금연실천단계의 영향변인에 대한 연구

장성옥,박창승 고려대학교 2001 간호학논집 Vol.3 No.-

Changes of Landscape Structure for the Recent 20 Years in the Wangsuk Stream Basin of the Central Korea

Lee, Chang-Seok,Cho, Yong-Chan,Shin, Hyun-Chul,Lee, Seon-Mi The Ecological Society of Korea 2006 Journal of Ecology and Environment Vol.29 No.4

Landscape changes for 20 years between 1981 and 2001 in the Wangsuk stream basin located on the central Korea were investigated on the basis of physiognomic vegetation map made from the aerial photograph interpretation and field check. Changes of landscape structure were noticeable in agricultural field and forest landscape elements. Changes in the agricultural fields due to transformation of agricultural pattern into the institutional agriculture dominated landscape change, although urbanization also contributed to such change. The former change due to change of food production structure originated from socio-economic development during this period and the latter to the overpopulation of Seoul. As energy sources for heating and cooking, fertilizer, and fodder for livestock transform from plant materials to fossil fuel, manufactured one, and grain, succession of forest escaped from direct human disturbance dominated change of landscape structure in forested land. Differently from the positive landscape change in the upper area, change in the lower area deteriorated landscape quality by increasing artificial land. It was estimated that such landscape deterioration in the Wangsuk stream basin would influence water quality of the stream. In order to realize sustainable land-use against such environmental degradation, systematic environmental management based on landscape ecological perspective such as "an eco-plan for creating riparian vegetation belt," which is under preparation by Ministry of Environment, was recommended.

韓國 在來 醬類製造史 : 특히 古農書類 나타난 醬類를 中心으로 Referred especially on Changes which appeared in Old Texts of Korean Agriculture

張智鉉 고려대학교 민족문화연구소 1969 民族文化硏究 Vol.3 No.-

According to the historical records, though the accurate origins were unknown, the history of Korean "Changs" may date back to about 1200 years ago. The age of early unified Shilla dynasty. The records reveal the first evidence of "Chang"―like soy products in this age. However, since it is generally believed that was imported from China about 2000 years ago, in the beginning of Sam-Kuk-age(三國時期初期) probably "Chang" manufacturing had started earlier. The records on Korean "Changs", however, are available not until the early stage of Yi dynasty. Undoubtedly during these long unrecorded period, the "Changs" manufacturing technology might had developed to certain degrees, since Koreans had been using continuously "Changs" as the basic cereal supplementing foods. But there is noway to know the history. In the records of the early Yi dynasty there appered, for the first time, the separate manufacturing and usage of Toenjang (fermented soybean mash) and Kanjang (soy sauce). Especially the Chinkanjang (陳甘醬―much concentrated or on aged soy sauce including Toenjang within) manufacturing was recorded already. These technology may be undoubtedly the result of long development during the unrecorded period. Later ku-Hwang-Chal-Yo (救荒撮要; a guide book for the relief of farmine) which was published in the age king Myung-Chong (明宗)recorded the various aspects of "Chang" manufacturing technology. According to this book, the "Chang" technology had especially progressed in the age of king Sae-Chong. (世宗). Koreans started to use wheat flour as the raw material of Toenjang meju (메주, soy sauce and soybean mash fermenting startar) in addition to soybean. A new device of expressing of soy sauce from soy sauce waste was also invented at that time. Therefor it can be said that the separate or independent manufacture of Kanjang and Toenjang was Completed in this age. According to the Sa-Si-Chan-Yo (四時纂要; a monthly farm guide) which was published in the year of king Hyo-Chong(孝宗) the "Changs" manufacturing had became one of the annual practices of Korean family and various kinds of characteristic "Changs" Kae-Chang (蟹醬), Jup-Chang (汁醬), Po-Chang (泡醬) were listed as the popular "Changs" at that times. Probably the fundamental technologies of many specific "Changs" manufacturing had been gradually established from the begining of the Yi dynasty to this age together with the development of food substitutes. A large modification in "Chang" manufacturing technology was brought in the middle ages of Yi dynasty. According to San-Lim-Kyung-Chai(山林經濟; a scientific encyclopedia) Chung-Chang (汁醬; the same as Kanjang) and Toenjang were described as the general purpose "Chang" of daily use and Jup-Chang (汁醬), Chung-Kuk-Chang (淸國醬) and Tam-Su-Chang (淡水醬) were listed as the popular specific "Changs" at that time. A new specific "Chang", Man-Cho-Chang (蠻椒醬, red pepper sauce) was deviced also in this age. Amang them the Chung-Chang is basically similar to the Present type of Korean Kanjang. It was described to be prepared entirely from soybean and Toenjang was the by-product of soy-souce, Undoubtedly the Present Korean Kanjang manufacturing technology may derive its origin to this Chung-Chang, using entirely soybean as the sole raw material. Probably further minor modifications, continued to improve "Chang" manufacturing technology and to adapt for home making method and scale, but essentially the similar "Chang" products which originated in the middle ages of Yi dynasty were conveyed to the present. Thus we can list the present day "Changs" as follows.; Chung-Chang, Toenjang, Nam-Cho-Chang (the same as Man-Cho-Chang) Jup-Chang, Chung-Kuk-Chang, Tam-Su-Chang. Among them the Chung-Chang and Nam-Cho-Chang are the only products of extensive general use by Korean of the Present day and others are only for occasional uses for an epicurism etc. The manufacturing procedures of present Korean Kanjang and Toenjang consist of three major steps; that is, the preparation of Meju, Kanjang fermentation, and expressing of sauce. The history of development of these three Kanjang manufacturing procedures are as the follows. I) The history of Kanjang-Meju Preparation method- The first record of Meju is found is San-Lim-Kyung-Jai. In this text it was described as: Cooked soy beans were mashed and made into small clumps and they were left in the room covered with brossonetia leaves, straw, grass leaves or morus bombysis leaves: Probably for microorganisms grow. From the middle ages Yi dynasty the Mejus were left piled in straw woven bages. The present day method, hanging the Mejus under the ceiling with straw ropes in the room, had been already described in the above San-Lim-Kyung-Jai also. It had been generally recogniged in the old texts of agriculture that coverage of Meju by yellow molds (黃衣) yielded good results. Without the present knowledge of pure culture technique of microbiology, it might hardly be expected to have a good growth of yellow molds by such primitive methods of Meju preparation, we can imagine. Probably such conditions rather might had favored the growth of bacteria and making Meju to Natto type soy product. We can think only of the effect of grass coverage on a good growth of yellow molds. There appeared many other very specific methods of Meju preparations described in the old texts, but none of them survived to be practiced and accepted among Koreans until to the present day. 2) The history of Kanjang fermentation- Until the middle age of Yi-dynasty Chin-Kanjang fermentation method which had been a device chiefly to obtain much concentrated soysauce so that it used small quantities of brine compared to the amount of Meju had been practiced. Later the tendency had come to obtain more quantities of dilute soy sauce and from the end of Yi dynasty the present day Chung-Chang fermentation method had emerged. This method has been using Meju: salt: water in the quantity ratio of 1 : 1 : 4. 3) History of method of expressing soy sauce- In the beginning the soy sauce had not been expressed from soybean mash but the whole mixtures had been consumed as "Chang". From the beginning of Yi dynasty as the need of soy sauce alone had become large the expressing method started to develope. In Ku-Hwang-Chal-Yo expressing by wood curtain was already described. In the middle ages of Yi dynasty, a hole was made in "Chang" and sauce exeeded in the hole was scooped out, or Yong-Su (a bamboo woven basket) were used to separate soy sauce from "Chang". From the end of Yi dynasty the present filtration method (for ex. using sive) were started to be used.

Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

網狀織內皮細胞系統이 胸腺『아렐기-』性變化에 미치는 影響에關한 實驗的硏究

柳昌鉉 최신의학사 1958 最新醫學 Vol.1 No.1

Series of studies regarding to the relation of the R.E.S. to allergic changes were carried out by many investigators. Boyd, Topley and Wilson, Wilson and Bloom, Hayashi and Maruyama described the produc- tion of antibody in the R.E.S.. Oka found that anaphyla ctic shock was inhibited by splenectomy. Prof.Yun, Far- mer reported that anaphylactic shock was inhibited by thymusectomy: Meanwhile, Ogawa and Isida recogni- zed that , anaphylactic shock was aggrevated by the administration of thymic substance. Juiigeblut and Berlot, Gay and Clark, Tuft, Oka, Sakurai, Watanave, Hirakawa and Ozima and Iwaii also recognized inhibition of anaphylactic shock in !he R.E.S. blockaded animals. Akahoshi, Apitz, Klinge and Umasugi reported that the main hyperallergic changes in liver were changed' in the stellet cells. Haedel and,Karsue have reported that anaphylactic- shock was inhibited by the-injection of a large dose of India ink solution and was aggrevated by a small dose of India ink solution: Prof. Yun, Moldovan, Slavoacet et Zolog found a protective substance against anaphylactic shock in the serum of the R. E. S. blockaded animal and claimed that the protective substance seems to be corresponded by the endocrine function in the R.E.S..Seul has reported that allergic in the liver were inhibited either by the injection of India ink solution or serum from the R. E. S. blockaded animal. 'Song also has recognized that the injection of India ink solution or serum from the R. E. S. blockaded animal inhibited allergic changes in the lungs. The experiment to be reported in this paper was to study the influence of the R.E.S. on allergic changes in thymus. Experimental material and method Normal rabbit weighing around 800 grams were used. I cc. of normal horse serum per kilogram of horse serum per kilogram of body weight given' locally . in thymus parencyma two weeks later.: For blockading the R.E.S., India ink solution obtained by the sterili- zation of i0% of BOPIL MUkJIP saline. solution was used. 1. Nonsensitizing group. The normal horse serum was injected locally in'the thymus parenchyma without sensitization. 2. Sensitizing group. The normal horse serum was injected subcutaneo 4 times for sensitizing. For reinjection, O.I cc, of normal horse serum per kilogram of body weight was given to the thymus parenchyma two weeks later. 3. Single injection of 50c. India ink solution. Allergic changes were observed in rabbits into which India ink solution, 5 cc. per kilogram of body Weight, was injected- intravenously 24 hours before sensitization. 4. Plural injection of 5 cc. India ink solution. Allergic changes were observed An rabbits into which India, ink :solution, 5 cc. per kilogram of body weight, was injected intravenouslly 6 times with 12 hours intervals 24 hours before sensitization. 5. Injection of the serum from normal rabbits. Allergic changes in. the thymus were observed in rabbits into which normal rabbit serum, 2 cc. per kilogram of body weight was injected intravenously 24 hours before sensitization. 6. Injection of the serum from single injection of 5 cc. India ink solution. Serum from rabbits, 2 cc. per kilogram of body weight,' into 'which 5 cc, of India ink solution per kilogram. of body weight had,,been injected was given 24 hours before sensitization. ` 7. Injection' of the serum from "plural injection of 5 cc. India ink solution. "The serum from rabbits, ,2 cc. per kilogram of body weight, into which 5, cc, of India ink solution per Kilogram of body weight " had been `injected 6 times with 12 hours intervals was given 24 hours before sensitization. Discussion Moldvan, Slovoaca of Zolog, Prof. Yun claimed the existance of inhibitory substance against allergic changes in the serum of the R.E,S. blockade. As ohs erved in these experiment, the 'injection of serum from rabbits blockaded with India ink solution, especially in the group receiving the serum from single iniection of India ink solution inhibited markedly allergic changes in thymus. It is quite apparent that the serum of the R. E. S. blockaded rabbits contain an inhibited subst- ante against allergic changes. Allergic changes in thymus were slightly inhibited. in rabbits directly blockaded with India ink solution. Jungeblut and Berlot, Gay and. Clark, Siegmond and Okazaki previously descrived the inhibition of allergic changes in the R.E.S. blockade. That is the inhibitory substance against allergic' changes were secreted from the R. E. S.. Conclusions. Studies on the relation between allergic changes in thymus and the R. E. S. are reported. 1) The injection of serum from the R.E.S. blockade with India ink solution inhibited allergic changes in thymus. 2) Direct blockade of the R. E. S. slightly, inhibited, allergic changes in thymus.

干支와 遅氣에 關한 硏究

尹暢烈,朴賛国 慶熙大學校韓醫科大學韓醫學硏究所 1987 慶熙韓醫大論文集 Vol.10 No.-

Vegetation change and emerging research feedback for Korean National Long Term Ecological Research (KNLTER)

Cho, Yong-Chan,Lee, Chang-Seok,Cho, Hyun-Je,Lee, Kyu-Song,Park, Pil-Sun The Ecological Society of Korea 2011 Journal of Ecology and Environment Vol.34 No.1

Various responses of forest ecosystems to climate change underscore the need to improve our understanding of the environmentally-driven changes in forests, most effectively by long-term monitoring protocols. We have explored vegetation dynamics based on changes in community structure, species composition, diversity and demographics in four Korean National Long Term Ecological Research (KNLTER) sites--Mt. Nam, Mt. Jeombong, Mt. Worak, and Mt. Jiri--between 2004 and 2009. Most of the sites and forests studied exhibited increments in total basal area, but this was not observed in Quercus mongolica forests in Mt. Nam and Mt. Worak. Stem density exhibited various changes. Altitude gradient was the representative factor in differences in species composition. Two patterns of compositional change--convergence and divergence--were detected. The vegetation of Mt. Nam and Q. mongolica community of Mt. Work showed relatively larger changes in composition. However, in the other sites, few changes were observed. Changes of species richness were not notable except for Mt. Nam, where three species were added in the pine forest, whereas one species disappeared in the oak forest. In the oak forests, mortality rate was as follows (in descending order): Mt. Nam (25.5%), Mt. Jeombong (24.3%), Mt. Worak (16.4%) and Mt. Jiri (0.8%). In the pine forest, the recruitment rate was as follows (in descending order): Mt. Nam (63.7%), Mt. Worak (12.9%), Mt. Jeombong (7.6%) and Mt. Jiri (7.3%). The mortality rate and change rate of basal area were strongly negatively correlated (r = -0.9, P = 0.002), and the recruitment rate and change rate of density were positively correlated (r = 0.77, P = 0.026). In the KNLTER sites, larger vegetation changes were attributed to anthropogenic activities such as salvage logging. Suppression or competition for resources would also affect these changes. Research suggestions such as monitoring to clarify the causes of species mortality were discussed.

흰쥐의 위산 분비 및 실험적 괴양에 미치는 향정신성물질의 영향

白尙昌 大韓神經精神醫學會 1974 신경정신의학 Vol.13 No.1

Introduction of psychotropic agents to the field of psychiatry brought tremendous change and new implication in the therapeutic aspect as well as the concept of psychosomatic medicine. Reserpine was introduced by Sen & Bose(1931), and Vakil(1949) and Hakim(1953) has proved it to release biogenic amine (serotonin, norepinephrine, epinephrine, dopamin) at brain cell and peripheral tissues. Chlorpromazine was proved to have tranquilizing effect by Laborit et al(1952), and tremendons therapeutic effect to treat the psychiatric patient was shown by Delay (1952 a&b) and Courvoisier(1653). Jn 1961, Gey and Pletscher, and Axelrod found that chlorpromazine reduced the permeability of granular membrane, where the biogenic amine was stored. Haloperidol, a derivative of butyrophenone was synthesized by Janssen(1958). In 1966 Glowinski and Axelrod and in 1967 Janssen and Schildkraut et.al. reported that haloperidol reduced the shift of catecholamine from neuron and granular membrane. Meprobamate, one of the minor tranquilizers, has been used widely as an antianxiety agent and antiulcer agent as well. But recently it seemed that the derivatives of benzodiazepine replaced meprobamate as antianxiety and antiulcer agent. In 1952, Delay reported the iproniazid showed anti-depressive effect and Zeller explained that iproniazid had M.A.O. inhibitory action (1952). In 1958, Kuhn reported imipramine, which has similar chemical structure of phenothiazine, showed M.A.O. inhibitory action and antidepressive action. Until recently many psychotropic agents has been introduced and used widely in the field of psychiatry. Author tried to find the influence of various psychotropic agents on gastric secretion and experimentally-induced peptic ulcer in rat. White male rat, average 180g of body weight was used as experimental animal. Experiment on gastric secretion was carried out with the method of Shay(1945), With the centrifuged gastric secretory material, the P.H. was measured by Radiometer, Titrator TTT₂(Copenhagen), and gastric secretion amount was measured by Autoburett, ABU11 (Radiometer). Experiment of artificial gastric ulcer was carried out through the stress givent by ① pyloric ligation ② shaking ③ restraint with upside down position. Pathological change on the mucous membrane of rat stomach including hemorrhage, erosion and perforation etc. was observed by Stereoscope. Result (1) Diazepam inhibited gastric secretion (especially gastric acid) and lowered the acidity. Yet meprobamate on the contrary, raised gastric secretion and acidity, which might possibly be due to its peripheral effect. (2) Chlorpromazine markedly depressed the gastric secretion. But Prochlorperazine, Haloperidol, and Reserpine did not show any significant change on gastric secretion, which might be due to their limited dosage to influence on gastric secretion. (3) Tranylcypromine, and M.A.O. inhibitor, markedly reduced gastric secretion and gastric acidity. The Imipramine, tricyclic antidepressant with similar chemical structure of chlorpromazine, lowered the free acid of stomach in rat. (4) The stress of pyloric ligation showed ulcerative change on rumen of stomach. Diazepam and Chlorpromazine premedicated rat did not reveal much change. But Tranylcypromine premedicated rat showed severe degree of ulcer change on all experimented rats and two of them were dead of perforation of stomach, which seemed to be the result of stomach, which seemed to be the result of stomach, which seemed to be the result of peripheral effect or decreased mucus of gastric secretion as an effect of relax action. (5) The stress of shaking the rat brought erosion and edematous change on rumen but no ulcerative change took place. Diazepam premedicated group has not showed change on mucous membrane. Chlorpromazine premedicated group showed mild degree of change. But Reserpine treated group showed marked degree of ulcer change on the rumen and 4 of this group died of gastric perforation. (6) The stress of restraint of rat with upside down position revealed marked degree of erosion and hemorrhage on glandular portion, but no change on rumen. But Diazepam, Chlorpromazine and Imipramine premedicated group of rats showed lesser degree above changes. As shown above, varions psychotropic agents influenced on gastric secretion and experimentally induced gastric ulcer in rats. It might be explained that most of the psychotropic agents could influence on biogenic amine metabolism of brain and on regulating anxiety, which prevent hypersecretion of stomach. But as a few of the exception for instance. Tranylcypromine and Reserpine brought severe degree of ulcer change, which might possible be due to the peripheral effect. Above two psychotropic agents are to be alarmed to use to the patient with peptic ulcer.

대표농도경로 (RCP) 시나리오에 따른 회야강 유역의 미래 유출 및 유사 변화 분석

황창수(Hwang, Chang Su),최철웅(Choi, Chul Uong),최지선(Choi, Ji Sun) 대한공간정보학회 2014 대한공간정보학회지 Vol.22 No.3

본 연구는 미래 기후변화 및 토지피복변화가 유역 내 유출량과 유사량의 거동에 가져올 영향을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 기상자료는 IPCC 5차 평가보고서를 위해 새롭게 논의된 RCP 시나리오 중 서로 상반되는 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 기후전망 (2011~2100년) 이 사용되었으며, 토지피복지도는 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 사회ㆍ경제 스토리라인과 로지스틱 회귀모형 (LR)을 이용하여 개발 된 모델에 의해 구축되었다. 기후변화만 고려한 경우, 토지피복변화만 고려한 경우, 기후변화 및 토지피복변화 모두 고려한 경우의 세 가지 시나리오를 설정하고, 각 시나리오에 따른 유출량 및 유사량을 모의한 결과 계절적으로 매우 명확한 변화를 나타내었다. 기후변화는 봄과 겨울에 유출량을 증가시키고 여름과 가을에 유출량을 감소시키는 것으로 나타났으며, 유사량 역시 유출량과 동일한 변화의 양상을 보였다. 토지피복변화는 유출량을 증가시키는 반면 유사량은 감소시키며, 이는 도시화로 인한 불투수 면적의 증가에 의한 것으로 판단된다. 토지피복변화는 기후변화에 비해 유출량에 적은 영향을 끼치나, 기후변화에 의해 초래된 유출량 문제를 더욱 극대화 시킬 수 있다. 따라서 지속적인 수자원 관리를 위하여 기후변화의 잠재적 영향을 파악하고, 토지피복변화에 따른 적절한 수자원 대응 정책 마련이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a socialㆍeconomic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it"s required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

최빈국 지역정부의 기후변화적응계획 수립을 위한 기술적 가이드라인 개발 연구

장훈 ( Hoon Chang ),송영일 ( Young-il Song ),심창섭,문지원,이명주 한국환경정책평가연구원 2016 기후환경정책연구 Vol.2016 No.-

전 세계적으로 기후변화가 가속화됨에 따라 이로 인한 영향과 피해가 더욱 심각해지고 있다. 선진국보다는 최빈국이 기후변화에 의한 위험에 더욱 취약함에 따라 유엔기후변화협약에서 는 최빈국을 대상으로 기후변화로 인한 피해 저감을 위하여 기후변화적응계획 수립을 권고하였다. 유엔개발계획, 유엔기후변화협약 등의 국제기구 혹은 몇몇 국가에서는 기후변화적응계획 수립 가이드라인을 마련하여 최빈국의 적응계획 수립을 지원하고 있으나 현재까지 적응계획의 수립은 저조한 상황이다. 2010년 COP16에서부터 기후변화적응계획 수립을 권고하였으나 48개 최빈국 중 현재까지 다섯 국가에서만 적응계획 수립을 완료하였다. 한편 유엔자본 개발기금5)에서는 최빈국 지자체의 기후변화적응 능력 향상을 위해 LoCAL 프로젝트를 추진하고 있으며, KEI는 국내에서의 기후변화적응계획 수립 노하우를 토대로 동 프로젝트에 기술적 측면의 지원을 하고 있다. 이러한 KEI 지원의 일환으로 본 연구에서는 최빈국 지역정부의 기후변화적응계획 수립을 위한 가이드라인을 개발하고 이를 최빈국 중 하나인 부탄에 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 가이드라인의 세부적인 내용은 다음과 같다. 중앙정부뿐만 아니라 지자체에서도 활용 가능하도록 국내외 기후변화적응계획 수립 관련 가이드라인을 검토하여, 절차별 방법이나 특성을 파악하였다. 그리고 부탄 및 캄보디아와 같은 일부 최빈국을 방문하여 현지 조사를 통해 가이드라인의 개발 방향을 정립하였다. 본 연구에서 제안하고 있는 기후변화적응계획 수립의 절차는 국내 기초지자체의 계획 수립 절차를 참고하였고, 절차별 과학적인 평가 방법은 필요한 자료의 유무나 질을 고려하여 정성적 또는 정량적 측면의 방법을 총 8단계로 나누어 제안하였다. 지역의 일반 현황과 기후변화 현황을 분석하고, RCP 시나리오 기반의 기후변화 전망을 분석하여 향후 기온이나 강수량이 기후변화로 인해 어떻게 변화하는지 예측하는 방법을 제안하였다. 그리고 이해당사자를 대상으로 기후변화적응에 대한 니즈를 파악하여 우선적으로 고려해야 할 사항이 무엇인지 판단하고, 과거 구축된 자료를 바탕으로 기후변화로 인한 재해 및 영향이 무엇인지 분석하는 방안을 제안 하였다. 취약성 평가는 수행 여건에 따라 정량적, 정성적 방법으로 평가될 수 있으며, 리스크는 3회에 걸친 전문가 설문을 통해 정성적인 방법으로 분석하도록 하였다. 이와 같이 분석된 종합적인 평가 결과를 기존의 최빈국 개발사업(investment menu)과 비교하여 적응계획 이행을 위하여 우선적으로 추진해야 할 사업을 선정하고, 체계적인 평가 및 모니터링 전략을 구축하는 등 전반적인 적응계획 수립 및 이행에 걸친 방안을 제안하였다. Due to accelerated climate change, its impacts and devastations are increasing day by day. As developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change compared to developed countries, UNFCCC recommended the development of a climate change adaptation plan in order to reduce their exposure to risks derived by climate change. Since COP 16, 2010, developing countries were encouraged to establish National Adaptation Plans(NAPs). Including UNDP and UNFCCC, many organizations proposed guidelines to assist the development of NAPs. yet only 5 out of 49 countries have officially submitted them. Meanwhile, UNCDF has been supporting the developing countries to foster their climate change adaptation capacities through LoCAL projects, while the Korea Environment Institute(KEI) has been providing technical elements for the projects. In alignment to such activities, this research have employed the guideline for the formation of the adaptation plans for local governments in Bhutan as a pilot program. The guideline is comprised by the study of various climate change adaptation planning guidelines and its attributes of each procedures. As case studies, field missions were carried out in Bhutan and Cambodia to enhance the understanding of the research. In regards of the process on composing the National Adaptation Plans, this research referred to the Korean national adaptation plans of the local governments. In consideration of the availability and quality of statistical information, the scientific procedures has been comprised in eight qualitative and qualitative steps. Through the analysis of the region`s general circumstances, climatic factors and RCP based scenario examinations, this research presents how to estimate the shift of temperature and precipitation altered by climate change. Moreover it raises the necessity of the needs of climate change adaptation to be prioritized through stakeholders and added on to the accumulated data and reviewed in the aspects of climate change disasters. For the vulnerability assessment, depending on the circumstances, both qualitative and quantitative methods may be applied and the risk evaluation will be conducted by three stages of expert surveys. The outcome derived by such methodologies will be assessed with prior LDC investment menus and considered when selecting the priority projects for initiating the adaptation plans.