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고추 역병 방제시기 결정을 위한 PBcast 예측모델 타당성 포장 평가
안문일(Mun-Il Ahn),도기석(Ki Seok Do),이경희(Kyeong Hee Lee),윤성철(Sung Chul Yun),박은우(Eun Woo Park) 한국식물병리학회 2020 식물병연구 Vol.26 No.4
고추 역병의 감염위험도 예측모델인 PBcast 포장검증 연구를2012-2013년 동안 수행하였다. 그리고 2014-2017년 동안 우리나라 26개 지점에서 PBcast 모델을 이용하여 발병환경을 평가하였다. PBcast 모델은 기상과 토성자료를 이용하여 Phytophthora capsici의 일일 감염위험도를 추정한다. 시험포장에서 7일 간격으로 살균제를 살포하는 정기방제(RTN7) 처리, 예측된 감염위험도가 200 이상(IR200), 224 이상(IR224)일 때 살포하는 예찰방제 처리, 무방제(CTRL) 처리를 발병주율과 살균제 살포횟수로 비교하였다. 2012년에 감염위험도가 200 이상이 2회였지만, 224 이상인 경우는 없었다. 2013년은 200이상 3회, 224 이상 1회였다. RTN7 처리구는 2012년과 2013년에 17회, 18회 살포하였다. 우리나라의 기상조건은 고추 역병 발생에 유리하였고 방제의사결정에 PBcast 예측 정보를 활용할 경우 살포횟수를 3‒4회 감소시킬 수 있다. 결과적으로 PBcast 모델은 고추 역병으로부터보호를 위해 병방제 효과의 감소없이 살균제 살포횟수를 줄일수 있을 것으로 생각된다. Field validation of PBcast, an infection risk model for Phytophthora blight of pepper, was conducted through a designed field experiment in 2012 and 2013. Conduciveness of weather conditions at 26 locations in Korea in 2014-2017 was also evaluated using PBcast. The PBcast estimated daily infection risk (IR) of Phytophthora capsici based on weather and soil texture data. In the designed filed experiment, four treatments including routine sprays at 7-day intervals (RTN7), forecast-based sprays when IR reached 200 (IR200) and 224 (IR224), and no spray (CTRL) were compared in terms of disease incidence and number of sprays recommended for disease control. In 2012, IR had reached over 200 twice, but never reached 224. In 2013, IR had reached over 200 three times and once higher than 224. The RTN7 plots were sprayed 17 and 18 times in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Weather conditions throughout the country were generally conducive for Phytophthora blight and 3-4 times of fungicide sprays would have been reduced if the PBcast forecast information was adopted in the decision-making for fungicide sprays. In conclusion, the PBcast forecast would be useful to reduce fungicide applications without losing the disease control efficacy to protect pepper crop from Phytophthora blight.
박주현 ( Ju Hyun Park ),김성기 ( Seong Kee Kim ),신용순 ( Yong Soon Shin ),안문일 ( Mun Il Ahn ),한용규 ( Yong Kyu Han ) 한국농림기상학회 2014 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.16 No.4
This technical note describes about the base stages of technology implementation for establishing “Early Warning System for Weather Hazard Management in Climate-smart Agriculture” to national onsite service. First of all, a special weather report service at catchment was represented sequential risk of 810 units of catchment by spatial statistical methods to existing 150 counties units special weather report released in KMA. The second, chronic hazard alarm service based on daily data of 76 Synoptic stations was monitor about 810 Catchment of mid-long term lapse weather and represented as a relative risk index chronic hazard risk of this time in preparation for the climatological normal conditions in the same period. Finally, we establish the foundation for delivering individually calculated field specific in hazard risk about volunteer farmer of early warning service demonstration area in seomjin downstream watershed. These three types of information were built a near real-time map service on the VWORLD background map of Ministry of Land as superposed layers nationwide catchment and demonstration areas within the farm unit weather hazard.