있는 기후변화 시나리오 가정 하에서는 미래로 갈수록 점차 강수량과 유출량이 증가할 것이고 특히 여름철 강수량 및 유출량의 증가가 예상된다. 이로 인해 제주도 지역의 함양량도 함께 증가할 것으로 판단할 수 있다. 다만, 본 연구는 장기적인 측면에서 자연적인 기후변화로 인한 영향을 분석한 것이며, 추가적으로 단기적인 수재해 대응을 위한 홍수와 가뭄관리, 인위적인 용수수급 관리 등에 대한 종합적인 분석을 통해 제주도 수자원의 지속가능한 이용을 위한 대응방안이 필요하다고 판단된다. The climate change impacts on hydrological components and water balance in Jeju Island were evaluated using multiple climate models and watershed model, SWAT-K. To take into account the uncertainty of the future forecast data according to climate models, climate data of 9 GCMs were utilized as weather data of SWAT-K for future period (2010-2099). Using the modeling results of the past (1992-2013) and the future period, the hydrological changes of each year were analyzed and the precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and recharge were increasing. Compared with the past, the change in the runoff was the largest (up to 50% increase) and the evapotranspiration was relatively small (up to 11% increase). Monthly results show that the amount of evapotranspiration and the amount of recharge are greatly increased as the amount of precipitation increases in August and September, while the amount of evapotranspiration decreases in the same period. January and December showed the opposite tendency. As a result of analyzing future water balance changes, the ratio of runoff, evapotranspiration, and recharge to rainfall did not change much, but compared to the past, the runoff rate increased up to 4.3% in the RCP 8.5 scenario, while the evapotranspiration rate decreased by up to 3.5%. Based on the results of other researchers and this study, it is expected that rainfall and runoff will increase gradually in the future under the assumption of present climate change scenarios. Especially summer precipitation and runoff are expected to increase. As a result, the amount of groundwater recharge in Jeju Island will increase.
김철겸 ( Kim Chul Gyum ),박승우 ( Park Seung Woo ),임상준 ( Im Sang Jun ) 한국농공학회 1999 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.1999 No.-
A modified SCS TR-20 model that may be applied to a watershed having rice paddies as a land use type, was formulated and applied to a gauged watershed. The model was applied to the Balan watershed of 26 km<sup>2</sup> in size for estimating storm hydrographs. And the simulation results from the model were also compared with those from the SCS model. The results showed that paddy fields play an important role to reduce peak runoff. When fractions of paddies are left to fallow conditions or when rice crop is replaced by other, the peak runoff was found to increase up to 10 to 20 percent. The reduction rates in peak runoff appear to become greater for heavier storms or higher antecedent moisture conditions.
김철겸 ( Kim Chul-gyum ),김현준 ( Kim Hyeon-jun ),김승 ( Kim Sung ) 한국농공학회 2000 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2000 No.-
A term, 「Water Efficiency」 was defined as a measure for the effective water management improvements in agriculture. To estimate the water efficiency, 7-year (1993∼1999) historical pumping records were collected from 59 pumping stations and water requirements of paddy fields for each station were estimated in the Han River basin. The water efficiency was estimated monthly and annually, and the assessment of the results was performed for each station and the associated branch offices of KARICO.
SCS TR-20 모형을 이용한 미계측 소유역의 홍수유출량 추정
김철겸 ( Kim Chul Gyum ),박승우 ( Park Seung Woo ),박창언 ( Park Chang Eon ) 한국농공학회 1998 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.1998 No.-
The objectives of this study are to evaluate the applicability of SCS TR-20 model for small ungauged watershed, to show the behavior of the model with variation of topography in watershed, and to evaluate the storage effect of paddy field for flood flow. For this purpose, simulated data from the model were compared with the observed flood data at two sites (HS#3, HS#4) in Balan watershed. From the comparison between simulated and observed data, it was found that the model is applicable to this watershed.
SWAT 모형을 이용한 경안천 유역의 유출 및 유사량 추정
김철겸 ( Kim Chul-gyum ),김현준 ( Kim Hyeon-jun ) 한국농공학회 2003 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2003 No.-
In this study, physically based SWAT model was applied to estimate the daily stream flows and sediment yields in Gyeongancheon watershed. The calibration and validation of the model outputs have been performed with yearly and daily measured stream flows of the time period 1988-1991 and 2001. The application results showed a good agreement with the simulated and observed stream flows, and similar trend with simulated and observed sediment yields. Overall, SW AT is a reasonable watershed scale model on long-term simulations of stream flows and sediment yields for management purposes.