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A1B 기후변화 시나리오가 국내 가을 쌀보리의 잠재수량에 미치는 영향 모사
심교문 ( Kyo Moon Shim ),민성현 ( Sung Hyun Min ),이덕배 ( Deog Bae Lee ),김건엽 ( Gun Yeob Kim ),정현철 ( Hyun Cheol Jeong ),이슬비 ( Seul Bi Lee ),강기경 ( Ki Keong Kang ) 한국농림기상학회 2011 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.13 No.4
The CERES-Barley crop simulation model was used to assess the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of winter naked barley in Korea. Fifty six sites over the southern part of the Korean Peninsula were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic conditions. Based on the A1B climate change scenarios of Korea, the present climatological normal (1971-2000) and the three future ones (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were considered in this study. The three future normals were divided by three environmental conditions with changes in: (1) temperature only, (2) carbon dioxide concentration only, and (3) both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The agreement between the observed and simulated outcomes was reasonable with the coefficient of determination of grain yield to be 0.78. We concluded that the CERES-Barley model was suitable for predicting climate change impacts on the potential yield of winter naked barley. The effect of the increased temperature only with the climate change scenario was negative to the potential yield of winter naked barley, which ranges from -34 to -9% for the three future normals. However, the effect of the elevated carbon dioxide concentration only on the potential yield of winter naked barley was positive, ranging from 6 to 31% for the three future normals. For the elevated conditions of both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, the potential yields increased by 8, 15, and 13% for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 normals, respectively.
심교문 ( Kyo-moon Shim ),김용석 ( Yongseok Kim ),허지나 ( Jina Hur ),조세라 ( Sera Jo ),강기경 ( Kee-kyung Kang ) 한국농림기상학회 2020 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.22 No.4
본 논문에서는 1991년 이후 중간 강도 이상의 엘니뇨가 발생한 해의 고랭지배추의 단위면적당 생산량의 변화를 비교 분석하였다. 엘니뇨가 발생한 해 (n=12)의 고랭지배추의 전국 평균 생산량 (3,444±384kg 10a<sup>-1</sup>)은 미 발생한 해 (n=14)의 생산량 (3,722±277kg 10a<sup>-1</sup>)보다 적었으며, 통계적으로도 유의하였다(t=2.140, p=0.042). 또한, 엘니뇨가 종료한 해의 고랭지배추의 전국 평균 생산량은 엘니뇨가 시작한 해와 엘니뇨가 미 발생한 해보다 낮은 경향을 보였고, 이 또한 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 분석되었다(df=2, f=3.874, p=0.035). 이것은 고랭지 배추 재배기간의 저온, 일조부족, 강수량 증가 현상이 1차적 원인으로 사료되나, 앞으로 엘니뇨 발생에 따른 악기상 등 각종 농업환경 변화와 고랭지배추의 생산성의 관계 등 추가 연구가 필요하다. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of El Nino on highland kimchi cabbage production for the period from 1991-2016 in South Korea. Years with less than 1.0 Oceanic Nino index (ONI) were classified into non El Nino years, while years with equal to or greater than 1.0 ONI were defined as El Nino years. The national average production (3,444 ㎏ 10a<sup>-1</sup>) of high kimchi cabbage in El Nino years tended to be less than that in non El Nino years (3,722 kg 10a<sup>-1</sup>) with significant differences (p = 0.0042) in the production between these groups of years. The averaged production of highland kimchi cabbage of El Nino end years (3,289 ㎏ 10a<sup>-1</sup>) was less than those of El Nino start years and non El Nino years by 310 and 433 ㎏ 10a<sup>-1</sup>, respectively. Such difference was significant statistically (p=0.035). According to our analysis, the differences in kimchi cabbage productions resulted from low temperature, short sunshine duration, and precipitation increase during the cultivation period of highland kimchi cabbage. This study may help for further analysis on the impact of extreme weather conditions during El Nino years on crop production.
MT-CLIM 프로그램을 이용한 일별 일사량 추정의 국내 적용성 검토
심교문 ( Kyo Moon Shim ),김용석 ( Yong Seok Kim ),이덕배 ( Deog Bae Lee ),강기경 ( Ki Keong Kang ),소규호 ( Kyo Ho So ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.4
Accuracy of daily solar radiation estimated from a Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model (MTCLIM) was assessed for seven observation sites with complex topography in Uiseong County. The coefficient of determination (R2) between the observed and the estimated daily solar radiation was 0.52 for 7 sites for the study period from 1 August to 30 September 2009. Overall, the MT-CLIM overestimated the solar radiation with root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.83MJ m-2 which is about 25% of the mean daily solar radiation (15.27MJ m-2) for the study period. Considering that the pyranometer`s tolerance is ±5% of standard sensor, the RMSE of MT-CLIM was too large to accept for a direct application for agricultural sector. The reliability of solar radiation estimated by MTCLIM must be improved by considering additional ways such as using a topography correction coefficient.
최근의 기상환경 변화에 따른 가을보리의 수량구성요소 및 생육단계 변화
심교문(Kyo Moon Shim),윤성호(Seong Ho Yun),정영상(Yeong Sang Jung),이정택(Jeong Taek Lee),황규홍(Kyu Hong Hwang) 한국농림기상학회 2002 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.4 No.1
This study examines the relationships between atmospheric influences and grain yields including yield components as well as growth stages. Data used in this study were collected from the long-term field experiment at Suwon for the period between 1974 and 2000. Mean grain yield of barley cultivar, Olbori, for the recent 14 years(1987~2000) with warm winters was higher by 0.42 ton per hectare than that for 27 years(1974~2000) at Suwon as a result of the higher numbers of spikes per unit land area and grains per spike. However, the 1000-grain weight decreased by about 0.6 gram. Mean first day of regrowth for the recent 14 years was earlier by five days than that for 27 years. Also, beginning date of regrowth was positively correlated with that of heading and ripening. Mean period of ripening for the years of 1987 through 2000 was similar to that for 27 years, but mean period of overwintering was shorter by nine days than that for 27 years. On the other hand, mean periods of seedling and tillering were longer by three days than those for 27 years. Meteorological elements at various growth stages affecting grain yield of winter barley were air temperature (positive correlation) and sunshine hour (negative correlation) of overwintering stage, precipitation (negative correlation) of tillering stage, and potential evapotranpiration (positive correlation) of tillering stage. The 1000-grain weight was not significantly correlated with the meteorological elements. Culm length was negatively influenced by high temperature and dry weather situations during the ripening period, but spike length was positively influenced. Overall, it was found that grain yield of barley, cultivar Olbori, was influenced by meteorological elements of overwintering, tillering, and ripening stages.
방풍망 설치 과수원의 강풍피해 저감효과의 기상학적 분석
심교문 ( Kyo Moon Shim ),김민석 ( Min Seok Kim ),김용석 ( Yong Seok Kim ),정명표 ( Myung Pyo Jung ),황해 ( Hae Hwang ),김석철 ( Seok Cheal Kim ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.4
본 연구는 방풍망이 설치된 사과원 주변에 자동기상관측장비를 설치하고, 이로부터 수집한 온·습도와 풍속 등 기상 관측자료를 분석하여, 방풍망을 설치한 사과원 내부의 풍속저감 효과와 군락미기상의 변화 등의 기상학적 특성을 평가하고자 수행하였다. 2012년 10월 26일부터 2013년 10월 21일까지 약 1년간 수집한 기상자료를 토대로 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 방풍망 내부의 일평균기온은 외부보다 0.1~0.2oC 낮았고, (2) 방풍망 내부의 일평균습도는 외부보다 0.7~1.7%범위로 높았으며, (3) 북풍계열 바람의 방풍망 내부의 일최대풍속은 외부보다 2m와 4m의 높이에서 각각 0.7~1.5ms-1(30.4~65.2%)와 0.3~0.7ms-1(10.3~24.1%) 범위로 감풍되는 것으로 조사되었다. In this study, the installation effects of a windbreak net on reducing wind speed were examined using meteorological observation data. Three automatic weather systems (AWS) were installed at the inside of the windbreak net of an apple orchard along the distance, and one AWS was located at the outside. They were set up on Oct. 25th, 2012 at the apple orchard of Geochang County, and meteorological data, which were observed at four stations for about 1 year from October 26, 2012 through October 21, 2013, were used for this study. Meteorological variables include air temperature & relative humidity at a height of 1.5 meter, and wind speed & wind direction at a height of 2 meter and 4 meter. These variables were measured and recorded every 60 seconds. The preliminary results of this study was as follows: (1) Daily mean temperature at the inside of the windbreak net was lower than that of the outside by 0.1 through 0.2oC. (2) Daily mean relative humidity at the inside of the windbreak net was higher than that of the outside by 0.7 through 1.7%. (3) As compared to the outside, northerly daily maximum wind speed of the inside of the windbreak net at a height of 2 and 4 meter was reduced by 0.7~1.5 ms-1 (30.4~65.2%) and 0.3~0.7 ms-1 (10.3~24.1%), respectively.
심교문(Kyo-Moon Shim),정지선(Ji-Sun Jeong),소규호(Kyu-Ho So),임송택(Song-Tak Lim),노기안(Kee-An Roh),김건엽(Gun-Yeob Kim),정현철(Hyun-Cheol Jeong),이덕배(Deog-Bae Lee) 한국토양비료학회 2010 한국토양비료학회지 Vol.43 No.2
전 세계적으로 지구온난화의 원인인 대기 중 온실가스 농도를 감축하는 여러 정책들이 모든 산업을 망라하여 추진되고 있다. 식량안보라는 특수성은 있지만, 농업도 예외는 아니다. 이런 취지에서 최근에 농산물의 전체 생산과정에서 발생하는 탄소배출량을 산정하고, 이를 토대로 탄소배출량이 적은 농산물 생산방식을 도입하고자하는 요구가 증가하고 있다. LCA 도구를 농업분야의 환경평가에 적용한 해외 연구 사례들을 살펴보면, 스위스는 Ecoinvent가 주축이 되어 농작물, 농업기반시설, 농자재, 농기계 등 농축산 전반에 대한 LCI D/B를 구축하여 제공하고 있고, 우리와 농업시스템이 유사한 일본은 산업연관분석을 이용하여 농업을 위한 Top-down 방식의 LCA 수행 방법론을 개발하였으며, 이를 농작물생산 방식에 따라 평가하고 농업분야에 대한 영향평가 방법론과 가중치를 개발하였다. 반면에 국내의 LCA를 통한 농업환경영향평가는 출발 단계에 있다. 따라서 농업환경에 있어 주요 인자인 비료 및 농약에 대한 환경영향을 평가하고 이를 위한 국내 비료와 농약의 흐름 모델링, 방법론 개발이 요구되며, 국내 농업 시스템을 반영한 기타 농자재, 농기계 및 농업기반시설에 대한 환경영향평가 역시 수행되어야 한다. Many policies have been implemented to mitigate the greenhouse gases in atmosphere overall of sectors. With considering the distinct characteristics of the food security, agricultural sector is no exception to this situation. To this regard, total amount of carbon which is emitted through all of the agricultural production process is calculated, and being based on this result, the demand for the introduction of agricultural production system with low carbon has been rising. Case studies on the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) technique to agricultural sector are found in many countries. For example, life cycle inventory (LCI) data bases of crop, farm infrastructure, fertilizer, farm machinery, and etc., have been constructed and provided by Ecoinvent (Swiss centre for life cycle inventories) of Swiss. In Japan, Top-down typed LCA methodology for agriculture is developed based on the inter-industry analysis, and is evaluated according to the productive method of crop. On the other hand, environmental impact assessment of agricultural system using LCA in Korea is just in the beginning stages. So it is required to assess environmental impact on agricultural fertilizer and pesticide, and to develop their flow modeling, and methodology of LCA of agricultural sector. Environmental impact assessment on agricultural materials, machinery, and infrastructure will also be carried out.
심교문(Kyo Moon Shim),김건엽(Gun Yeob Kim),정현철(Hyun Cheol Jeong),이정택(Jeong Taek Lee) 한국생물환경조절학회 2008 한국생물환경조절학회 학술발표논문집 Vol.17 No.1
최근의 지구온난화(기후변화)가 한반도 농업환경에 미칠 영향은 다음과 같다. 첫째로, 농작물의 재배지대가 변화할 것으로 전망된다. 현재 사과주산지가 북쪽으로 이동하고 있으며, 한반도 사과 “후지”의 재배면적은 기온 3℃ 상승 시 45% 감소하는 것으로 예측되었고, 기온상승에 따른 준ㆍ고랭지 작물 재배면적 감소로 고랭지 채소의 안정공급 차질이 우려된다. 반면에, 맥류 안전재배지역은 크게 북상하여 쌀보리의 경우 충청이남에서 경기중부까지 재배가 가능하고, 북한에서도 맥류 이모작이 가능해짐에 따라 농업생산성 향상효과가 기대된다. 둘째로, 월동환경 변화에 따른 병해충 재해 증가가 우려된다. 따뜻한 겨울 지속으로 월동해충 증가와 토착화에 따른 병해충 피해발생이 급증하고, 전염성이 강한 병원균의 빠른 확산에 따른 피해규모가 급증하고 있다. 최근에(2007년), 벼 줄무늬잎마름병과 갈색여치가 다발생하여 농작물에 큰 피해를 주었다. 셋째로, 작물 수량 및 품질 영향에 따른 생산성 변화가 전망된다. 기온이 5 ℃ 상승시 쌀 수량은 약 15% 정도 감소될 것으로 전망되었고, 사과는 수량이 감소하고, 당도가 저하되는 등 품질이 저하되는 것으로 예측되었으며, 고추, 토마토 등 채소작물도 생육이 지연되고 수량이 감소하는 것으로 예측되었다. 이와 같은 농업환경 영향에 대한 적응방안으로는 작물별 안정생산을 위한 기후변화 적응기술 개발이 요구되고, 돌발 병해충 및 잡초 발생 예찰 시스템 개발 및 피해예방 대책 수립이 필요하다. 그리고 난지과수의 지역별 적응품종을 선발 및 육성하고 중남부 지역의 사과 배 등 온대과수의 대체효과를 구명하며, 난지지역의 열대성 과일의 적응성 검토가 필요하다. 마지막으로 인프라구축 분야로서, 기상재해 및 병해충 종합방제 조기 대응을 위한 농업인 지원 시스템이 구축되어 온난화 환경에 따른 농업생산의 피해 최소화 및 안정화 확보가 요구된다.