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송민섭(Min Sup Song) 한국경영학회 2008 經營學硏究 Vol.37 No.6
This paper examines the effect of quarterly earnings announcements on analysts` forecast revisions and their accuracy. In 2000, new regulation of the financial markets in Korea began requiring firms to disclosure quarterly accounting reports. If quarterly earnings announcements provide additional information and analysts use those information to form their new forecast, there should be difference in forecast properties around earnings announcements. Empirical results show a significant increase in the number of analyst forecast revisions following the earnings announcements. Results also show that forecasts issued immediately after the earnings announcement are revised by large magnitude and are more accurate. However, revisions issued relatively long after earnings announcements have indifferent forecast accuracy from forecast revisions immediately after the announcements. These results suggest that quarterly announcements provide predictive information about future earnings, and new information contained in earnings announcements are more likely reflected by those forecast issued immediately after earnings announcements.
송민섭(Min Sup Song),변상혁(Sang Hyuk Byun) 한국경영학회 2013 經營學硏究 Vol.42 No.5
Press indicates that optimistic bias in information intermediaries such as analysts is one of the major causes for 2008 financial crisis. The objective of this study is to examine whether and how analysts change their forecasting behaviors around 2008 financial crisis to investigate the role of analysts in capital market during 2008 financial crisis. More specifically, we examine how analysts revise their stock recommendations and earnings forecasts around 2008 financial crisis. We also examine the change in investors` reactions to analysts` earnings forecast revisions around 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results show that analysts tend to simply reiterate their existing forecasts or do not issue forecasts during 2008 financial crisis. Relatively small number of analysts revised their stock recommendations and earnings forecasts during financial crisis. Because of these behaviors,overall analyst forecasts and recommendations become optimistically biased. In addition, we find insignificant earnings response coefficient on analysts` upward earnings revisions during financial crisis period, while we find stronger market reaction to downward revisions. Our empirical results suggest that analysts play the limited role as information intermediaries during 2008 financial crisis. In addition, investors tend to discount information content of analyst forecasts if forecasts are inconsistent with stock market condition. Our evidence helps investors and regulators and investors in assessing value of analyst forecasts and need for new regulation.
송민섭(Min-sup Song),강선예(Sun-ye Kang),박준수(June-soo Park),손갑헌(Gap-heon Sohn) 대한기계학회 2008 대한기계학회 춘추학술대회 Vol.2008 No.11
DMWs are common feature of the PWR in the welded connections between carbon steel and stainless steel piping. The nickel-based weld metal, Alloy 82/182, is used for welding the dissimilar metals and is known to be susceptible to PWSCC. A round-robin program has been implemented to benchmark the numerical simulation of the transient temperature and weld residual stresses in the DMWs. To solve the round-robin problem related to Pressurizer Safety & Relief nozzle, the thermal elasto-plastic analysis is performed in the DMW by using the FEM. The welding includes both the DMW of the nozzle to safe-end and the SMW of the safe-end and piping. Major results of the analyses are discussed: The axial and circumferential residual stresses are found to be -88㎫(225㎫) and -38㎫(293㎫) on the inner surface of the DMW; where the values in parenthesis are the residual stresses after the DMW. Thermo-mechanical interaction by the SMW has a significant effect on the residual stress fields in the DMW.