Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply

Kim Chang-gil,Jeong Hak-kyun,Han Suk-ho,Kim Jeong-seung,Moon Dong-hyun 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-

Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change. Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO). An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative). In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs. Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such fie

Step Free Energy Change and Microstructural Development in BaTiO₃-SiO₂

Chang, Jaem Yung,Kang, Suk Joong L. Trans Tech Publications, Ltd. 2007 Key Engineering Materials Vol.352 No.-

<P>The effect of step free energy on the grain growth behavior in a liquid matrix is studied in a model system BaTiO3-SiO2. BaTiO3-10SiO2 (mole %) powder compacts were sintered at 1280°C under various oxygen partial pressures (PO2), 0.2, ~ 10-17 and ~ 10-24 atm. As the step free energy decreases with the reduction of PO2, it was possible to observe the change in growth behavior with the reduction of the step free energy. At PO2 = 0.2 atm, essentially no grain growth (stagnant grain growth) occurred during sintering up to 50 h. At PO2 ≈ 10-17 atm, abnormal grain growth followed stagnant grain growth during extended sintering (incubation of abnormal grain growth). At PO2 ≈ 10-24 atm, normal grain growth occurred. These changes in growth behavior with PO2 and the step free energy reduction are explained in terms of the change in the critical driving force for appreciable growth relative to the maximum driving force for grain growth. The present experimental results provide an example of microstructure control in solid-liquid two- phase systems via step free energy change.</P>

Dipyridamole 부하 심근 SPECT에서 Dipyridamole의 작용과 부작용

고창순(Chang Soon Koh),이명철(Myung Chul Lee),정준기(June Key Chung),이동수(Dong Soo Lee),최창운(Chang Woon Choi),배상균(Sang Kyun Bae),양형인(Hyung In Yang),여정석(Jeong Suk Yeo) 대한핵의학회 1993 핵의학 분자영상 Vol.27 No.2

N/A Dipyridamole is an agent that may be used to noninvasively evaluate coronary artery disease. The effect of dipyridamole infusion its generally related to its induced peripheral vasodilatory effect. In normal person, heart rate is generally increased slightly while blood pressure decrease, but the achieved double product and related myocardial oxygen consumption have no significant change. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect and side effect of dipyridamole, and to compare different response to dipyridamole among the patients. We evaluated 847 patients who underwent dipyridamole stress myocardial SPECT. 93.6% of them had induced hypotension 0.9% showed no change of blood pressure, 5.5% had increased blood pressure 8.3% had no change of pulse rate more than 10% of basal pulse rate. Among diabetes, 16.9% was not change of pulse rate, 6.7% in non-diabetes. There was no significant correlation between age and rate pressure product rest(RPPr), in patients without perfusion defects on SPECT(y=7.1x+48.4r=0.13 p>0.01). As increasing age, RPPs/RPPr was declined(y=-11.6x+68.9 r=0.17 p〈0.01), similar results were obtained in patients with perfusion defect. The size of perfusion defect on myocardial SPECT have no correlation between RPPr and RPPs/RPPr. The side effects of dipyridamole included chest pain and chest tightness, headache, abdominal pain, dizzness, nausea, and dyspnea. As increasing age, dipyridamole-induced cardiac work at rest was increased, cardiac response to dipyridamole was decreased.

Numerical analysis of flow and bed change at a confluence of the Namhan River and the Seom River using a two-dimensional model

Park Moonhyung,Kim Hyung Suk,Baek Chang Hyun 한국수자원학회 2018 한국수자원학회논문집 Vol.51 No.12

본 연구에서는 4대강 살리기 사업 후 퇴적현상이 지배적으로 발생하는 남한강과 섬강 합류부 구간을 대상으로 2차원 수치모형인 CCHE2D 모형을 이용하여 하천의 흐름 및 하상변동에 대한 해석을 수행하였다. 대상지점 합류부는 남한강 본류의 만곡부에 지류 섬강이 유입되는 특성을 갖는다. CCHE2D 모형은 비평형 유사이송을 해석하며 소류사와 부유사 조정거리가 중요한 입력변수로 대상지점에서는 소류사 조정거리가 하상변동에 가장 큰 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 수치모의 결과 유량비(Qr) 변화가 남한강과 섬강 합류부 지점에서 흐름 및 하상변동에 영향을 미쳤으며, Qr≤ 2.5인 경우에는 합류전 본류의 유속이 증가하여 흐름박리구역을 감소시켰으며 이로 인해 합류부 내측의 퇴적이 감소하였다. Qr>2.5이면 합류부 구간에 퇴적이 증가하여 사주가 형성될 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 수치모의를 통해 2013년에 발생한 유량비 변화에 의해 합류부에 고정사 주가 형성된 것을 알 수 있었다. The flow and bed change were analyzed using the CCHE2D model, which is a two-dimensional numerical model, at a confluence of the Namhan River and Seom River where deposition occurs predominantly after the “Four Major Rivers Restoration Project.” The characteristic of the junction is that the tributary of Seom River joined into the curved channel of the main reach of the Namhan River. The CCHE2D model analyzes the non-equilibrium sediment transport, and the adaptation lengths for the bed load and suspended load are important variables in the model. At the target area, the adaptation length for the bed load showed the greatest influence on the river bed change. Numerical simulation results demonstrated that the discharge ratio (Qr) change affected the flow and bed change in the Namhan River and Seom river junction. When Qr ≤2.5, the flow velocity of the main reach increased before confluence, thereby reducing the flow separation zone and decreasing the deposition inside the junction. When Qr>2.5, there was a high possibility that deposition would be increased, thereby forming sand bar. Numerical simulation showed that a fixed sand bar has been formed at the junction due to the change of discharge ratio, which occurred in 2013.

MODIS 16-Day Albedo 자료를 이용한 동북아시아 지역의 토지피복 별 알베도 변화 분석

박은빈 ( Eun Bin Park ),한경수 ( Kyung Soo Han ),이창석 ( Chang Suk Lee ),피경진 ( Kyung Jin Pi ) 대한원격탐사학회 2012 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.28 No.5

알베도는 지구 복사균형을 이루는 요소 중에서 지표의 에너지 균형에 직접적으로 영향을 주는 인자로 알려져 있다. 이러한 알베도 변화는 토양 수분량, 식생, 태양광의 입사 각도, 적설 등의 변화를 포함하여 지구 복사균형과 그것이 기후와 식생 변화에 미치는 영향력을 이해할 수 있는 결정적인 변수로 작용한다. 따라서 알베도 변화 모니터링은 기후 변화 예측에서 필요한 과정 중 하나이다. 본 연구에서는 동북아시아의 알베도 변화를 관측하기 위하여 2001년부터 2011년의 MODIS Albedo 16-Day 자료를 이용하였다. 연간알베도 변화에서 식생이 활발한 토지피복의 알베도 값이 NIR 밴드에서 높은 알베도 값을 VIS 밴드에서 낮은 알베도 값을 가짐을 확인하였고, 2002년을 기준으로 고비사막 부근과 만주지역의 알베도 값이 변화를 보여 식생 변화 지역으로 사료되어 세부 연구영역으로 선정하였다. 또한 최솟값의 변화로 두 지역 모두 2010년 이후 식생이 악화됨을 감지할 수 있었다. Albedo is known as a factor that directly impacts on the surface energy balance one of the elements of earth radiation balance. The change of albedo includes the change of soil moisture, vegetation, solar zenith angle, snow, and so on. In addition, it operates as a crucial path to understanding feedback mechanisms between radiation balance and its influence on climate and vegetation dynamics and therefore, observing the variation of albedo is a one of the essential procedures for anticipating climate change. In this study, we used MODIS 16-Day composited Albedo data from 2001 to 2011 years with the purpose of observing the change of albedo over Northeast Asia. According to the tendency of albedo for 11 years, albedo in the area of an active vegetation has increased in near-infrared (NIR) domain and decreased in visible (VIS) domain. On the basis of local changes in vegetation in 2002, the both area of the Gobi Desert and the Manchuria was enormously changed and chosen the research area and furthermore, the vegetation of both regions had deteriorated due to the change of the minimum value since 2010.

가강수량의 변화패턴과 기후인자와의 상관성 분석

이다래 ( Darae Lee ),한경수 ( Kyung Soo Han ),권채영 ( Chaeyoung Kwon ),이경상 ( Kyeong Sang Lee ),서민지 ( Minji Seo ),최성원 ( Sungwon Choi ),성노훈 ( Noh Hun Seong ),이창석 ( Chang Suk Lee ) 대한원격탐사학회 2016 大韓遠隔探査學會誌 Vol.32 No.3

수증기는 지구 장파 복사에너지의 주요 흡수인자이다. 따라서 수증기량의 변화를 모니터링하고 변화의 원인을 세밀하게 조사하는 것은 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 위성관측에 의해 얻어지는 Total Precipitable Water (TPW)자료를 사용하여 가강수량의 변화패턴을 모니터링 하고자 한다. 또한 기후인자들 중 수증기를 통해 생성되어 수증기의 변화패턴을 분석하는데 있어 중요한 역할을 하는 강수량과 다른 기후인 자들에 비해 비교적 주기적으로 나타나는 엘니뇨를 통해 가강수량의 변화패턴과 기후인자와의 상관성분석을 실시하고자 한다. 본 연구에서는 TERRA/AQUA 위성의 Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroadiometer (MODIS) 센서를 통해 관측된 TPW의 장기적인 변화와 한반도 중남부지방의 강수량변화를 정량적으로 분석 하고, 이들의 관계를 엘니뇨와 함께 비교하였다. 이를 통해 엘니뇨의 발생이 한반도 중남부지방의 강수량과 TPW의 변화에 영향을 주고 있는 지에 대해 조사하고자 한다. 먼저, 시계열 분석을 통해 TPW와 중남부지방 강수량의 변화를 정량적으로 산출하고 anomaly분석을 통해 이들의 변화를 세밀하게 분석한 결과 서로 반대 의 양상을 띠는 부분이 발견되어 엘니뇨의 anomaly분석결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과 대부분 같은 양상을 띠고 있던 TPW와 강수량이 엘니뇨가 발생한 후 서로 반대의 양상을 띠는 것을 확인하였다. Water vapor is main absorption factor of outgoing longwave radiation. So, it is essential to monitoring the changes in the amount of water vapor and to understanding the causes of such changes. In this study, we monitor temporal variability of Total Precipitable Water (TPW) which observed by satellite. Among climate variables, precipitation play an important part to analyze temporal variability of water vapor because it is produced by water vapor. And El Nino is one of climate variables which appear regularly in comparison with the others. Through them, we analyze relationship between temporal variability of TPW and climate variable. In this study, we analyzed long-term change of TPW from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroadiometer (MODIS) data and change of precipitation in middle area of Korea peninsula quantitatively. After these analysis, we compared relation of TPW and precipitation with El Nino. The aim of study is to research El Nino has an impact on TPW and precipitation change in middle area of Korea peninsula. First of all, we calculated TPW and precipitation from time series analysis quantitatively, and anomaly analysis is performed to analyze their correlation. As a result, TPW and precipitation has correlation mostly but the part had inverse correlation was found. This was compared with El Nino of anomaly results. As a result, TPW and precipitation had inverse correlation after El Nino occurred. It was found that El Nino have a decisive effect on change of TPW and precipitation.

老化過程에서 흰쥐 滑車神經의 軸索의 數 및 直徑의 變化

최영수,엄창섭,서영석 최신의학사 1987 最新醫學 Vol.30 No.8

임신 및 출산후 흰쥐 자궁의 Catecholamine 형광물질의 변화에 관한 연구

승경록,서영석,엄창섭 고려대학교 의과대학 1991 고려대 의대 잡지 Vol.28 No.1

This study was undertaken to investigate the pattern of distribution of adrenergic nerves in normal virgin, and the relatioships between the functions of adrenergic nerve and the female sex hormones changed peculiarly during pregnancy and post partum as previously reported by many authors. The reproductive organs were fixed in mixture of 4% formaldehyde and 0.5% glutaraldehyde and processed for fluorescent microscopy to show the catecholamine concentrations in nulliparous, pregnant(5, 10, 15 and 20 days), puerpheral(3, 7 and 15 days),and primiparous (30 to 45 days after parturition) rats. The result obtained in this investigation are summarized as followings. 1. In virgin uteri, catecholamine-fluorescence was visible intensely in the wall of vessels and their surrounding connective tissue and less intensely in myometrium than the vessels in all regions of reproductive tract. The intensity of fluorescence was higher In uterine cervix and tubal end of uterine horn than the main part of uterine horn. 2. In the pregnant uteri, the intensities of fluorescence did not changed at 5 days of pregnancy, but decreased gradually from 10 days to 15 days of pregnancy, and disappeared atmost completely in myometrium and small vessels except some of large vessels in perimetrium during the late pregnancy. 3. In lactating rats after parturition, the fluorescence was increased rapidly and almost completely restored by 15 days after parturition. 4. In the parous uteri at more than 30 days after parturition, the fluorescence showed slightly more intense than that in the nulliparous uteri. The above findings suggest that the alterations of catecholamine-fluorescence are much removed from the peculiar characteristic changes of the female sex hormonal levels during pregnancy and post partum. It is concluded that the alterations of catecholamine-fluorescence closely relate with the quantitative changes of uterine tissue during pregnancy and post partum, and having the experience of pregnancy and parturition, the uterus attain to maturity.

자폐아동의 기본운동교육프로그램 참가가 지각운동능력발달에 미치는 영향

이창섭,이명휘,현광석,이창규,조병준 한국특수체육학회 2003 한국특수체육학회지 Vol.11 No.1

The purpose of this study was to examine how the program of basic movement can influence and change the capability of perceptive movement among the children with autism. Four subjects (age3-5) participated in the specially designed program, three times a week for four weeks. For the purpose of this study, Oseretsky's Motor Development Test and PMDT(perception-Movement development Diagnosis Test) were used. The results were as follows; First, the upper limb performance of the children with autism showed significant changes by the movement education program. Second, along with the development of upper limb performance, the motor development index of the children with autism showed significant changes. Third, the Oseretsky spectrum of movement, of the children with autism responded to the order of mono-movement capability, hand-movement and co-operative movement. Fourth, the movement education program was more effective for the children with autism than for the retarded children in view of motor development capability. Fifth, the movement education program was more effective for the child with autism of multi-movement characteristics.

방사선조사가 Porphyromonas gingivalis에 미치는 영향

이창환,김규태,최용석,황의환 대한구강악안면방사선학회 2008 Imaging Science in Dentistry Vol.38 No.1

Purpose : The aim of this study was to observe a direct effect of irradiation on the periodontopathic Porphyromonas gingivalis (P. gingivalis). Materials and Methods : P. gingivalis 2561 was exposed to irradiation with a single absorbed dose of 10, 20, 30, and 40 Gy. Changes in viability and antibiotic sensitivity, morphology, transcription, and protein profile of the bacterium after irradiation were examined by pour plating method, disc diffusion method, transmission electron microscopy, RT-PCR, and immunoblot, respectively. Results : Viability of irradiated P. gingivalis drastically reduced as irradiation dose was increased. Irradiated P. gingivalis was found to have become more sensitive to antibiotics as radiation dose was increased. With observation under the transmission electron microscope, the number of morphologically abnormal cells was increased with increasing of irradiation dose. In RT-PCR, decrease in the expression of fimA and sod was observed in irradiated P. gingivalis. In immunoblot, change of profile in irradiated P. gingivalis was found in a number of proteins including 43-kDa fimbrillin. Conclusion : These results suggest that irradiation may affect the cell integrity of P. gingivalis, which is manifested by the change in cell morphology and antibiotic sensitivity, affecting viability of the bacterium.